2011 NCAAF Plays

[No coincidences]

I can't say I like it or don't like it. SMU are flying under the radar and could have a breakout year with 18 returning starters (10 O). TA&M has 19 returning, but are coming in real hyped. 15 points could be valuable if it becomes back and forth with Passing Os that should both be able to move the ball.

I like it at 17.

At 15, not so crazy. I still think SMU has a really good chance to cover, though.

[Sunde91]

4-3-1 +2.31

Marshall/WvU under canceled, probably a win, but was in real doubt, can't complain.

Got a little lucky with SMU/TAM Over to cover by 4. SMU's Offense was more shameful than Tulsa's last night, play calling, execution, everything. SMU routinely ran HB Dives on 1st and again on 2nd and long and did fuk all. Might have lost without some early TOs to set up 2 TDs.

Wisconsin -18.5 vs. Oregon State -110 (9/10/11)
2.2x to win 2

How can Wisc not be a 3+ TD fave? This line moves almost certainly moves.

-OSU coming off a demoralizing home loss to FCS Sacramento State and now they're at Madison.
-OSU 4 Defensive returners (1 DLine) for a team 88th in Rush D and 86th in Total D. Wisc's run game will shred them nearly as bad as they did UNLV.
-OSU put up a stunning 21 points in regulation to a FCS Defense (lost in OT). Wisc's D can't be worse than Sacramento State.
-Wisc will have had 9 days rest with starters that played about 2.5 Quarters. They should play at least 3.5 this time with an abundance of rest.

Look at Fresno State +28 @ Nebraska. You cannot tell me Fresno is so much worse than OSU and Nebraska so much better than Wisc to warrant a 9.5 difference. That gives an idea of the potential value with this.

Wisc's shaky D could give up the same 21 and still cover. 48-21

[fishmonger]

I'm with you on the Fresno line. I'm hoping it goes up because it opened at 27.5 and people are all over Nebraska. For what reason I don't know. You think it moves past 28 to give us the hook and the extra possession?

[Sunde91]

Wisc now -19 and -18 -127 at pinnacle with a lean on Wisc (vig on insignificant # @18 to screw early bettors)

Fish, I think the Fresno line is too high, but still considering a play. I would guess it doesn't go higher.

Pat Hill has his corny ass motto "anyone, anytime, anywhere", and he's backed it up vs. BCS schools. Fresno is 23-10 ATS vs. BCS schools since 2001. http://coachesbythenumbers.com/anyon...sually-covers/

That said, he just lost to Cal 35-21 on a neutral site at +10.5. He also lost his QB, just 5 returning for D, 7 for O. Blackshirts could eat up his SOPH QB Carr.

[Sunde91]

ill take a shot with Fresno. have to think line goes down

Fresno State +28 vs. Nebraska -110 (9/10/11)
1.1 to win 1

-"anyone anywhere" Hill 20-13 ATS vs. BCS cited above. Hill knows these game are opportunities to be spotlighted nationally to draw recruits, and he's gotten his teams to perform. Also 16-17 SU vs. BCS, more wins than any other non-BCS school vs. BCS since 2001.
-Nebraska only beat FCS Chattanooga 40-7 on a 36.5 spread. Fresno is a mere 8.5 points better than FCS? And NEB starters played into the 4th. QB Martinez went 11/22..against a FCS Defense. They won't cover 28 against Fresno with a similar overall performance.

Concern is Fresno's SOPH QB making first big road start. He did ok last week 21/36 142, 1 TD, 1 INT vs. Cal.

[Sunde91]

Miami/Maryland Under 49.5 -110 (Live after Miami 1st score)
1.1x to win 1

[No coincidences]

Miami/Maryland Under 49.5 -110 (Live after Miami 1st score)
1.1x to win 1

I played the under small too Sunde -- though I got it at 45.5.

Another under loser. You have a better chance than I do, though.

[Sunde91]

4-4 +1.21

Seems I should lay off the shit Live in picks that are 0-2. Russian Roulette seems better than Unders in College too, just dumb, even with it's chance to win if FG missed late

Tennessee -6.5 vs. Cincinnati -110 (9/10)
1.1x to win 1

-6.5/+6.5 -109/-101 atm @ pinn, -7 @ Legends and Bodog. No one is going to bet Cin and this moves to -7 minimum

-SEC @ home vs. a Big East team that was 1-4 ATS on the road last year and 4-8 SU overall. Show the country you're not the same team by covering 6.5 in Rocky Top. Go for it
-TENN returns 7 on D including entire secondary to combat Cincy's pass prone Offense that returns SR QB Collaros and SR WR Woods
-TENN returns 7 on O including SR QB Simms, SR RB Poole, and 4/5 OL. Tenn wont blaze them with a 75th Total O against 11 returning on D for Cincy, but should do enough to control game and secure a comfortable win with superior talent and experience.

