Totolover's NCAA RLM

skidaddy28 · 11-05-10, 07:07 PM

Houston +2.5 at my local lets get em boys

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 07:39 PM

F***ken pick 6.

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 07:58 PM

this game is ugggggggly

JFCvsRXB · 11-05-10, 08:04 PM

i won't lose faith if we can keep it within 10 at the half

JFCvsRXB · 11-05-10, 08:21 PM

that was a big td. let's hold em now HOU!!

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 08:27 PM

their pass defense is pathetic

skidaddy28 · 11-05-10, 09:21 PM

how bout it now

jbatcha21 · 11-05-10, 09:47 PM

___

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Eh, what the heck. Houston +2.5 (.5x) L

Tough loss tonight. Let's bounce back tomorrow

rochestertitans · 11-05-10, 11:10 PM

g/l

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 11:18 PM

Army +6.5 (57% of the public is on Air Force with 8087 bets placed. Only playing because it crosses 7)
Maryland +7.5 (Not playing this yet as less than 5,000 bets have been placed. Will keep an eye on it tomorrow)
Clemson -4 (62% are on NC State with 11,791 bets placed. Line moved from +2.5 to +4 for NC State)
South Carolina -4.5 (~6000 bets with 65% on Arkansas. Line moved from +3 to +4.5 for Arkansas)
Hawaii +21 ( 18,263 bets placed with 60% on Boise State and line moved from -22.5 to -21 for Boise State. This one is tough because the spread is pretty high. Game day decision. Not for sure.)
Iowa State +17 (~6000 bets placed with 73% on Nebraska and Nebraska line moved from -18.5 to -17)
Texas A&M +3 (14,380 bets placed with 82% on Oklahoma and Oklahoma line moves -4 to -3)
Idaho +11 (10,635 bets placed with 82% on Nevada and Nevada line moves from -12 to -11.)
New Mexico +9 (KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. Not official play. Not enough bets placed)
UCLA +4.5 (8,467 bets placed with 75% on Oregon State and Oregon State line moving from -6 to -4.5) (UCLA screwed me over last time. Kinda hesitant but will take it.)
Texas Tech +4 (10,922 bets placed with 83% on Missouri and Missouri line moving from -5 to -4)
Arizona State +5 (12,634 bets placed with 72% on USC. Line for USC moved from -6 to -5)

Please be careful with a few of those. I think 2 of em are not official yet because of the number of bets. Will look at those tomorrow.

Wow, that took a while. Feel free to comment and clear up if I made any mistakes. Hope we win some tomorrow boys!

Totolover1409 · 11-06-10, 12:00 AM

cdardano · 11-06-10, 12:06 AM

Thanks TOTO

Lets cash in tomorrow!!

Totolover1409 · 11-06-10, 12:17 AM

Feel pretty good about most of these, particularly because most are home teams. I will be laying off Hawaii since I have a point wager with someone else.

shaggy3000 · 11-06-10, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Army +6.5 (57% of the public is on Air Force with 8087 bets placed. Only playing because it crosses 7) Maryland +7.5 (Not playing this yet as less than 5,000 bets have been placed. Will keep an eye on it tomorrow) Clemson -4 (62% are on NC State with 11,791 bets placed. Line moved from +2.5 to +4 for NC State) South Carolina -4.5 (~6000 bets with 65% on Arkansas. Line moved from +3 to +4.5 for Arkansas) Hawaii +21 ( 18,263 bets placed with 60% on Boise State and line moved from -22.5 to -21 for Boise State. This one is tough because the spread is pretty high. Game day decision. Not for sure.) Iowa State +17 (~6000 bets placed with 73% on Nebraska and Nebraska line moved from -18.5 to -17) Texas A&M +3 (14,380 bets placed with 82% on Oklahoma and Oklahoma line moves -4 to -3) Idaho +11 (10,635 bets placed with 82% on Nevada and Nevada line moves from -12 to -11.) New Mexico +9 (KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. Not official play. Not enough bets placed) UCLA +4.5 (8,467 bets placed with 75% on Oregon State and Oregon State line moving from -6 to -4.5) (UCLA screwed me over last time. Kinda hesitant but will take it.) Texas Tech +4 (10,922 bets placed with 83% on Missouri and Missouri line moving from -5 to -4) Arizona State +5 (12,634 bets placed with 72% on USC. Line for USC moved from -6 to -5) Please be careful with a few of those. I think 2 of em are not official yet because of the number of bets. Will look at those tomorrow. Wow, that took a while. Feel free to comment and clear up if I made any mistakes. Hope we win some tomorrow boys!

i am far from saying i know much about how this works but dont you have to wait til closer to game time to make a move on the plays?

Totolover1409 · 11-06-10, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by shaggy3000

i am far from saying i know much about how this works but dont you have to wait til closer to game time to make a move on the plays?

