great explanations..along those lines sealing the race track what does that all entail? seems when they do seal front speed is good
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The idea is to seal the track to limit the amount of water that gets through as they try to control the moisture in and on top of the subsurface, otherwise known as the "base" area. They cannot prevent mud in the 4-4 1/2" cushion but the less that works its way into the base area where the limestone, etc. is, the better off they will be. This is especially true where temperatures vary dramatically.
Speed does seem to have an overall edge when it is sealed. Why? Well, probably several different scenarios to deal with. So in no particular order here are some off the top of my head:
1. If the rain came prior to the 1st race, chances are the track was graded either the night before or from 10:30AM until about 12PM. And because they were anticipating wet weather, the fresh grading could have something to do with the inside being the place to be. Not always, but certainly sometimes.
2. Often times when it is a sloppy track, the field size is smaller. You never know who will have to scratch because of the off track but it always seemed to me that I would see a lot more solo speed on sloppy days. Seem like that to you? We all know that solo speed will carry further than dueling speed on average so that could have plenty to do with it if that applies.
3. It is more difficult to run into slop and mud than it is the spray from the fine dirt that flies back. While dirt does get into the horses eyes to some degree, the mud is more of a problem. It does not blind them but it has to be a distraction. I asked jocks about this and they mostly said that while they could not say for sure, often enough their mount " just didn't fire the way it might otherwise had" which I took to mean that something kept them at about 80% that day and the mud, be it from the spray back , or footing or something kept them from showing their best that day.
4. Footing separates horses that "like" the mud from those that do not. It's all about the horse trusting the footing. If they trust a surface, they love that surface and if they do not, they will not stride out as far as they are apprehensive to do so. Obviously, that makes them slower.
5. I had plenty of riders that won wire to wire in slop come back and say that the horse was running scared and could have gone around again. What they meant was that the smacking sound when the hit the slop with their feet echoes and is pretty loud. The front runner can here not only their own feet but those behind them. So they run scared, kind of like the cops are coming , (I guess. I wouldn't know anything about that. Lol.) That adrenaline rush seems to give some front runners more energy.
6. Jockeys typically carry 2-3 sets of goggles for a dry dirt race depending on the distance. In the slop they use 3-4 and sometimes more depending on the distance . That extra distraction for the rider getting blinded about every 15-20 seconds and having to pull down the dirty pair to see adds up. It's a little thing. It does not cost them lengths but it has to cost them something and we have all been beaten by
" something "less than a length. It's rarely the BIG things that beat you, it's usually the little things in horse racing as well as other sports right?. Watch a race sometime and only watch the horse on the inside behind the front runners. Watch for the jockey to pull down a set of goggles to their neck area from their eyes so he/she can see. It takes 2-3 strides to do this and those can add up over the course of a race especially if they have more than 2 sets to pull.
I guess there are a few more but you can see that there are enough smaller reasons that if any applied, it would make a difference .
The lone exception though is if there was an obvious dead rail that was dry and wet weather was coming during the card, and they seal the track mid way through, if speed hangs on, chances are the rider is out in the 3-4-5 path and off the dead rail. But when you think about the mindset of the maintenance crew wanting to keep the dirt on the track and out of the sewer area, chances are that scenario is rare. The tracks pay a weather service for extremely accurate weather forecasts. The idea is for a storm to never surprise anyone. Well, of course nobody is perfect when it come to weather, but they have a solid handle on it as a rule and are usually ahead of impending weather.
Hope that makes sense.Comment -
Happy Thanksgiving everybody !Comment -
hey str..
found this article in the paulick report and had a few questions..
when the son says "this is pretty much what we do now" is he referring to buying yearlings and trying to resell as 2yo's with a little (hopefully positive) race experience? is that pinhooking ?
seems like this was a good $40k purchase..how much you think a horse like this could fetch ?
