Betting 4 A Living

[HeeeHAWWWW]

This thread makes me cry. A lot.

[Sawyer]

just like your nba totals thread and shitty record? where you claimed you hit close to 60%??

%61.57 is not sh*tty imo. My NBA record last season was 133-83, %61.57 ATS. All documented. (In another forum, can't give the name since it's restricted. Don't be lazy and use google, lol)

[donjuan]

oh well, if you think that it takes a 100k bankroll to start betting for a living then so be it. i'll stick with 10k coz at the end of the day the profit that we earn is more important than whatever starting bankroll we have.

if you think that $200/day is not possible then i'll leave you with that. i cant share how i approach the game of betting. im no fool in doing that.

peace out especially to all haters

Come on Jon, can't you tell me how much of your bankroll you'd be wagering each day, how many wagers and your average edge? This is not difficult.

[CHUBNUT]

8 pages later and still talk of bankrolls and +EV bets because I dont work I feel I need not to get up before 10 AM but to make a living gambling such enjoyments are only myth. Wednesday's are my worse day as thats the day I have to spend 4 Hours preparing my European Horse racing for the next 4 days., Its not too bad this time of the year as its quite.
Come September I have the 4 main soccer leagues + the championship, NFL and College. I still have the horse racing which is the main money earner at this time, so you can see how time consuming things become. I'm also in touch with other bettors who may have a bet in another sport I dont even get involved with, so the ever constant scouring the books while perusing betfair, betdaq and matchbook 11 am to god knows what time at night for mistakes becomes not only mind boggling but sadly pathetic.
The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind. So you can see why I get so annoyed when people with 2 screens behind them post that you only have to create a model to make this game pay.
The most important thing to make this game pay is give your life up.

[wiffle]

8 pages later and still talk of bankrolls and +EV bets because I dont work I feel I need not to get up before 10 AM but to make a living gambling such enjoyments are only myth. Wednesday's are my worse day as thats the day I have to spend 4 Hours preparing my European Horse racing for the next 4 days., Its not too bad this time of the year as its quite.
Come September I have the 4 main soccer leagues + the championship, NFL and College. I still have the horse racing which is the main money earner at this time, so you can see how time consuming things become. I'm also in touch with other bettors who may have a bet in another sport I dont even get involved with, so the ever constant scouring the books while perusing betfair, betdaq and matchbook 11 am to god knows what time at night for mistakes becomes not only mind boggling but sadly pathetic.
The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind. So you can see why I get so annoyed when people with 2 screens behind them post that you only have to create a model to make this game pay.
The most important thing to make this game pay is give your life up.

lolwtfbbq

[iGotWinners]

8 pages later and still talk of bankrolls and +EV bets because I dont work I feel I need not to get up before 10 AM but to make a living gambling such enjoyments are only myth. Wednesday's are my worse day as thats the day I have to spend 4 Hours preparing my European Horse racing for the next 4 days., Its not too bad this time of the year as its quite. Come September I have the 4 main soccer leagues + the championship, NFL and College. I still have the horse racing which is the main money earner at this time, so you can see how time consuming things become. I'm also in touch with other bettors who may have a bet in another sport I dont even get involved with, so the ever constant scouring the books while perusing betfair, betdaq and matchbook 11 am to god knows what time at night for mistakes becomes not only mind boggling but sadly pathetic. The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind. So you can see why I get so annoyed when people with 2 screens behind them post that you only have to create a model to make this game pay. The most important thing to make this game pay is give your life up.

Happy 2 year anniversary on SBR! I know this might be a stupid question or something, but just wondering, so you don't bet 4 a living? JK

[chunk]

If anyone is paying attention, it isn't very difficult to identify the shills, ghosts, etc. Oh, and the dumbasses.

[TRE1968]

with good bankroll a system and the labby you can do it

[That Foreign Guy]

You know, if I won the lottery I'd probably actually spend a million dollars just flying round the world punching people in the face if they believe in the magic of progressive betting systems.

