2011 NCAAF Plays

[Sunde91]

double post to track easy on a fresh page

2-1 +3.6 week 14

Final Regular Season:

Overall: 38-28-2 +35.98
average price (weighted): +113

Futures: 3-2 +11.54
(Weeden Heisman loss counted)

Straight bets: 35-26-2 +24.44

3x: 6-1 +14.85
2x: 12-9 +5.4
1x: 17-17 +3.19

ATS (FG): 17-10-1 +17.15
Totals (FG): 7-2 +5.97
(overs 6-2, unders 0-0, TT 1-0)
ML (FG): 2-4 -2.43
Live/2nd Half: 7-8-1 +3.83
(unders 0-2, ATS 4-4, ML 3-2)
1st Q/1st half: 1-2 -1.1

[Sunde91]

Ohio State +3 -110
3.3x to win 3

probably ML for a unit when it comes out also

OSU has a classic motivational edge in this game. Playing on bowl teams with an interim head coach or a coach on his way out (both here) are often great spots. To name some, NIU with an interim blew out Fresno State last year. FSU rolled WVU in Bowden's last game in 09. Florida in 09 rolled Cincy with an interim at the helm when it was thought Meyer was done.

If the players like the coach, they are going to play hard for him and get up for the bowl game. OSU loves Fickell, who decently guided them through the mess of the season and has been an assistant there for 10 years. They are going to play all out for him to send him off well.

For even more motivation, their opponent is Florida. The team who killed OSU 5 years ago in the Title game, back when Fickell was DC. The team where OSU's newly hired coach is from. A team from the vaunted SEC, which had owned OSU up until last year's win over Ark. OSU fans will travel well down to Jacksonville. Everyone apart of OSU wants this one very, very badly

Florida has been a mess. Major growing pains in a very disappointing first season for Muschamp. Florida has not covered ATS since September and they've lost SU 6 of their last 8. Brantley has been a completely demoralized and dysfunctional QB since his injury. They got embarrassed at home to rival FSU where Brantley threw 1 pick 6 and another INT returned to the 1. This team looks done.

OSU did not finish strong either losing their last 3, but the key is the motivation to get up for this game more than Florida.

Other sure plays to watch and wait on:
Vandy
Wisc
NW

[Sunde91]

Georgia -2.5 -110
2.2x to win 2

This is going to 3 quick

For the 2nd straight year, MSU is left with a trash bowl while Wisconsin smells the roses. Last yea,r MSU got dump trucked by Bama in the Capital One Bowl. MSU played uninspired crap on top of being a grossly inferior team. It's been Dantonio's dream and goal to get to the Rose Bowl, but failed again.

Georgia should rebound after the LSU loss. This team had new life for the season, winning 10 games in a row after 0-2. They just ran into a train in the 2nd half vs. LSU. They will play hard for Richt here.

[gshock1]

First time poster in your thread, but have followed your picks/writeups. Good work this season. I booked Ohio State already at +3.

Just curious, what do you see in Wisconsin against Oregon? Wisconsin is physical yes, but their defense is very slow. I could not believe what Michigan State did to them last weekend. I think Oregon's tempo is going to be too much here.

[The Bet Master]

Sunde finally getting that Buckeye swag on I see. Good luck, hopefully we won't let you down.

[Sunde91]

count on Bet Master

Shock I look to Oregon's Offense potentially having another subpar bowl game. Oregon is an Offense predicated on rhythm and its players always being accustomed to game speed. When they are off for an entire month, they lose their flow, their edge. This happened last year when they only scored 19 vs. 60th Total D Auburn. The year before, 17 points to 5th Total D OSU. They went into those games averaging 47 and 36 points.

