2011 NCAAF Plays

[Sunde91]

2-5 -5.34 week 8

Overall: 22-19 +5.59

LSU +6 -110 (11/5 @Bama)
3.3x to win 3

This should be 3 or less. LSU is at worst on par with Bama. LSU has 2 Senior QBs each used for their skill sets who have played in this rivalry 3 times. Bama has a 1st year QB. Both Ds are about even overall, though LSU has more playmakers. LSU has been completely unaffected on the road this year and they aren't getting beat bad now.

Waiting to get on Nebraska. Nebraska may have found its feet and will pounce on MSU in a huge letdown spot after that fluke. Last year in week 9, MSU got blown out @Iowa 37-6 after a miracle comeback the week before @NW (2 TDs final 2 minutes to win). Similar thing could happen here

[No coincidences]

Agree re: MSU. This brutal stretch will catch up to them here. This is kind of a mental "sacrifice" game for them, whether they know/admit it or not.

[Sunde91]

GT +4 -110
3.3x to win 3

Considering ML add later or more on 4 if it goes back

-GT's 5th rush O vs. Clemson's 76th rush D
-GT's 8th pass D vs. Clemson's 14th pass O
-GT has allowed 151 pass ypg through 5 ACC games. Clemson hasn't faced a pass D inside the top 39.
-Clemson's D is so bad they gave up 291 rushing yards @ Maryland..Maryland is a shit team overall and only 50th rushing @ 168 ypg.

GT is going to respond here at home at night game against their biggeset ACC rival. GT plays much better at home and their rush game will explode after slumping the last few weeks. Clemson is a young team with a first year QB going on the road at night to face the best D they've played all year. Clemson barely survived @Maryland 2 weeks ago. They're going down in Atlanta.

[Sunde91]

FIU ML +135 (Live after 3rd)
1x to win 1.35

[Sunde91]

Nebraska -4 -105
2.1x to win 2

Letdown angle is obvious. Also look exactly 1 year ago. State off a big comeback win @NW, went to an average Iowa team and lost 37-6. Nebraska played a Mizzou team coming off a win over #1 OK and won 31-17. Situation is basically the same, teams are basically the same

Might be 3x if Nebraska looked better overall and Martinez wasn't one of the worst QBs in the country with god awful mechanics

Georgia -3 -105
2.1x to win 2

I think Georgia has found its groove winning 5 in a row after a disastrous start. Richt was about to get fired and he righted the ship. Meanwhile Florida has dropped 3 straight and is going through massive growing pains with a 1st time head coach. Brantley is back, but don't think he jumps right back in it and excels. The dogs have dropped 3 straight to Florida and this is the perfect year to beat their rival.

watching for USC and Wisc late

[Sunde91]

Washington 2nd half -3 +105
1x to win 1.05

WASH outscored them 14-3 in the 2nd Q. They have momentum going into half and get the ball to start the 3rd Q. They should put them away at home.

[Vin_vermillion]

LOOKS LIKE YOU HAD A GOOD DAY.

THATS WHATS IMPORTANT.

[Sunde91]

5-0 +9.4 week 9

Overall: 27-19-2 +14.99

Temple ML +115 (Live end of 1st Q down 7-0)
1x to win 1.15

Ohio isn't going to move the ball easily after the first 2 drives. Temple's D is settled in. Temple was close to scoring last drive and will just wear them down on the ground and win.

[The Bet Master]

You still think that you will win your Ohio State bet? We win out and we are basicly in the conference championship game. Can't see us losing to Pick Six or scUM the way the defense is playing, especially since Posey should be back for those games. And yes I'm looking past Indiana and Purdue.

[Sunde91]

Not thrilled at all, but like it more than not, clearly glad to have the 9 and push secure

PSU with that D has a shot to win just like MSU did (+4 I'd guess)

Mich at home is probably -3. Home Senior Day game with Denard and all those Seniors winless vs. both OSU and MSU..no better time. Just go hang yourself if you lose that game at home to a Frosh QB and 1st time head coach. Mich's D isn't bad at 27th.

