2011 NCAAF Plays

Cougar Bait · 07-30-11, 06:40 PM

Illinois wager is solid. Purdue beating Ohio St. would love to see it, but still not sure. Purdue has a long way to go especially on offense. I like what Danny Hope is doing there to try and turn it around but they have a pretty young team as well. Agree on Wisconsin, think there's going to be plenty of opportunities for them to mess it up but you look up and down that roster and it's pretty solid. Love coach Bielema too. GL on your wagers.

bornselling · 07-31-11, 03:10 AM

OSU Total Wins Under 9 -160 (pinnacle -188)
10x to win 6.25

Sunde91 · 07-31-11, 03:30 PM

5Dimes moved OSu U 9 to -150

. Greek -180, Pinnacle -188

% chance to win each game

AKRON 90%+
TOLEDO 90%+
@ Miami FL 43%
COLORADO 80%
MICHIGAN STATE 57%
@ Nebraska 20%
@ Illinois 43%
WISCONSIN 43%
INDIANA 75%
@ Purdue 66%
PENN STATE 57%
@ Michigan 43%

I like Miami in that game to be favored by 3+. 6 Offense, 7 Defense. 4 year Senior QB Harris back looking to avenge embarrassment of last season. New Coach Al Golden coming in from Temple with 5 years experience has this circled on the calendar as a launching point to get his team sold on the season against an OSU team he will hype to death. This is also Miami's first home game of the season coming off a bye-week and it will be hot and humid. Fans may actually show up to this game. OSU first road game is a big one and they should lose.

Michigan should absolutely be favored in last game by 3+. 10 Offense (3rd year QB Robinson), 8 Defense. Michigan hasn't beaten OSU in 7 years and this will be the rallying cry all-in game on senior day to close the season, maybe fighting for a bowl berth. Coach Brady Hoke comes in with 8 years HC experience, assistant to the National Title team in 97 and 7 years overall as assistant at Michigan. I think he grasps the importance of winning this.

Illinois is a real good play though that might be added to

% chance to win each game

ARKANSAS STATE 90%+
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 90%+
ARIZONA STATE 50%
WESTERN MICHIGAN 85%
NORTHWESTERN 66%
@ Indiana 60%
OHIO STATE 57%
@ Purdue 60%
@ Penn State 42%
MICHIGAN 60%
WISCONSIN 43%
@ Minnesota 60%

I see 8+ games on this schedule where they should be favored against average to poor teams

ASU returns 11 on Offense and 9 on Defense, are favored by 3 already, but I think its a coin flip, small edge to Illinois at home if anything

Illinois a near sure thing to be favored by 3+ over OSU. It sets up perfect. OSU could have 2-3 losses going into Illinois coming off a beatdown @ Nebraska the week prior (already +11). Meanwhile Illinois may have 1 or 0 losses. No chance Illinois is not favored in that scenario.

NutsINyoMOUTH · 07-31-11, 07:22 PM

holy crap that's the best bet ever...Ohio State will be lucky to be .500 this year. This has to be a joke

Sunde91 · 07-31-11, 08:47 PM

Added small to VT +130 to make
3.3x to win 4.29
(Greek +100, some have -110)

OSU Under 9 now -216 at pinnacle while -150 at 5Dimes

Wisc +140 to win B10 at sportsbook.com, +175 Greek while +350 at 5Dimes

the above lines at 5D for VT, OSU, Wisc can be found nowhere else on the planet right now and they will move. Can't find anywhere else with Illinois Total Wins up.

Forgot to say how fuked up OSU's offensive chemistry will be. Seniors WR Posey, RB Herron, and OT Adams are suspended for the first 5 games. Fall Camp will be hell to organize. Need lots of reps with new guys to get them ready, but still got to work in the seniors as you need them back badly for the last 7 games and you need them staying active. They are empty at WR outside Posey. 2 Sophs and a Fresh all with ZERO experience. So you're going to have a Freshman bonehead QB and a Senior QB with no experience exchanging reps with a group of vets and a group of rookies.