Wisc's D was terrible against MSU, but still 8th. If they do enough to contain, maybe some TOs, Wisc can do more than enough on O to win and at worst cover. Wisc isn't affected by the downtime with their Offense. Line up and pound vs. a tiny D line. Last year in the Rose, they had 5 ypc and 226 rushing yards vs. TCU's #1 D that was giving up about 80 ypg rushing before that. Wisc dominated TOP and yardage there, but lost because they couldn't pass effectively and got bogged down in the RZ. Now they have the most effective passer in the country with Wilson, who can destroy that Oregon D like Barkley did. Wisc is 5th in Turnover Margin at 1.23. They win that battle they win

Vandy -2.5 -110
2.2x to win 2

Collaros is expected to return to this game for Cincy, but it will have been almost 2 months since he's played a game. Rust is obvious. He's also going against a pretty solid Vandy D that's 19th in Total.

Seems like a perfect spot to get a bowl win for their 1st time HC, James Franklin. He is a few plays away from 8-4 in his first year at Vandy in the SEC, which is incredible. Lost @ Tenn in OT on a questionable call after they threw the game away. Had Ark on the ropes with an 8 point 4th Q lead and then missed a game tying 27 yard FG to end the game.

Vandy was 5-6 going into Wake Forest needing 1 more win for bowl eligibility, after coming off a heartbreaking OT loss @ Tenn. Vandy played their best game of the year and won 41-7. It was that important to them to get in, it's that important to them to win it. Franklin will bring the energy he's brought all year and win it.

[PAULYPOKER]

Strong picks...........

[Sunde91]

Wisconsin +6.5 -110
3.3x to win 3

Good chance it drops down again back to about 4.5, and I'd be real surprised to see it ever touch 7. So took it now. Oregon is going to go for 2 and what not, making 7 not so vital to begin with as it typically is.

as said already

I look to Oregon's Offense potentially having another subpar bowl game. Oregon is an Offense predicated on rhythm and its players always being accustomed to game speed. When they are off for an entire month, they lose their flow, their edge. This happened last year when they only scored 19 vs. 60th Total D Auburn. The year before, 17 points to 5th Total D OSU. They went into those games averaging 47 and 36 points.

Wisc's D was terrible against MSU, but still 8th. If they do enough to contain, maybe some TOs, Wisc can do more than enough on O to win and at worst cover. Wisc isn't affected by the downtime with their Offense. Line up and pound vs. a tiny D line. Last year in the Rose, they had 5 ypc and 226 rushing yards vs. TCU's #1 D that was giving up about 80 ypg rushing before that. Wisc dominated TOP and yardage there, but lost because they couldn't pass effectively and got bogged down in the RZ. Now they have the most effective passer in the country with Wilson, who can destroy that Oregon D like Barkley did. Wisc is 5th in Turnover Margin at 1.23. They win that battle they win

Also, I think this means a little more to Wisconsin than Oregon. Oregon wants it, they want to redeem their last 2 BCS flops, but it's not exactly where they wanted to be. In regards to their first game vs. LSU, Darron Thomas said "If we lose this game, it’s a done season". Shows you where their minds were from the start, on the BCS title. Then they had another opportunity to get their but failed at home vs. USC.

Wisconsin's goal from the start was getting back to the Rose Bowl. They lost a real tough one last year, with it practically ending on a batted down pass on the 2 pt conversion that would have tied it with 2 minutes left. The TE was wide open for the catch. For this year, it's more than redemption, it might be their last shot at it for awhile. It is a near certainty that Wisc OC Paul Chryst will leave for a HC job. AD Alvarez on Chryst: “He told me that he wants to go. He wants to be a head coach.”

Heisman finalist RB Ball will be gone, QB Wilson will be gone, 13 other starting SRs will be gone (2 on OL), Chryst will be gone. Chryst can complete a masterful career as OC at Wisc. Wilson can complete his amazing journey in perfect fashion with a win in this game. This is an all in last shot game for everyone.

[No coincidences]

Nice work Sunde.

Agree re: Wisconsin. To me, it's Badgers or no play. Also like the Vandy pick.

I'm going to go with Michigan State. They're beyond due to win a bowl game and I thought they looked terrific vs. Wisconsin (in fact, I think they were the better team, which is saying something because Wisconsin is a Top-7 squad to me). A little worried about the letdown/hangover from the crushing Big Ten title loss, but they have a strong group of seniors and a young defense that just keeps getting better. Dantonio is a much better coach than Richt in my book and I think they're finally getting a somewhat favorable bowl matchup here. Hoping that MSU goes to +3.5 at some point.