[horsiehung]

i wish could pick winners like that

[statnerds]

Can there be an entrance exam on SBR?

Question 1:

Do you feel that 55% winners over 250+ straight bets (-110) is world class performance?

An answer of no would restrict your access to HTT.

[chunk]

Can there be an entrance exam on SBR?

Question 1:

Do you feel that 55% winners over 250+ straight bets (-110) is world class performance?

An answer of no would restrict your access to HTT.

No argument with 55% here Statsnerd, but I am curious about something that you math guys could possibly help with.

Say a punter averages 55% over ~1200 football and basketball plays for 3 years at -110. If his winning percentage is 58% the 4th year, is it just as likely that he could hit 52% in a given year or does his previous success "weight" the variance?

[iGotWinners]

Great handicappers like goldengreek, sweetjones55 and among others are showing that they are hitting around 55% or higher, and it would be nice if they could comment on their experience with betting 4 a living. Like I said in a previous posts that a lot try to, but only a few can do it, b/c there are numerous factors that you have to take into acct just to name a few like being disciplined with money management, trying to pick winners at say 55% or higher, and trying to wager only 3.4% - 6.8%/day (check out bullsbetting.com I think) for some info on sports betting, and other factors to try to be successful with sports betting. You definitely need to put in the work, if you want to try to be successful with sports betting. One piece of advice is don't chase losses, bet within your limit, and if trying to be successful at sports betting can't be done, then try to accept that. I don't give up easily, but when I know I'm beat, then I'm beat. Once again, I'm just trying to help, and GL!

[PritchardsPicks]

I have lived in Las Vegas for 18 years and bet sports professionally. I've won sports handicapping contests in this town. You have to have a passion and love what you do. I invest a ton of time researching games and then pro actively get the best number on the game/games I am betting.

[jolmscheid]

I have lived in Las Vegas for 18 years and bet sports professionally. I've won sports handicapping contests in this town. You have to have a passion and love what you do. I invest a ton of time researching games and then pro actively get the best number on the game/games I am betting.

Says the guy who just signed up today and has 1 post...

[tomcowley]

The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind.

A+, but this is what laptops are for.

[usernametaken]

does the research really help? I mean there are stats and stats etc but then deep down what team wants it more? Can you measure it?

[goty0405]

does the research really help? I mean there are stats and stats etc but then deep down what team wants it more? Can you measure it?

While some people will shoot the "who wants it more" theory down in reality it is just another valid way for making picks.

Some people like to base theirs purely on stats and numbers (this is what I do mainly), and often these people bad mouth others who try to factor in human emotions and psychology. In reality these factors do play a significant part in the outcome of any sport but the problem lies in being able to model this behaviour and predict the result. It's nearly impossible (and I've studied AI) to do this but its much simpler to develop a mathematical model based solely on stats.

But the method used to make your selections is not as important (as long as it remains consistent) compared to things like intelligent bankroll management, achieving +EV bets, ROI, "strike-rate" vs statistical mean, and so on. These are what the professional punters know and utilise every day.

[statnerds]

Say a punter averages 55% over ~1200 football and basketball plays for 3 years at -110. If his winning percentage is 58% the 4th year, is it just as likely that he could hit 52% in a given year or does his previous success "weight" the variance?

If we suspend the fluidity of the market (think i just made up that phrase) and assume that the markets remains stagnant for years on end (they don't), there is no reason to assume he will drop to 52% over the course of a year. If we agree he will be 55% long term, a stretch of 58% over 400 games means nothing moving forward. The correction may take 1,000 games or 10,000 games to happen.


The problem isn't hitting an insane amount of winners, it is finding the volume to produce worthwhile profits long term.

