Totolover's NCAA RLM

[GGPLAYER]

From my sources, the line has moved back to +2.5. What about you guys?

I wish I was around a computer last night when this was all going on. I backed out of betting the game because of all the late movement. I tried to state this on PB76's thread but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. For NCAA as opposed to NFL I like to see at least 1.5 of RLM and have it stay there or go below. If it does not I won't bet it. Just a heads up for you all when your betting on today's games. Beleive me when I say it's saved me from making a number of losing bets.

[wacked]

Toto I argree with most everything you put down.
Maryland isn't a play because they have most of the action with 53% on them right now.
The Arkansas game line moved because Arkansas's #1 WR and a top SEC receiver is out for the year after getting hurt in the last game.
The line moved after that injury came out. I can't play that as a RLM.
The same thing with the Miami game due to Miami's starting QB being out.
Look to add UTEP to your lines if more bets get on them. Under 5,000 right now but line has moved 1.5
Other than that, I see the same games.

[ebbearsfb1]

lets see what totol has for an official list, should be an exicting day

[Johnny 55]

Also, all of you are completely losing value by waiting to gain more information before placing your bets right before kickoff, the late movement back the other way is just all the sharps selling back their initial position in order to go for a middle or they are simply scalping part of their position for a small profit.

[wacked]

I wish I was around a computer last night when this was all going on. I backed out of betting the game because of all the late movement. I tried to state this on PB76's thread but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. For NCAA as opposed to NFL I like to see at least 1.5 of RLM and have it stay there or go below. If it does not I won't bet it. Just a heads up for you all when your betting on today's games. Beleive me when I say it's saved me from making a number of losing bets.

Pinny's line ended at +2 so it was a 1.5 line move in the end.
If you only want to play 1.5 line moves then that's up to you, but this game was a 1.5 at closing.

[wacked]

Also, all of you are completely losing value by waiting to gain more information before placing your bets right before kickoff, the late movement back the other way is just all the sharps selling back their initial position in order to go for a middle or they are simply scalping part of their position for a small profit.

Then you should be rich since you know all about who is going to win.
Since the opposite could be true with the line being moved back to get a better line on the favorite and then the money pours in so the line moves back. Nobody knows for sure unless you have inside knowledge as to where the money is coming from.

[Lendog]

I believe the nebraska line moved due to the fact that the starting QB is a question mark still. It may be Cody Green or Zac Lee. It maybe T. Martinez and if so there would be some value in the line movement on the NU side. Tread lightly in this one.

[mangina11]

Also, all of you are completely losing value by waiting to gain more information before placing your bets right before kickoff, the late movement back the other way is just all the sharps selling back their initial position in order to go for a middle or they are simply scalping part of their position for a small profit.

Hard to try and middle 1 point of line movement....... I can see your point on spreads that move 3,4,and 5 or more points, but how many people really try and middle a line move from -3.5 to -4.5?

[ebbearsfb1]

any one see totol today?

[jbatcha21]

Yea, whats the plays for 12:00. Are Clemson -4 and Army +6h a go?

[mangina11]

Make those Clemson and Army plays official boys BOL lets start the day out right and win some money. Enjoy the games and ill be back later

[mangina11]

i got clemson at -3.5 (bookmaker)

[GGPLAYER]

Pinny's line ended at +2 so it was a 1.5 line move in the end.
If you only want to play 1.5 line moves then that's up to you, but this game was a 1.5 at closing.

Not going to get in a pissing match over this but I also said and if I did'nt make it clear that I want a line to stay at 1.5 of RLM or more. When it's like an hour before kick-off and it moves to 1 or less it should raise a red flag. That move back to -2 was not till like 10 min before kick-off. I don't use a single book to make that determination anyways. I don't know why guys keep fighting me here. I am giving a piece of advice and it's been more than solid. If a game only moves 1 point they don't win as often.

[wacked]

Yes Clemson and Army are plays still.

[ebbearsfb1]

so clemson and army early?

sounds good

[jbatcha21]

I got +7 from my local on Army.

[ebbearsfb1]

same here good luck

[wacked]

Not going to get in a pissing match over this but I also said and if I did'nt make it clear that I want a line to stay at 1.5 of RLM or more. When it's like an hour before kick-off and it moves to 1 or less it should raise a red flag. That move back to -2 was not till like 10 min before kick-off. I don't use a single book to make that determination anyways. I don't know why guys keep fighting me here. I am giving a piece of advice and it's been more than solid. If a game only moves 1 point they don't win as often.

There is no point in arguing, just look at the line movement from Pinny itself.
The line was at +2 for over 2 hours before the game started. It was a good play for your "1.5 rule".

