Lasker's MMA Picks

[lasker]

get em next time

was with you on munoz and he did nothing but disappoint
that caliber of a wrestler should be able to take anyone down at will

Yeah I thought he'd have a distinct advantage there, but I have to give a ton of credit to Okami. I didn't think enough about how Okami responded to his humiliating loss vs Sonnen... it showed great mental strength to move to the States to train with Sonnen and make sure it didn't happen again. Munoz was too tentative, but Okami did his homework and it showed.

[Chairib]

Yeah I thought he'd have a distinct advantage there, but I have to give a ton of credit to Okami. I didn't think enough about how Okami responded to his humiliating loss vs Sonnen... it showed great mental strength to move to the States to train with Sonnen and make sure it didn't happen again. Munoz was too tentative, but Okami did his homework and it showed.

Okami's a far better grappler than most people on here give him credit for.

[squallsquall]

Tough beat, but you'll bounce back!

[lasker]

Tonight was an excellent night for me. I hit four parlays (including one five-teamer) and came out ahead over 19 units. I would have hit a much bigger one had Sonnen won by decision.... came oh so close, but what can you do? Sorry that I haven't been updating the thread.

From the plays listed here, the win was far more modest:


Fitch -102 (Pinnacle): 0.51u to win .5u

Hughes by decision +254 (5dimes): 1u to win 2.54u

dos Santos -295 (Bodog): 1.5u to win .51u

Story -105 (Pinnacle): 1.58u to win 1.5u

Wallace +500 (Pinnacle): 0.25u to win 1.25u

Result: +1.49u


Tonight I also hit the first six of this 14-team parlay -- dumb bet, i know, but I only bet $1 on it (I usually do one or two of these crazy parlays per event, for kicks).


Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
8/2/10 1:03am $1.00 $2,291.89 Pending 14 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jon Fitch -110* vs Thiago Alves
Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Clay Guida -110* vs Rafael dos Anjos
Win 8/7/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Junior Dos Santos -335* vs Roy Nelson
Win 8/7/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Rick Story -110* vs Dustin Hazelett
Win 8/7/10 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Johny Hendricks -360* vs Charlie Brenneman
Win 8/7/10 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Phil Davis -750* vs Rodney Wallace
Pending 8/28/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Frank Edgar +260* vs BJ Penn
Pending 8/28/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Randy Couture -670* vs James Toney
Pending 8/28/10 10:45pm UFC Fighting 3002 Nate Marquardt -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
Pending 8/28/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Kenny Florian -145* vs Gray Maynard
Pending 9/15/10 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Gleison Tibau +140* vs Jim Miller
Pending 9/15/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ross Pearson -250* vs Cole Miller
Pending 10/23/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hamill -160* vs Tito Ortiz
Pending 8/18/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 1101 Joseph Benavidez +220* vs Dominick Cruz


As for this thread, though, I'm officially at -5.86u after the first two events

[Vaughany]

Are u gonna do a breakdown on Benavidez Cruz fight Lasker? Getting him at +220 is great value, he's only +162 on Paddypower which is making me hesitate.

[lasker]

Yeah, I plan to write a breakdown for Benavidez-Cruz later. I was pleasantly surprised by the +220.

Apparently Silva by submission was as high as +900 or better yesterday morning. Insane. I would have been all over that had I been by my computer... by the time I got home, it was down to around +250 (!)

[Vaughany]

Yeah, I plan to write a breakdown for Benavidez-Cruz later. I was pleasantly surprised by the +220.

Apparently Silva by submission was as high as +900 or better yesterday morning. Insane. I would have been all over that had I been by my computer... by the time I got home, it was down to around +250 (!)

Nice one! Any plans on betting on any of the other WEC fights? I like Roller, Mendes and Jorgensen to win, they'll all be favourites tho. Yee Silva by sub was +600 on paddypower, I clicked on it then decided against it for some strange reason. Decided the next day that Id go for it but wen I went on to paddypower it had gone down to +400 so avoided it

[lasker]

I like Roller too, if you have access to Pinnacle then getting him at -148 looks great. I still like him at -160 (5dimes). The others, I'll wait to see the lines. I don't think I'll be betting Mendes though, he's just too new for me to back him as a favorite against a guy as tough as Swanson, who has very good jiu-jitsu and trains out of the best camp in the world. Might end up as a no play for me, we'll see.

[Vaughany]

I like Roller too, if you have access to Pinnacle then getting him at -148 looks great. I still like him at -160 (5dimes). The others, I'll wait to see the lines. I don't think I'll be betting Mendes though, he's just too new for me to back him as a favorite against a guy as tough as Swanson, who has very good jiu-jitsu and trains out of the best camp in the world. Might end up as a no play for me, we'll see.

