Lasker's MMA Picks

**Vaughany** · 07-27-10, 03:43 PM

Good stuff...like most of those picks apart from Big Nog, but admittedly I am a massive Mir fan and will be betting big on him to win by TKO/KO! Cant see Cole Miller beating Pearson either, although I wont argue that its probly better value betting on Miller at +222 than it is on Pearson at -300 or worse. I would also bet on Munoz and Griffin by decision except Paddypower only does prop bets for pay-per-view UFC events

...Just gonna have to go big on Hughes/Almeida to decision, Fitch by decision and Anjos to win / Guida by decision straddle instead!

Do you not feel there is value in Stann as underdog against Massenzio?

**lasker** · 07-27-10, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Good stuff...like most of those picks apart from Big Nog, but admittedly I am a massive Mir fan and will be betting big on him to win by TKO/KO! Cant see Cole Miller beating Pearson either, although I wont argue that its probly better value betting on Miller at +222 than it is on Pearson at -300 or worse. I would also bet on Munoz and Griffin by decision except Paddypower only does prop bets for pay-per-view UFC events

...Just gonna have to go big on Hughes/Almeida to decision, Fitch by decision and Anjos to win / Guida by decision straddle instead!

Do you not feel there is value in Stann as underdog against Massenzio?

I think the Anjos to win / Guida by decision straddle is

I'm usually not big on straddles, but I may tail you on that one.

I've never been too impressed with Stann, to be honest. Also it concerns me whenever a fighter is debuting at a lower weight class -- it's impossible to know how much the weight cut will affect them. Stann was dominated and controlled by a superior wrestler in his fight against Davis, and I could see that happening here. Massenzio is not quite the wrestler "Mr. Wonderful" is, but he's a damn good wrestler all the same. But because of the ring rust factor this is a no play for me, and if I was betting this fight I'd probably agree with putting a small play on Stann.

I admit that I'm a huge Nog fan and get really annoyed by Mir (as a person, not a fighter). But I like to think I'm not letting my emotions get in the way here! It's one of my bigger plays too, since I think the odds are pretty far off. At least one of us will be smiling at the end of that one!

**Vaughany** · 07-27-10, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by lasker

I think the Anjos to win / Guida by decision straddle is

I'm usually not big on straddles, but I may tail you on that one.

I've never been too impressed with Stann, to be honest. Also it concerns me whenever a fighter is debuting at a lower weight class -- it's impossible to know how much the weight cut will affect them. Stann was dominated and controlled by a superior wrestler in his fight against Davis, and I could see that happening here. Massenzio is not quite the wrestler "Mr. Wonderful" is, but he's a damn good wrestler all the same. But because of the ring rust factor this is a no play for me, and if I was betting this fight I'd probably agree with putting a small play on Stann.

I admit that I'm a huge Nog fan and get really annoyed by Mir (as a person, not a fighter). But I like to think I'm not letting my emotions get in the way here! It's one of my bigger plays too, since I think the odds are pretty far off. At least one of us will be smiling at the end of that one!

ha yee ive just seen your response about Stann being a no-play in my thread! Im hoping training with Evans and Jones over the past couple of months, combined with a sound Jackson strategy, will help Stann negate Massenzio's wrestling advantage. The weight cut issue is a factor like you say, Stann has been saying that this is the best he's ever felt going in to a fight, but Massenzio has said the same and fighters usually say that unless your Dan Lauzon! Its not a big play anyway - 1 unit.

Ive been playing about with different possible stakes and potential odds for the Anjos/Guida by dec straddle over the last couple of weeks through my geekey spreadsheets that I've created! The prop bets arent out on my book yet but Anjos is at evens to win. So based on the assumption that Guida will be at +300 to win by decision (which I think it will be around that on paddypower based on past fights), if I wer to put 2.5 units on Anjos to win and another 2.5 units on Guida to win by decision, the best possible result would be if Guida by dec came through and would result in 5 units being won, and if Dos Anjos won I would end up even. On the flipside if your more confident that Anjos will win then 5 units on him and 2 units on Guida by dec would end up with 3 units profit if Dos Anjos won and 1 unit if Guida won by decision. So still to make up my mind on which would be best, but obviously could completely change if im well off on the odds for Guida by decision prop.

**lasker** · 07-27-10, 07:10 PM

Yeah, I think the way to go is so that you'll end up ahead if Guida wins by decision and even if dos Anjos wins.

