Nobody's buying in to Melvin at Jackson's camp? At least he probably won't get subbed with all that grease they apply over there.
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Mirko Cro-Cop Filipovic +215 (bookmaker)
Dammit, I said it was going to be a no-play but +215 is value. Hard to know the severity of his eye injury, but I'm hoping it's not too bad by fight time. I really think this is a difficult matchup for Mir. He doesn't have great wrestling, and even if he has been working on it (as he says) it will still be hard forh im to take Cro-Cop down. Mir's improved striking is not on par with Cro-Cop's, even at this stage in his career. Obviously his jiu-jitsu is better, but the question is whether he'll manage to get it to the ground and keep it there.
Mir doesn't like to get hit in the face. Cro-Cop is going to hit him in the face. How's that for analysis?
I don't know what Mir has done to convince so many backers that he's some kind of phenom. He's good at talking and sounding smart, which usually pumps value into his opponent's line. I have to go with the fading but still dangerous Croatian.Comment -
Unless Cro-Cop's age has significantly caught up to him in the past couple of months, it looks like Mir will have to win a decision to take this fight. Cro-Cop's only been submitted once, by Noguiera, and TKO'd by Kevin Randleman forever ago, and the famous Gonzaga head kick. I think this fight WILL go to the mat at some point, but Mir is more of a sub guy from bottom game, and I doubt he'll be pulling guard. I don't see him subbing Cro-Cop with the power kimura from top position, and doubt if he will TKO him from there. Starting to find more value in Cro-Cop at +215, though I'd like to see his odds by TKO. Maybe straddle that with a Mir win.Comment -
Good points. Cro-Cop fought the two best strikers in the UFC's heavyweight division, and even though dos Santos mostly dominated the striking, Mir is no dos Santos. I think these two are on different levels on the feet, even taking into consideration that Cro-Cop is a shell of his younger self.
I was pretty confident that Big Nog would win handily against Mir, and we all know how that turned out
. In this case I'm not confident that Cro-Cop will win, especially since it's clear he won't be in the best condition for this fight, but I think he must have a better chance than the odds represent.
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Wow, Efrain Escudero was cut by the UFC. I'm sure missing weight didn't do him any favors, but I'm very surprised they'd cut a TUF winner with a 3-2 record in the company. He hasn't even lost two in a row. And the two guys he lost to (in exciting fights) are two of the brightest young prospects in the lightweight division. Tough break.
That said, I'm not too sorry to see him cut. His arrogance far exceeds his skill set.Comment -
I agree this fight could well end up going to decision. However, the majority of fighters that Cro-Cop has faced have been stand-up fighters so it's is perhaps not surprising that he's only been submitted once. The likes of Perosh, Al-Turk, Kongo, Barry, and even Dos Santos probably never had the intention of trying to submit Cro-Cop - regardless of whether they had the ability to do it or not. Even in pride, other than Noguiera I dont't think there were any high level, aggressive BJJ guys that Cro-Cop had to deal with?Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
Originally posted by Vaughany
well said....excellent observation...caught mir itd at -115...in 13 wins mir`s been involved in 2 decisions...one in his first fight...one vs dan christison(a 6`8" 270 pound mammoth who is somewhat versed in submissions himself)...
i`m not a big mir fan...but the guy goes into fights to finish...he`s a finisher...Comment -
I think because the loss was in Texas and he was their new "product" to attract the Hispanic market, he served them little to no purpose after that loss. It was also clear that he's not going to compete for the belt, I highly doubt he would have escaped lower level gatekeeper status. Just my .02.Originally posted by laskerComment -
He was cocky and one-dimensional...never going to go down too well with Dana, plus Dana preferred Nover over Escudero during TUF.Comment -
does anybody understand these odds:
1227 M.Serra wins by submission +1210
1231 C.Lytle wins by submission +480
Not that either fighter is likely to submit the other, but it seems strange to think that Lytle is more than twice as likely to submit Serra than vice-versa.Comment -
Adding:
Serra wins by submission +1210: 1u to win 12.1uComment -
edit...I read that wrong
I guess it has a lot to do with Serra's short limbs, ie. Lytle would have a lot easier time locking up a submission like a triangle......still don't think they should be that far apart though.