[Justin7]

8 pages later and still talk of bankrolls and +EV bets because I dont work I feel I need not to get up before 10 AM but to make a living gambling such enjoyments are only myth. Wednesday's are my worse day as thats the day I have to spend 4 Hours preparing my European Horse racing for the next 4 days., Its not too bad this time of the year as its quite.
Come September I have the 4 main soccer leagues + the championship, NFL and College. I still have the horse racing which is the main money earner at this time, so you can see how time consuming things become. I'm also in touch with other bettors who may have a bet in another sport I dont even get involved with, so the ever constant scouring the books while perusing betfair, betdaq and matchbook 11 am to god knows what time at night for mistakes becomes not only mind boggling but sadly pathetic.
The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind. So you can see why I get so annoyed when people with 2 screens behind them post that you only have to create a model to make this game pay.
The most important thing to make this game pay is give your life up.

I was nearly thought this was one of your best posts til the shot at the end. Models are a prerequisite for one angle of attack, but you still have to put in the weekly time.

[Dark Horse]

my impressions:
1) markets have become more competitive in recent years.
2) a lot of 'gamblers' in reality are price hunters; these folks, in my opinion, could be more successful playing the stock market. What is considered a big bet in sports betting is nothing in the stock market.
3) to stay ahead of the curb you have two options: a) reinvent the wheel and put in the work upfront, or b) embrace a life of constant data crunching.

If you do 2) as well as 3b) you may end up as miserable as some of the more 'successful' players here.

[Wulfman14]

its tough to actually earn a living doing this.

[Sawyer]

I suggest to look for more "maiden" markets, such as "Brazil B", "Turkish 2nd Divison", "Canada Soccer League" etc. Hard to find value in big leagues. Know the value of the local advantage.

[statnerds]

2) a lot of 'gamblers' in reality are price hunters; these folks, in my opinion, could be more successful playing the stock market. What is considered a big bet in sports betting is nothing in the stock market.

I found that interesting in so much that I feel safer placing my money, even with the U.S. stance on gambling, offshore with an A book than in the stock market.

I just feel that the efficient market theory is stronger in sports than in business, at least for the major sports. How many 24 sports channels are there now? Much more information is known about major sporting events than is known about the thousands of companies on the stock market.

Additionally I feel you could work your ass off, pick the right stocks and a success would be 7% or higher return per year, when I can get a 90.90% return on every straight wager won. Of course the amounts on the wagers are smaller, but with +EV and enough volume, gambling returns beat the market.

Did we even get into the government taxing Gains? So what is your true return on stocks, after broker fees, taxes and the amount of time you have to tie up your BR?

Your post was solid my friend, not saying that. And I know this reply doesn't exactly fit what your point was, but it just got me thinking and I wanted to throw this out there before I forgot. And I love the majority of things you post on SBR, you know your shit. So in no way insulting here, just wonder if other people feel the same.

[LT Profits]

Can there be an entrance exam on SBR?

Question 1:

Do you feel that 55% winners over 250+ straight bets (-110) is world class performance?

An answer of no would restrict your access to HTT.

Actually no. Make it 1000 plays.

250 is still small enough to have variance, I've had 250-game stretches where I've hit 58%. Now if you can maintain 55% over 1000 plays, THAT would be significant.

[Jontheman]

Actually no. Make it 1000 plays.

250 is still small enough to have variance, I've had 250-game stretches where I've hit 58%. Now if you can maintain 55% over 1000 plays, THAT would be significant.

Damn, beat me to making this point. I was just going to volunteer to be the first excluded...

[CHUBNUT]

A+, but this is what laptops are for.

I have a rather long penis and sitting down it dips in the bleached water and usually gets infected. Last time I brought the laptop with me I dropped it and pissed all over it.

[tomcowley]

I have a rather long penis and sitting down it dips in the bleached water and usually gets infected. Last time I brought the laptop with me I dropped it and pissed all over it.

Do you shit standing up too? LOL

[Call82]

I really think once you have a bankroll that is big enough to start thinking of going pro, go to the stock market...