Seniors will not be motivated to work in Camp and will already be way behind game speed and will get smacked their first game back, which happens to be their toughest of the year.

Who do they play when Seniors get back? First 3 games: @ Nebraska, @ Illinois, Wisconsin. Looking at a totally fuked up team facing it's toughest stretch of the season. Will be 3 losses in a row after losing to Miami already. We could see this team implode and go 7-5 or 6-6.

cant call it · 08-01-11, 01:42 PM

I like utah win total over 7.5

suicidekings · 08-01-11, 02:24 PM

I like OSU to win 4 of those first 5 games, even with the suspensions. This will put them in a pretty decent position for the rest of the season with their full squad back in action, with the two critical games being Nebraska and Illinois as the suspended 5 reintegrate into the team before the bye week.

That being said, 8-4 seems the most likely ending for this team, and reaching 10 wins would only be possible if some of their tougher opponents suffer serious injuries, crippling their chances and allowing OSU to take advantage. I feel like I would split the wager a bit and put maybe 20-30% of the stake on the U8.5 (+130) for additional value without adding significant risk. Good luck.

The Bet Master · 08-01-11, 02:57 PM

Heres What I posted On Ohio State in your other thread

Biast fan speaking here, but don't underestimate us, we've had the top recruiting class in the Big 10 the last 3 years, so the talent is there. We're going to have a top defense again based off the recruiting classes and the great coaches. Look at the last few years at points allowed 2010: 13.3 pts 2009: 12.5 pts 2008: 15.1 pts 2007: 13.3pts 2006: 12.8 pts, I could keep going to but I think you get the point. Those stats just don't happen, and you mentioned returning starters is 4, but there is an abundance of talent that has had game experience and performed quite well on the defensive side of the ball, and the site you linked is missing the 3rd best player on this D in Tyler Moeller who is a 5th year senior with a lot of playing experience who got the injury bug. The defense certainly won't be an issue.

The offense,however, is going to be rather inexperienced and could be problematic. I also noticed your link put Joe Bauserman as the starting QB, yeah well throw that out the window. Braxton Miller, who was the nations #1 Dual threat QB will 95% be starting and if not him it will be Kenny Gution who is also mobile (But again, 95% Braxton starts). I've watched Braxtons film and his arm is great, I would even say better then Pryors was, though he won't provide the stiff arms and 4.3 speed Pryor did, though he will be one of the fastest players on the field. A lot of QB talk, but this offense will be through the running game. Jamaal Berry will most likely start in the absence of Herron for the first 5 games, and though inexperienced he has looked good in his few chances, and has great track speed. If he doesn't work out there are players like Carlos Hyde, who is a big built back, and Jordan Hall who is another speedy back, but I expect Jamaal to perform well. The receivers are going to all be speed guys, so teams without top DB's are going to have trouble keeping up. Saying that they are the weakest part of this team, but Corey Brown has shown in his limited time that he can get open. Things will get better when Posey comes back, hopefully its not to late by then. Bottomline again, though inexperienced the players put out are just going to be more talented and flat out better than players most opponents will put out.

Proven Defensive Players: Nathan Williams, John Simon, Andrew Sweat, Travis Howard, Orhian Johnson, Tyler Moeller,

Proven Offensive Players: Zach Boren, Jake Stoneburner, Mike Brewster, JB Shugarts, (Posey, Adams,Herron after 5 Games)

I think I covered must stuff, just ask me if you want to know anything, because basicly I follow this team 24/7 and I can tell you just about anything you want to know.

Back to the bet, lets look at the schedule, and I'll give my confidence percentage.