[Sunde91]

Edit: Ark -5 not confirmed

-I look over it again and grasp how completely terrible Ark is on D. They gave up 395 yards at home to terrible a terrible Auburn O. Gave up 462 yards @ Vandy that is 105th in total O...

-Ark Sat Night homecoming vs. SC on its 3rd straight road game. Ark is at home for the 1st time in a month
-Ark has the best O SC has played all year. Ark is 9th in Passing. SC is 3rd in pass D, but played 1 team in the top 43 passing all season. That was ECU who threw for 345. SC has played dreadful competition the last 6 weeks that includes Vandy, UK, Navy, Auburn; all bottom 20 in passing. Miss State is 80th in passing. Tenn played with a Frosh QB who threw 10/26 for 2 INTs. SC's D has it coming vs. Ark after playing nothing but shit for 6 weeks straight
-SC is playing with a Frosh RB (Lattimore out) in his 2nd start and a 1st year starting Soph QB in his 4th career start.
-SC has put up just 14 points @Miss State and @Tenn. 14 won't cut it at all here.

Ark should get out in front early and I don't see how SC's O can keep up

[CBASS]

Edit: Ark -5 not confirmed

-Ark Sat Night homecoming vs. SC on its 3rd straight road game. Ark is at home for the 1st time in a month
-Ark has the best O SC has played all year. Ark is 9th in Passing. SC is 3rd in pass D, but played 1 team in the top 43 passing all season. That was ECU who threw for 345. SC has played dreadful competition the last 6 weeks that includes Vandy, UK, Navy, Auburn; all bottom 20 in passing. Miss State is 80th in passing. Tenn played with a Frosh QB who threw 10/26 for 2 INTs. SC's D has it coming vs. Ark after playing nothing but shit for 6 weeks straight
-SC is playing with a Frosh RB (Lattimore out) in his 2nd start and a 1st year starting Soph QB in his 4th career start.
-SC has put up just 14 points @Miss State and @Tenn. 14 won't cut it at all here.

Ark should get out in front early and I don't see how SC's O can keep up

I like Ark, but the spread should be more like Ark -7. Something isn't right with that line and I'm not one of those 'linewatchers'. LOL

[Sunde91]

1-1 +2.00 week 10

Overall: 28-20-2 +16.99

Penn State +3.5 -111
3.33 to win 3

This is the biggest game in Penn State history. Playing for JoePa, Big Ten title run on the line, Senior Day. Students are camping out in front of the stadium. Seniors plan to take the ball to Joe Pa after the win. PSU has a top college crowd to begin with, now they have all the motivation in the world. This crowd can absolutely carry Penn State to a win.

Hilarious that 70% are on Neb with the only angle being distractions. Everything goes out the window once that ball is kicked. The only possible thing distractions can affect is preparation. Well, State is coming off a bye. They had a whole week to prepare before all of this.

Don't even buy the distraction angle to begin with. Florida rolled Cincy in the 09 Sugar Bowl amid the Meyer retirement drama. FSU rolled WVU in the 09 Gator Bowl in Bowden's last game. Was MSU distracted last year without Dantonio after his heart attack? Came out at home to beat Wisc by 10. Raiders distracted when Al Davis died? Won in Houston.

Neb is a joke.
-They just lost to NW at home and only put up 25 points with 122 rush yards on 3.5 ypc. Pathetically terrible. NW has given up 38.6 points before Neb in the B10 and is 84th in rush D at 184 ypg.
-Now Neb goes on the road to play in front of an insane crowd against a State D that is 8th in total, 3rd Scoring (11 ppg), 24th rushing, and 15th in rush D ypc at 3.1.
-Neb doesn't have it this year. They aren't some team who will come storming back after a tough loss. What happened after they got rolled at Wisc? Came out at home Sat night and were down 27-6 to OSU before a fluke comeback off TOs.
-Taylor Martinez is one of the worst passers in the country. He went 11/22 with 3 INTs in his last big road game @Wisc. State is 7th in pass D and should handle him
-Neb's D is average. PSU's horrible O doesn't need a lot of points to get the cover behind their D.

