ElCapitan's 2010-2011 NHL Season

[CappinTerp]

Devils...

[fjordo]

is there anyone willing to make a spreadsheet with the spreadsheet from post 159. I would like something that is easier to keep track of the plays. I don't have the time to make a spreadsheet so I am willing to give somewhere between 100-250 points (based on how effective it will be) to whomever is willing to make one. please make a post saying you are willing to make one and try to have it done by nov. 3.
thanks a lot guys

Do you want it for homestands, away trips, or both? I can have one ready by then. Won't be fancy, but should do the job.

[ElCapitan]

Where did you lost the Buffalo (B) game tonight?

Buffalo was not a B bet. They started a series back on the 10/23 against NJ and won that one 6-1.

[ElCapitan]

10/29/10 Results

Edmonton Oilers (C) ML +260 (1.3 to win 3.37) *WIN*

New Jersey Devils (C) ML +115 (2.93 to win 3.37) *WIN*
New Jersey Devils (C) PL -260 (32.21 to win 12.39) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 21(A)-13(B)-9(C) (+6.67)
PL: 21(A)-7(B)-3(C) (-14.31)

[ElCapitan]

10/30/10 Plays

Lots of plays today.

Boston Bruins (A) ML -116 (1.16 to win 1)
Boston Bruins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.16 to win 1)

Florida Panthers (C) ML +142 (1 to win 1.42)
Florida Panthers (C) PL -224 (2.24 to win 1)

Nashville Predators (A) ML (no line)
Nashville Predators (A) PL (no line)

New York Islanders (A) ML +172 (1 to win 1.72)
New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.85 to win 1)

Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +107 (1 to win 1.07)
Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1)

I'm going to be away for a while but I'll update the NAS line when I can get it.

[fjordo]

Lots of plays today.

And I think Pittsburgh is a play as well.

[knugen]

So! Anyone in here that only play the ML, i'm thinking about jump on this train today but only follow the ML!

[sportscreep1]

I've only been doing ML using Labby lines instead of outright chase. Has worked for me, only been on it bout week though.

[knugen]

Yeah i'm also gonna use à labby line!

[stevex]

ElCapitan thanks for the update man, as always best of luck everyone and lets gets a sweep tonight!

stevex

[ElCapitan]

And I think Pittsburgh is a play as well.

Yes, PIT is also a play. It was an easy one to miss. They played 3 on the road then one at home then back to 3 more on the road.


Adding PIT tonight.

[ElCapitan]

10/30/10 Plays *UPDATED*

Boston Bruins (A) ML -116 (1.16 to win 1)
Boston Bruins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.16 to win 1)

Florida Panthers (C) ML +142 (1 to win 1.42)
Florida Panthers (C) PL -224 (2.24 to win 1)

Nashville Predators (A) ML +144 (1 to win 1.44)
Nashville Predators (A) PL -216 (2.16 to win 1)

New York Islanders (A) ML +172 (1 to win 1.72)
New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.85 to win 1)

Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL (favorite, play ML)

Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +107 (1 to win 1.07)
Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1)

That should be it!

[teecee]

lotta plays to keep us all interested this evening. i'm on the the panthers tonight, and that will be all. here's hoping they can close one out for us.

[PockyStick]

Boston Bruins (A) ML -116 (1.16 to win 1)
Boston Bruins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.16 to win 1)

Florida Panthers (C) ML +142 (1 to win 1.42)
Florida Panthers (C) PL -224 (2.24 to win 1)

Nashville Predators (A) ML +144 (1 to win 1.44)
Nashville Predators (A) PL -216 (2.16 to win 1)

New York Islanders (A) ML +172 (1 to win 1.72)
New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.85 to win 1)

Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1)
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL (favorite, play ML)

Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +107 (1 to win 1.07)
Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1)

That should be it!

hope you didnt mess up your florida bets

[ElCapitan]

hope you didnt mess up your florida bets

I didn't. Thanks for pointing that out. That was my mistake from copy/pasting too quickly and trying to get the post done. It should have been:

Florida Panthers (C) ML +142 (2.53 to win 3.59)
Florida Panthers (C) PL -224 (26.05 to win 11.63)

[ElCapitan]

10/31/10 Results

Title should say 10/30, not 10/31.


Boston Bruins (A) ML -116 (1.16 to win 1) *WIN*
Boston Bruins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.16 to win 1) *WIN*

Florida Panthers (C) ML +142 (2.53 to win 3.59) *WIN*
Florida Panthers (C) PL -224 (26.05 to win 11.63) *WIN*

Nashville Predators (A) ML +144 (1 to win 1.44) *LOSS*
Nashville Predators (A) PL -216 (2.16 to win 1) *LOSS*

New York Islanders (A) ML +172 (1 to win 1.72) *LOSS*
New York Islanders (A) PL -185 (1.85 to win 1) *LOSS*

Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1) *WIN*
Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL (favorite, play ML) *WIN*

Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +107 (1 to win 1.07) *WIN*
Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -270 (2.7 to win 1) *WIN*


Record:
ML: 26(A)-13(B)-10(C) (+11.33)
PL: 26(A)-7(B)-4(C) (-3.69)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Sunday/ Happy Halloween!

Next plays aren't until Wednesday.