AKRON- 100%
TOLEDO- 100%
at Miami- First test, young players going to a semi hostile environment. However this isn't the U of old any more they have some talent, but I just don't see us losing here- 75%
COLORADO- A little above the first two opponents but not by much- 95%
MICHIGAN STATE- Over rated in my opinion, if it was in East lansing I'd give them a better shot, but I'm just not seeing it.- 80%
at Nebraska- Going to be a tough game. If Posey and Adams weren't back I'd say almost no way, but they'll be back and the offense will get a little bost. However in Lincoln could hand us are first loss.-30%
at Illinois- Tough game last year, hopefully they don't under estimate them again, should be competitive with the Buckeyes coming out on top. - 65%
WISCONSIN- Payback? After last year you can bet this will be a game some of the returning players will be ready to play. I would of given us an edge if it wasn't for the Wilson pickup. Should be a low scoring 21-17 type games- I'll go 45%
INDIANA- Don't underestimate everyone, well- 90%
Purdue- I'm certain this team won't be underestimated, the backups even dominated them last year so- 95%
PENN STATE- Should be competitive like last year, close game, slight edge Buckeyes- 65%
at Michigan- The Game. A lot of UM fans think this is their year, but based off what? haven't really been competitive as of late. however their D is returning a lot of players, unfortunately they aren't that good, will be closer then last year, but expect Hoke to be eating away after this loss - 80% another reason, because "We're Ohio State"

All in all there will be a few bumps in the road with a lot of new offensive players, but this is always a defensive minded team so expect to see that again. If your confident in your bet go ahead and take it, but just remember Ohio State is still loaded with talent, and they will be playing with a Shock the World mentality this year. As always said Ohio State doesn't rebuild, they reload.

BigdaddyQH · 08-01-11, 06:00 PM

You do realize who the Head coach of Illinois is.

Sunde91 · 08-01-11, 06:45 PM

VT to +100
Illinois to -150
OSU still -150, pinnacle to -209
Wisc still +350

@Bet Master: here are what some of your %s are converted to pointspreads http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

@Miami: 75% = -9. No chance -9 on the road, little chance favored. Don't see any spreads up.
MSU: 80% = -11. I would say -4 to -6 for 60-65% is about right, similar to PSU below.
@Nebraska: 30% = +7, close, but +11 already meaning closer to 20%
@Illinois: 65% = about -6, little high. -3 (57%) would be max imo
Wisc: 45% = about +2.5 sounds about right. OSU is +3 (43%) at sportsbook.com
@Purdue: 95% = off the charts like -24 on the road = not going to happen. I say -7-10 so 70-80%, 7ish if Purude seems ok.
Penn State: 65% = about -6. Just saw spread is -3.5/-4 so about 60%

@Mich: 80% = -11, no chance -11 @ Mich. I said 43% (+3), but just saw sportsbook has OSU -2 (53%) and I would say Michigan becomes favored by that game after everything pans out.

Seeing 5 games they will be dogs in: @ Miami, @ Nebraska, @ Illinois, Wisc, @ Mich

Think they lose 4 of 5 from those and possibly another between MSU, @ Purdue, PSU.

Again, after losing @ Miami and @ Nebraska by 10+ the week prior, respect for them will fade and Illinois will be favored at home after starting well on an easy schedule. Same thing for Michigan becomming favored at home by year's end.

Just saw Wisc is also -5.5/-6 @ Illinois. So Wisc -3 @ OSU, -6 @ Illinois. OSU 3 points better than Illinois in theory, but with home field, Illinois woud be a -1 to a -3 fav.

You do realize who the Head coach of Illinois is.

Schedule.

Will be favored in 8+ games
Ark State, SD state, WMU, NW, @ Indiana, @ Purdue, Mich (-3 sb), @ Minn (-10 sb)

+ potential to become favs or win in virtual coinflip in home games against ASU and OSU.

That's 10 easily winnable games and I just need 7.

They also won't be bigger than a 7 point dog in any game (Wisc, @ PSU biggest dog games).

Not a game they cant win on that schedule

chunk · 08-01-11, 08:37 PM

Not a big prop guy, but I'm tempted to bite on the Ill. over 6.5 wins. This team has been all over the map though. They seem to play the better teams tough and blow games that they should win.

