ElCapitan's 2010-2011 NHL Season

[Kev the Brit]

stevex,

Just play all the series on the ML that way if you do get to the [C] bet and it happens to lose you won't be down much at all.

That sounds good, until you realise that there has to be more C Bets, which in turn increases the number of a C Bet losses, which in turn cancels the money saved. My view is that we have to accept the fact that series (C Bet) losses are unavoidable. Even the best teams will hit a pothole on the road. So, by using the PL, the number of losses will be minimized to the degree that there are usually at least 10 winning series between losses. We should use money management during the winning span (I use the 6 series immediately after a C Bet loss) to recover all the money lost on a series, plus the lost target.

I counted 163 series on the schedule spreadsheet. Unless the long-standing win/lose ratio and winning time spans changes, I will be exactly +163 units at the end of the NHL season. The most important element of my plan is to target no more than 2% of my bankroll.

GL Guys

Regards
Kev

[stevex]

Don't you have to have an enormous Bankroll to be chasing PL numbers?

stevex

[ElCapitan]

11/5/10 Results

Calgary Flames (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1) *LOSS*
Calgary Flames (A) PL -280 (2.8 to win 1) *WIN*

ML: 28(A)-15(B)-11(C) (+6.29)
PL: 28(A)-9(B)-5(C) (-22.26)

[stevex]

There is the man! I think we have a big card on the board for today.

stevex

[ElCapitan]

11/6/10 Plays

Big night tonight! I've been asked to start designating V1 and V2 plays and since I have it divided up anyway on my calendar, I'll make a notation before each play.

V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3)
V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) PL -238 (2.38 to win 1)

V2 Dallas Stars (A) ML +128 (1 to win 1.28)
V2 Dallas Stars (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1)

V1 Minnesota Wild (A) ML +155 (1 to win 1.55)
V1 Minnesota Wild (A) PL -205 (2.05 to win 1)

V2 Nashville Predators (C) ML +150 (2.39 to win 3.59)

V2 Philadelphia Flyers (A) ML -134 (1.34 to win 1)
V2 Philadelphia Flyers (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.34 to win 1)

V1 St. Louis Blues (A) ML +113 (1 to win 1.13)
V1 St. Louis Blues (A) PL -284 (2.84 to win 1)

[stevex]

Thanks for the plays man. Lets make some money tonight!

stevex

[PockyStick]

Lets get the ball rolling again

[stevex]

I'm not going to jynx it, but we are looking gooooood so far!

stevex

[Kev the Brit]

4-1 on the PL
Not good news with the ML C bet loss.

Rgds
Kev

[stevex]

Not good news? We won 3 dogs tn on the ML?

stevex

[teecee]

i need a bigger roll. i had to pass on all those plays, sans the c bet, b/c i could only afford to play one series. i hate depositing. congrats, guys.

[chilidog]

i need a bigger roll. i had to pass on all those plays, sans the c bet, b/c i could only afford to play one series. i hate depositing. congrats, guys.

Yah, you definitely need a decent bankroll to play labby lines, but they work out so well.

[ElCapitan]

V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) *WIN*
V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) PL -238 (2.38 to win 1) *WIN*

V2 Dallas Stars (A) ML +128 (1 to win 1.28) *LOSS*
V2 Dallas Stars (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1) *LOSS*

V1 Minnesota Wild (A) ML +155 (1 to win 1.55) *WIN*
V1 Minnesota Wild (A) PL -205 (2.05 to win 1) *WIN*

V2 Nashville Predators (C) ML +150 (2.39 to win 3.59) *LOSS*

V2 Philadelphia Flyers (A) ML -134 (1.34 to win 1) *WIN*
V2 Philadelphia Flyers (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.34 to win 1) *WIN*

V1 St. Louis Blues (A) ML +113 (1 to win 1.13) *WIN*
V1 St. Louis Blues (A) PL -284 (2.84 to win 1) *WIN*


Record:
ML: 32(A)-15(B)-12(C) (+6.75)
PL: 32(A)-9(B)-5(C) (-21.56)

[ElCapitan]

11/7/10 Plays

V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) ML +180 (1 to win 1.8)
V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) PL -167 (1.67 to win 1)

[knugen]

Who was it that had this "3 homegame system" i just wonder, u are onky playing ML right?

[teecee]

Who was it that had this "3 homegame system" i just wonder, u are onky playing ML right?

check pg. 5. the spreadsheet should be in post #159. it works the same as the el capitan plays; ml for fave, pl for the dog.

[knugen]

thx!
and what is this .500 record, and where can i found it?

[ElCapitan]

11/7/10 Results

V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) ML +180 (1 to win 1.8) *WIN*
V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) PL -167 (1.67 to win 1) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 34(A)-15(B)-12(C) (+9.68)
PL: 34(A)-9(B)-5(C) (-19.56)

(There was a error in my Google spreadsheet calculation that I corrected. The record and units are now correct.)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Monday.

[knugen]

and what is this .500 record, and where can i found it?

[Kev the Brit]

The ".500" record is the win/lose ratio expressed as a decimal. ie, 10 games played, 6 wins, 4 losses is .600 (60% success rate). So, if a decimal less than .500 is filtered out, the example of .600 would be acceptable. OK?

Regards
Kev

[knugen]

so everythin above .500 is a play?

[knugen]

and where can i find it?

[jphil]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=804332

[knugen]

thx man, i will follow it there

[knugen]

is it PL for dogs in thiis system or only ML

[jphil]

PL-dogs

ML-favs

include SHOOTOUT losses along w/ OT losses in your overall LOSS record.

[Kev the Brit]

Vancouver is a play tonight (JM V1). The team is fav, so we play them on the ML, even though ElCapitan will list them as a PL bet.

Regards
Kev

[ElCapitan]

Vancouver is a play tonight (JM V1). The team is fav, so we play them on the ML, even though ElCapitan will list them as a PL bet.

Regards
Kev

Actually, I play all the favs on the ML just as you're supposed to. Go back and look. I would never take a -1.5 bet.

[ElCapitan]

11/9/10 Plays

V2 Calgary Flames (B) ML +115 (1.74 to win 2)

V1 Vancouver Canucks (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1)
V1 Vancouver Canucks (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.15 to win 1)

[Kev the Brit]

EC, I guess I could have written my message better. What I was trying to suggest is that Vancouver is the fav and that you will list the team on your PL line to be played as an ML bet. Which is exactly what you have done.

Regds
Kev

[Pavv4]

Hey Capt. Can you post theV1 orV2 plays like you did before.

[ElCapitan]

I'm putting the V1/V2 out front of each play.

[jphil]

i realize that V2 is any 3 gm. series, so for distinguishing purposes am i correct in assuming that:

V1=at least 1(or more) home tms. must be from opposite conference.

V2=all 3 home tms. must be from same conference.

So the V1 always takes priority over V2 when any 1 home tm. is out of conf., even though they're both from the same mold so to speak (as in the case of VAN. tonight)?

[ElCapitan]

V1 = 3 game road series where at least one OPP is OOC
V2 = 3 game road series, no conference requirements