Ive only got Paddypower and bet365, they've only got Benavidez fight available at moment, but I'll take Roller if he is -165 or better. My inclination to bet on Mendes stems from fact that Swanson hasnt fought since last november, might be a little rusty which wont be good against an awesome wrestler like Mendes who sets a frenetic pace. Will depend on line tho obviously, but have a feeling he'll be quite a heavy favourite at -225 or worse.

[brooks85]

mendes kept koch on his back for 3 rounds, should have no problem doing it with cub

[squallsquall]

To be quite honest, your credibility is hurt by your claims of making big wins on bets not recorded here. Why don't you list them here? And since you don't list the bets here, why do you list the winnings here?

Not saying you're making them up (I don't think you are), but it just looks bad. Good luck though, I'm sure you'll do well as your write-ups are quite solid!

[lasker]

I've just been lazy and haven't always updated these picks. I'm not recording the winnings that I don't list here. Yes, I mentioned them, but that's it. I could copy and paste the winning parlay tickets from 5dimes, but I really don't feel it's necessary to prove to anyone, especially since I don't include those in the official thread record. But just this time I'll go ahead and post the winning tickets for the parlays and prop bets from last UFC.


55538676 8/8/10 12:51am Wager Won 55495733-1 $4.12 $30.11 Win 5 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1009 Silva wins inside distance -252* vs Not Silva inside distance
Win 8/7/10 11:25pm UFC Fighting 1139 J.Fitch points handicap +3½ -180* vs T.Alves points handicap
Win 8/7/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1340 C.Guida points handicap +3½ -185* vs R.Anjos points handicap
Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Roy Nelson/Junior Dos Santos Over 1½ +101*
Win 8/7/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Johny Hendricks -380* vs Charlie Brenneman

55538287 8/8/10 12:50am Wager Won 55487479-1 $2.22 $20.00 Win 4 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva Over 2½ +136*
Win 8/7/10 11:25pm UFC Fighting 1139 J.Fitch points handicap +3½ -180* vs T.Alves points handicap
Win 8/7/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1340 C.Guida points handicap +3½ -185* vs R.Anjos points handicap
Win 8/7/10 10:25pm UFC Fighting 1440 M.Hughes points handicap +3½ -130* vs R.Almeida points handicap

55534966 8/8/10 12:06am Wager Won 55491515-1 $1.42 $10.06 Win 4 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 11:25pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jon Fitch +105* vs Thiago Alves
Win 8/7/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1340 C.Guida points handicap +3½ -185* vs R.Anjos points handicap
Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Roy Nelson/Junior Dos Santos Over 1½ +101*
Win 8/7/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Johny Hendricks -365* vs Charlie Brenneman


55534856 8/8/10 12:06am Wager Won 55205747-1 $3.78 $10.00 Win 2 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jon Fitch -110* vs Thiago Alves
Win 8/7/10 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Rick Story -110* vs Dustin Hazelett


55526525 8/7/10 10:34pm Wager Won 55205771-1 $15.17 $10.00 Win 2 Team Parlay
Win 8/7/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Junior Dos Santos -335* vs Roy Nelson
Win 8/7/10 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Johny Hendricks -360* vs Charlie Brenneman

55527087 8/7/10 10:36pm Wager Won 55435844-1 $3.5 $20.10 Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1511 Santos wins by 3 round decision +574* vs Not Santos by 3 round decision


55538286 8/8/10 12:50am Wager Won 55486844-1 $7.36 $10.00 Win 8/7/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva Over 2½ +136*

55535496 8/8/10 12:08am Wager Won 55205592-3 $5.00 $10.00 Win 8/7/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1107 Fitch wins by 3 round decision +200* vs Not Fitch by 3 round decision


Again, I'm not posting every single one of my picks in this thread. I already said those bets were not included in my record here, which is still at -5.86u after two events. So I don't think it "looks bad" to mention them. I have no reason to lie to gain credibility on an online forum, and if people choose not to believe me that's fine.

And I also have a few open big parlays that have hit the first few legs. As you can see, I place a lot of bets and I'm usually too lazy or preoccupied to post them all here. I'm not usually posting my parlays anyway, just my straight up picks. Although I haven't updated for a while so I'll do that soon.

[squallsquall]

I understand, and I'm sorry if I was rude or sounded accusing - that wasn't my intention.

[lasker]

No, no problem at all.

