Lasker's MMA Picks

[Playmaker]

You got a nice price with Franklin -150 its now at -180 ..Good Luck Lasker

[lasker]

You got a nice price with Franklin -150 its now at -180 ..Good Luck Lasker

Adding (from the sportsbook lines):

Daniel Roberts -115: 3u to win 2.61u


Jeremy Stephens -135: 5u to win 3.7u


Brad Tavares -175: 2.5u to win 1.43u


Jacob Volkmann +150: 3u to win 4.5u

[lasker]

hmm... now Bookmaker opens Daniel Roberts at +110. perhaps I'm way off on this one, but I'll add another unit on him:

Daniel Roberts +110: 1u to win 1.1u

[lasker]

I'll add a few Dream plays as well:

Overeem -385: 5u to win 1.3u

Mizuno +350: 2 to win 7u

Fernandes -185: 2u to win 1.08u

[lasker]

Edgar wins by 5 round decision +205: 1u to win 2.05u

[lasker]

What's Dong by dec and Guida by dec at on 5dimes??

What's Dong by dec and Guida by dec at on 5dimes??

lines just came out for these props.

Kim wins by 3 round decision +145: 1u to win 1.45u

Guida wins by 3 round decision +235 -- not betting it because I already put 5u on the fight going to decision at +160. I do think there's still some value with this prop though.

[Vaughany]

lines just came out for these props.

Kim wins by 3 round decision +145: 1u to win 1.45u

Guida wins by 3 round decision +235 -- not betting it because I already put 5u on the fight going to decision at +160. I do think there's still some value with this prop though.

+235! It's only +125 on paddy. They're really tightenin! Gotta hope that the other UK sites offer closer to +235 by the end of the week! And Kim by decision is only +110 so +145 is great as well . Are they 5dimes?

[Vaughany]

Adding (from the sportsbook lines):

Daniel Roberts -115: 3u to win 2.61u


Jeremy Stephens -135: 5u to win 3.7u


Brad Tavares -175: 2.5u to win 1.43u


Jacob Volkmann +150: 3u to win 4.5u

Like these plays Lask . I expected Roberts to be in -130 to -150 range so to get him as dog at plus odds is a result. I'll be happy to get him on pinnacle at Evens hopefully. Stephens at -135 is good value as well, one thing guaranteed is that we wont see Davis pull off a Guillard and get a decision from landing a couple glancing punches!

[Mr.Kitty]

I like Roberts, was hoping to get him as a dog.

[lasker]

+235! It's only +125 on paddy. They're really tightenin! Gotta hope that the other UK sites offer closer to +235 by the end of the week! And Kim by decision is only +110 so +145 is great as well . Are they 5dimes?

yep, all my prop bets are with 5dimes.

[lasker]

DREAM parlay at -133: Tokoro -450 / Overeem -505 / Ishii -505: 2u to win 1.5u

[lasker]

Sakuraba +195: 1u to win 1.95u

I've been waiting for Saku to reach +200 but ok, it's close enough! Zaromskis takes a lot of chances and throws a lot of kicks which can result in him getting taken down. On the ground Sakuraba has the ability to tool him, even if he is 72 years past his prime. I also question Zaromskis' mental state going into this fight. He seems distracted.

[lasker]

Diego Nunes +205: 1.5u to win 3.08u

[lasker]

That's strange, I was putting Mizuno +280 (vs Kharitonov) in a few parlays on 5dimes and suddenly his line disappeared. I checked on bestfightodds and noticed that his odds have rocketed up to +385. But that +385 line does not appear for me and never did, instead the odds just disappeared altogether and I can't bet on the fight anymore.

[Vaughany]

lines just came out for these props.

Kim wins by 3 round decision +145: 1u to win 1.45u

Guida wins by 3 round decision +235 -- not betting it because I already put 5u on the fight going to decision at +160. I do think there's still some value with this prop though.

Just sorted out a Sportbet account and eventually got some money transferred in to it! Have Kim by decision at +155 and Vera by decision at +424. Guida by dec has gone down to +195, think Im gonna hold off and hopefully it will go up again to better than +200. Maynard by dec at +142 is tempting!