[Sunde91]

TENN went to -7 then crashed down and now -4.5, making me a massive goat.

Wisc went to -21.5 now -20

Stanford 1st Half -13 -105
1.05x to win 1

Maybe a better alternative to FG, which seems to be the square pick of the week. Could see early exits for starters in the 2nd half as Pac 10 begins next week with another road game @Zona.

[Sunde91]

Mizz/ASU 2nd Half Under 24.5 +109
1x to win 1.09

[Sunde91]

7-6-1 +3.16

1x: 4-5-1 -.78
2x: 3-1 +3.94

Nevada -5.5 -110
1.1x to win 1

Grabbed last night, now 6.5 5Dimes and 7 Greek.
SJ was 104th against the run. They gave up 272 on the ground to mighty UCLA. Nevada can still run; they put up 283 @Oregon. Nevada will control the game on the ground and SJ's O isnt good enough to cover.

Wisconsin -16 -110
1.1x to win 1

-NIU returns 4 on D with just one Dline. This has resulted in giving up 303 and 253 on the ground to Army and Kansas. Wisc should do far better and do whatever they want on Offense.
-Game is played at neutral Soldier Field, but should be about 75% Badger fans. Lots of alumni and fans in CHI area and Madison isnt a far drive down.

Biggest concern that has prevented this from a 2x play is NIU's Offense. They return 9 with QB. They put up 509 and 462 total yards vs. Army and Kansas. Wisc also lost a starting DB, leaving them more vulnerable on a D that is already shaky and unproven.

Wisc's O should do enough to win by 3 TDs. Wisc TT Over will probably be a play instead of 2x on -16.


Lines to watch and wait for
Wisc TT Over
Iowa -3.5 (thinking 2x play at -3)
UCONN -4.5
Clemson -3.5
ND -5
ILL ML
Tulsa/Ok State Over
Miami ML if dog or -3 or less (already heavily invested in OSU under 9 win so might not play but like Miami to win no question)

[Sunde91]

Clemson -3.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

When alt lines come up, Clemson -6.5 +125 or so might be worth a unit here too.

-Auburn played bad enough to be 0-2 at home. If that happened, and Clemson beat Wofford by 40, 95% of the public would be on Clemson instead of Auburn and the line would be -7 minimum. Auburn was outgained 448 to 364 at home to Utah State. Auburn needed a Kickoff Return TD and a 61 yard return on a bonehead Utah State onside attempt that set up the TD to win this game by 4 points. Auburn was outgained by MSU 531 to 381. Auburn needed a pick 6 and a goal line stand just to win that game.

-First road test for a team that returns 7 total returning starters. The crash will come hard Saturday @ Clemson, a tough place to play, after getting lucky at home.

-Clemson is fine, close game to Wofford means nothing. No one says anything about the week before when they beat a respectable Troy team that was 8-5 with a bowl win 43-19. Clemson may have been looking ahead to this game, who knows? And its reasonable to look forward to this game. Clemson had the would-be National Champs on the ropes in Auburn last year with a 17-0 lead, before they lost by 3 in OT after they missed a 32 yard FG that would have tied it. Clemson has plenty of starters who remember this; 8 on Offense and 7 on Defense. Their coach is also on the hot seat and they really need this game.

Tennessee +10 -110
1.1x to win 1

Gotta get this number when it's 9.5 at most places for a game I liked already. Think this should be 6.5/7 and still then I'd play Tenn or nothing.

-Returning starters are basically even. Tenn 7 on O and D with QB. Florida 8 on O and 5 on D with QB.
-TENN is an improved team. Tenn's D handled a high powered Cincy Offense holding them to 23 points while their O put up 45. Meanwhile Florida has done what? Beat up FAU and a 4-8 UAB team? Florida is back already to the level of the Meyer and Tebow days? They've done nothing and their coach hasn't even gotten his feet wet.
-I believe TENN's Coach Dooley has team motivated and ready to play in this rivalry game with a chance to finally beat Florida. It's been an unbearable 7 years since TENN has taken down their rival. Watching them last Saturday, I think this team is hungry and they believe they can win in Florida.