” Prado said. “I think he was only running at 70 percent. He's still mentally learning and he's just going to get better.”
that's a genuine comment when coming from edgar prado
who is a hall of fame jockey ..also someone with maryland roots who i know you have a lot of respect forLast edited by JBEX; 12-03-19, 07:09 AM.Comment -
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Q. when the son says "this is pretty much what we do now" is he referring to buying yearlings and trying to resell as 2yo's with a little (hopefully positive) race experience?hey str..
found this article in the paulick report and had a few questions..
when the son says "this is pretty much what we do now" is he referring to buying yearlings and trying to resell as 2yo's with a little (hopefully positive) race experience? is that pinhooking ?
seems like this was a good $40k purchase..how much you think a horse like this could fetch ?
” Prado said. “I think he was only running at 70 percent. He's still mentally learning and he's just going to get better.”
that's a genuine comment when coming from edgar prado
who is a hall of fame jockey ..also someone with maryland roots who i know you have a lot of respect for
A. Yes. That seems to be what they are aiming for.
Q. is that pinhooking ?
A. Kind of but no. Pinhooking is buying weanlings and selling them as yearlings or and more specifically, buying yearlings and reselling them as unraced 2 year olds in training like the Ocala 2 year old sale, Timonium 2 year old sale known as the Fasig Tipton Mid Atlantic 2 year olds in training sale, etc. It is a big business. Some big name people and big time money goes into that. Yet another form of gambling within horse racing that does not involve betting at the windows.
Q. seems like this was a good $40k purchase..how much you think a horse like this could fetch ?
A. There is always crazy money around this time of year trying to find Derby horses. People offer stupid amounts between now and May. Anything is possible and depending on the breeding, conformation, Edgars comments, and figures/numbers or speed figs, it can range wildly.
Yeah, Edgar is a good old friend and a great person. I'm sure he knows what he is talking about when he talks about this horse.
In the race you provided, the horse did look a bit green mentally but what stood out was, he was push button. He was asked several different times throughout the race and responded well every time. Ran well inside, outside, everywhere. He has a chance to be pretty decent.
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Dec 14th
gulf r2 #1
80k invested
What do you think
top offer , 1.75 mil outright
$5OOk 20% sire , 20% ownershipComment -
Hi Kid,
All this typically is predicated on the need for money. You cannot be stupid when it comes to life changing money. But sadly, many more people are than are not when it comes to young horses. I've seen it too many times to tell the stories.
But in this case, I see the owner or co- owner is Brett Fernung. Don't know him but I knew his older brother John who was all in with the Dan Lasater deals back when I was an asst. trainer and just starting out. That name was HUGE back then. And I mean HUGE. That family has been in the breeding business successfully for over 40 years. They soon got with Lynn Whiting who was a dear friend to me when I was at Laurel and training 48 horses for my boss as the "off track" barn in 75 and early 76. Back then, Lynn shipped into Laurel every fall and wintered there as well. When Whiteley shipped out, Lynn came into the barn next door. So we would stand at the 3/8ths pole gap during training hours. Lynn was so friendly and actually helped push me over the edge to breakout on my own. He helped give me the confidence I was searching for. I will never forget that. Rest in Peace Lynn. Helluva guy.
Anyway, I doubt the money would be the sole motivation to sell but you never know.
With all that said, I would assume they would want to retain portions for breeding as well as racing but if they are in the business of selling portions of nice horses, the rule of thumb is do NOT pick and choose with your business. RUN your business. What I mean is, it's not how you do on any one horse, or in my business one house, it's how you do on 10 of them. The average spread over ten and time will give you your true profit margins.
Have a plan and stick to it.
Horses as you well know can be so damn unpredictable that no matter how smart you are, they can make you look real dumb real quick. Or, smart as hell. The best way to offset that level of chance is to do the same thing everytime. Sell portions and keep portions, if you can afford it. If you can't, than you should sell everytime.
You have to play the game to the level you can afford or the game will play you.My guess is they sell portions and retain portions being as they are deep into the breeding business.
If it was me? I would try and find 2 or 3 more of the 500k 20% sire , 20% ownership. That would give me 1.5 or 2.0 and still retain 40 or 20%. I would do this before he ran back. One stumble, flipped palate, or bad step and it's all gone. It's already to the point where you are risking all of it to gain maybe 30% more. That's 3-10 or 1-5 odds. And I think you know how I feel about 1-5 odds. Yep, death valley.