[No coincidences]

I think my top four bowl bets will be Iowa State +2, Northwestern +9.5, Nebraska +1 and Wake Forest +6.5.

[Sunde91]

They do have the SRs to respond and finally get a bowl win, but stil gotta be crushed to fall short of their goal again and end up in the Outback Bowl. I'd lean flat over motivated, but it's close. Even if motivated, UGA probably has the 3rd best D in the country both on paper and talent wise. Last time they played a top SEC D last year against Bama, Cousins couldn't do anything and Baker/Bell rushed for 27 yards.

Like NW too

[No coincidences]

They do have the SRs to respond and finally get a bowl win, but stil gotta be crushed to fall short of their goal again and end up in the Outback Bowl. I'd lean flat over motivated, but it's close. Even if motivated, UGA probably has the 3rd best D in the country both on paper and talent wise. Last time they played a top SEC D last year against Bama, Cousins couldn't do anything and Baker/Bell rushed for 27 yards.

Like NW too

Speed will again be an issue for MSU in this one, though I think their overall team speed is improving with each year.

[Sunde91]

Northwestern +10 -110
3.3x to win 3

Northwestern ML +300
1x to win 3

TAM is a top 3 joke of the year in all of college football. This team was projected to win 9+ games and contend for the B12. They had 18 returning starters from a 9 win team last year that beat OK, Tx, and Neb. This was their chance for one of their best seasons in decades. Instead they laid a turd and went 6-6. Bum coach gone. Senior day ended on a last second FG loss to Texas in the last game of their rivalry with them for years

A team has to want to be in a bowl game to begin with in order for an interim coach to come in and shake things up and have an impact. Don't see how TAM could possibly care. Just wipe the slate clean for the year and start fresh in the SEC has to be the thinking of this team. I don't know how they get motivated for a bowl game vs. lowly Northwestern

Meanwhile, NW is still chasing its first bowl win in 63 years. This has been Fitzgerald's goal from the start, and he's gotten so close. Last year they lost by 7 (+7.5) to TT. Lost by 3 in OT (+9.5) to Auburn in 09. Lost by 3 in OT (+14) to Mizzou in 08. This is now their 4th straight bowl game for a school that has only been to 9 ever. 13 starting Seniors, including Persa, their QB and leader, now have a chance to end their careers with a huge bowl win as one of the winningest classes in NW history

NW has covered and nearly won all 3 bowl games under Fitzgerald, ranging from 7.5 to 14 dogs. No better chance than now to beat TAM in this spot

Wisconsin ML +210
1x to win 2.1

Ohio State ML +110
1x to win 1.1

[Sunde91]

Navy/Army Under 51.5 (Live 7-0 1 min left 1Q)
2.2x to win 2

[Sunde91]

Utah State -2.5 -110
3.3x to win 3

USU might be the most motivated team out of all the non BCS bowl teams. This is their first bowl game since 1997, and they're playing in Boise, just under 300 miles from their campus. This team hasn't even sniffed .500 in 14 years. The whole USU community will be thrilled about this and probably show a solid turnout of support in Boise.

USU also has a crazy passionate coach, Gary Anderson, who is close to a contract extension and only wants to be in USU. He led USU to 5 straight victories to close the season in order to get in this bowl. Before the season, he promised his team he would get a tattoo if they made a bowl game. They did, and he got one of the school logo http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-foo...ch-gets-tattoo

On the other side, Ohio could be the worst motivated team. They will be 2 weeks removed from a disgusting choke. They blew a 20-7 lead with 7 mins left in the 4th against NIU in the MAC Champ. Watched that game and saw how completely shocked and devastated all the players were. Now they travel 2000 miles to play in a game after they just choked their goal of the season away. They're also plenty used to bowl games, losing them. 2 bowl losses the last 2 years (0-2 ATS) against other nonAQs (Troy and Marshall).