Sunde91 · 08-05-11, 01:42 PM

OSU -150 to -205 5D (-209 Pinn)
Ill -135 to -170 5D (dont see anywhere else)
VT +130 to -110 5D (Greek +100)
Wisc still +350

Amazingly, of all books, BOOKMAKER has Wisc +500, but PSU is just +250, almost has to be a mistake.

GGZOLA · 08-06-11, 09:45 AM

like the reasoning, especially the illinois pick

The Bet Master · 08-16-11, 06:20 PM

Doesn't look like Miami will be beating Ohio State now. Ray-Ray Armstrong, Travis Benjamin, and Jacory Harris among others look like they will be out, and add Seantrel Henderson out for the year.

Sunde91 · 08-16-11, 08:05 PM

Illinois to -210, others the same

Originally posted by The Bet Master

Doesn't look like Miami will be beating Ohio State now. Ray-Ray Armstrong, Travis Benjamin, and Jacory Harris among others look like they will be out, and add Seantrel Henderson out for the year.

that would hurt

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/16/2360912/al-golden-doesnt-need-this-mess.html

only hope is there's insufficient proof. it is only one guy making claims, and he is in prison

If there's widespread suspensions, OSU total would probably go from -205 to about -140 on the under.

Cougar Bait · 08-16-11, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by The Bet Master

Heres What I posted On Ohio State in your other thread

Biast fan speaking here, but don't underestimate us, we've had the top recruiting class in the Big 10 the last 3 years, so the talent is there. We're going to have a top defense again based off the recruiting classes and the great coaches. Look at the last few years at points allowed 2010: 13.3 pts 2009: 12.5 pts 2008: 15.1 pts 2007: 13.3pts 2006: 12.8 pts, I could keep going to but I think you get the point. Those stats just don't happen, and you mentioned returning starters is 4, but there is an abundance of talent that has had game experience and performed quite well on the defensive side of the ball, and the site you linked is missing the 3rd best player on this D in Tyler Moeller who is a 5th year senior with a lot of playing experience who got the injury bug. The defense certainly won't be an issue.

The offense,however, is going to be rather inexperienced and could be problematic. I also noticed your link put Joe Bauserman as the starting QB, yeah well throw that out the window. Braxton Miller, who was the nations #1 Dual threat QB will 95% be starting and if not him it will be Kenny Gution who is also mobile (But again, 95% Braxton starts). I've watched Braxtons film and his arm is great, I would even say better then Pryors was, though he won't provide the stiff arms and 4.3 speed Pryor did, though he will be one of the fastest players on the field. A lot of QB talk, but this offense will be through the running game. Jamaal Berry will most likely start in the absence of Herron for the first 5 games, and though inexperienced he has looked good in his few chances, and has great track speed. If he doesn't work out there are players like Carlos Hyde, who is a big built back, and Jordan Hall who is another speedy back, but I expect Jamaal to perform well. The receivers are going to all be speed guys, so teams without top DB's are going to have trouble keeping up. Saying that they are the weakest part of this team, but Corey Brown has shown in his limited time that he can get open. Things will get better when Posey comes back, hopefully its not to late by then. Bottomline again, though inexperienced the players put out are just going to be more talented and flat out better than players most opponents will put out.

Proven Defensive Players: Nathan Williams, John Simon, Andrew Sweat, Travis Howard, Orhian Johnson, Tyler Moeller,

Proven Offensive Players: Zach Boren, Jake Stoneburner, Mike Brewster, JB Shugarts, (Posey, Adams,Herron after 5 Games)

I think I covered must stuff, just ask me if you want to know anything, because basicly I follow this team 24/7 and I can tell you just about anything you want to know.

Back to the bet, lets look at the schedule, and I'll give my confidence percentage.

