ElCapitan's 2010-2011 NHL Season

mitchp · 09-29-10, 08:28 PM

2010-2011 Season

ElCapitan,

Nice to see the thread back up, look forward to a profitable season.

Mitch

mitchp · 09-30-10, 07:35 AM

ElCapitan,

Any opinion on not making the C bet in the chase, it seems to me that you probably wouldn't suffer much in units by the end of the season. Maybe by spreading your loses of the B bet over the next few A & B bets you could actually make more units.

If anyone has historical data previous to last year, I'd love o take a look at it.

ElCapitan · 09-30-10, 08:46 AM

I was actually thinking of this too but it's kind of a toss up. Let me explain. If you look at the spreadsheet from last year V1 would have been more profitable just using A and B since the C bets actually cost us units by the end of the year. But V2 was the other way. The C bets basically brought the the system (well, the PL anyway) into the black, albeit for just a unit.

I guess the correct answer is that our sample size is too small to make any adjustments at this point. I will continue things just as I did last year.

chilidog · 09-30-10, 01:16 PM

nice, i can't wait for the nhl season to begin; i really enjoyed following your thread last year

Kev the Brit · 10-04-10, 12:38 PM

I will continue things just as I did last year.

nice, i can't wait for the nhl season to begin; i really enjoyed following your thread last year

Me too.

Regards
Kev

ElCapitan · 10-06-10, 05:02 PM

Still waiting on lines to be posted but wanted to remind everyone we will have a play with Anaheim on Friday night.

King Mayan · 10-06-10, 10:55 PM

RR was a real president??? JK

PockyStick · 10-06-10, 11:31 PM

someone posted an excel spreadsheet with v1 and v2 plays. Would be nice if there is one for this year too. Someone provide me with all the guidelines and I can come up with it.

fjordo · 10-07-10, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by PockyStick

someone posted an excel spreadsheet with v1 and v2 plays. Would be nice if there is one for this year too. Someone provide me with all the guidelines and I can come up with it.

You will have to adjust it as you want, and figure out which are V1 or V2 plays, but I think this is all the 3 or more game roadtrips this year.

Attached Files

road trips.xlsx (29.1 KB, 427 views)

matelionis · 10-07-10, 08:28 PM

What's the difference between V1 and V2?

mitchp · 10-08-10, 07:20 AM

El Capital,

Just out of interest where will you be getting the lines from? Also last year this was an experiment for you, will you be betting the system this year?

ElCapitan · 10-08-10, 02:51 PM

Last year I played the system small ($10/unit) just to see how it worked out. This year I think I'll go up to $25/unit. Last year I was using Bookmaker lines at the time of post. This year I'm going to use Matchbook lines since that is where I will be wagering - not to mention the lines are better.

ElCapitan · 10-08-10, 03:00 PM

10/8/10 Plays

Ok, let the games begin!

Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +186 (1 to win 1.86)
Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -158 (1.58 to win 1)

mitchp · 10-08-10, 03:12 PM

Those are good lines!!! I got slightly worse, but all is good - Go Ducks!!!!!

I will post my spreadsheet later if anyone is interested. I use it to keep track of ML/PL wins and loses and by entering in the lines and your bets, it will automatically keep track of your winnings (being positive) and running total.

knugen · 10-08-10, 03:15 PM

Do u guys play ML also on all picks, the system says onky PL tonight, right?

chilidog · 10-08-10, 03:17 PM

I'm interested in it, mitchp.

PockyStick · 10-08-10, 04:57 PM

Nice lines, they are even better than my 5d reduced ones!

Kev the Brit · 10-08-10, 05:21 PM

knugen

Do u guys play ML also on all picks, the system says onky PL tonight, right?

El Capitan plays ML on all JM listed games and compares the profit/loss with the official JM system (PL when dog, ML when fav). So, tonight, the Ducks are PL for the JM followers.

Regards
Kev

Kev the Brit · 10-08-10, 05:48 PM

Warning ! !

For the JM followers, here is one of his rules:

"You should never bet on a team that is starting their series in one of their first 3 games of the season"

His reasoning is that the bookies are not yet properly familiar with the team's performance and the level of risk is increased. He doesn't mention anything about the team's chances of winning a game in the series. So, on the face of it, the Ducks should win a game ATS this weekend, but the odds might be tighter than they should be.

Version 1 system: at least one of the home teams must be from the opposite conference.