MAC is a joke. To give an idea, they've lost 16 of their last 19 bowl games.

[Sunde91]

Montana +21.5 -110 live end of 1st Q down 21-0
1.1x to win 1

[No coincidences]

Utah State -2.5 -110
3.3x to win 3

USU might be the most motivated team out of all the non BCS bowl teams. This is their first bowl game since 1997, and they're playing in Boise, just under 300 miles from their campus. This team hasn't even sniffed .500 in 14 years. The whole USU community will be thrilled about this and probably show a solid turnout of support in Boise.

USU also has a crazy passionate coach, Gary Anderson, who is close to a contract extension and only wants to be in USU. He led USU to 5 straight victories to close the season in order to get in this bowl. Before the season, he promised his team he would get a tattoo if they made a bowl game. They did, and he got one of the school logo http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-foo...ch-gets-tattoo

On the other side, Ohio could be the worst motivated team. They will be 2 weeks removed from a disgusting choke. They blew a 20-7 lead with 7 mins left in the 4th against NIU in the MAC Champ. Watched that game and saw how completely shocked and devastated all the players were. Now they travel 2000 miles to play in a game after they just choked their goal of the season away. They're also plenty used to bowl games, losing them. 2 bowl losses the last 2 years (0-2 ATS) against other nonAQs (Troy and Marshall).

MAC is a joke. To give an idea, they've lost 16 of their last 19 bowl games.

Surprised this dropped to -1.

[Sunde91]

real surprised

Temple -21 -110 (Live up 14-0 2nd Q)
1.1x to win 1

late to the show here but expect Temple to just pour it on. Wyoming cant stop them on D and their O isn't too good with that FR QB now making mistakes. Temple seems real focused to finish this

[Sunde91]

Wyoming 2nd half +3.5 -113
1.13x to win 1

Glady take a middle shot here. Temple could be gassed on D in the 2nd half when these conditions really affect them. They showed them sucking wind on the sidelines in the 2nd Q and Wyoming will only keep coming on O leaving it wide open for garbage points

[Sunde91]

FIU ML +180 live down 13-10 late 4th Q
1x to win 1.8

[Sunde91]

TCU 2nd half -6.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

TCU was asleep and going to lose before the INT. Now they're awake and get the ball to start the 2nd half. LaTech could be up 14 and they blew it. TCU had 2 drops and 2 penalties that really screwed them. They should have their head in the game now and Patterson will have some adjustments to stop LaTech on O.

[Sunde91]

ASU/Boise Over 68.5 +125
2x to win 2.5

Dont expect many FGs, 2-3. So 9 TD + 2 FG = 69

2 capable passing offenses will come wanting to play and score. Moore's last game. Erickson's last game. Nothing will be held back by either side, air it all out. Both teams should be loose with a "go have fun" attitude. Lots of long passes, trick plays, what have you. If there's time on the clock, there's time to score and put any exclamation point they can on the season and the careers of their QB/coach

BSU's 10th passing vs. ASU's 107th passing D
ASU's 11th passing vs. BSU's 25th passing D (kind of weak considering playing in the MWC that doesnt have a single top 25 pass O)

[Kadinni]

Would you lay the chalk here? Boise vs ASU

[Sunde91]

bowls 4-2 +2.2

Overall: 44-30-2 +41.18

Cal +3.5 +100
2x

This is moving down again and Id be surprised to see a 3.5 stay up

Texas still sucks like last year. They have one of the worst passing Offenses in the country at 85th. Their run game is strong at 19th, but Cal has a decent run D at 37th. I don't trust any Tex QB they put out their if he's forced to make big throws if their run game isn't going.