All the best Kid !Last edited by str; 12-20-19, 10:23 AM.Comment -
Str,
i hope to be half of what you are
man merry Christmas to you and yours
and thank you so much for helping me mature and grow
I cannot say enough about you
hopefully I get lucky enough to toast you in real life
loveComment -
Str,
You gotta find A few hours for me to take you out
sir , you wisdom I need more it
I do pretty well on my own
but I think your , actually I know your the most influential handle on the site
I would be forever in your debtComment -
Merry Christmas to you as well Kid. Hope all is well. Really appreciate the kind words but as I've said before, we help one another here. I really appreciate those that post within this thread as well as those that prefer to just read along.
If you ever venture down to Laurel for a day at the races, let me know. With an luck I can meet you there and show you around.
All the best and keep up the good work.Comment -
For you to recognize me
It touches me
it kinda confirms I know I have talent
it’s just so special that you take the time
and I’d be absolutely honored to have a meal at Laurel
lol but who we kidding , I want you handicapp for me during
much love and all respect
thank you for everythingComment -
And in other news, Santa Anita has already delayed it's opening day. Normally the track opens on Dec 26th, the day after Christmas, but the opening has now been pushed back until 12/28. 11 race card featuring 7 Stakes events. I really have my doubts as to whether the track lasts the entire season or not. The Governor and State Legislature are really opposed to racing in California as a whole, and at Santa Anita specifically. I can't believe that they will get a quality core of Jockey's there. The old timers like Mike Smith will ride when they want to. Rosario and Castillano will start the season there.Comment -
I can’t speak on that daddy
i will say you have matured as a person
hope I rubbed off some of that on you
I can’t speak about Stronach
cuz str lived it
I’m obv not a fan
all that money
I don’t think they put a dollar into the track since 1929
—-lol on a side note
joel Rosario is the Amari cooper of jockeys
if you know me you know what I mean
str super sorry for clogging your threadComment -
Merry Christmas everyone !Comment -
merry christmas to you str and no rush on this..just interested in your opinion on the claiming n2l condition..horses who show some life vs allowance and connections finally accept it ain't going to happen at this level after multiple tries..only problem with this is its kinda obvious even with the so so efforts vs alw horses..how about horses who win vs maiden claiming and are placed at around the same tag or higher (guess that's rare)vs n2l ?? obviously who's calling the shots and riding obviously important as well as how the horse broke his maiden.. what do you think of this in general as far as the horse's capability to get it done first shot..feel there's more value with this than the allowance drop downsComment -
There will be more value if value is higher odds. That is typically the case. Obviously, how the horse won, who it beat and if it was a key race, or not at all, and all the other circumstances involved, like the trip, 1st time blks. winner, 1st lasix winner, with or against a bias if you feel one existed, etc. are ALL factors that need to be scrutinized as you go over each horse.
If a horse has run 5-6 times, some in higher spots, those will be easier to figure out. But because young horses can " figure it out" virtually from one race to the next, I see your point about md. claimers stepping into that type of spot. Way to much to look for but I have listed a bunch. You CAN find horses like that, those that improved drastically in their last race, so much so that it seems like a " bounce" candidate ( don't get me started on that, Lol), but often times if not aided by a bias or super easy trip , etc., those are horses that could have had the light bulb go on and are actually every bit as good as the vast improved last race was, and NOT the horse they were prior to that.
The people that will have less trouble finding those types are the ones that do not play 5 tracks or so, but follow 1 or 2 tracks VERY thoroughly. They will have an edge over those that are trying to play multiple tracks.
You cannot find those types with the 2 minute per horse glance approach. More than that will be needed to have enough feel to not be guessing but really have an opinion based on fact. That, is almost a dying art so it seems with players jumping around these days.
With all the whales and algorithms and computer stuff these days, I still am totally confident that if all effort was put into one track, or maybe 2 , ( I say maybe because I never tried it so I don't know for sure), it would not be can I win, it would be how much can I win and is it worth the effort. And it's horses and situations like this one, that would produce a horse that might pay 12.00 or 14.00 when in reality it should have paid 5.00 or 6.00. Someone that watched and waited would probably know that while the 2 minute handicap won't.