State should win, but 3.5 is a gift

[No coincidences]

1-1 +2.00 week 10

Overall: 28-20-2 +16.99

Penn State +3.5 -111
3.33 to win 3

This is the biggest game in Penn State history. Playing for JoePa, Big Ten title run on the line, Senior Day. Students are camping out in front of the stadium. Seniors plan to take the ball to Joe Pa after the win. PSU has a top college crowd to begin with, now they have all the motivation in the world. This crowd can absolutely carry Penn State to a win.

Hilarious that 70% are on Neb with the only angle being distractions. Everything goes out the window once that ball is kicked. The only possible thing distractions can affect is preparation. Well, State is coming off a bye. They had a whole week to prepare before all of this.

Don't even buy the distraction angle to begin with. Florida rolled Cincy in the 09 Sugar Bowl amid the Meyer retirement drama. FSU rolled WVU in the 09 Gator Bowl in Bowden's last game. Was MSU distracted last year without Dantonio after his heart attack? Came out at home to beat Wisc by 10. Raiders distracted when Al Davis died? Won in Houston.

Neb is a joke.
-They just lost to NW at home and only put up 25 points with 122 rush yards on 3.5 ypc. Pathetically terrible. NW has given up 38.6 points before Neb in the B10 and is 84th in rush D at 184 ypg.
-Now Neb goes on the road to play in front of an insane crowd against a State D that is 8th in total, 3rd Scoring (11 ppg), 24th rushing, and 15th in rush D ypc at 3.1.
-Neb doesn't have it this year. They aren't some team who will come storming back after a tough loss. What happened after they got rolled at Wisc? Came out at home Sat night and were down 27-6 to OSU before a fluke comeback off TOs.
-Taylor Martinez is one of the worst passers in the country. He went 11/22 with 3 INTs in his last big road game @Wisc. State is 7th in pass D and should handle him
-Neb's D is average. PSU's horrible O doesn't need a lot of points to get the cover behind their D.

State should win, but 3.5 is a gift

That's not going to help Wisconsin win the Leaders division.

[Sunde91]

Ha, wouldn't mind a 20-17 Neb win. PSU loses @OSU, OSU loses @Mich, Wisc wins out is still a likely scenario for Wisc to win the div

add
Penn State ML +130
1x to win 1.3

[The Bet Master]

Well Purdue gave you the Ohio State under wins, and Wisconsin basicly now.

[Sunde91]

Stanford ML +115 (Live end of 1st Q)
1x to win 1.15

[Sunde91]

1-2 +1.00 week 11

OSU U 9 future won, will count with the other 3 after the season. Looks I will have to hedge Illini O 6.5 the last week @ Minn. ILL are losing 6 straight after starting 6-0 like only Zook can do

thru week 11

Overall: 29-22-2 +17.99
average price (weighted): +103

3x: 4-0 +12.00
2x: 11-8 +5.4
1x: 14-14-2 +0.59

ATS (FG): 15-8-1 +18.3
(favs 10-4, dogs 5-4-1)
Totals (FG): 7-2 +5.97
(overs 6-2, unders 0-0, TT 1-0)
ML (FG): 2-3 -1.43
Live/2nd Half: 3-7-1 -4.77
(unders 0-2, ATS 2-3, ML 1-2)
1st Q/1st half: 1-2 -1.1

[Sunde91]

Michigan -3 -105
3.15x to win 3

Nebraska is in their 2nd of tough back to back road games. Their win @PSU was very emotional. They were in the middle of that circus after watching the frenzy all week, they were on the field for the emotional pregame prayer, they knew it was a must win game for them to stay in the hunt for the Legends division, and they came out with the win. Now they're back on the road in another must win vs. a MICH team that doesn't have one of the worst Offenses in FBS, which is why they beat PSU. Nebraska is still a vastly overrated joke of a team with one of the worst passers in Football.

Neb's 66th Rush D (166 ypg) has gotten destroyed by everybody. Even 59th Rush O PSU matched their average at 166. 2 weeks ago at home they gave up 207 yards to NW (36th rush O @184). Mich comes in 13th (231).