Yes you are correct but several people have asked to see potential plays for tommrow so I'm only trying to inform everyone that these are the potential plays I see.

Totolover1409 · 11-06-10, 01:44 AM

Recall from the previous posts that I've tried to wait til the last twenty mins. Like I waited for houstons line to move back to 2.5

Philphan · 11-06-10, 02:15 AM

What about Michigan -3.5? Opened at -2 and 58% of public is on Illinois

Totolover1409 · 11-06-10, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by Philphan

What about Michigan -3.5? Opened at -2 and 58% of public is on Illinois

I have Michigan opening up at -3 and staying at -3. Will check again tomorrow

Aussiecapper101 · 11-06-10, 04:22 AM

Appreciate the effort toto. Kill them tonight

Dogway · 11-06-10, 07:52 AM

I know we have rules for RLM but... I think for my bets I am going to refine them just a bit. At least 65%. Alot of bets comparitively speaking when you look at the rest of the field of bets that day. A friend of mine told me to stay away from that game last night and I did. It was only 60/40. I believe you wont have as many winners but you wont have as many loosers either. I also believe that your winning percentage has to go up. Just my opinion.

The DOG

Now lets get some cash.

MrCondor · 11-06-10, 09:06 AM

If you stay with upper echelon teams you're better off. Why bet a team like Houston or Army for that matter?

One game I am on big time is South Carolina. They're at home, they got their bad game out of the way a few weeks ago and they have their sights on the SEC Championship game. Arkansas on the other hand has a great offense but no D. How in the world are they going to cover those 3 physical receivers SC has plus stop Lattimore?

So. Carolina is the play of the week.

Strangler · 11-06-10, 09:16 AM

Seems like some folks are allowing "gut feelings" and results based thinking to enter into this which sort of defeats the purpose of using a system or a set of rules.

Johnny 55 · 11-06-10, 09:17 AM

RLM is simply a device that allows those with 4th grade math skills to determine which side the sharp money is on. Is the sharp money always right, no, but they are about 57% of the time, which is why they are sharp and make money and posters on this board say things like: "It is better to stay with the upper echelon teams". All RLM plays are basically buying undervalued stocks due to public misperception. If a team got blown out last week or looked horrible and is playing a team coming off a win, they are probably undervalued and sharps get action down in relation to the value they perceive from public overreaction.

Another massive myth about winning bettors is that they only play a few games. Sharps play a massive amount of games,anything they perceive to have value and their bet size is in direct relation to the edge they perceive they have. Winning percentages are highly overrated, if I win 54% of my games but I play 25 games for $1000 each, I will make more money over the long haul than the person who wins 60% of their games but only plays 2 games per week, you are just pushing money through a profitable system, the more you push the more you make. End of rant.

gangeriver · 11-06-10, 09:34 AM

What about Kent St +3 ??

doin · 11-06-10, 09:42 AM

please explain to me?

383 - Oregon State

384 - UCLA
20935 -6 -105
+6 -105 -4.5 -104
+4.5 -106
Smart money took UCLA at +6. I'm going to get it at +4.5. How come these are enuf points?

Aussiecapper101 · 11-06-10, 09:42 AM

Well said Johnny

DarkNite · 11-06-10, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by MrCondor

If you stay with upper echelon teams you're better off. Why bet a team like Houston or Army for that matter?

One game I am on big time is South Carolina. They're at home, they got their bad game out of the way a few weeks ago and they have their sights on the SEC Championship game. Arkansas on the other hand has a great offense but no D. How in the world are they going to cover those 3 physical receivers SC has plus stop Lattimore?

So. Carolina is the play of the week.

I like this play very much. BOL

Footballguru · 11-06-10, 09:53 AM

are you playing maryland +7.5??

Strange Design · 11-06-10, 09:59 AM

Good luck boys and girls. Let's cash it.

mangina11 · 11-06-10, 10:05 AM

12:00 games to watch - Air Force v Army and NC ST v Clemson. Lets wait about a half hour, as that clemson line is getting right on that 60% mark. Army is under the 60/40 mark, but as total said it crossed the magic # of 7.... The longer we wait the more information we will get

mangina11 · 11-06-10, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Footballguru

are you playing maryland +7.5??

Maryland would be a no play, bets are 50/50, and it is better to stay away from games with key injuries (Jacory Harris QB, MIA) That would account for much of the line movement

EXhoosier10 · 11-06-10, 10:12 AM

Good luck this weeknd everyone

GGPLAYER · 11-06-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by mangina11

Maryland would be a no play, bets are 50/50, and it is better to stay away from games with key injuries (Jacory Harris QB, MIA) That would account for much of the line movement

I agree with this and brought it up yesterday as well. I throw games out which lose key players like this.

playr101 · 11-06-10, 10:25 AM

lets get this first game.... clemson!!

-playr101