Betting 4 A Living

[maxvalue1]

very good thread

[Karim]

Karim, how do you handle the tax situtation? Another aspect that intrigues me.

Luckily i live in Austria , a Place where Tax doesn´t really exist. Friend of mine who lived in Germany (he had to give like 20% to the state) moved to Gibraltar when he started to make a living out of betting. ( Taxes don´t exist there )

[markteal]

8 pages later and still talk of bankrolls and +EV bets because I dont work I feel I need not to get up before 10 AM but to make a living gambling such enjoyments are only myth. Wednesday's are my worse day as thats the day I have to spend 4 Hours preparing my European Horse racing for the next 4 days., Its not too bad this time of the year as its quite.
Come September I have the 4 main soccer leagues + the championship, NFL and College. I still have the horse racing which is the main money earner at this time, so you can see how time consuming things become. I'm also in touch with other bettors who may have a bet in another sport I dont even get involved with, so the ever constant scouring the books while perusing betfair, betdaq and matchbook 11 am to god knows what time at night for mistakes becomes not only mind boggling but sadly pathetic.
The ups and downs of one minute catching a good earner to missing a price while going for a piss is a daily toll on the body and mind. So you can see why I get so annoyed when people with 2 screens behind them post that you only have to create a model to make this game pay.
The most important thing to make this game pay is give your life up.

lmao that sounds familiar I missed a lovely 50 quid arb today cos I finally gave in and went for a piss

[blix177]

Sure you can be profitable, just be on the bookie side of things, and kick out any smart player. Look at bodog, crappy book, that does everything right in terms of how they stay profitable.

[statnerds]

Actually no. Make it 1000 plays.

250 is still small enough to have variance, I've had 250-game stretches where I've hit 58%. Now if you can maintain 55% over 1000 plays, THAT would be significant.

Agreed. You apparently missed the post where I spoke of looking for corrections that could take 1,000 or even 10,000 plays to materialize.

The number posed was 250 because the average bettor will not look at the sample size, they will look at 55% and think it sucks. Moreover, 90% of people on this site could not hit 55% over 100 plays. 99% couldn't do it over 200 plays.

So the sample size wasn't meant to be the focus of the question, it was more to the lack of understanding the average bettor has of rational expectations for winning percentages for handicappers. Anyone walking in the door thinking 60% should be standard does so at a severe disadvantage.

[Dexter]

I've never had a losing NFL season.

Due to what people on this board as well as what skeptical friends said, I started tracking my plays last year and was over 85%, not even including the returns I had on teasers, which we said wouldn't count due to the problems of calculating picks vs. ROI and what each really meant.

Will I bust that kind of streak out again? Doubtful. Nevertheless, picking spots, I claimed in the transparent email thread that I could get 70% for NFL. I think this is possible.

85% over how many picks in the NFL (and was this at an average of -110?)

Looking forward to your thread this season (if we even have a season )

[StackinGreen]

85% over how many picks in the NFL (and was this at an average of -110?)

Looking forward to your thread this season (if we even have a season )

I know it's hard to believe, but it is documented. Not enough for you or others ... that's why I won't publish it until I have an argument for confidence/significance in it.

My baseball picks have been spot on recently (focus only on Phillies/White Sox) but I would never say I could do well long term in that game. NFL is, and has always been, my specialty.

Yes, each game is laid out with team, spread and price. The ground rules were:

1. Straight picks
2. Spread had to be available at a mininum of 3 legitimate books

At the beginning I was killing teasers too, but it was decided that the record wasn't going to reflect accurately percentage picking since games involved were "double dipped".

The problem (a good problem?) is that this will take 3 years, I'm guessing, to approach any sort of confidence level. If you grant that I might be as good as my results currently indicate, you have to realize that a 70% win rate can only be by picking 20 games a year +- 5, certainly no more. Don't you think?

[Karim]

Luckily i live in Austria , a Place where Tax doesn´t really exist. Friend of mine who lived in Germany (he had to give like 20% to the state) moved to Gibraltar when he started to make a living out of betting. ( Taxes don´t exist there )

btw my stats are 52,8% hitrate on average odds of 2,10, samplesize is more than 3000 bets.

[StackinGreen]

How many plays per week do you make?

[jolmscheid]

I know it's hard to believe, but it is documented. Not enough for you or others ... that's why I won't publish it until I have an argument for confidence/significance in it.

My baseball picks have been spot on recently (focus only on Phillies/White Sox) but I would never say I could do well long term in that game. NFL is, and has always been, my specialty.

Yes, each game is laid out with team, spread and price. The ground rules were:

1. Straight picks
2. Spread had to be available at a mininum of 3 legitimate books

At the beginning I was killing teasers too, but it was decided that the record wasn't going to reflect accurately percentage picking since games involved were "double dipped".