Anyway, let me go ahead and add some of my earlier picks:


WEC Fighting 1105 Benavidez wins inside distance +432*: 2.31u to win 10u

WEC Fighting 1101 Joseph Benavidez +220*: 2.27u to win 5u

UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hamill -160* vs Tito Ortiz: 10u to win 6.25u

UFC Fighting 1103 Akiyama/Bisping goes 3 round distance +100*: 3u to win 3u

UFC Fighting1411 Florian wins by 3 round decision +201*: 2.48u to win 5u

UFC Fighting 1402 Kenny Florian -150*: 6u to win 4u

2 Team Parlay: 4.9u to win 5u
Pending 8/28/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1209 Couture wins inside distance -437* vs Not Couture inside distance
Pending 8/28/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Kenny Florian -155* vs Gray Maynard

That's all for now, I'll try to add some more later. Good luck everyone!

[KCJMAC]

Those look like good calls to me, Lasker. Good luck!

[snake11eyes]

Lasker, How does betting 6.25u on Hamill net you 10u. Is this just a mistake or do you like Ortiz in that fight or am I just an idiot and cant figure it out.

[Vaughany]

Lasker, How does betting 6.25u on Hamill net you 10u. Is this just a mistake or do you like Ortiz in that fight or am I just an idiot and cant figure it out.

Guessing Lasker is including the stake bro...so 3.75 from Hamill winning plus the stake of 6.25!

[Educ8d Degener8]

So those fighter + points props hit even if the fight finishes within the distance...? (obviously - with said fighter + points finishing the fight)

Seems like a nice bet. Only way to lose is if your fighter gets finished, or loses a lopsided decision.

I would've thought the prop is only applicable if the fight goes to the cards.

[lasker]

Lasker, How does betting 6.25u on Hamill net you 10u. Is this just a mistake or do you like Ortiz in that fight or am I just an idiot and cant figure it out.

Ugh, sorry! Thanks for catching that. I just edited it. I switched them around by mistake. I'm betting 10u on Hamill to win 6.25u. A bit much, I know, but I really don't see how Ortiz can win. His striking and wrestling are worse than Hamll's, he has serious ring rust, he has less power, and he poses no real danger of a TKO or submission.

Oh, and he hasn't beaten an opponent not named Ken Shamrock since dinosaurs roamed the earth.

[lasker]

So those fighter + points props hit even if the fight finishes within the distance...? (obviously - with said fighter + points finishing the fight)

Seems like a nice bet. Only way to lose is if your fighter gets finished, or loses a lopsided decision.

I would've thought the prop is only applicable if the fight goes to the cards.

Yes, they hit as long as the fighter wins within the distance or wins at least one out of three rounds. The juice can be substantial, but they're often worth a look.

[lasker]

Going against the grain on the Penn-Edgar rematch:

UFC Fighting 1101 Frank Edgar +260* vs BJ Penn: 1u to win 2.6u

UFC Fighting 1107 Edgar wins by 5 round decision +430*: 1u to win 4.3u

[jin2daj]

risky.... with the edgar plays... i like your monoz writeup though

[KCJMAC]

Going against the grain on the Penn-Edgar rematch: UFC Fighting 1101 Frank Edgar +260* vs BJ Penn: 1u to win 2.6u UFC Fighting 1107 Edgar wins by 5 round decision +430*: 1u to win 4.3u

I like your picks a lot, Lasker, but I'm not sure about the Edgar to win +260. I don't see him beating a motivated Penn more than 28% of the time in this fight. The +430 makes more sense to me, since I think Edgar's only significant way to win is by decision, and that could happen 19% of the time.

With that said, I hope you win, because I have Edgar in a couple parlays that will pay 60 units.

[lasker]

I like your picks a lot, Lasker, but I'm not sure about the Edgar to win +260. I don't see him beating a motivated Penn more than 28% of the time in this fight. The +430 makes more sense to me, since I think Edgar's only significant way to win is by decision, and that could happen 19% of the time.

With that said, I hope you win, because I have Edgar in a couple parlays that will pay 60 units.

Thanks KCJMAC, you recently won the SBR contest so it's great to get your vote of confidence.

You may be right, but I think Penn is always a bit overrated by the betting public, so I tend to go against him as a matter of principle (unless he's facing someone like Stevenson, who had absolutely no way to beat him), especially with a fighter who already beat him once. I'm sure Penn is motivated, but his conditioning may still be suspect. I also think that Edgar is almost always underrated by the betting public, and with everyone dismissing the first win as a fluke or a bad decision, I think this is the case yet again.

I tend to agree that Edgar's biggest chance to win, by far, is to win by decision ... however, I've been burned a few times by betting only by decision rather than on a fighter to win straight up, and I just wanted Edgar +260 as some insurance just in case Penn gasses and Edgar surprisingly manages a TKO. Normally I would have gone bigger on the Edgar by 5 round decision, so I just reduced that bet a little bit for some peace of mind.