--
Adding another play. Even though I'm on Fitch to win against Alves, I feel this prop is too good to pass up:

Alves wins inside the distance +414 (5dimes): .5u to win 2.1u

So the ideal result is for this prop to come through for 1.5u net profit. If Fitch wins I'll break even. Only way I can lose is if Alves wins by decision, which I think is the least likely result.

**JuicedUp** · 07-27-10, 11:29 PM

GL with your picks.

**GunShard** · 07-28-10, 12:34 AM

That Fitch Alves fight seems to be the hardest to predict.

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 12:13 PM

Adding Hammill -160 (Pinnacle): 5u to win 8u

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:02 PM

Munoz by decision is inexplicably up to +575 at 5dimes. Adding some more units:

Munoz by decision +575 (5dimes): 0.87u to win 5u

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:09 PM

Adding:

Not Jones to win by TKO/KO +130 (5dimes): 2.6u to win 2u

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:17 PM

Adding:

Matyushenko by submission +1600 (5dimes): 0.25u to win 4u

Initially thought it was worth a small play, but I've changed my mind.

**Vaughany** · 07-28-10, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Adding:

Not Jones to win by TKO/KO +130 (5dimes): 2.6u to win 2u

Nice, I got Jones by decision at +350...Matyushenko might be able to tough it out and just lose a 30-27 across the board!

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:24 PM

Adding:

Ellenberger by TKO/KO +310 (5dimes): 1.29u to win 4u

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Nice, I got Jones by decision at +350...Matyushenko might be able to tough it out and just lose a 30-27 across the board!

Agreed. I think you have a good chance of hitting that one.

**Vaughany** · 07-28-10, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Adding:

Ellenberger by TKO/KO +310 (5dimes): 1.29u to win 4u

Good value in that play...its only +175 on Paddypower so will resist.

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:40 PM

Adding:

Frankie Edgar +260: .77u to win 2u .... From your avatar, Vaughany, I'm guessing you're going to approve

Edgar/Penn goes 5 round distance +110: .91u to win 1u

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:45 PM

Adding:

Palhares/Marquardt goes 3 round distance +125: 1.2u to win 1.5u

**Vaughany** · 07-28-10, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Adding:

Frankie Edgar +260: .77u to win 2u .... From your avatar, Vaughany, I'm guessing you're going to approve

Edgar/Penn goes 5 round distance +110: .91u to win 1u

ha yeah for sure...Edgar is everything that a true champion should be and Martin Rooney is a legend as well! I do think though that the only way he can win the fight is by decision again so I'll just be laying a couple units on the prop at +450 or better. Will probably make it a straddle and add Penn by submission as well.

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 03:59 PM

I wouldn't bother with the straddle! Could happen, of course, but Edgar is extremely difficult to submit. Edgar by decision should be a great bet. I'll almost certainly be playing that as well, but I felt there was enough value for a small play already.

**Vaughany** · 07-28-10, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by lasker

I wouldn't bother with the straddle! Could happen, of course, but Edgar is extremely difficult to submit. Edgar by decision should be a great bet. I'll almost certainly be playing that as well, but I felt there was enough value for a small play already.

Yep, perhaps I should have more faith in The Answer! Seems to me like it's a similar odds situation to the Machida vs Rua rematch where Rua was still underdog and at +160 to +185 at one point even though he showed that he was more than a match for Machida in the first fight.

**JuicedUp** · 07-28-10, 04:19 PM

There is no way edgar takes this. But that's what I thought in their last fight!

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 04:35 PM

Risking 0.5u to win 70u

Pending 5 Team Parlay

Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1333 J.Ellenberger wins by TKO/KO +310* vs Any other result
Pending 8/1/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1411 Griffin wins by 3 round decision +116* vs Not Griffin by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/10 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jacob Volkman -125* vs Paul Kelly
Pending 8/1/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Damarques Johnson +175* vs Matthew Riddle
Pending 8/18/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 1101 Joseph Benavidez +220* vs Dominick Cruz

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 04:39 PM

Call me a heretic, but I feel that Penn is almost always overvalued in the betting lines. He's a phenomenal fighter, no doubt, but I think there's usually value betting on his opponents. How he is still such a substantial favorite over a man who recently beat him in a five round war... it seems strange to me.

**illmatick** · 07-28-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Call me a heretic, but I feel that Penn is almost always overvalued in the betting lines. He's a phenomenal fighter, no doubt, but I think there's usually value betting on his opponents. How he is still such a substantial favorite over a man who recently beat him in a five round war... it seems strange to me.

could be because most people thought he won the fight 3 rounds to 2, including myself, I might take a shot at Edgar by decision prop but most likely end up avoiding this fight

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

could be because most people thought he won the fight 3 rounds to 2, including myself, I might take a shot at Edgar by decision prop but most likely end up avoiding this fight

Most people? Really? I personally did not, I thought Edgar won 3 rounds to 2.