The problem (a good problem?) is that this will take 3 years, I'm guessing, to approach any sort of confidence level. If you grant that I might be as good as my results currently indicate, you have to realize that a 70% win rate can only be by picking 20 games a year +- 5, certainly no more. Don't you think?

Will definitely be watching!

[Dexter]

I know it's hard to believe, but it is documented. Not enough for you or others ... that's why I won't publish it until I have an argument for confidence/significance in it.

My baseball picks have been spot on recently (focus only on Phillies/White Sox) but I would never say I could do well long term in that game. NFL is, and has always been, my specialty.

Yes, each game is laid out with team, spread and price. The ground rules were:

1. Straight picks
2. Spread had to be available at a mininum of 3 legitimate books

At the beginning I was killing teasers too, but it was decided that the record wasn't going to reflect accurately percentage picking since games involved were "double dipped".

The problem (a good problem?) is that this will take 3 years, I'm guessing, to approach any sort of confidence level. If you grant that I might be as good as my results currently indicate, you have to realize that a 70% win rate can only be by picking 20 games a year +- 5, certainly no more. Don't you think?

no need for a huge long winded response. i could care less about win %'s, as they are for touts or wannabe touts. but since thats the point you keep trying to drive home..

simple question - what was your record for plays posted on SBR that made up that 85%?

sinced the day you joined sbr you do nothing but proclaim greatness for yourself - either you are trying to become a tout or you just love getting your ego stroked in cyberspace..? i know for a fact you did not have more then maybe 40 games posted. congrats if you hit 85% ats over 40 plays.

[Karim]

How many plays per week do you make?

in average i would say i have 2 large bets a day and an additional 8-10 smaller bets... but only half of those come from myself , i´m specialized on soccer and get different picks from friends/betting mates on different sports like european basketball, tennis , nba, also some special soccer leagues.

the most important thing in making good money with betting is to have a lot of good friends and contacts, who can give you good infos..team up as much as you can , work in groups, work hard, work disciplined and so on ..

[StackinGreen]

Dex,

We've been through this. Let's just leave it with what I last said: When I have the data that I think is significant, I will produce it. You sound about right around the ~40 play thing, which is why I said I'd hold until I think the data is appropriate.

Indeed, I'm either a tout who got lucky or a legit 'capper who didn't. The only verifiable thing that remains still perturbs you, though I'm not sure why: I went on a run unlike I've seen in my life or on this board. I'd appreciate it if you point out others who have done such, so I can ask them questions and learn more. If not,

Can we just leave the issue now? Thanks.

[StackinGreen]

thanks

in average i would say i have 2 large bets a day and an additional 8-10 smaller bets... but only half of those come from myself , i´m specialized on soccer and get different picks from friends/betting mates on different sports like european basketball, tennis , nba, also some special soccer leagues.

the most important thing in making good money with betting is to have a lot of good friends and contacts, who can give you good infos..team up as much as you can , work in groups, work hard, work disciplined and so on ..

Good to know. Thanks, Karim.

[Dexter]

Dex,

We've been through this. Let's just leave it with what I last said: When I have the data that I think is significant, I will produce it. You sound about right around the ~40 play thing, which is why I said I'd hold until I think the data is appropriate.

Indeed, I'm either a tout who got lucky or a legit 'capper who didn't. The only verifiable thing that remains still perturbs you, though I'm not sure why: I went on a run unlike I've seen in my life or on this board. I'd appreciate it if you point out others who have done such, so I can ask them questions and learn more. If not,

Can we just leave the issue now? Thanks.

as soon as you joined SBR you started claiming how great you were and even made a thread about the Win % thing cause your friends didnt believe you.

you posted plays for about half the season and did very well......have another good first half to the season and then you can start proclaiming yourself the greatest thing since Wonder Bread...cool? lol

everyone bets different amounts of games on a Sunday so the Win% is really meaningless. you may play 1-2 games per week vs another good capper who plays 10-12 games. obviously you will have the higher Win% if you are both equally talented.

the bottom line is, are you hitting the larger plays (without chasing losses). that's what it all comes down to.

tell me what the run was (20-5?) and i will likely be able to point out a stretch in one of my seasons (i post my plays from start to finish of a season)....when you bet the entire season, those magical runs do happen....

[truebluebear]

Lots of competition coming through in this thread , i got no doubt that many of the claims made in Cyberspace are basically folk stroking their own ego's and given the "FACT" that like only 2-3% of ALL gamblers will actually sustain a meaningful profit we either got ALL 3% in here OR The guys who genuinely make a living from gambling i admire and would love to emulate to the others who profess to making a living from gambling whilst probably on a daily bases feeding some bookie his holiday dough i pity - for my own part i'm off to the Racing Post page haha - if my NEXT bets' a winner I'll be happy as a pig in the dark stuff - Good Luck men !!!!!!!!!!!!