AKRON- 100%
TOLEDO- 100%
at Miami- First test, young players going to a semi hostile environment. However this isn't the U of old any more they have some talent, but I just don't see us losing here- 75%
COLORADO- A little above the first two opponents but not by much- 95%
MICHIGAN STATE- Over rated in my opinion, if it was in East lansing I'd give them a better shot, but I'm just not seeing it.- 80%
at Nebraska- Going to be a tough game. If Posey and Adams weren't back I'd say almost no way, but they'll be back and the offense will get a little bost. However in Lincoln could hand us are first loss.-30%
at Illinois- Tough game last year, hopefully they don't under estimate them again, should be competitive with the Buckeyes coming out on top. - 65%
WISCONSIN- Payback? After last year you can bet this will be a game some of the returning players will be ready to play. I would of given us an edge if it wasn't for the Wilson pickup. Should be a low scoring 21-17 type games- I'll go 45%
INDIANA- Don't underestimate everyone, well- 90%
Purdue- I'm certain this team won't be underestimated, the backups even dominated them last year so- 95%
PENN STATE- Should be competitive like last year, close game, slight edge Buckeyes- 65%
at Michigan- The Game. A lot of UM fans think this is their year, but based off what? haven't really been competitive as of late. however their D is returning a lot of players, unfortunately they aren't that good, will be closer then last year, but expect Hoke to be eating away after this loss - 80% another reason, because "We're Ohio State"

All in all there will be a few bumps in the road with a lot of new offensive players, but this is always a defensive minded team so expect to see that again. If your confident in your bet go ahead and take it, but just remember Ohio State is still loaded with talent, and they will be playing with a Shock the World mentality this year. As always said Ohio State doesn't rebuild, they reload.

So you have OSU losing 2 games. LOL.

The Bet Master · 08-16-11, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

Illinois to -210, others the same

that would hurt

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/16/2360912/al-golden-doesnt-need-this-mess.html

only hope is there's insufficient proof. it is only one guy making claims, and he is in prison

If there's widespread suspensions, OSU total would probably go from -205 to about -140 on the under.

No it's over for them. heres the link http://sports.yahoo.com/investigatio...ps_allegations you can click on every player on the list and it will show you what they got and he has proof for almost everyone of them. Also Vaughn Telemaque and Sean Spence will probably be out, other key players for them on defense.

Sunde91 · 08-17-11, 05:45 PM

Pinn U 9 -209 to -242
Bookmaker U 8.5 -105 to -130

Big line moves 1 day AFTER Miami scandal

OSU @ Miami is maybe the most important game that could set the pace and outlook for rest of OSU's season, so I think the move is a tad significant

I tend to believe nothing will happen this season. NCAA has only 2 weeks to investigate and make a move. Not enough time

The Bet Master · 08-17-11, 07:32 PM

That's very wishful thinking. The NCAA has Plenty of time to suspend the players. The time consuming part is what to do with the university. There is enough info in the yahoo report to suspend some of them. Also the NCAA was on campus today doing interviews with the players. Expect a decision within a week.

Sunde91 · 08-18-11, 01:17 PM

Greek OSU Under 9 -180 to -320

VT to -130 5D

Greek typically has sharpest future lines. They don't move often, but when they do, it's significant. This move with the pinnacle move says an awful lot that under is still very much the play despite potential suspensions from Miami, or that Miami will be fine and beat OSU anyway.

No coincidences · 08-22-11, 01:24 AM

I like those plays Sunde.

Sticking with the Big Ten, I also think it's interesting that the O/U on Michigan State regular season wins is only 7.5 for a team many of the "experts" say will go 9-3 or better.

Sunde91 · 08-22-11, 02:13 AM

VT open +130, now -150

Nocoin MSU under 7.5 is a real good bet to consider, I overlooked it until recently. U 7.5 -105 to +125. Some books are screwing you offering only 7 at about -300/+240. Value is no doubt in U 7.5

They do have QB and 7/6 O/D returners, but last year was a fluke. They came back down multiple TDs to win @NW and Purdue, barely beat ND in OT, beat Wisc before they found their groove, didn't play OSU. They were spared 3-4 losses by luck.

