2011 NCAAF Plays

[Machine Choice]

a non SBR PRO is telling one he doesnt bet real money

The sad part is, you're serious with this comment.

Congratulations, SBR pro. You now have a gold star for giving $200 of your welfare check to some clown tout who's laughing his way to the bank

[Machine Choice]

Sunde, I'll give you my picks for free. They're better and you won't have to spend your food stamps on them

[No coincidences]

Sunde, I'll give you my picks for free. They're better and you won't have to spend your food stamps on them

Sunde's a good capper.

What's wrong with you?

[Machine Choice]

Sunde's a good capper.

What's wrong with you?

Sunde is a clown. Click on his name and look at what he actually writes.

[Sunde91]

Optimus Prime such a big fan with 10 posts and counting in this thread

[Machine Choice]

Optimus Prime such a big fan with 10 posts and counting in this thread

Enjoy it. Someone's finally reading your thread.

[The Bet Master]

How can you say he's a bad capper in a thread in which he's winning?

[Sunde91]

Cincy TT Over 34.5 -110
1.1x to win 1

Dont know how NCST can stop Cincy tonight for less than 35. NCST has played no one and is 103rd in Pass Defense. Wake put up 34 points against them..Cincy should light it up tonight and not hold back, especially after losing @NCST last year in another Thursday Night game.

But then NCST's Offense and Cincy's D are the biggest question marks. NCST could put up 30 and ruin a -7 play or they could put up 14 and ruin an Over 60.5 play.

[Sunde91]

Don't like much on Saturday with just Tam -3 +100 2x and now

Boise State 1st Half -17 +100
1x

-Boise is typically a very strong 1st half team and they should come out real fast in their home opener here
-Tulsa is 116th in Pass D (thanks to Ok and Ok State)
-Boise is 6th in passing O and hasn't even played a cream puff at home yet to pad stats. Moore is also throwing 79%
-Tulsa in the 1st half went down 30-7 @OK and 31-6 vs. OK State
-Tulsa's Senior QB is out and they have to start a Freshman in his first road game. He threw 6/20 against Ok State last week

[shopbar picks]

Thanx, i really like miami. Do you Think its a let down game?

[CBASS]

BOL to you Sunde

[Sunde91]

No question Miami is in a letdown spot but I'm not sure about that game either way

You to CBASS

Wyoming 1st Quarter +6.5 -105
1.05x to win 1

This value here for a 1Q line considering a game line of -21. Most 1Q lines for large spreads are about 1/4 of the FG spread and sometimes smaller. Here it's about 1/3 the FG spread. Miss State is -19.5 FG but -4.5 -110 for 1Q as an example.

To get -105 is a bargin here. It's almost like this was the 1Q line for the opener of 24 and they hadn't adjust yet. This should be something like -125 relative to a 21 spread.

Also, Nebraska has sleep walked through Fresno and Wash at home losing ATS 1Q vs. both and losing 1Q SU vs. Fresno. Now they're in their first road game of the year vs. a Wyoming team who's "getting ready for this game for 3 years". It's also a night game for themhttp://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_18962984

Nebraska has @Wisc to open the Big Ten next after this also, so huge look ahead.

[Sunde91]

1-2 day and 2-2 -1.05 on the week

Overall: 15-11-2 +7.98

Excited for Nebraska @ Wisc for the game of the week next Saturday Night. No chance at all Wisc will be -2.5 like they were when I got it. I think the perception of the teams has changed so much that Wisc will be within a point of -7

Posted 9/1/11

Wisconsin -2.5 -110 over Nebraska (10/1/11)
3.3x to win 3
I got this during the game tonight and it is now -3 -110, which is still a good #. This should go up. I think 4-6 is where it should be.

1) Wisc's Elite Offense Will Handle Nebraska. 2 proven 1000 yard rushers in Ball and White. Ball is now a bigger threat speed wise after losing about 20 lbs from last year. OL returns 3/5 and has Senior Oglesby at 6-7 330 as a more than adequate replacement for R OT. Running game will be business as usual, probably better than last year in which Wisc ran for 184 and 226 vs. #3 and #5 Rush Ds in OSU and TCU. And of course there's Wilson with Cam Newton type speed and solid throwing.
2) Nebraska's Defense Will Not Be Good Enough To Stop Wisc. They were 63rd in Rush D last year. They will get beat bad unless significantly improved.
3) Wisconsin Home Night Game in Prime Time For Nebraska's 1st B10 Game. It isn't a bold prediction to say Madison will be rocking. Wisc has the #5 home win% in FBS over the last 5 seasons (since Bielema was there) with just 3 losses. (adjust 2010 records) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/4...ast-five-years
Concern: Wisc's Defense. They looked pretty awful tonight giving up a ridiculous 292 yards vs. a bottom FBS team like UNLV. 1st year D Coord has 1 month to straighten it out for Nebraska and the Big Ten. Nebraska's Offense isn't really remarkable though, and won't run a spread that Wisc struggles with. Nebraska was 44th last year in total yards. Home night game in Madison and Wisc's Offense is enough to win by a TD minimum.