Edgar and Edgar by decision plays a big role in a number of my parlays also, as well as Benavidez and Benavidez inside the distance. By the way, Edgar by decision is now down to +376. Glad I got it when I did.

[lasker]

risky.... with the edgar plays... i like your monoz writeup though

Yes, they are a bit risky but I'm not risking too much. As for my Munoz-Okami analysis, thanks, at least the write-up was good.... The pick and the analysis, not so much

[Vaughany]

Thanks KCJMAC, you recently won the SBR contest so it's great to get your vote of confidence.

You may be right, but I think Penn is always a bit overrated by the betting public, so I tend to go against him as a matter of principle (unless he's facing someone like Stevenson, who had absolutely no way to beat him), especially with a fighter who already beat him once. I'm sure Penn is motivated, but his conditioning may still be suspect. I also think that Edgar is almost always underrated by the betting public, and with everyone dismissing the first win as a fluke or a bad decision, I think this is the case yet again.

I tend to agree that Edgar's biggest chance to win, by far, is to win by decision ... however, I've been burned a few times by betting only by decision rather than on a fighter to win straight up, and I just wanted Edgar +260 as some insurance just in case Penn gasses and Edgar surprisingly manages a TKO. Normally I would have gone bigger on the Edgar by 5 round decision, so I just reduced that bet a little bit for some peace of mind.

Edgar and Edgar by decision plays a big role in a number of my parlays also, as well as Benavidez and Benavidez inside the distance. By the way, Edgar by decision is now down to +376. Glad I got it when I did.

Im hoping that Paddypower brings out Edgar by decision at +400. Even if Penn's conditioning is the best its ever been it will still never match Edgar's.

[lasker]

Insane 12-team parlay, but just for kicks. Betting $1 to win $1000

Pending 12 Team Parlay
Pending 8/28/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Frank Edgar +260* vs BJ Penn
Pending 8/28/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1209 Couture wins inside distance -437* vs Not Couture inside distance
Pending 8/28/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Kenny Florian -155* vs Gray Maynard
Pending 8/28/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1503 Davis/Diaz goes 3 round distance +115* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
Pending 10/23/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hamill -160* vs Tito Ortiz
Pending 11/20/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Lyoto Machida -250* vs Quinton Jackson
Pending 8/18/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 1105 Benavidez wins inside distance +426* vs Not Benavidez inside distance
Pending 8/18/10 9:30pm WEC Fighting 1202 Shane Roller -160* vs Anthony Pettis
Pending 9/30/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 2104 Fight won't go 5 round distance -260* vs Gamburyan/Aldo goes 5 round distance
Pending 8/21/10 10:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 1004 Ronaldo Souza -260* vs Tim Kennedy
Pending 8/21/10 10:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 1006 KJ Noons -260* vs Jorge Gurgel
Pending 8/21/10 10:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 1008 Bobby Lashley -560* vs Chad Griggs

[lasker]

Shane Roller -155: 4u to win 2.58u

Maciej Jewtuszko +450: 0.25u to win 1.13u

Cub Swanson +285: 1u to win 2.85u

Benavidez wins by submission +775: 0.75u to win 5.81u:


Parlay, 0.6u to win 7.83u:
Benavidez wins by submission* +775 /Shane Roller* -165

[lasker]

Benavidez wins by TKO/KO now @ +1230 ?!?!??

Well, I'm taking the bait. 1 unit on that, plus including it in some parlays.

[Vaughany]

Benavidez wins by TKO/KO now @ +1230 ?!?!??

Well, I'm taking the bait. 1 unit on that, plus including it in some parlays.

WOWZA! I'd be all over that!

[lasker]

Yeah, that line seems insane to me.

I like Javier Vasquez @-175 -- last minute play on him, 2.5u to win 1.43u

[lasker]

Also, I'm going against the grain here, but I'm taking Dave Jansen @+115: 1u to win 1.15u

[lasker]

Parlay Benavidez by TKO/KO +1230 / Shane Roller by submission +265: .53u to win 25.2u

Alright, I have quite a few more silly parlays here and there, but there are too many so that will do it for this thread today. Enjoy the fights tonight!

[snake11eyes]

I was going to stay away from Cruz-Benevidez because Cruz just looks too big. Having said that I'll try Joe by ko for +1230 in a couple parlays. In another thread did you say why you like the fugitive I just dont see how he wins that fight.

[Fiasco01]

Benavidez wins by TKO/KO now @ +1230 ?!?!??

Well, I'm taking the bait. 1 unit on that, plus including it in some parlays.

At 5Dimes that line is currently +1670