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 05:29 PM

Risking 0.5u to win 150u

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1011 Jones wins by 3 round decision +404* vs Not Jones by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1107 Munoz wins by 3 round decision +575* vs Not Munoz by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1333 J.Ellenberger wins by TKO/KO +310* vs Any other result
Pending 8/1/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1411 Griffin wins by 3 round decision +116* vs Not Griffin by 3 round decision

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 05:42 PM

Risking 0.5u to win 5.6u

Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -620* vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Mark Munoz +178* vs Yushin Okami
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Jake Ellenberger -170* vs John Howard
Pending 8/1/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Tyson Griffin -310* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 8/1/10 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jacob Volkman -125* vs Paul Kelly

**lasker** · 07-28-10, 05:51 PM

Risking 0.25u to win 152u

Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1107 Munoz wins by 3 round decision +575* vs Not Munoz by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1323 J.Ellenberger wins in round 2 +745* vs Any other result
Pending 8/1/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1411 Griffin wins by 3 round decision +116* vs Not Griffin by 3 round decision
Pending 8/1/10 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jacob Volkman -125* vs Paul Kelly
Pending 8/1/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Damarques Johnson +175* vs Matthew Riddle

**squallsquall** · 07-29-10, 01:12 AM

Love your write-ups, but I think you're off on Big Nog. Don't get me wrong, I'm as big a fan as the next guy, but he just seems physically finished.

Look at his complete lack of movement and slow-motion reactions in his first match vs Mir. They attributed it to a staph infection, fair enough. But when he look _exactly_ as slow vs Velasquez, that's gotta say something.

He hasn't looked prime at any time in the UFC, and now he looks plain bad. I'm afraid he's eaten too many punches through the years.

**lasker** · 07-29-10, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by squallsquall

Love your write-ups, but I think you're off on Big Nog. Don't get me wrong, I'm as big a fan as the next guy, but he just seems physically finished.

Look at his complete lack of movement and slow-motion reactions in his first match vs Mir. They attributed it to a staph infection, fair enough. But when he look _exactly_ as slow vs Velasquez, that's gotta say something.

He hasn't looked prime at any time in the UFC, and now he looks plain bad. I'm afraid he's eaten too many punches through the years.

You make a good point, and it's something I have to consider. I'm probably a great guy to fade when it comes to Big Nog fights: I picked him to beat Mir, he lost; I picked him to lose against Couture, he won; I picked him to beat Velasquez, he lost. The last time I picked correctly in a Big Nog fight was when he beat Tim Sylvia.

I think very little can be gleaned from his first loss to Mir because of the staph infection you mentioned. He had been in the hospital just a couple of days before that fight. I do agree that he looked slow against Velasquez, but Velasquez looked so quick and sharp in that fight that I think it had more to do with Velasquez being a beast than Nogueira being done. Nog has a better ground game than Mir and his boxing was on point in the Couture fight, but of course Couture is a lot slower than Velasquez. I guess I'm just not willing to give up on Nog yet. I think he's highly motivated for this fight, and I think he'll have a new gameplan: take it to the ground. Mir never had the best takedown defense, and I think Nog will eventually be able to take him down and win the ground battle. Maybe it's wistful thinking, but I think he has a better chance than the odds suggest. I also still think Mir is a bit overrated, even after his KO loss to Carwin. His smooth talking may convince a lot of people, but he's really not as good as he thinks he is.

You're right that Nog has taken too many punches, and perhaps you're right that his career is fading before our eyes. This fight should answer some of those questions. In the end, I can't say that Nog should be the favorite, but it's hard for me to pass him up at +193 against a man he was heavily favored to beat not too long ago.

**squallsquall** · 07-31-10, 11:43 AM

I disagree about his slowness in the fight vs Velasquez being an illusion created by the fast Velasquez. Nog's defensive movement was next to nothing; his head was more or less a sitting duck. I saw the same tendencies in the Couture match, with Nog only being saved by his nothing short of amazing jaw. He ate a LOT of jabs but just seemed to shrug them off. His offensive striking was ok, though.

I agree that Mir's ground game is far inferior to Nog's, but I still doubt the fight will take place on the ground very much. Nog's not much of a takedown specialist, and though inferior to Nog, Mir is no slouch when it comes to BJJ either. I think the should be able to avoid a submission at least.

Either way, this really fees like a do-or-die fight for Nog. If he loses, I doubt he'll ever be back in title contention.