-Nebraska still weak in Rush D, 60th in the country after 3 games at home
-Wisc has cleaned up their concern on D a great deal, 18th in Total D

[Sunde91]

Stanford 2nd Half -12.5 +103
1x to win 1.03

Stan has outscored each team in 2nd half so far this year by 3 TDs or more and they get the ball.

[Sunde91]

2-0 +4.03 week 5

Overall: 17-11-2 +12.01

Futures update:

-Ill O 6.5 and OSU U 9 wins should both cash week 7 when OSU goes to ILL.
-VT Coastal Champs is done. No way Clemson loses 2 and VT wins @GT. VT QB is awful. Beamer might be at the end of the road. This closed -250 to -300 and I got +130. Nobody took Clem or GT serious.
-Wisconsin's division could come down to the game @ILL November 9th. Don't know if ILL has 2 other losses on that schedule. Wisc is another level though and should be fine.

[No coincidences]

I'm starting to think Wisconsin will be playing for the BCS title Sunde. Who's going to beat them before the championship game? Rest of the Big Ten is a joke.

[Sunde91]

@MSU Saturday Night in 2 weeks will be their toughest game, then @ILL is the next toughest. OSU is a joke with no QB and won't nearly be the problem those 2 are.


I was wrong calling MSU frauds. They're #1 in total D in the nation. They held Notre Dame @ND to 275 yards when ND averages 423. I watched them play OSU Saturday and they are stacked on D at every position. They have the best chance to stop Wisc and have a passing game that can be good enough to exploit Wisc's sometimes weak secondary.

[Elevated]

@MSU Saturday Night in 2 weeks will be their toughest game, then @ILL is the next toughest. OSU is a joke with no QB and won't nearly be the problem those 2 are.


I was wrong calling MSU frauds. They're #1 in total D in the nation. They held Notre Dame @ND to 275 yards when ND averages 423. I watched them play OSU Saturday and they are stacked on D at every position. They have the best chance to stop Wisc and have a passing game that can be good enough to exploit Wisc's sometimes weak secondary.

MSU is definitely stacked on D... totally agree that wisky will have an interesting time versus MSU and Kirk cousins is a decent QB for MSU. I have this game circled for a must watch/no play game.

[Sunde91]

Michigan State -3 +100
2x

-State has the #1 Total D in the country. They have the most talented D in the Big Ten. They held ND to 275 yards (they average 467). They should contain Denard like they did last year, where they forced him to 3 INTs
-MICH is in their toughest test to date on the 2nd of back to back road games with Denard banged up coming off a NW game where he threw 3 INTs. MICH trailed 24-14 at the half before coming back to win 42-24. They spent a lot in that game and I don't like them to respond well in this game against a superb defense that will by far be the best they've played so far.
-State comes off a bye and is at home. MICH is walking right into a perfect ambush spot

Maryland +7.5 -110
2.2x to win 2

-Clemson is in a terrible spot. Laying 7.5 on the road in a night game against a "poor team" they won't be up for. Clemson isn't some veteran team with an experienced QB who will keep them focused and lead them to a big win. QB is in his first year.
-Clemson's QB Boyd was carted off the field last week with a strained left hip, also has a right thigh bruise.
-Maryland held a GT team on the road last week to 21 points when they averaged 51.6 coming in. D with confidence should do enough to keep them close here.
-Over 90% on Clemson according to pregame and the line moved from 8.5 to 7 in less than 24 hours

[CBASS]

I like'em. GL to you Sunde.

[No coincidences]

Do you like Wake or Cal at all Sunde?

[Sunde91]

You too Bass
Lean Cal if anything home Thursday Night, and don't trust USC at all.
Wake playing pretty good now 4-0 since week 1 loss. VT has been poor, but their QB did a complete turnaround last week and went 23/25 for 3 TDs in a comeback win. Could be some momentum to jump start them, and they have potential.

Auburn ML +110
1x to win 1.1

-Auburn coming home for a night game after back to back road games vs. at the time top 10 teams (won 1 at SC). Should get a lift
-Florida will play 1 of 2 QBs who are both freshman
-Florida is going through some growing pains right now with a first time head coach and a brutal stretch of schedule. Don't think they come out of it now with a true freshman QB likely making the start on the road again in the SEC in Jordan-Hare at night

Not 2x because of seemingly fishy line and Florida has the ability to do damage to Auburn on the ground

[No coincidences]

Not 2x because of seemingly fishy line and Florida has the ability to do damage to Auburn on the ground

That's what's keeping me away. I'd pound Auburn otherwise, but I have the feeling Florida is just going to grind them down.