That's my take JBEX.Comment -
Having never been a fan of California racing, mainly because of the eastcoast/westcoast rivalry that was very much alive when I was there, I have just never been into much out there. It's a given that the soil is terrible. It's a given that the tracks cannot handle more than a passing rain. It's a given that the west coast is in love with fast times and although they tried to dull that down somewhat in the last couple of years, they will push to make the tracks faster again if the horsemen, owners and breeders have their way. Why? Because fast times are eye popping and that means money. It also means shorter careers. From what I witnessed from year to year when I saw the west coast horses train at Pimlico during Preakness 2 week stays, those super fast tracks have been doing more damage than good for a long time.
We also know that most Cal. breds have bad feet. That is a byproduct of the crummy feed they grow and I assume the lack of nutrients in the soil. Show me a Cal. bred and the 1st thing I want to see if their feet.
But enough of my rant on that place. I don't know if they will survive or not, and honestly, I don't care one way or the other.
Time will tell and it starts tomorrow. Hope for the best for the horses.Comment -
as long as I've played this game (or at least for a very long time) i always liked to avoid horses who won their last race for the obvious reason.. it's obvious lol... but my casual observation is that horses who break their mdn vs claimers and step into this level (which of course is the next logical spot) go off as overlays oover the long haul.. the old a maiden can't repeat after a win tale.. have to think in general (could be wrong) that repeating going mcl to n2l is more likely than msw to alw n1x or alw n2L.. if the speed figure is too high a lot of the value goes out of it but if it's a slightly slow to modest figure that's where you get overlays over time.. as you said the other work has to be done and it's no free lunch so to speak... so to sum it up imo drop downs and horses who exited fast races are as a group overbet.. handicappers (including myself too often) don't credit a horse enough for simply winning it's last race.. if you're going to try and repeat who better to do it against than a clm n2L field..thanks for the response strComment -
Another key day today for those that are in cold weather areas. Maintenance crews will be at bare bones tomorrow as most are given the day off. This means that the track will be graded today ( prior to the races) or will have last night but very little will happen tonight or tomorrow. So here is what you need to look for:
1. A sharp rail today as it was over graded to support tomorrow.
2. If it's wet and they cannot grade, and if the temps will drop to 32 tonight, expect a dead rail tomorrow as they will need to work it all day and night to keep from freezing.
3. If they rail is kind of dead today, or even, it should be worse tomorrow.
Hope all that makes sense and hope someone can find an edge.
Good luck everybody.
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Hey STR: Off topic on the Ponies. Are you a Deadskin fan or Raven backer. A tale of 2 cities for sure at least this year. GL.Comment -
Like most kids, you grow up as a fan of the city you live in or are close to. For me, that was Wash. D.C. So I was a Redskin fan and a Senators fan. Loved the Senators, had access to a lot of tickets, all day games from by neighbor. I was there a lot. But the team was sold and moved after the 1971 season. No more baseball in D.C. for 33 years. From that point on, I was a MLB fan, meaning I followed the game and all teams. No favorite, just loved the game.
Because of that experience, it was easier to stop being a Redskin fan about 2 years after Dan Snyder bought the team. I was a big fan until then. The guy truly makes me sick. Not just for ruining the team and it's tradition but for all the things he has done in D.C. The team currently is the laughing stock of the NFL. Nice job ! But he did other things as well. Too many to list but trust me, he is a class A POS.
So, no longer a Redskin fan, I am now an NFL fan. And because I wager on the NFL way more than the other sports, I actually enjoy not being a fan of the Redskins. It's a shame he hired Rivera. I think he is great. But I have total confidence that the Dan will meddle enough to screw it up . So far he is batting 1.000 doing so.
As much as I liked some of the Orioles way back when and even currently, I just can't be a true fan of a Baltimore team. Kinda like the east coast/west coast rivalry I have spoken about. No way I am a team fan of any current Baltimore team. I don't root against them, but no way I ever become a fan albeit Baseball or football. Used to like the Baltimore Bullets with Earl the Pearl back in the day and when they moved to Washington, I had season tickets close to the floor for a few years. But when my kids started arriving I ended that and when they changed the team name, I lost total interest in the NBA. Loved Ruland, Mahorn, Greevy, Unseld, Big E, etc.