Should all change this year with a hard schedule.

key game / MSU spread (lots of GOY lines up) / win prob

@ND / +7 / 30%
@ OSU / +4 / 38%
MICH / -4.5 / 63%
WISC / +3 / 57%
@NEB / +8 / 26%
@Iowa / +1 / 49%
@NW / -2.5 / 54%

They lose 5 of those.

Hadn't really watched the line, but 5Dimes has +110 atm, while others have +125. Will likely bet, see if I can get +120 ish.

Sunde91 · 09-01-11, 04:29 AM

UNLV/Wisc Over 56 -105
1.05x to win 1

I expect the line to move and think this is a decent price

-Wisc Offense needs no explanation. 2 1000+ rushers in Ball and White, ACC passing leader Wilson
-UNLV 116th in Rush D last season, 109 in Total, Wisc ran for 278 yards and 41 points last year against them in 41-21 win
-Wisc D is average, lost 5 starters, 1st time D Coord in 1st game, could start slow, should give up 14+ points
-Bielema has never been afraid to run it up. Remember last year? 83-20 over Indiana, 70-28 over NW, went for 2 in 4th while killing MInn. There is a big incentive to run it up here to give new QB confidence with team to start with some energy for a hyped season in a rare home Thursday Night game.

Sunde91 · 09-02-11, 12:09 AM

Wisconsin -2.5 -110 over Nebraska (10/1/11)
3.3x to win 3

I got this during the game tonight and it is now -3 -110, which is still a good #. This should go up. I think 4-6 is where it should be.

1) Wisc's Elite Offense Will Handle Nebraska. 2 proven 1000 yard rushers in Ball and White. Ball is now a bigger threat speed wise after losing about 20 lbs from last year. OL returns 3/5 and has Senior Oglesby at 6-7 330 as a more than adequate replacement for R OT. Running game will be business as usual, probably better than last year in which Wisc ran for 184 and 226 vs. #3 and #5 Rush Ds in OSU and TCU. And of course there's Wilson with Cam Newton type speed and solid throwing.

2) Nebraska's Defense Will Not Be Good Enough To Stop Wisc. They were 63rd in Rush D last year. They will get beat bad unless significantly improved.

3) Wisconsin Home Night Game in Prime Time For Nebraska's 1st B10 Game. It isn't a bold prediction to say Madison will be rocking. Wisc has the #5 home win% in FBS over the last 5 seasons (since Bielema was there) with just 3 losses. (adjust 2010 records) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/4...ast-five-years

Concern: Wisc's Defense. They looked pretty awful tonight giving up a ridiculous 292 yards vs. a bottom FBS team like UNLV. 1st year D Coord has 1 month to straighten it out for Nebraska and the Big Ten. Nebraska's Offense isn't really remarkable though, and won't run a spread that Wisc struggles with. Nebraska was 44th last year in total yards.

Home night game in Madison and Wisc's Offense is enough to win by a TD minimum.

Sunde91 · 09-02-11, 01:21 PM

TCU/Baylor Over 53 -101
2.02x to win 2

-Baylor was 19th in Passing O last year. They return 8 on O and QB and all WRs. They could be a top 10 Passing team and should break out tonight. They will be moving the ball for long 1st downs keeping the chains moving and the clock stopped. And they will be scoring a lot.
-TCU's D returns just 4 starters. They will not be close to the #1 Pass D they were last year.
-TCU will be able to run and score on Baylor. Baylor returns 5 starters on D for a team that was 79th in Rush D. TCU was 10th in Rushing and returns their RB.
-Baylor/TCU ended 45-10 last year. Baylor should score 3x that tonight in a 30-27 type game.

Don't see how this game won't be all Offense with 2 weak Ds. Would be ideal to see a lot of passing from TCU, but don't know with the new QB.

Edit: I put another unit on this. Can only help but think it's set so low and people bet this because they think TCU will return a Defense that resembles their #1 D last year. TCU's D will be but a shadow of itself.

