Totolover's NCAA RLM

balls2wall · 11-05-10, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by goallinebob

hey Toto,, can you post plays as you see them pending,,

My thoughts is what is your opinion with these plays

Mia opened at -11 at sportsinsights and now is -7.5 = a 3.5 differential
whats your take on this game

Oregon opened at 27.5 and now is -35,, =7.5 line move

fresno started at -2 and now is a +1.5

Wyo was a -11 and now -9 = 2 point move

I know all the rules must fit but if all rules are met what is your thoughts

sup bob?

maryland looks possible vs Miami, but only 55%/45% split right now

oregon is going the wrong direction for rlm

fresno is going the wrong direction for rlm

n mexico is shaping up as a possible play against wyoming

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 01:02 PM

Can someone please post the constraints for RLM? I'd like to help spot them, but want to make sure I'm looking for the correct parameters. Also, I suggest everyone who contributes to the thread use sportsinsights for their data, so we're all posting uniform data without any confusion.

GoldenYAK · 11-05-10, 01:18 PM

I think we should use pregame for consensus %. They have more contributing books. Sports insight does not get info from pinny or bookmaker. for example look at the info for tonight nhl panthers game. consensus info from two sites is completely different. also pregame always has higher # of bets. The opener however from pregame is not reliable.

balls2wall · 11-05-10, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Can someone please post the constraints for RLM? I'd like to help spot them, but want to make sure I'm looking for the correct parameters. Also, I suggest everyone who contributes to the thread use sportsinsights for their data, so we're all posting uniform data without any confusion.

here are the rules from the other thread, but this is a different thread so they aren't necessarily the rules here, but at least a good starting point

Rules:
#1 Must be at least 1pt line move to justify RLM
#2 If less that 60% on one side there must be 1.5 pt+ RLM.
#3 Only exception to Rule #2 is if it crosses 3 or 7.
#4 Don't play a game if less than 5,000 bets have been placed on the game.
#5 Don't play games with over 20 pt spread. (Added after reviewing last 4 weeks)

goallinebob · 11-05-10, 01:26 PM

thnx balls,,Backpacker posted 1/2 weeks when Oregon blew away ucla he noted that if a line jumps that far ahead poss the play would be the favorite,, does anybody have that note as when he also noted maybe sometimes we need to ignore bad teams too,, believe it was Akron he was noting,, so would not Oregon again come into play this week wit an 7.5 point spread

ebbearsfb1 · 11-05-10, 01:31 PM

Problem with the miami game as well as washington is true line movement or cause of qb injuries

FuzzyNugs · 11-05-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by goallinebob

thnx balls,,Backpacker posted 1/2 weeks when Oregon blew away ucla he noted that if a line jumps that far ahead poss the play would be the favorite,, does anybody have that note as when he also noted maybe sometimes we need to ignore bad teams too,, believe it was Akron he was noting,, so would not Oregon again come into play this week wit an 7.5 point spread

The line moved after Locker was listed as OUT for the game. Big loss for Wash. But it's also a easy week for Oregon to take there foot off the peddle a hair. I'm not touching it.

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 01:35 PM

Western/Central Michigan is not RLM.

Will be playing this if the line doesn't move until 20 mins before the game.

Houston +1.5. Small play on Houston ML.

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 01:40 PM

I will have a list of pending plays by tonight for ya'll to look over and for us to discuss. Once the Houston game ends.

shipsn2010 · 11-05-10, 01:41 PM

what do you think about HAWIAI, TX AM, AZ ST AND TX TEC they look like they fall into the rlm

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by shipsn2010

what do you think about HAWIAI, TX AM, AZ ST AND TX TEC they look like they fall into the rlm

Yes, these all look like potential RLM plays. Will post all of em tonight!

GGPLAYER · 11-05-10, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by goallinebob

hey Toto,, can you post plays as you see them pending,,

My thoughts is what is your opinion with these plays

Mia opened at -11 at sportsinsights and now is -7.5 = a 3.5 differential
whats your take on this game

Oregon opened at 27.5 and now is -35,, =7.5 line move

fresno started at -2 and now is a +1.5

Wyo was a -11 and now -9 = 2 point move

I know all the rules must fit but if all rules are met what is your thoughts

Houston is a play tonight: +1.5

I think the move on Miami may have more to do with their starting QB being out. Plus they may be missing their RB. Anything over 2 pts of movement is a red flag to me.

Oregon is not RLM. I read so many people on PB's thread that would just throw games up on thread asking if it's a play or not. Guys it's really not that complicated. The line has to move in the wrong direction. 88% of the action is on Oregon is the line has gone from 27.5 to 35. If it went to like 25 then we would have RLM. Think of it as "the line improves" for the team getting all the action.

Fresno St...again not RLM.