Plays still to wait on
Iowa -3.5
ISU -4.5
ILL ML
ND not sure
Likely a pass on Miami since OSU Under 9 wins 10x is already heavily involved in that game

[Sunde91]

Iowa -3 -110
2.2x to win 2

-Iowa is not close to being a bad team and only -3 at home to PITT is absurd. They lost respect losing to their rival on the road in ISU, so be it, more value.
-PITT is nothing special at all to be worthy of a small -3 in Iowa. PITT only beat Maine at home 35-29. They played Buffalo at home before that and gave up 403 yards. Now they're going to go into Iowa for their first road game with a new coach and cover 3? They're also looking ahead to Notre Dame at home the following week.
-PITT's weakness is the pass D. They gave up 276 through the air to Buffalo and 334 to Maine. Iowa QB Vandenberg and All-Conference SR WR McNutt should exploit this.
-Ferentz is a solid coach who will get his team to respond. Ferentz is 11-4 ATS as a home fav after a SU loss.

The biggest concern is how well Iowa will run the ball. PITT's strength is the run D. They were 16th in Rush D last year. They return 8 on Defense total, including 7 SRs. 3/3 of their D line and 3/4 of their LBs are returning SRs. They held Buffalo and Maine to 2.7 and 1.5 YPC. Iowa does return a RB and 4/5 OL to combat this, but only mustered 3.7 YPC vs. a 93rd ISU rush D. It could be trouble if Iowa cant run.

--

Miami and ILL will be probably be left alone as they are key games for my ILL and OSU futures, meaning if they lose I lose I run the risk of losing the single wagers + my large future wagers would be in jeoprady, but otherwise they are 2x caliber plays.

Plan to play UCONN and maybe some overs.

[No coincidences]

Really like Clemson, Iowa, Notre Dame, Illinois and Miami, Sunde. A lot. Kind of scary how much.

Do you know anything about FIU? Also, any opinion on Penn State/Temple?

[Sunde91]

Dont know much about FIU except that they're in a letdown spot after I saw them get super amped for the win at Louisville. UCF seems like the class of the CUSA who's looked good early and were 5-1 ATS on the road last year.

Id lean Temple, but not confident and +10 was the play if anything, now 7.5.

[shopbar picks]

Love the iowa pick, i completely missed it. Thanx

[Sunde91]

Miss State +3.5 -103
1.03x to win 1

[Sunde91]

UConn -6.5 +125
1x to win 1.25

-Perfect letdown spot. ISU comes off the win of their season against rival Iowa in 3OT and now they have to play their first road game on a short week 1000 miles from home on a Friday night.
-UConn returns 9 on Defense and should cause problems for an ISU team that scored just 20 points to Northern Iowa with 328 total yards. Thus far, UConn has allowed 13.5 ppg (21st nationally) and just 214 ypg (9th). They held Vandy on the road to 259 yards.

[Sunde91]

Kansas/GT Over 62.5 -103
1.03x to win 1

Late to the party, though reduced helps. 2 top Total and Scoring Offenses that combine for 100.5 points PPG this year. Kansas bottom 20 in Total and Scoring D, GT middle of the road. The concern is they are heavily run prone, #4 and 5 in rush attempts per game this year.

[No coincidences]

Good luck today Sunde.

I'm with you on Iowa -- hope there isn't a guillotine in our future. Line is weird.

[Sunde91]

Miami -2 -102
2.04x to win 2

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1260533-miami-2-vs-osu.html

Troy/Arkansas Over 61 -103
1.03x to win 1

Tremendous value + Ark 52 and 51 points 1st 2 games + Troy coming off bye and is good enough to score 21+ vs. an untested Ark D

looking at Illinois still

[Sunde91]

Futures all in perfect position so far, 6-1-1 day after 0-2 thur/fri

Overall: 13-9-2 +9.03
2x: 6-1 +9.94
1x: 7-8-2 -.91
Sides: 7-5-1 +5.82
Totals: 5-3-1 +2.74 (Overs 5-1)
ML: 1-1 +.47
Live/2nd Half: 0-3-1 -3.2

Maybe Stanford 2nd half, hopefully close for a good number. They appear to be worth the hype and wont let up.

Wisc is also definitely worth the hype. Their only concern was D. Now they just held a real good NIU O to 7 points and 236 yards. NIU came in with 45 ppg and 485 ypg. Wilson + top 3 running game in country + legit D = Big Ten Champs 11-1/12-0 with a shot at the title.

[Machine Choice]

Sunde91, if this thread is an indication of your handicapping you're a joke.

I can help you out and provide the same level of analysis you use: flip a coin

[No coincidences]

Sunde91, if this thread is an indication of your handicapping you're a joke.