[the_mathman]

mmmm.... this thread has become interesting...
I must re-read all from the first post....

[CHUBNUT]

mmmm.... this thread has become interesting...
I must re-read all from the first post....

cut through the bs and just read mine.

[belvedere86]

in average i would say i have 2 large bets a day and an additional 8-10 smaller bets... but only half of those come from myself , i´m specialized on soccer and get different picks from friends/betting mates on different sports like european basketball, tennis , nba, also some special soccer leagues.

the most important thing in making good money with betting is to have a lot of good friends and contacts, who can give you good infos..team up as much as you can , work in groups, work hard, work disciplined and so on ..

willing to share picks?

[Peregrine Stoop]

Does StackinGreen realize how foolish he looks in this thread claiming 70%+ win rates

[chunk]

Manipulation of data and air bets.

[Karim]

willing to share picks?

i have a blog where i post some of my picks whenever i have time: http://karimkarim.blogabet.com/

[tukkk]

i have a blog where i post some of my picks whenever i have time: http://karimkarim.blogabet.com/

yearly ROI?

[necro]

just be patient and dont bet bad lines

[statnerds]

just be patient and dont bet bad lines

Damn good advice.

Favorites don't matter and dogs don't matter.

Only thing that matters is the fukkin price

[StackinGreen]

not

Does StackinGreen realize how foolish he looks in this thread claiming 70%+ win rates

It's not a claim. The question that remains is, how many games does it take for you to recognize it? I've already posted about Jim's 3 sigma, which seems reasonable.

[StackinGreen]

Damn good advice.

Favorites don't matter and dogs don't matter.

Only thing that matters is the fukkin price

Amen.

[cranzter]

I feel like the house only wins consistently

[StackinGreen]

I feel like the house only wins consistently

Most people aren't skilled, disciplined, and/or it is purely entertainment for them. That's why.

The betting public at large is very good, but in an instance allows for betting experts to take advantage. In fact, sportsbooks rely heavily on the market to show them where to go. I've talked about this extensively, it's one of the most misunderstood topics ... and also one of the reasons why I consistently win (in NFL).

[CHUBNUT]

Most people aren't skilled, disciplined, and/or it is purely entertainment for them. That's why.

The betting public at large is very good, but in an instance allows for betting experts to take advantage. In fact, sportsbooks rely heavily on the market to show them where to go. I've talked about this extensively, it's one of the most misunderstood topics ... and also one of the reasons why I consistently win (in NFL).

I respectfully disagree that books rely on the market. They make their numbers up with in house expertise, low limits has nothing to do with needing a lead just good business practice and where it goes after is anyones guess. I missed your extensive talk on this subject, any chance of re-surfacing it sounds intersesting .

[maxvalue1]

Show them where to go???...do you mean Line movement ? and if that being the case...do you profit on getting the best number versus the closing line?

[StackinGreen]

I respectfully disagree that books rely on the market. They make their numbers up with in house expertise, low limits has nothing to do with needing a lead just good business practice and where it goes after is anyones guess. I missed your extensive talk on this subject, any chance of re-surfacing it sounds intersesting .

Why is it good business practice? Because they know they are at times exposed. If they were so sharp with early lines (all the time), there would be no need for "good business practice."

Do I believe most lines per week are good? Sure. If you follow them, few move substantially. BUT, (and this is the point) if they never moved a number because they were so sure of themselves (which is my point, THEY ARE NOT) they would get KILLED on the few games they end up being wrong on, and they do not know which those will be.

Without the aggregate action of the betting public, and flexibility to reform their numbers, they'd get crushed. End of story.

[illfuuptn]

Why is it good business practice? Because they know they are at times exposed. If they were so sharp with early lines (all the time), there would be no need for "good business practice."

Do I believe most lines per week are good? Sure. If you follow them, few move substantially. BUT, (and this is the point) if they never moved a number because they were so sure of themselves (which is my point, THEY ARE NOT) they would get KILLED on the few games they end up being wrong on, and they do not know which those will be.

Without the aggregate action of the betting public, and flexibility to reform their numbers, they'd get crushed. End of story.

Weird how the guy is dumb enough to believe his 70% is legitimate and sustainable, but he is smart enough to have a level 2 understanding of how the market works.

p.s. There are 9 levels.

[Richta Bean]

interesting thread going one here if you can ignore the bs and bickering

[truebluebear]

All the "Theory's" and "Systems" in the world and number crunchin aint gonna help you if you got no betting plan in place and most importantly DISCIPLINE in your armour , its easy to stay with the programme in a winning streak but when the losing streak comes or there is not enough "action" is when you are truly tested , if you can discipline yourself and are fortunate enough to have a winning formula / system then Sir's I salute you . Good luck guys make those Books pay !!!!!!!!!!!!!