[Sunde91]

USC/Cal Over 59.5 +114
2x to win 2.28

Offense:
-USC 28th in Total O, 15th in Passing O, 29th in pass att/game
-Cal 25th in Total O, 19th in Passing O, 12th in pass att/game

Defense:
-USC 61st in Total D, 97th in Passing D, 110th in pass att/game against
-Cal 54th in Total D, 74th in Passing D, 43rd in pass att/game against

-Both teams are going to pass all day against terrible passing Ds to keep the clock stopped
-USC with Barkley shouldn't have a problem getting points. Last game 468 pass yards and 48 points vs. Zona
-Cal should also score. USC last 2 games gave up 41 and 43 points vs. Zona and ASU. Formula vs. USC is simple: Pass. Cal throws 42x a game, teams throw against USC 39x a game. Zona just put up 425 pass yards on 41/53 vs. USC.

[Sunde91]

TENN +16.5 -103
1.03x to win 1

Tenn will battle them like they did last year (went to the wire @LSU). LSU wont keep rolling SEC teams without a hitch, too many points on the road.

[Sunde91]

VT 2nd half -3 +105
1x to win 1.05

Wake's only TD was from a 79 yard pass in the 1st Quarter. After that, they had 1 first down on 4 possessions in the 2nd Quarter.

VT is rollin a little bit now and they get the ball to start.

[Sunde91]

3-3 -1.08 week 7

thru week 7

Overall: 20-14-2 +10.93
average price (weighted): -105

3x: 1-0 +3.00
2x: 7-4 +5.54
1x: 12-10-2 +2.19

ATS (FG): 9-6-1 +7.64
(favs 8-3, dogs 1-3-1)
Totals (FG): 6-2 +3.97
(overs 5-2, unders 0-0, TT 1-0)
ML (FG): 2-1 +1.57
Live/2nd Half: 1-3-1 -2.17
(unders 0-2-1, ATS 1-1)
1st Q/1st Half: 1-2 -1.1

[Sunde91]

Auburn +22 -110
2.2x to win 2

#1 Workhorse RB, #1 playmaker on D, and a starting DB 4th in tackles on team are all suspended. This was already a look ahead game for LSU, their last game going into the bye with Bama following after. Too many distractions here to blow out an Auburn team looking to keep it going off momentum of Florida win.

[suicidekings]

Auburn +22 -110 2.2x to win 2

#1 Workhorse RB, #1 playmaker on D, and a starting DB 4th in tackles on team are all suspended. This was already a look ahead game for LSU, their last game going into the bye with Bama following after. Too many distractions here to blow out an Auburn team looking to keep it going off momentum of Florida win.

I don't know about this. As much as I agree that the missing players will have an impact, carrying momentum into the bye is critical for LSU given that they have Alabama on the other side, and this team has the depth to field a team that's almost as good despite the suspensions. LSU is going to put Barrett Trotter and Kiehl Frazier under intense pressure from the start, and I have very little faith in these two to pass effectively.

[Sunde91]

Rutgers 2nd Half -2.5 +120
1x to win 1.2

Rutgers outgained Lou 190 to 108 and won possession by 6 minutes. This is despite 2 INTs by Rutgers, 1 of which set up Lou's only TD. Rutgers scored a TD to tie it at the end of the first and should carry on.

[Cougar Bait]

I like Auburn as well. GL

[Sunde91]

This is pretty gay, I just happened to post in your thread at the same time you posted in mine, but yeah like Auburn.

[CBASS]

GL tomorrow Sunde

[Sunde91]

South Florida -3 -107
2.14x to win 2

Holtz will get his team to bounce back here at home coming off back to back road losses. They haven't played a home game since September 24th. Last year at this same time, SF had 2 straight losses, then won SU @Cincy as 9.5 dogs. They should respond here.

GT ML +123
2x to win 2.46

GT is probably favored if they hadn't lost at UVA. Miami is 94th in Rush D going against GT's 2nd Rush O.

USC +9.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

USC hasn't looked great and just beat up on a shit Cal team, but I think what's important is the confidence they got in that game, visible in the players. They should go into South Bend feeling good about themselves and pumped to take on their rival in ND's first night game in decades.

There's a little something extra also for USC. Last year USC lost by 4 at home to ND in a game they dropped the would be game winning TD with 1:23 left. Kiffin said that was the worst loss of his career http://www.dailynews.com/ci_19128990?source=most_viewed Barkley was also out for that game.

Texas Tech/Oklahoma Over 70 -103
2.06x to win 2

-OK 4th in pass O and 10th in pass att/game
-TT 6th in pass O and 1st in pass att/game
-2 up tempo passing Os should allow lots of time to work and score
-OK will score no question
-TT should put up 21+ on a OK D that has only been good against poor Offenses. They gave up 532 yards (291 pass) and 28 points to the best O they've played this year in Mizzou, at home

[Sunde91]

Wisconsin 2nd half -9 +150
2x to win 3

This game was on the brink of a blowout and then some MSU benefited from some flukes to give them the lead. Wilson has the experience to lead this team back. Ball should be back. Pressure is on MSU O here to get a good drive to start the 2nd half, don't think they do it. Wisc gets that ball back right away and they are winning this.