Having no baseball team taught me you can be a fan of the league. That is what I am. I watch NFL red zone which allows me to see every team. Really helps with figuring out matchups for me. Although you would never know it this year. All I did this year was win, lose, win, lose. Never found a rhythm. didn't lose, but didn't win either. I will land very close to even this year when it's all done.Comment -
OK STR thx for the run down. Yeah not a big fan of Snyder. He has really screwed things up in DC. And the redzone is one great innovation. That's how I watch the NFL as well. GL today.Comment -
The view from the Keeneland sales podium was seenfrom a new pair of eyes Jan. 15 during the JanuaryHorses of All Ages Sale—specifically, those of GabbyGaudet, who made history as the first woman to takea leading announcer role for a major North AmericanThoroughbred auction."I was incredibly nervous," said Gaudet, who worksprimarily in front of the camera as a racing analystand reporter for TVG. "It's completely different and acompletely different skill set. This is, in my opinion,nothing like being on television. There is a little moreadded pressure because we're a sales company andwe want to sell these horses and do a good job for theconsignors who work so hard as well. With TV, I'mobviously representing the company I work for withTVG, but here, you're representing the sales companyComment -
hey str
brisnet has ratings for horse's running styles as you might know.. first time starters and lightly raced horses who haven't established a running style will get an "n/a" which stands for not available..I've noticed that some avg to very good jockeys seem to do very poorly with these types and if they do hit a decent win% their roi is often bad..does this make any sense to you or just one of those things? i'm talking over fairly large samples, so not just some fluke short term thingLast edited by JBEX; 01-17-20, 10:39 AM.Comment -
In those cases of firsters or horses that have only run once, the rider really is not nearly as important as they are with experienced horses.
If there is one area where the quality of rider makes less difference than any other area, it's with firsters or 2nd time starters. This is because if the horse is not mentally as well as physically ready to perform well, the rider won't matter who is on the horse. Maybe that is what your stat is pointing to.
Conversely, if the horse is sitting on ready, doesn't it seem like no matter who the pilot is, they just pretty much sit there and enjoy the ride? That's because that is indeed the case very often.
Now the exception might be that if 2 horses are in the same race and both are all set to deliver 1st out, maybe that has a hand in the better rider winning, but that does not happen all that often. In most cases of this particular kind, it's the horse not the rider.
Let's face it, if a horse runs green, it doesn't matter how good the rider is, that rider will have to ride defensively because they can feel the apprehensive effort under them, just like we feel a car we are driving that hesitates because of bad gas, carburetor or whatever. And at least in a car, you don't worry about it steering itself through the fence at some point. With a green baby, you do.
So I think that what you are seeing is just about all on the horse and not on the rider. It's the horse being apprehensive, and the rider feeling that and then also becoming apprehensive.
One thing to watch for is when the same rider stays on that apprehensive mount even though they ran green 1st time. Most top riders will tell their agent to get them off that horse after the race. But when you see them ride the horse back, and see the blinkers go on and a quick work in between, THAT is something to really sink your teeth into. They don't all win, but enough do with one or two poor efforts and a sudden change and more often than not, the rider was either on the horse in the morning or is well aware of the sudden focus prior to getting back on the horse. Once they start to warm up, if what was said is true, the rider will feel it warming up because the horse will feel completely different, just like that old car would with a new carburetor, and the confidence will transfer from horse to rider as well as rider to horse. And just like that, you have a nice price with that equipment change. That change can not only be blinkers but can also be 1st time gelding. Another thing to take a second look at.
Yes, there are things can attribute to a sudden change that the public will not be able to read that can also make for a sudden change, but nobody will have ALL the info ALL the time. So I guess the thing to do when it's a bunch of firsters in not try and look at the race the way the average handicapper looks at most races but instead look at those races with firsters or lightly raced horses from a different angle all together. I know that a lot of players will simply pass these races because they feel they do not know enough to have an opinion. And if they are relying on form alone, they cannot possibly have much to go on. But a different approach even just a mental bet until you gain confidence, might help in the long run. ( I do realize that you JBEX, read the types of races much differently than most but I wanted to help anybody that reads this as well).
Hope this does help reaffirm your stats as well as show others why these types of races can be approached, but usually best from a different angle. Please follow up if necessary.Comment