Wyoming...now this is RLM....BUT you would bet New Mexico not Wy. Reason being the majority of bettors are on Wy thus casugin the RLM movement. If this line holds you bet NM +9.

Holy sh*t in the time it took me to write this up you guys already posted everything I just said

PLAYA-PLAYA · 11-05-10, 02:43 PM

TOTO----Thanks Bro-------BEST OF LUCK TO YOU----"REFUSE TO LOSE"

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 03:02 PM

Line moved to +2. Still a 1.5 point movement. Hope it doesn't move more than that. That's why I usually wait til the end.

goallinebob · 11-05-10, 03:19 PM

thanks guys just wanted confirmations on those few,,,,,,,,,,,,

goallinebob · 11-05-10, 03:23 PM

has anybody looked at NBA and NHL yet,,,,,,hate jumping all over

Strange Design · 11-05-10, 03:29 PM

Looks like Bookmaker is already back up to 2.5 and Pinny is juicing the -2 at -108. I may stay away from this one unless it drops back to 1.5, but good luck to those of you who are on it.

GGPLAYER · 11-05-10, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Line moved to +2. Still a 1.5 point movement. Hope it doesn't move more than that. That's why I usually wait til the end.

Great advice! I'm with you on that brother.

714cuzzin · 11-05-10, 04:11 PM

where r u guys going to find consensus for these games?

figue · 11-05-10, 04:12 PM

houston move +2

figue · 11-05-10, 04:17 PM

Houston is 9-3 SU coming off a win by 21 points or more the last 3 seasons
Houston is 14-1 SU in home games the last 3 seasons

thienlong82 · 11-05-10, 04:34 PM

Thanks for helping out Toto.

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by GoldenYAK

I think we should use pregame for consensus %. They have more contributing books. Sports insight does not get info from pinny or bookmaker. for example look at the info for tonight nhl panthers game. consensus info from two sites is completely different. also pregame always has higher # of bets. The opener however from pregame is not reliable.

Im good with pregame for consensus if thats what people want to agree on.

Tien · 11-05-10, 05:24 PM

houston is getting +3 now :-/

shawood · 11-05-10, 05:37 PM

so is houston not a play now for rlm

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 05:57 PM

Line has moved back to +3. It is no longer a play. For those of you who had already placed the wager, BOL. Still have a feeling Houston will cover the spread but I'm not gonna risk it.

playr101 · 11-05-10, 06:02 PM

im already on it..

hope it works out for us..

-playr101

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 06:02 PM

From my sources, the line has moved back to +2.5. What about you guys?

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 06:03 PM

i see it at +2.5 now

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 06:05 PM

Eh, what the heck. Houston +2.5 (.5x)

jas19illini · 11-05-10, 06:07 PM

hahaha

Totolover1409 · 11-05-10, 06:10 PM

Not all RLM are gonna hit. Similar to how we saw RLM on Akron but knew they were just a crappy team and they got blown out, I like to play those RLM that I feel most comfortable with. Nevertheless, like how I do on the NFL RLM thread, I will be keeping track of how RLM does as a whole, regardless of how confident I feel about it. Hope you guys all agree with that.

wacked · 11-05-10, 06:30 PM

The game is still 30 mins away. The line never moved to +3 at Pinny. It did move to +2.5 though and some books did move to +3 for a bit.
As of right now it is still a play and has been since it initially moved to +2.5.

Here's some games to keep an eye out for later in the week.
The lines could of course change and no longer be plays along with here might be some new games.
Posting these for people who like to see what might be out there.

NCAA:
Houston +2.5 from +3.5 with 62% on Central Florida.
Maryland +7.5 from +11 with 52% on Miami (Starting QB is out, true freshman looked good @ Virginia last week - Not a true RLM due to QB change)
Clemson -4 from -2.5 with 62% on North Carolina.
Northwestern @ Penn St. Line did move back to +6.5 but it was at +5.5 for awhile with majority on Penn St. Keep an eye on it.
South Carolina -4.5 from -3 with 65% on Arkansas (Believed due to Greg Childs being out for the year. Leading WR for Arkansas, iffy RLM due to that fact)
Hawaii +21 from +22.5 with 60% on Boise St.
Texas Tech +4 from +5 with 83% on Mizzu.
Idaho +11 from +12 with 80% on Nevada

NFL
Chicago -3 from -1 but only 51% on Buffalo.
Arizona +8 from +9 but only 51% on Minn.
Raiders -2.5 from -1 but only 52% on Chiefs.
Cowboys +7.5 from +9 with 68% on Green Bay.
Keep an eye on New England and Cleveland game. Might move towards Cleveland.

JFCvsRXB · 11-05-10, 06:52 PM

5dimes just moved to +2 on Houston

wacked · 11-05-10, 06:56 PM

Pinny is what I use to justify actual line when it comes down to picking at the end and it has moved back to +2 also.