I can help you out and provide the same level of analysis you use: flip a coin

[Sunde91]

Choice I directed you to my NFL thread to show I wasnt on GB -10, not my College thread. So you were so upset after I called you out for making a thread to whine after every play, along with your corny shit, you decided to dig in my posts and troll my College thread I also miss your longwinded walls of texts where you ramble on with one-sided crap you think is useful.

Texas A&M -3 +100
2x

-2 great Offenses each with Senior QBs. OSU 2nd Total O in country, TAM 18th.
-TAM has the far superior D that gives them a much better chance to stop OSU's O than OSU can stop TAM.
-TAM returns 8 on a D that is currently 15th in Total and 9th in Scoring. TAM held a respectable SMU O to 14 points.
-OSU returns 6 on a D that is 92nd in Total and 76th in Scoring. OSU got killed on D by a Tulsa team that was playing with a Frosh QB after their starter was injured. Tulsa put up 482 yards and 33 points. OSU also conceded 34 points to Sun Belt Lou Laf.

TAM with home field is big here in a game they to want avenge from last year. TAM led 14-0 @OSU and ended up losing by 3 on a last second FG. TAM put up 535 yards that game to OSU's 351. TAM's 5 TOs cost them the game.

That game basically lost TAM the B12 South, where they otherwise finished 6-1 in Conference with a win over OK. This is TAM's year to break out and they are certainly motivated to take out OSU in a grudge match. Expect about 42-31

[Machine Choice]

Choice I directed you to my NFL thread to show I wasnt on GB -10, not my College thread. So you were so upset after I called you out for making a thread to whine after every play, along with your corny shit, you decided to dig in my posts and troll my College thread I also miss your longwinded walls of texts where you ramble on with one-sided crap you think is useful.

Corny, huh? Winning is corny. Pointing out info that everyone is too lazy to find. Corny.

Go back to flipping coins, punk

[Sunde91]

you think you are the optimus prime of capping with your stupid ass "Machine Report" and avatar is what's corny guy

[Machine Choice]

you think you are the optimus prime of capping with your stupid ass "Machine Report" and avatar is what's corny guy

The Machine Report has more info in three sentences than you're capable of digesting in a month of flipping coins. You should tail me blindly if you were smart. You probably do, and that's why you're mad that GB lost today. It's alright, I undertand ghetto boy

[Sunde91]

omg get over yourself. "Machine Report" = incoherent wall of text with subjective analysis followed by a thread to stomp your feet in after every loss because it's not possible for Optimus Prime to lose hahahaha

Understand you are even in this thread in the 1st place because you're an insecure loser who went digging in my posts to look for something to troll after your feelings were hurt.

NFL thread would have been relevant to troll, but that doesnt show GB -10, which you insist I was on, and it also has a 10-1 record

[Machine Choice]

omg get over yourself. "Machine Report" = incoherent wall of text with subjective analysis followed by a thread to stomp your feet in after every loss because it's not possible for Optimus Prime to lose hahahaha

Understand you are even in this thread in the 1st place because you're an insecure loser who went digging in my posts to look for something to troll after your feelings were hurt.

NFL thread would have been relevant to troll, but that doesnt show GB -10, which you insist I was on, and it also has a 10-1 record

You're the one who comes off as an insecure loser. The minute you trolled me today I knew you were on the wrong end of a loss. I'll help you make it up tomorrow.

[Machine Choice]

Don't spend all your $10 tonight Sunde. Use it to play my winner tomorrow, and then you'll have $20 dollars.

[Sunde91]

is there an echo in here

you make a thread and proceed to cry in the 1st Q, I say "dont make a fuking thread slandering the champs in the 1st Quarter clown"

you continue to stomp your feet after back door and then I call you corny and you went and cried and came back here of all places to show what a joke you are

your high school starts in a few hours. already snuggled in your Optimus Prime Pjs so you're good to go pal

[Machine Choice]

Don't spend all your $10 tonight Sunde. Use it to play my winner tomorrow, and then you'll have $20 dollars.

What am I talking about? You don't even bet with real money.

Hey...Bone Thug in Harmony ... go eff yourself. You trolled me, not the other way around.

[Machine Choice]

You touted SMU against Texas A&M. Enough said. My work here is done

[Sunde91]

a non SBR PRO is telling one he doesnt bet real money

saying you're an idiot for creating a thread to bitch in the 1st Quarter isnt a troll. going through my posts to find an unrelated thread to harass is a troll

night Optimus