Version 2 system: no restriction on which conference the home teams are in.

Good luck guys

Kev

mitchp · 10-08-10, 06:21 PM

ML vs PL

I'm actually going to play both sides for a while until I see how the wind is blowing and based upon last years record I will probably not play the C bet (but of course all of this can change). Go DUCKS!!!!

mitchp · 10-08-10, 08:22 PM

NHL Tracking

So here is the spreadsheet I'm using to keep track of the seasons wins and loses. I have set it up to take care of most of the calculation for you. All you have to do is enter in the ML and/or PL, and the amount you are betting for each (you don't a have to enter both). When the game is over, enter in the score. Place the score of the team you are betting on in the first cell and the opposing team's in the other cell. The spreadsheet will calculate whether you won or loss and and keep track of your profit or loses.

If you find any issues, just let me know and I will fix it (especially if my schedule is off). Or if you want anything added, I'll do my best to accommodate your request. I have protected the sheet, but if you want the code to do your own modifications, just PM me and I will get you the code.

Oh, and the other tabs in the file are not important, just something for my purposes.

Mitch

Attached Files

2010-11 Hockey.xls (327.5 KB, 521 views)

mitchp · 10-08-10, 08:26 PM

Not looking like a winning night, well maybe the Ducks will come through in the third with a few goals.

chilidog · 10-08-10, 08:46 PM

awesome spreadsheet, thx for the share!!

mitchp · 10-08-10, 08:50 PM

Glad you like, I get a lot out of these thread, nice to be able to give something back!

mitchp · 10-08-10, 09:40 PM

I noticed a problem with some of the calculations on the spreadsheet. I fixed them and replaced the file. Just download again and replace it.

Sorry

ElCapitan · 10-08-10, 10:50 PM

10/8/10 Results

Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +186 (1 to win 1.86) *LOSS*
Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -158 (1.58 to win 1) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 1(A)-0(B)-0(C) (-1.00)
PL: 1(A)-0(B)-0(C) (-1.58)

ElCapitan · 10-08-10, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by PockyStick

Nice lines, they are even better than my 5d reduced ones!

If you're not playing at Matchbook, you really should be.

ElCapitan · 10-08-10, 11:01 PM

10/9/10 Plays

Anaheim Ducks (B) ML +136 (1.47 to win 2)
Anaheim Ducks (B) PL -222 (5.73 to win 2.58)

Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3)
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML -224 (2.24 to win 1)

These are the two plays for tomorrow. I'm not posting a line yet because I think I can get better by waiting until tomorrow. I'll edit this post once I get down but I wanted to post the plays.

I had forgotten about the "1st series rule" but as Kev said, if you are strictly following the rules you'd probably lay off Atlanta because it's their first series. I didn't do that last year so I'm repeating. Hopefully it doesn't come back and bite me by putting me down big early.

ElCapitan · 10-09-10, 11:12 AM

Post updated. Good luck to all tonight.

zigomanisinsider · 10-09-10, 12:04 PM

hey el capitan is this your picks or john morrison picks

ElCapitan · 10-09-10, 02:38 PM

A little bit of A and a little bit of B.

ElCapitan · 10-09-10, 10:24 PM

10/9/10 Results

Anaheim Ducks (B) ML +136 (1.47 to win 2) *LOSS*
Anaheim Ducks (B) PL -222 (5.73 to win 2.58) *LOSS*

Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) *LOSS*
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML -224 (2.24 to win 1) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 2(A)-1(B)-0(C) (-3.47)
PL: 2(A)-1(B)-0(C) (-9.55)

ElCapitan · 10-09-10, 10:36 PM

Bets on BOS and FLA tomorrow. BOS game starts early. Will make the official post when lines are up on MB.

ElCapitan · 10-10-10, 08:45 AM

10/10/10 Plays

Boston Bruins (A) ML -110 (1.10 to win 1)
Boston Bruins (A) PL (favorite, play ML) (1.10 to win 1)

Florida Panthers (A) ML +135 (1 to win 1.35)
Atlanta Thrashers (A) ML -225 (2.25 to win 1)

An explanation for those who are just joining: if the away team is the favorite, you just play the ML. Never take the -1.5. Last year because I was keeping track of two systems (ML and PL) when this situation arose I would end up betting double - one for each system. So that's what I'm continuing here as you can see with the Bruins.