[lasker]

I capped Maynard by decision at around +150 so that's more or less where I feel it should be. I like your Kim by decision and Vera by decision bets, you got good odds on both. Yeah, there was a lot more value on Guida by decision before, but if it doesn't go back up I think it's still worth a shot at +195. I should get a Sportbet account if I can, looks like they might actually accept evil American bettors like me!

[Vaughany]

I capped Maynard by decision at around +150 so that's more or less where I feel it should be. I like your Kim by decision and Vera by decision bets, you got good odds on both. Yeah, there was a lot more value on Guida by decision before, but if it doesn't go back up I think it's still worth a shot at +195. I should get a Sportbet account if I can, looks like they might actually accept evil American bettors like me!

You have a 5dimes account don't you? They are the same as Sportbet I believe!

I was gonna play Guida at +125 on Paddy anyway so is defintely value at +195 and will take it tomorrow if it hasnt gone up by then... just pains me to even take that when I know that it was at +250 range at one point!

[lasker]

Adding more on Kim wins by 3 round decision, now +155: 2u to win 3.1u

Diaz wins in round 3 +1270: 0.5u to win 6.35u

[Vaughany]

Adding more on Kim wins by 3 round decision, now +155: 2u to win 3.1u

Diaz wins in round 3 +1270: 0.5u to win 6.35u

Im gonna hedge with Diaz in Rnd 3 as well.

[lasker]

Edgar points handicap +3½ -120: 2.4u to win 2u

[lasker]

Gomi wins by submission +1745: 0.5u to win 8.73u

A hedge; this line is just too high in my opinion. Guida has been submitted plenty of times before, and if Gomi knocks him down and rocks him without KO'ing him I could see him finishing by RNC.

[Squareguy]

What are your thoughts behind the Volkmann/McKee pick? Been thinking about this one, and haven't been tipped in either direction yet.

[lasker]

What are your thoughts behind the Volkmann/McKee pick? Been thinking about this one, and haven't been tipped in either direction yet.

McKee has faced a lot of sub-par competition lately. Of course has no problem when he has the clear wrestling advantage, but imo that is not the case here. Volkmann is an excellent wrestler himself and has a dangerous submission game. Also, McKee's cardio might be an issue, given his age and the fact that it's his UFC debut, which often brings the notorious "adrenaline dump." I'm sure McKee will score some takedowns but I don't know if he'll be able to keep Volkmann down. At the same time, if Volkmann takes McKee down, or reverses him, then McKee is in relatively unfamiliar territory and will be in danger of getting submitted. McKee has a stellar record but hasn't defeated a notable opponent in quite some time. Volkmann's only losses are to Thiago and Kampmann, and there's really no shame in that. I think this fight will be very competitive.

Having said that, the line has moved against me and that's never a good thing. I got Volkmann at +150 and he's now at +200. I'm not putting more on Volkmann for fear that I might be badly mistaken. Maybe McKee really is a much better MMA wrestler, but I guess we'll find out.

[Squareguy]

McKee has faced a lot of sub-par competition lately. Of course has no problem when he has the clear wrestling advantage, but imo that is not the case here. Volkmann is an excellent wrestler himself and has a dangerous submission game. Also, McKee's cardio might be an issue, given his age and the fact that it's his UFC debut, which often brings the notorious "adrenaline dump." I'm sure McKee will score some takedowns but I don't know if he'll be able to keep Volkmann down. At the same time, if Volkmann takes McKee down, or reverses him, then McKee is in relatively unfamiliar territory and will be in danger of getting submitted. McKee has a stellar record but hasn't defeated a notable opponent in quite some time. Volkmann's only losses are to Thiago and Kampmann, and there's really no shame in that. I think this fight will be very competitive.

Having said that, the line has moved against me and that's never a good thing. I got Volkmann at +150 and he's now at +200. I'm not putting more on Volkmann for fear that I might be badly mistaken. Maybe McKee really is a much better MMA wrestler, but I guess we'll find out.

It seems to me that the line moved a lot after a few articles on McKee came out...mostly of him talking himself up.

A lot of the public is taking his hype at this point, but what do they know? I agree with you and I'm going to throw a small amount on Christmas.

[rocky mattioli]

It seems to me that the line moved a lot after a few articles on McKee came out...mostly of him talking himself up.

