Lamas is a decorated wrestler but I think Jansen's MMA wrestling will prove more effective. And Jansen's ground game is considerably better. I may be way off base, but I don't think Lamas is the favorite here.
-
Comment -
I just don't get it. Benavidez has less than a 6% chance of winning by KO/TKO? What is this nonsense?Originally posted by Fiasco01
Thanks for the update. I'm throwing some more units on it. Tonight will either be a very, very good night or a really bad one.Comment -
I'm glad you posted this, Lasker. It wasn't up last time I checked. Just now found it for +1670 on 5 Dimes if you have an account there as well.Originally posted by laskerBenavidez wins by TKO/KO now @ +1230 ?!?!??
Well, I'm taking the bait. 1 unit on that, plus including it in some parlays.
In for .4 units to win 6.68 units. War Benavidez!Comment -
Just put 1.5u on Benevidez wins inside distance +696 ... whatever happens that's a crazy lineComment -
Wow what a line I'm taking the 1670 also.Comment -
Ugh, horrible night for me. I needed either Roller or Benavidez in all of my parlays, including four parlays with Jewtuszko that would have paid off nicely. Pettis' takedown defence was shocking, and Roller didn't look good from the start. As for Benavidez, it was another close fight and basically a five-round replay of the first fight. Cruz is just a little bit better, what can you do. His footwork and takedown defence are truly phenomenal.
I hadn't posted all my picks here in the blog, since I had so many, but all the parlays went south. Biggest win was on Jewtuszko, but I didn't bet much on him straight up. As for this thread, I went -6.37u for the night. I put way too much faith in Benavidez and Roller. Benavidez kept it competitive and came close, and at the price was probably the right play, but I bet too much on him.Comment -
Parlay: Grabowsky/Frausto/Hornbuckle/Knabjian: 1.57u to win 5u
Knabjian -115: 2u to win 1.74uComment -
heh, of course Knajbian is the one guy to lose. Another -3.57u gone. In a slump here... good fading material now
Comment -
your alright...you'll bounce backComment -
I have a question lakser, how many times or what percentage of the time does Toney "catch" Randy? Based off your previous picks it looks like you clearly put a lot of math into your choices and given the odds should be around +600/+700 for Toney by KO/TKO, I'm wondering if you see that being worth a play.Comment -
Perhaps, but I don't think so. Personally, I would only play it at around +900 or better. Being that it's the only thing Randy has to train for, I think he's going to be very smart about when and how he closes the distance. And it only takes one time. Once he closes the distance, if he's not really badly rocked or knocked out, the fight is over. I honestly can't see Toney winning this fight more than around 10%-15% of the time, and that's probably generous. I'm waiting to see the odds on Couture by sub -- that's probably the bet I'm going to take.
Couture inside the distance still has some value @-437, IMO.Comment -
WOW -437 is very good value IMO...Id at least put that in a couple of parlays if it was available on my book!Originally posted by laskerComment -
That's exactly the type of response I was looking for sir, Couture by sub is a far more likely outcome given that Toney will get tired really quickly. Thank you for potentially making me money.Originally posted by laskerComment -
Good luckOriginally posted by Fiasco01
Comment -
Thread record after two events: -17.29u
Parlay for Strikeforce today: Lawal/Souza/Noons: 5u to win 7uComment -
Hope Kennedy doesnt mess tht one up for u brah!Originally posted by laskerThread record after two events: -17.29u
Parlay for Strikeforce today: Lawal/Souza/Noons: 5u to win 7uComment -
Me too!
Kennedy's an impressive fighter, no doubt, but the way I'm thinking is that he doesn't have the takedown defense to keep it standing. As good as his jiu-jitsu is, Jacare has to be on another level (although I admit I was surprised he couldn't finish his last opponent, Villasenor). Jacare has been looking good on the feet too. Hopefully I get a small break tonight, after a bad streak.Comment -
Id of taken Kennedy at +225 or better but could only get him at +180. I was thinking that he'd have the superior cardio and determination and this would aid him in a 5 round fight...but then on the flipside it just means that there is a greater amount of time for Jacare to lock a submission. So ive decided to resist and just stick with my Noons, Lashley and King Mo parlay!Originally posted by laskerComment -
Originally posted by Vaughany
Ouch, sorry bro. I've never been impressed with Lashley at all, so I couldn't lay that juice on him even in a parlay. Hopefully that's the first and last major upset of the nightComment -
Surprised Jacare didn't try for more takedowns, but he got the better of the standup. Kennedy had no business complaining about the decision at the end; came across as a sore loser.