[stevex]

Hey ElCapitan looks like where back to work tonight with the Islanders and Predators!

stevex

[Kev the Brit]

Plus an A bet on Detroit

Kev

[ElCapitan]

11/3/10 Plays

Welcome back!

Detroit Red Wings (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1)
Detroit Red Wings (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.15 to win 1)

Nashville Predators (B) ML +126 (1.59 to win 2)
Nashville Predators (B) PL -250 (7.9 to win 3.16)

New York Islanders (B) ML +145 (1.38 to win 2)
New York Islanders (B) PL -206 (5.87 to win 2.85)

[fjordo]

To anyone interested, here is a spreadsheet that is set up to play all the home and away series. BOL.

[stevex]

3-game homestand isn't a bad idea, but again your going to get ML favs very high with the home team. That's why I like ElCapitans system where you never get bad juice

stevex

*I do feel we should just stick to the JM(ElCapitan ML) NHL system in here to not get people confused and plus this is what the thread is all about.

[fjordo]

3-game homestand isn't a bad idea, but again your going to get ML favs very high with the home team. That's why I like ElCapitans system where you never get bad juice

stevex

*I do feel we should just stick to the JM(ElCapitan ML) NHL system in here to not get people confused and plus this is what the thread is all about.

You always get bad juice with ElCaptains system, if you want to call it his. When you play the PL you are getting close to -300 on each game. The ML is not bad though.

Anyways, the 'Away' chart is where you would make all his plays, it should be the same, I have just added in the 'Home', which you could completely disregard and stick to the Captains pics.

[stevex]

Thanks for the chart fjordo. Went 1 - 2 tn (if playing ML) with Detroit keeping the game at 2 - 1. Had the lead in the Nashville game but they blew it (PL folks did win) so on to tomorrow!

stevex

[ElCapitan]

11/3/10 Results

Detroit Red Wings (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1) *WIN*
Detroit Red Wings (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.15 to win 1) *WIN*

Nashville Predators (B) ML +126 (1.59 to win 2) *LOSS*
Nashville Predators (B) PL -250 (7.9 to win 3.16) *WIN*

New York Islanders (B) ML +145 (1.38 to win 2) *LOSS*
New York Islanders (B) PL -206 (5.87 to win 2.85) *LOSS*


Record:
ML: 27(A)-15(B)-10(C) (+9.95)
PL: 27(A)-9(B)-4(C) (-7.56)

[ElCapitan]

11/4/10 Plays

Come on, Islanders! Don't fail me now!

New York Islanders (C) ML +163 (2.07 to win 3.38)
New York Islanders (C) PL -180 (15.7 to win 8.72)

[cubfan2121]

Has anyone considered any filters on this system?
such as not playing the worst 5 road teams

or

betting against and chasing the 5 worst home teams during their 3 game road trip
just a thought

[stevex]

There are plenty of variations, but ElCapitans ML system produced +40 Units last year!

stevex

[Kev the Brit]

Thats the 2nd JM V2 loss within 4 weeks. I'm not surprised. When he published his Version 2, last Nov, he simply stated that it provides more betting opportunities (well, yeh, no shit Sherlock). There was no mention of any back-testing. Luckily, V2 performed very well. This season it is trash.

The only JM system with any back-testing is V1, which didn't perform very well last year.

Therefore, knowledge of the sport and good money management is crucial to the success of JM's NHL systems.

[ramper62]

Yeah...but the ANA series was a no play and a NYI V-1 series starts Nov 10...a nice spot for that V-2 recovery. V-1 12-0 for Oct.

[teecee]

Has anyone considered any filters on this system?
such as not playing the worst 5 road teams

or

betting against and chasing the 5 worst home teams during their 3 game road trip
just a thought

do we have enough info (games played) to make a good decision about what teams are the worst? most teams have played, what, 4 to 7 games on the road? not a large sample. i think you should play all teams whose schedule fits the system. maybe try winning a bit less, so it doesn't hurt so much if a series happens to lose.

[ElCapitan]

11/4/10 Results




New York Islanders (C) ML +163 (2.07 to win 3.38) *LOSS*
New York Islanders (C) PL -180 (15.7 to win 8.72) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 27(A)-15(B)-11(C) (+7.88)
PL: 27(A)-9(B)-5(C) (-23.26)

[ElCapitan]

11/5/10 Plays

Calgary Flames (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1)
Calgary Flames (A) PL -280 (2.8 to win 1)

[cubfan2121]

do we have enough info (games played) to make a good decision about what teams are the worst? most teams have played, what, 4 to 7 games on the road? not a large sample. i think you should play all teams whose schedule fits the system. maybe try winning a bit less, so it doesn't hurt so much if a series happens to lose.

I agree sample size is not large enough but looking at the bad road records maybe we can lower the unit size in half. This way a system loss isnt as bad. Doing the generic math you would only be out around 4 units instead of the typical 8 units during a typical 3 game chase, if it were to lose.

$20 = 1 unit
$10 = 0.5 unit for worst 5 road teams

Game A = 0.5 unit
Game B = 1 unit
Game C = 3 unit

system loss = 4.5 units

This is just a suggestion to tweak the system in everyones favor
Lets forget the islanders loss and lets make those units up and win some $$$$$

[stevex]

Just play all the series on the ML that way if you do get to the [C] bet and it happens to lose you won't be down much at all.

stevex