also Lytle has 20 submission victories while Serra only has 4Comment -
Lytle has 16 (I counted 19 total, but three were submissions to strikes), and Serra has 5. Lytle also has three times as many fights. Lytle has 51 fights, while Serra has 17.Originally posted by illmatick
The only possible way I think Lytle could submit him is if he rocks him badly first (as in Hughes-Almeida), but if anybody wins by submission I think it's much more likely that Serra does. There is no doubt in my mind that Serra's jiu-jitsu is superior. Lytle has never been submitted, which is impressive, but he also never fought anyone with Serra's grappling credentials... besides his first fight with Serra, that is!Comment -
I agree I wouldnt expect it to be +1250, is that 5 dimes? Its +650 on Paddypower and Lytle is +250 I think. However, I dont see how Serra can sub Lytle...as Ill said he has his short limbs, and has very defensive BJJ...for example in the Hughes fight he looked to control Hughes and just hold him in the hope of making the ref stand them up, it wasnt till late in the third round I believe where Serra attempted a sweep which worked.Comment -
true, but it appears Serra has never submitted anyone with a notable ground game(in mma)...his last submission was 8 years ago...his little t-rex arms really limit what he can do
Lytle on the other hand has submitted Matt brown twice and is coming off back to back submission victories...Brown isn't on Serra's level but I don't think Serra would have submitted him.
I'm just telling you why there's such a huge gap in the line, not saying I 100% agree with it
+1250 could be worth a small play, maybe put into a few long shot parlaysComment -
Good points Vaughany. Since you think it's not unlikely we see one, are you saying Mir can win the decision here? Or are you saying he's more likely to sub Cro-Cop than we think? If I've got this right, you like Mir either way?Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
LOL....I just checked
4 out of the 5 guys serra submitted have a career record of 0-1...that means their first and only mma fight was to Matt serra...those were all gimme submissions, you might as well discredit all of them.
Safe to say that Serra has basically never submitted an MMA fighter.Comment -
From the bottom I agree, he can't submit Lytle, but from top position he can threaten with submissions. If I remember correctly, he went for submissions against Hughes in the third round after his takedown (but not much time was remaining).Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Bare in mind that Mir is my favourite fighter along with Frankie Edgar so I'm slightly bias! Nonetheless, I'm very confident that Mir will win and definitely expect it to be by submission, however I can't rule out the possibility that Mir decides to stand and trade with Cro-Cop for majority of the fight which obviously lessens the chance of a sub! In the scenario that Mir doesnt pull of a sub, many will disagree, but I don't think Cro-Cop will have much of an advantage standing with Mir (I think you'll see a big improvement in Mir's footwork and head movement and overall boxing ability if he does decide to stand and trade), and wont do enough damage to TKO/KO or decision Mir, meaning if Mir can land some strikes and at the very least control Cro-Cop on the ground, he could end up getting the decision. For this reason and because it's not very good value at +110, I've only put a unit on the prop (Mir by sub). You mention that Mir is more of a sub guy from his back which is generally true based on previous fights although he did tap Hardonk, and Traven I think from top/side position. You also say that he probably wont pull guard, on the flipside to what I said above, if Cro-Cop does start to get the better of Mir standing and Mir cant wrestle Cro-Cop to the ground, he will have no choice but to pull guard - which would be very dangerous for Cro-Cop even if he has dazed Mir.Originally posted by Shagdogy
On paddypower Mir by decision is +400 which didn't tempt me at all, I'd of considered putting a unit on it if it was +600 or better. I only do fighters to win by decision props if I don't think there is any other way that they can win and if it seems great value, for instance in the Lytle vs Matt Brown fight I got Brown by decision at +750 and straddled it with Lytle by sub...in that particular fight there was no way Brown was going to sub or TKO/KO Lytle and I expected Brown to be +600 by dec so jumped on the decision prop when it came out at +750. IMO with this Mir fight I just think there are too many possible outcomes so it doesn't make it worthwhile puttin a big or even medium play on any of the prop bets available (unless Mir by decision on 5dimes is a lot better than +400).Comment -
I agree with you, I guess that must be the reasoning. I think the line is way off. I also think +480 is a ridiculous price for Lytle to win by submission. I would even say there's value in betting any other result @-840.Originally posted by illmatickComment -
Both guys have said in interviews that they are going to put on a stand-up brawl for the fans as well so the fact that it might not even hit the ground also adds to the equation. Neither have a wrestling advantage either.Originally posted by laskerComment -
Serra is a 2001 ADCC silver medalist and he got third place in the 1999 World Championships (both from a long time ago, but his limbs weren't any longer back then). His t-rex arms and and stubby legs are still dangerous on the ground. Here's him submitting a long-limbed BJJ blackbelt, Leonardo Silva dos Santos:
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There's no doubt that he can submit high level guys and is a legitimate Black belt, but some guy's BJJ just doesnt seem to transfer over well into MMA where they have to worry about elbows and punches, plus perhaps Serra's BJJ was more explosive back in those days as he was much lighter (less stumpy!). Needless to say, I would be absolutely delighted if Serra pulls off a sub just because I'm a massive fan and I would probably also of put a small play on Serra by sub if paddypower were offering those odds!Comment -
LOL, this actually carries a lot of weight in this particular match-up imoOriginally posted by laskerMirko Cro-Cop Filipovic +215 (bookmaker)
Mir doesn't like to get hit in the face. Cro-Cop is going to hit him in the face. How's that for analysis?