Neb's O is average at 50th total. Mich is a solid 16th to do enough to contain and let their Offense win it

[The Bet Master]

Agreed, Nebraska had trouble with Miller even when we weren't throwing, Denard should give them fits running the ball.

[Sunde91]

Yeah, 91 rush yards on 9.1 ypc by Miller in that game. Denard averages 86.4

Weeden Heisman Winner +260
1x to win 2.6

Ok State plays Oklahoma at home December 3rd @ 8:00 pm ET on ABC. That is the last regular season game of the year for all of College Football. Everyone will be watching. The Big 12 title and the Nat title are on the line for Ok State. Ok State will be favored conceivably by 3-7 points in that game. They lost the B12 title at home to Ok in the final game last year. To let it happen again to cost them everything would be a historic choke. If Weeden wins that game to cement 12-0, B12 title, Nat title spot, in front of everyone, he is winning it.

The presentation is just one week after that game. It will be completely fresh in the voters minds, which means absolutely everything. The voting process is subjective. It's all about making a lasting impression in the voters minds, and winning. 7 of the last 8 winners have led teams to the Nat Champ.

Richardson, a RB, isn't winning with top QBs to go against and Bama being out of the spotlight with no more big games.
Keenum is the Colt Brenan of 07, sentimental value of the small guy, but no real shot.

This leaves Luck, the most overhyped QB of all time. His prestige took a huge hit after that Oregon loss. His stats are behind Weeden across the board. The only angle there is to vote for him over Weeden is the thought that he "carried his team".

I can't see how they rob Weeden of this if he goes a historic 12-0 with a Nat Title spot for a school like Ok State who's never had anything close to that kind of success.

[Sunde91]

quick on that Heisman. Ok State's choke is the 2nd biggest I can remember

Tenn -1 +100
1x

Home night game Senior Day with QB back. Shameful to not win that vs. in-state rival Vandy no matter how much Tenn has struggled.

[PAULYPOKER]

You my friend are a closet homo sexual,I am now convinced,you make more posts about gays and trannys then anyone on this site,you are only fooling yourself...
Changes are shifting outside the word

(Sunde speaks about his monsters in the closet)

I used to have demons in my room at night
Desire, despair, desire... SOOO MANY MONSTERS!
Oh but now...
(I don't find myself bouncing home whistling buttonhole tunes to make me cry)

[Sunde91]

2-0 +4.00 week 12

Overall: 31-22-2 +21.99

Iowa +7.5 +117
2x to win 2.34

The Nebraska fade train rolls on. 4-0 ATS fading this shit, absurdly overrated team.

Don't care at all about the line and how everyone loves Iowa. This spread was 10.5 preseason for this game. That's where it opened, then moved a point down past the key 10. So trap nonsense goes out the window.

Nebraska was eliminated from Big Ten contention last week. This team didn't even play motivated when it mattered, don't see them playing amazing when it doesn't. They lost SU to NW at home when they had the division lead, blown out @ Mich last week, etc. This is just one of those lost years for teams where they fall flat despite high expectation (big favorite to win their division, top 10 ap to start). Iowa last year starting ap top then finishing 7-5 is an example of a lost year that is routinely seen.

This is the start of a new rivalry called the "Heroes Game", even with its own trophy. It's important to Iowa and their fans. Iowa has been out of contention for weeks, no letdown, just playing for pride as road dogs. Good spot for a Ferentz coached team. I can't say the same for recently eliminated Nebraska

[Sunde91]

LSU -13.5 -110 (Live 21-14 40 seconds before end of 2nd Q)
3.3x to win 3

LSU gets the ball to start the 2nd half and will completely dump truck Ark. Ark has absolutely no chance to match the energy and level of play of LSU. LSU may even get the ball back here and score some more before the end of the half.

Ark fluked to a 14-0 lead while LSU was sleeping. LSU is now wide awake and will roll Ark out of the stadium.