**jin2daj** · 07-31-10, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by lasker

I'll be using this forum to keep track of my picks and results. I've had good results betting on MMA for quite a while now, so hopefully it will continue! I sometimes write a blog explaining my reasons for the pick, so this thread might be mainly for record-keeping but discussion is always welcome.

You'll see that I make a lot of bets on MMA -- probably way too many -- but meanwhile I've been doing well so "if it ain't broke don't fix it." Anyway, here are my picks for upcoming fights. Some are in the distant future, but it's important to try to get the best price since lines can move quickly in MMA. If the prices get better, I may add units later to some of these. A lot of times I'll be using the Pinnacle odds, so hopefully you have or can get a Pinnacle account. But regardless, i'll try to also list the book where the fighter is available at the posted odds. You should check bestfightodds.com to try to get the best odds you can, but of course check the book ratings here and never play in untrustworthy books!

So, here are a bunch of picks to get this thread rolling

:

Munoz +180 (Pinnacle): 3u to win 5.4u

Munoz by decision +491 (5dimes): 1.02u to win 5u

Tyson Griffin by decision +108 (5dimes): 2u to win 2.16u

Fitch -102 (Pinnacle): 0.51u to win .5u

Volkmann -116 (Pinnacle): 1.16u to win 1u

Damarques Johnson +185 (Bookmaker): 2u to win 3.7u

Hughes by decision +254 (5dimes): 1u to win 2.54u

dos Santos -295 (Bodog): 1.5u to win .51u

Story -105 (Pinnacle): 1.58u to win 1.5u

Wallace +500 (Pinnacle): 0.25u to win 1.25u

Benavidez +227 (Pinnacle): 2.2u to win 5u

Florian -140 (Bookmaker): 2.1u to win 1.5u

Maia -165 (Bodog): 1.65u to win 1u

Tibau +160 (Bodog): 1.56u to win 2.5u

Cole Miller +222 (Pinnacle): 1.58u to win 3.5u

Big Nog +193 (Pinnacle): 2.59u to win 5u

Lil Nog +135 (Bodog): 1.35u to win 1u

really like your picks, im following this website that does mma picks and you guys (you and the site) think really similarly.

havent decided which lines i plan to follow though

BOL

**lasker** · 07-31-10, 06:44 PM

thanks, I don't know which website it is but if they've been successful for you in the past then hopefully that's a good sign for my picks

My two cents: If you're going to follow just one of those picks for tomorrow, my advice would be Damarques Johnson. He's the probably best dog on the entire card... I think that will be a competitive fight and if it ends inside the distance, Johnson will be the winner. The bet @+odds with the best chance of hitting is Tyson Griffin by decision.

**lasker** · 08-02-10, 01:37 AM

Terrible night for me, at least in this thread. I actually lucked out because I had made a final play on "J.Ellenberger wins in round 3 +975," .92u to win 9u, which put me (barely) in the green. But obviously I won't record it here because I forgot to add it to the thread in time. So here are the results so far:

Munoz +180 (Pinnacle): 3u to win 5.4u

fight did go to decision, as expected, and it was even a split decision (though I have to admit I cannot understand why any judge would award the fight to Munoz), but Okami was too strong. His takedown defense really surprised me, and for whatever reason Munoz' wrestling credentials have not carried over well into MMA wrestling

Munoz by decision +491 (5dimes): 1.02u to win 5u

Tyson Griffin by decision +108 (5dimes): 2u to win 2.16u

Griffin was caught, what can you do? He was too content to stand in the pocket and trade. This was the only way he could lose this fight, and I really expected him to use more movement, leg-kicks and wrestling

Volkmann -116 (Pinnacle): 1.16u to win 1u

the one blog I forgot to post in the MMA forum was the one blog that played out exactly as scripted: http://lasker.mysbrforum.com/blog/24...kelly-105.html

Damarques Johnson +185 (Bookmaker): 2u to win 3.7u

I started worrying when he didn't make weight. But Riddle was the favorite for a reason, and proved it.

Ellenberger by TKO/KO +310 (5dimes): 1.29u to win 4u

Not Jones to win by TKO/KO +130 (5dimes): 2.6u to win 2u

Rather foolish of me, in retrospect, but hindsight is 20/20

4 parlay losses: -1.75u

Result: -7.35u

Bad picks, no excuses. I hope things will improve after next weekend.

**36mafia** · 08-02-10, 01:52 AM

get em next time

was with you on munoz and he did nothing but disappoint
that caliber of a wrestler should be able to take anyone down at will