I like to think of Mir as a known wilter(not a real word)
aside from that though, this should be an easy victory for himComment -
J.Stephens wins by submission +1067: 0.47u to win 5u
Call me crazy, but I'm betting it. Including it in a couple long shot parlays too.Comment -
Worth a small play for sure at +1000 or better...only +750 on paddypower.Originally posted by laskerComment -
No longer like Cro-Cop at these odds. Ugh, I've gone back and forth on this one long enough. Hedging.
In retrospect, I now feel my Cro-Cop bet was foolish. The health issues (eye injury, many surgeries, age, many fights, etc), the limited preparation time for an opponent of Mir's caliber, the unusual lack of confidence going into this fight... these factors are too much for me to ignore. I'm hedging the Cro-Cop bet and will take a small loss either way. I may actually add more on Mir later.
Cro-Cop has admitted to taking the fight only because he was made an offer he couldn't refuse. He attaches a disclaimer to practically every comment he makes, something like: "I'll try to win but we'll see... this fight could be my last." Really nothing he says about this fight inspires confidence. As much as I want to believe otherwise, after Saturday night I'll probably have to admit that he can't defeat the upper echelon of heavyweights anymore.Comment -
Gotta agree with you here... throw Mir in a few parlays maybe as well? I saw value in Cro-Cop at first as well, but just couldn't justify it over time. Luckily I hadn't put anything on him at that point. Good luck. Hope you made the right decision. Most of us here are pulling for Mir, if not with our hearts, at least for our pockets.Comment -
CC's a decent bet above +200
Mir should get smashed, he isn't a super aggressive fighter, fights stupid, and gets preoccupied with his opponents too easy. CC just needs to get a good pace up and not let Mir catch his breaths in between exchanges, keep stalking him, don't ease off after Mir throws and runs. If CC fights a decent gameplan and doesn't make a really bad mistake he should win comfortably. Mir's size advantage is the one thing that makes me think he can capitalize on a big enough mistake though.Comment -
He had a lot of fights in not much time which wore down his body a lot, not only in PRIDE but going back to K1 career before that. I think he's been dealing with a lot of consequences from that 5 years or so and looks to be in much better physical condition. Against Barry he showed some real killer instinct for the first time in a while, too. Physical ability isn't the question for me with CC but his motivation and focus to improve his training style. I expect him to do well against Mir and make a claim to the top 5 of the division, but I also see the HWs in the UFC as much weaker than most ppl do. IMO SF's HW roster is much better, there are like 4 or 5 guys in there that could beat CC and Mir in thereOriginally posted by laskerComment -
Serra wins by submission has moved down all the way to +691, and Lytle's line is +550.Originally posted by lasker does anybody understand these odds:
1227 M.Serra wins by submission +1210
1231 C.Lytle wins by submission +480
Not that either fighter is likely to submit the other, but it seems strange to think that Lytle is more than twice as likely to submit Serra than vice-versa.Comment -
HA! At +1000 that for sure has value, I have all the respect in the world for Greg Jackson as a coach but a year and some change isn't long enough to change Melvin's ways.Originally posted by Vaughany
Regardless this fight should be pretty exciting.
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That line moved in my favor too, it's now:
J.Stephens wins by submission +640
Glad I got it at +1067
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Although to be honest, there's probably more value in not M.Guillard wins by submission @ -1100
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fight of the night right there. the other main contender is Lytle/Serra, of course, but I think this one takes it.Originally posted by Fiasco01HA! At +1000 that for sure has value, I have all the respect in the world for Greg Jackson as a coach but a year and some change isn't long enough to change Melvin's ways. Regardless this fight should be pretty exciting.Comment