[Sunde91]

WVU ML +200 (Live down 14-0 11 minutes left in 2nd Q)
1x to win 2

WVU O will get it going. Get a TD here and they are in a good spot to win. Momentum already turning a bit and Pitt won't keep it up

[Sunde91]

Northwestern +6 -105
3.15x to win 3

Northwestern ML +215
1x to win 2.15

In a sentence: NW fights to lock up a bowl berth on Senior Day while MSU plays for absolutely nothing with their division clinched.

Fitzgerald will have NW ready. NW is not guaranteed a bowl, though eligible at 6 wins. A bowl win is what Fitzgerald has been chasing since he became coach there in 2006. NW hasn't won a bowl since 1948. NW has been in a bowl the last 3 years, and they lost brutally in each game. This is the game of the year for NW without any question at all, and NW will prepare accordingly.

NW was 2-5 five weeks ago with their season looking hopeless. They've won 4 straight to get to this point, including a huge win @ Nebraska. This team is playing inspired ball. 13 starting Seniors have a chance to end it right. Persa is one of those, their leader and QB, who's battled back from injury to lead this team to where they are now.

MSU is already going to Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship in 1 week. They clinched it in a rout over Indiana a week ago on Senior Day. Now they go right back on the road after an emotional win for a completely meaningless game. Dantonio said he will play full strength and wants to "finish strong". This rarely goes to plan. See 1 week ago when Clemson tried this approach going into NCST. Clemson had their division clinched, like MSU; NCST was fighting for a bowl berth at home, like NW; Clemson played starters, trying to "keep momentum", like MSU. NCST ran Clemson off the field as a 7 point dog.

NW also has the memory of last year, when they played MSU at home. NW was up 24-14 in the 4th Q and lost after 2 MSU TDs in the final 2 minutes. Fitzgerald and Persa were both apart of that just 13 months ago. That would have been a signature upset with for them over then #7 MSU. Now they have another chance vs. the #14 Legends Division Champion Spartans on Senior Day.

Fitzgerald is perfect on Senior Day.

06 - NW (+1) over ILL 27-16
07 - NW (+2.5) over IND 31-28
08 - NW (+3) over ILL 27-10
09 - NW (+7) over #16 Wisc 33-31
10 - NW (+10) over #13 Iowa 21-17 (played ILL at Wrigley Field last year)

5 wins all as dogs and another one after tomorrow

[og4667]

wow great info on that NOrthwestern game...I was just reading how Michigan St really has nothing to play for even though they were trying to say the right thing. Seems like a nice spot to play Northwestern, good luck with your paly

[PAULYPOKER]

Shoot yourself............

You suck.........

I can't wait to fade your next play also........

[Sunde91]

2-3 -1.15 week 13

Overall: 33-25-2 +20.84

NIU ML +260 (Live down 20-13 5 min left)
1x to win 2.6

[Sunde91]

KState 2nd half -6.5 +110
1x to win 1.1

KSU gets the ball to start the 2nd half with some momentum after winning the 2nd Q 10-0. Better team is now awake with momentum and the ball and should close it out on Senior Day

[Sunde91]

LSU -9.5 -110 (Live down 3-0 after UGA FG miss)
2.2x to win 2

Georgia's early magic is done and they didn't even capitalize. LSU should be awake and finish

[No coincidences]

How about the balls on Paul Rhoads?

[PAULYPOKER]

How bout the balls in Sunde's mouth?

[Sunde91]

2-1 +3.6 week 14

Final Regular Season:

Overall: 38-28-2 +35.98
average price (weighted): +113

Futures: 3-2 +11.54
(Weeden Heisman loss counted)

Straight bets: 35-26-2 +24.44

3x: 6-1 +14.85
2x: 12-9 +5.4
1x: 17-17 +3.19

ATS (FG): 17-10-1 +17.15
Totals (FG): Totals (FG): 7-2 +5.97
(overs 6-2, unders 0-0, TT 1-0)
ML (FG): 2-4 -2.43
Live/2nd Half: 7-8-1 +3.83
(unders 0-2, ATS 4-4, ML 3-2)
1st Q/1st half: 1-2 -1.1