A lot of the public is taking his hype at this point, but what do they know? I agree with you and I'm going to throw a small amount on Christmas.

agree with you guys...we all know that the chances of mckee riding out a decision are significant...but he is 40....and volkmann`s losses were to excellent guys at 170.....

add in the fact that the guy has better submissions and was a big 10 champion wrestler and finished top 5 in the ncaa`s 3 times...

i mean,hell...what more do we want out of a 2-1 dog?...the fave `s stock-in-trade is the same as our dog...and our dog might be naturally bigger,younger and has a better all around skillset(imo)....

if mckee rides him for 3,so be it...i`d take this shot every time

[spargament]

McKee has faced a lot of sub-par competition lately. Of course has no problem when he has the clear wrestling advantage, but imo that is not the case here. Volkmann is an excellent wrestler himself and has a dangerous submission game. Also, McKee's cardio might be an issue, given his age and the fact that it's his UFC debut, which often brings the notorious "adrenaline dump." I'm sure McKee will score some takedowns but I don't know if he'll be able to keep Volkmann down. At the same time, if Volkmann takes McKee down, or reverses him, then McKee is in relatively unfamiliar territory and will be in danger of getting submitted. McKee has a stellar record but hasn't defeated a notable opponent in quite some time. Volkmann's only losses are to Thiago and Kampmann, and there's really no shame in that. I think this fight will be very competitive.

Having said that, the line has moved against me and that's never a good thing. I got Volkmann at +150 and he's now at +200. I'm not putting more on Volkmann for fear that I might be badly mistaken. Maybe McKee really is a much better MMA wrestler, but I guess we'll find out.

Finally some analysis I can get behind..if this fight goes to the ground Volkmann will have McKee tapping before he can say 'I quit'. His BJJ is really that good.

[lasker]

Good to see some others on Volkmann too. The continued line movement against us is troubling, but if Volkmann is healthy I see absolutely no reason why he should be such a dog. GL

[rocky mattioli]

Good to see some others on Volkmann too. The continued line movement against us is troubling, but if Volkmann is healthy I see absolutely no reason why he should be such a dog. GL

in every other sport,when the line moves against you,it`s usually a good thing...the public is wrong more than they`re right,it would seem...

[lasker]

I feel like in MMA, the late line movement is often sharp line movement. But perhaps you're right; I really haven't tracked it enough to know.

[99Boxster]

without having to dig, what was ur mma record for 2010?

[Poppa Catfish]

When you have two good grapplers like McKee and Volkmann it usually goes down to striking, I think McKee has an advantage there but I can understand taking Christmas at this price

Real glad to see somebody else on Roberts

[lasker]

When you have two good grapplers like McKee and Volkmann it usually goes down to striking, I think McKee has an advantage there but I can understand taking Christmas at this price Real glad to see somebody else on Roberts

Totally agree, Volkmann's standup is so bad that it almost makes Jake Shields look like Anderson Silva. But McKee does what his instinct tells him to do, and that's wrestle. A smart game plan for him would be to just try to keep it on the feet, but I think he's going to make it a wrestling match and even if he has a slight edge there as well (which I'm not convinced of), Volkmann is very good in the scrambles and can at least threaten with submissions.

without having to dig, what was ur mma record for 2010?

I honestly don't know for this thread, I'd have to go back and dig and I don't think I was that hot. Lately I've had a string of mostly good results, but I had one horrible night (UFC 123) that really cost me. In real life I bet too many parlays and lost a little bit overall because of that. My result on this thread for DREAM Dynamite a couple nights ago was -2.2u

So, overall nothing really promising so far. Maybe I'm not justified in predicting this, but I'm expecting much much better results this year. I'm going to be a bit more selective with my betting, since I think I was just placing way too many bets. I'm putting in a lot more research now than I used to, as well. For 2011 I will keep track of my YTD results here, starting now with UFC 125. If I don't end the year in the green, I will quit betting MMA.

[lasker]

Adding more on this, line is too high imo:

T.Gomi wins by submission +2415: 0.25u to win 6.04u

[99Boxster]

Good luck to you man. I will factor in your picks with mine, ddream, ecco, unnasail, and one of my friends to make my picks. When we all agree I will go HUGE lol

[lasker]

lol, Gomi by submission is back down all the way to +1353. Gotta love the rollercoaster prop odds!

Good luck to you man. I will factor in your picks with mine, ddream, ecco, unnasail, and one of my friends to make my picks. When we all agree I will go HUGE lol

Good luck tonight Boxster!