5-Nov 7:47pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2.5 +100 HOU+2.5 -110 63 -109 63 -101 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:49pm CENTFL-123 HOU+111 CENTFL-2 -105 HOU+2 -105 63.5 -109 63.5 -101 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:51pm CENTFL-123 HOU+111 CENTFL-2 -105 HOU+2 -105 63.5 -109 63.5 -101 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:52pm CENTFL-123 HOU+111 CENTFL-2 -105 HOU+2 -105 63.5 -109 63.5 -101 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:54pm CENTFL-123 HOU+111 CENTFL-2 -105 HOU+2 -105 63.5 -103 63.5 -107 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:57pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -102 63.5 -108 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 7:59pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:39pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:42pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:44pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:47pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:49pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:52pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:53pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:55pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:57pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 9:59pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5
5-Nov 10:01pm CENTFL-124 HOU+112 CENTFL-2 -107 HOU+2 -103 63.5 -101 63.5 -109 CENTFL+.5 HOU+.5

[jbatcha21]

Clemson just dropped to -3h on BetJamaica

[shawood]

where is toto?

[PerfecTrader]

where is toto?

Prolly not in Kansas

[ebbearsfb1]

well if hes from cal or that area its only 9am over there just a guess though

[dvb02]

Prolly not in Kansas

funny chit!!!

[GGPLAYER]

[quote=wacked;7283547]There is no point in arguing, just look at the line movement from Pinny itself.
The line was at +2 for over 2 hours before the game started. It was a good play for your "1.5 rule".


11/05 18:17 -2½ -110 / +2½ +100
11/05 18:22 -2½ -113 / +2½ +102
11/05 18:36 -2½ -110 / +2½ +100
11/05 18:43 -2½ -108 / +2½ -102
11/05 18:56 -2½ -103 / +2½ -107
11/05 19:00 -2½ -105 / +2½ -105
11/05 19:05 -2½ -103 / +2½ -107
11/05 19:08 -2½ +100 / +2½ -110
11/05 19:10 -2½ -102 / +2½ -108
11/05 19:17 -2½ +100 / +2½ -110
11/05 19:51 -2 -105 / +2 -105
11/05 19:59 -2 -107 / +2 -103

9 min before kickoff it went to +2. This is cut and pasted straight right from SBR Odds. Don't know where you got your numbers from. Like I said I don't go by a single book anyways.

11/05 18:13 -3 -110 / +3 -110
11/05 18:14 -3 -105 / +3 -115
11/05 18:23 -3 -110 / +3 -110
11/05 18:24 -3 -115 / +3 -105
11/05 18:25 -3 -105 / +3 -115
11/05 18:57 -2½ -110 / +2½ -110
11/05 19:22 -2 -110 / +2 -110
11/05 19:31 -2½ -110 / +2½ -110
11/05 19:54 -2 -110 / +2 -110

This was Bookmaker. Again my point being too much movement too close to kickoff. Red flag is all I was trying to say.

[balls2wall]

Prolly not in Kansas

not anymore

[EricZ116]

I'm on a few of these right now, gotta run in a few so locked some in before the official post. BOL boys!

[GoldenYAK]

I agree with GGplayer, if there is that type of line movement that close to game in wrong direction you should probably stay away. That's why its important to wait till the last min.

[ebbearsfb1]

got a weird feeling about army today... hope we can cash it, just had issues with them in the past

[DarkNite]

It looks to me Clemson is dead.

[Aussiecapper101]

so.... on to the next set of games then

[wacked]

GGPlayer, what are you arguing about?
SBRODDs = 1 book = 5Dimes
Those lines I posted were Pinny's line movement.
Pinny is the sharpest book out there and the line was +2 and never went back to 2.5
If you want to use 5Dimes as your deciding factor than go for it.
Just don't get upset when the best book out there never did go back to 2.5
I understand your point, but lots of games at different books will have some late movement back and forth.
I can find other books that were 2.5 - You will always find books off by a 1/2, it's not that hard.
Pick your deciding book and stick with that one. If Houston had of won last night you wouldn't even be here talking about this game. You can't second guess a pick.

[ebbearsfb1]

guys just move on to the next set of games...


and an air force td right b4 half would be a dagger

[ebbearsfb1]

and they score un real... i hate army they do nothing but suck for me

[wacked]

I agree with GGplayer, if there is that type of line movement that close to game in wrong direction you should probably stay away. That's why its important to wait till the last min.

It depends on which book you were looking at.
Pinny didn't move on the game were are discussing. He was using 5dimes as the book he is using.
It's up to each person to decide which book they will use as their deciding factor. In the game GG and I are discussing Pinny did not move, while he is saying 5Dimes did. It's a difference of which book you use.

So in general the rule would be yes depending on the book you normally use to make your deciding factor.

[Totolover1409]

Sorry everyone. I've been away. My grandfather is suffering from Parkinson's and he doesn't have much time. I hope you all were able to figure out what plays would meet the criteria based on the information I put out last night.

It seems that many of you disagree with playing RLM with just a 1.0 point movement. I agree that NCAA should have at least 1.5 points, but again, my post last night was to make everyone aware of potential and solid RLM plays.

At this point, I did not take any early games as I've been visiting my grandfather but Maryland is looking decent, and Army isn't too far behind. I dunno wtf is happening to Clemson. BEST OF LUCK and I hope you guys cash the early games and we will move on to the afternoon games.