But Feijao upsets Mo at the end, killing the parlay. Down to -22.29uComment -
Parlay:
Jorge Santiago -145
Leonardo Santos -535
Motoki Miyazawa -110
2.5u to win 7.07uComment -
Parlay:
Takuya Eizumi +155
Motoki Miyazawa -110
Wataru Takahashi +105
1.67u to win 15uComment -
Parlay:
Jorge Santiago -130
Leonardo Santos -500
Nick Thompson -350
3u to win 5.19uComment -
The Santiago vs Misaki fight is crazy...Fight of the year! Think Santiago is shading it at the moment with a couple of knockdownsOriginally posted by laskerComment -
Bad luck on Miyazawa and Thompson...looks like they screwed ur parlays. Thompson gettin KO'd:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5rch...ayer_embedded#!Comment -
you have a link?Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Here's part 1, guessing the other parts are being uploaded now:Originally posted by illmatick
Comment -
You'll bounce back!Originally posted by laskerThread record after two events: -17.29u
Parlay for Strikeforce today: Lawal/Souza/Noons: 5u to win 7u
Comment -
Thts poor quality...this one is better http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYHPM7KbUL0Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Yeah, can't seem to catch a break here. Miyazawa totally dominated the first round... I don't know what happened to him after that.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Considering my plays for this weekend now. I'll have them posted tomorrow. Hopefully my results will turn around. I've had a great week of tennis betting, and looking to build on that with a nice chunk of change after saturday night.Comment -
good luck man, ufc 118 is coming up fast.
i know youll bounce backComment -
Why parlays instead of straight bets?Comment -
You're right, perhaps I had too much confidence, and was looking for low risk-high reward. Still, I've had some good success with them in the past and I like to think some are +EV, if chosen properly. Especially when the juice is high (but I'm very confident in the play, as with Couture) I make parlays. Although you're absolutely right that in the long run I would probably be better off to play them straight up. Right now my bankroll is small enough that I'm willing to risk more for the chance to get it to grow more quickly.Originally posted by squallsquall
I'll probably be playing some parlays for tomorrow, but everybody would be wise not to tail the parlays (or to bet the plays you like straight up, if anything!).Comment -
Ok, the moment of truth. Unfortunately Couture by submission does not have plus odds, as I thought it would. -110 strikes me as a very sharp line for that. However, I can't shake the gut feeling that it's going to happen. I know Couture seems intent on submitting him, and it's hard for me to imagine Toney stopping him. But more value in Couture inside the distance, even at -429 I think there's value here.
As usual, I've put in too many long-shot parlays and overly-optimistic plays, so for this thread I'll try to stick with what's wise. With that said, here are my plays for tomorrow:
Couture inside the distance (-429): 8.58u to win 2u
2-team Parlay @+103 Couture inside the distance(-429)/Florian (-155), since reduced juice is not available for parlays: 4.85u to win 5u
Kenny Florian -150: 6u to win 4u
Diaz/Davis goes three round distance +110: 1.82u to win 2u
Edgar wins by 5 round decision +430 (got this in earlier http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...st-saying.html): 1.16u to win 5u
3-team parlay @+256: Edgar/Penn starts round 2 (-741)/Couture wins by submission(-110)/Kenny Florian(-155): 1.17u to win 3u
2-team parlay @+301 Couture by submission(-110)/Davis/Diaz goes 3 round distance (+110): 1u to win 3.01u
--
I need Couture and Florian to pull through, and Couture should do it inside the distance; as long as that happens I expect to have a nice birthday present tomorrow night. Good luck all
Comment