Cal finished the season strong winning 3 of 4, 4-0 ATS, and played @Stanford pretty close. Cal will be up huge for this game. Tedford and Cal still clearly remember how they were snubbed of a BCS bid in 2004 with Mack Brown playing a big role in it. Cal was 10-2 ranked higher than Texas in the polls and looking good for an at-large bid to the Rose Bowl as Pac 10 runner-up (USC was in the nat champ). Then, before the final week of votes, Mack Brown lobbied voters to rank Texas ahead of Cal. 9 voters put Texas ahead of Cal, and Cal dropped behind Texas in the BCS by .0129 points after being ranked #4 vs. #6 Texas the week before. Texas went to the Rose. That would have been Cal's first Rose Bowl game in 46 years and it was stolen from them. Tedford and Cal were so upset about it that they withdrew from the BCS the next year. Tedford will want to destroy Mack Brown. Tedford also wants to finish with a bang and get momentum going into the offseason, when Cal will have new training facilities and a newly renovated stadium to start next year.

[Sunde91]

Cal ML +120 Live end of 1st up 3-0 Tex ball inside 30
1x to win 1.2

I'd expect a FG at best for Texas here. Their Offense is hopeless and Cal's D is here to play and shut down that run, forcing clown Ashe into 3rd and long all night

[Sunde91]

FSU -3 -105 live 1st Q after ND pick
2.1x to win 2

another ND game where they start strong and ruin it with an INT. They have killed themselves all year with TOs and I think they blew their chance for the game after that.

[Sunde91]

Baylor 2nd half -11 +165
1x to win 1.65

[Sunde91]

Rutgers 2nd half +1.5 +103
1x to win 1.03

Rutgers gets the ball and wont give up anything vs. an ISU team that lost it and has problems at QB switiching midgame going for a combined 6/17

[Sunde91]

Mississippi State 2nd half TT Over 14 -110
1.1x to win 1

Could have had 24 easy if not for 3 TOs. Miss State 147 rush yards on 6.7 YPC in the 1st half. Their run game should wear Wake down and lead to breakout runs

[Sunde91]

Okl/Iowa 2nd half Over 27.5 +123
1x to win 1.23

Neither of these Ds are good enough to hold up once things are opened up. Iowa needs to do or die through the air so points or give it right back to Okl with limited time expired

[darkenergy]

if you believe Iowa gonna come out to put some score on the board, sprinkle some on Iowa 2H -14, +1300. Hope I Iowa can score first, you can middle in livebetting.
I do it for $50 to win $650, just hoping both will tied the game at some point in 2H, in late 4q would be sweet.
I also have 2H OVER 26 for 2x.
GL my man

[No coincidences]

Okl/Iowa 2nd half Over 27.5 +123
1x to win 1.23

Neither of these Ds are good enough to hold up once things are opened up. Iowa needs to do or die through the air so points or give it right back to Okl with limited time expired

Incredible hit.

[Sunde91]

NW +4.5 -110 live after TD to go up 7-3
1.1x to win 1

Another unit on NW. Gotta be kidding me with this line. They are winning this game. TAM just dropped 3 passes in a row last drive then allowed a 80 yard drive for a TD. They will climb back in their hole now like theyve done all year. NW will come and come and come to get that 1st bowl win in 63 years

[Sunde91]

Wisconsin TT Over 33.5 -110
2.2x to win 2

Already with the +6.5 and +210 ML. Hard seeing Wisconsin not getting at least 4 TDs and 2 FGs. This is the best Offense Oregon has seen all year. Wisc's OL outweights Oregon's DL 325 to 272. Ball will run all over 45th rush D Oregon (63rd TotalD) if he can go 137 on 5.1 ypc against a top MSU D. MSU's average DL is at 289, 12th in rush D and 5th total. With Ball running free, Wilson will carve an even worse Ore secondary. Wisc's OC Chryst is in his last game and will open it all up

[Sunde91]

Michigan 2nd half +.5 +100
3x

VT seemingly dominated the 2nd half yet only put up 6 then somehow are down at the half. They blew it. Their whole "come out and show the doubters" chip on the shoulder is gone now and they are in the locker room dazed. They dont have the experience to respond. Got beat 28-0 in the 2nd half of the ACC title

Mich D will hold up and get a stop on VT's opening possession. Mich O with some momentum and Denard goes out a winner