Sunde91 · 09-02-11, 11:59 PM

2-0 +3.00

Tulsa/Oklahoma Over 65 -103
2.06x to win 2

-Both top 13 in Passing, both return QBs. OK returns all WRs + TE. Tulsa returns 2/3 WRs, no TE.
-OK 50th in Passing D, return both CBs, lose both Safeties. Tulsa 120th (FBS dead last) in Passing D, return whole Secondary.
-OK hasn't shied away from running up score in the past. Out to send statement in 1st game and for points/perception in the polls.

Obviously expect a lot of long 1st downs that take time to move chains and prevent about 10 seconds from being run off clock. Incompletions and no time elapsed when 1st downs aren't being thrown. Should be plenty of time for many of possessions and scoring. 50-25 type game.

Georgia ML +138
1x to win 1.38

LSU ML +147
1x to win 1.47

What a sight that would be for 2 top 20 SEC teams to lose OOC games on neutral fields each located reasonably close to home. SEC dominates OOC from Bowl games to pre-Conference regular season.

I think Oregon and Boise are both overrated and primed to underachieve greatly, espcially Boise. Boise played 2 remotely difficult games all of last season vs. VT and @Nevada and nearly lost both. They are frauds.

LSU returns 7 on D and Georgia 8. LSU 12th in total D last year and Georgia 23rd. Will be best Ds by far Boise and Oregon play all year and will be the difference.

1-1 at worst for small profit, 2-0 for nice profit.

The Bet Master · 09-03-11, 12:11 AM

Good plays, one of them should win. I'm leaning toward LSU, Boise always seems to find a way to pull it out when I go against them.

CBASS · 09-03-11, 04:39 AM

Nice analysis. GL to you Sunde91

Sunde91 · 09-03-11, 03:05 PM

Notre Dame -3.5 -110 (Live In)
1.1x to win 1

Sunde91 · 09-03-11, 03:10 PM

I can see that was a bad play already. Offense is completely out of sync and D getting pushed around. The Irish season may be ruined because of that fumble after coming out explosive on the 1st drive.

Sunde91 · 09-03-11, 11:32 PM

3-3 +.31

OK Over lost by 4 points after 2 goal line fumbles, 2 goal line stands by Tulsa were OK settled for FG, and terrible Tulsa play calling. I did make the mistake in overlooking Tulsa's suspended top playmaker. And I guess I overlooked the fact that the new Tulsa Coach was some ultra tight ass who didn't want to air it out with a capable SR QB. They threw 3 passes longer than 15 yards and completed all of them, which were on the only drives they moved the ball all night. Instead just perfectly content to run it 30x and then punt to the 5 yard line on 4th and 5 from mid field while down 30 points.

SMU/Texas A&M Over 56 -108
2.16x to win 2

Don't see many sides this early worth betting, so sticking with the same formula in overs like this where there's value.

-TA&M 20th in Passing O. Return Senior QB and all WRs/TEs/RBs
-SMU 21st in Passing O. Return JR QB and all WRs/TEs/RBs
-TA&M 89th in Passing D. Return 8 on D including entire secondary
-SMU 43rd in Passing D. Return 8 on D including 3/4 secondary
-Both teams looking at hyped years where they could breakout and rack up top 10 Passing years

Returning D starters is a little concerning. Still, it's going to take bad breaks like in OK game or some abnormal defensive struggle to keep this under. Both Os should move ball through the air and score with little difficulty.

Sunde91 · 09-04-11, 02:59 PM

Marshall/WVU Under 55.5 -110 (Live In)
1.1x to win 1

No coincidences · 09-04-11, 03:28 PM

Do you like the SMU at +15 at all Sunde?

Sunde91 · 09-04-11, 03:58 PM

I can't say I like it or don't like it. SMU are flying under the radar and could have a breakout year with 18 returning starters (10 O). TA&M has 19 returning, but are coming in real hyped. 15 points could be valuable if it becomes back and forth with Passing Os that should both be able to move the ball.