[Karim]

for 2 weeks now, after a 15 month testphase, i´m betting for a living

pretty nice i can tell you

[StackinGreen]

I've never had a losing NFL season.

Due to what people on this board as well as what skeptical friends said, I started tracking my plays last year and was over 85%, not even including the returns I had on teasers, which we said wouldn't count due to the problems of calculating picks vs. ROI and what each really meant.

Will I bust that kind of streak out again? Doubtful. Nevertheless, picking spots, I claimed in the transparent email thread that I could get 70% for NFL. I think this is possible.

I would hope others are skeptical, because they should be. It isn't common that you come across that kind of professional performance. Considering this is a board of innumerable blowhards just thinking in terms of probability, it drives the point home.

I may have posted this elsewhere, but I asked Jim from Atomic Football about what would be significant, or rather, how many games it would take to support some level of significance. Here is his answer:

"Assuming that you're never so good as to achieve probabilities too terribly far from 50% (even 70% is close enough for this to be a good estimate), a 3-sigma significance (you can look up the confidence intervals) at 70% would equate to approximately...

N = (0.5 * 3 / (0.7 - 0.5))^2 or about 56 games for a 39-17 record ATS.

I'm not too serious about my pro predictions (actually this year's endeavor is purely experiment to see if the lines undercorrect for certain information -- seems to maybe be the case since my ATS percentage was quite low). For college predictions, I believe numbers as high as 65% are possible, but only with a pitifully few number of games (maybe one out of 50, at most).

If you can find four games out of 14 or so where you can expect to win 70%, then I would be very impressed. However, that translates to about an 8 point error in the line, on average... which would mean that you clearly know something that everyone in the prediction community doesn't know, as the more skilled of us are usually consistent to within a couple of points of each other and are usually within 3 or 4 points of the line.

Please don't take it personally if I'm skeptical."

All in all, I thought you guys would find this interesting. Best of luck. Recently, my biggest question for the winners out there is, "What method do you use to bank large amounts of cash?"

[StackinGreen]

for 2 weeks now, after a 15 month testphase, i´m betting for a living

pretty nice i can tell you

Karim, how do you handle the tax situtation? Another aspect that intrigues me.

[Dark Horse]

I found that interesting in so much that I feel safer placing my money, even with the U.S. stance on gambling, offshore with an A book than in the stock market.

I just feel that the efficient market theory is stronger in sports than in business, at least for the major sports. How many 24 sports channels are there now? Much more information is known about major sporting events than is known about the thousands of companies on the stock market.

That would be good, wouldn't it? If a stock drops 10% on a day on a little negative news, a lot of people sell out of fear. If it's an otherwise strong company, you can almost always take those type of overreactions to the bank.

As to the media. I would strongly distrust any buy or sell recommendations from the major brokerage firms. In general, it is more profitable to assume that they use the media to enrich their own positions than to inform the public. You can rest assured that, when they have a buy recommendation published, they already own that stock. There's a whole bag of tricks at their disposal that would be considered less than honest by the general public. In the past month or so we've seen two stocks (Linkedin and Pandora) that on their first day of trading went through the roof, only to come back down to earth soon after. The cause behind the initial steep rise is that only a small percentage of the available stocks was released for trading. Highway robbery, unless you know the deal and trade with it.

[kkkkk]

probably there are a lot stupid statements in this thread but i found so far 1 statement i count for right according to my personal experience: its better to have a job and then bet then only bet for living without a job as this puts you under pressure. if you have other income you will make less mistakes imho.

[StackinGreen]

yup

probably there are a lot stupid statements in this thread but i found so far 1 statement i count for right according to my personal experience: its better to have a job and then bet then only bet for living without a job as this puts you under pressure. if you have other income you will make less mistakes imho.

This makes common sense and as you say, practical sense as well.

Factors outside of analysis (money, emotions, etc.) ruin discipline and lead immediately to losses. This is the first rule of gambling, but unfortunately you have to experience it to know it.