Lasker's MMA Picks

[lasker]

Weird issue with 5dimes for this event.

At "bestfightodds" and other sites it lists the odds at 5dimes for all the UFC 122 fights, but when I log in to 5dimes the undercard bouts don't seem to be available for betting at all. This is the first time I haven't been able to bet on undercard fights with 5dimes. Are they available to anyone else?

[lasker]

duhhhh... they already fought. forgot the event is in germany.

sorry i didn't post my picks in time for this event. been busy lately, but i'll definitely be posting early picks for the next one.

[lasker]

Ok, I'll get started early with UFC 123 bets. My favorite:

Machida -230: 8u to win 3.48u

Square play, but I'm confident it's a winner. Some have argued that Machida can't finish Rampage, so if you bet on him you should just bet Machida by decision +159, but I don't want to take that risk. I think there's a distinct possibility that Machida finishes Rampage in this fight. Rampage lacks motivation and, from recent interviews, I get the sense that he is already mentally defeated. He just wants another paycheck. Even if Rampage was super-motivated, this is a terrible matchup for him stylistically. Machida has very good leg kicks and will outstrike Rampage all day on the feet. Rampage would have to land that big punch to win by KO/TKO, but I don't see it happening against the most elusive fighter in his division, especially after Machida was knocked out for the first time. Rampage hasn't even been training with his usual partners at Wolfslair, he's training in Orange County, CA presumably to spend more time with his family.

These two are not on the same level at this stage in their careers. Machida is a notch or two above, and he'll either win a clear-cut, lopsided decision or win by TKO. I know that Rampage has a strong chin, but it's going to get tested a lot. I made a lot of money betting against Rampage when he fought Rashad, and I'm feeling very comfortable with this bet as well. Machida's way too fast for Rampage, and he should be around -400 in my opinion.

[lasker]

Hughes wins by 3 round decision +267: 1.5u to win 4.01u

Stylistically the fight seems to favor Penn. He won the first fight decisively and was winning the rematch until suffering a separated rib at the end of the 2nd round. Penn has better striking, is faster, and has vaunted takedown defense. He also has better jiu-jitsu, but that should only play a role if he gets top position.

In Hughes favor are strength, offensive wrestling, cardio, and intangibles. By intangibles I just mean that Hughes is a born winner. He wins. His record is an astonishing 45-7. He has the same number of losses as Penn, but three times as many wins. With his recent success reports from training partners (Brian Foster) are that he is highly motivated and training hard, and anyway I think motivation is never really a problem for Hughes because he is such a competitor. He hates losing more than Penn does. Penn is obviously more talented than Hughes but motivation has been an issue in the past, and cardio has been an issue as well, and after his back-to-back demoralizing losses against Edgar there have been some hints about near-retirement, and I don't get the sense that he is very hungry for a comeback anymore.

It's true that fighters like GSP and Edgar managed to take Penn down because of their explosiveness, which Hughes lacks, but Hughes managed to take him down in the second fight and I think he'll be able to again, though it might not happen until the second round. Penn will be at a significant size disadvantage and if Hughes is able to bully him against the cage in the early stages, like GSP did, I think he'll eventually manage to get the fight on the ground where he'll have the usual advantage of top position. I highly doubt that he can finish Penn, but I expect this to go to a close decision. Rather than bet on the fight going to decision -170 (I already got it at -135 when the odds first came out), I think there's more value in going with Hughes by decision because I think this fight is practically a tossup, and if it goes to decision then I think there's a slightly better chance it's Hughes with his hand raised.

Penn just doesn't seem motivated, and you can't afford to be unmotivated when fighting someone of Hughes' caliber. I really think we're seeing the tail end of Penn's career here. He might take one or two more fights after this, and then I expect him to retire.

[lasker]

Brian Foster -145: 3u to win 2.07u

For a long time now, I've felt that Brian Foster is underrated and also that Matt Brown is overrated. I'm very happy with these odds, even considering the fact that Foster is a late replacement for Rory MacDonald (who would have murdered "The Immortal"). One of my most profitable underdog picks was on Foster over Brock Larson. As I recall I got him at +425 and then he proceeded to totally wreck Larson and made it look easy. He remains the only person to ever TKO the super-tough Larson, and Larson has been in nearly 40 fights. I've bet on Foster in both of his fights since then, and will do so again here.

Prior to that fight was a spirited loss to Rick Story, but even in the loss Larson showed that he is very dangerous on the feet. He also trains with Hughes at HIT Squad and will have a clear wrestling advantage over Brown. Foster lost to Lytle but was looking good on the feet before getting outclassed on the ground, and Lytle's ground game is much more dangerous than Brown's. In his most recent fight, Foster decimated Forrest Petz in about one minute, TKO'ing another guy who had never been TKO'd in nearly thirty fights. Matt Brown has never been TKO/KO'd, but don't be surprised if it happens to him as well. Foster by submission is not out of the question either.

To put it bluntly, I think Foster has the advantage everywhere. He is a more explosive standup fighter, he has much better wrestling, and I think he'll be totally fine on the ground -- probably better, since he will most likely have top position if it goes to the ground and Brown offers nothing from his back. I like Brown, and I'm impressed that he's remained with the UFC as long as he has, but now he'll finally get cut. He lost his last two fights, so he has a lot of pressure on him in this fight, and I expect a very entertaining fight where Foster gets the better of the exchanges and finally puts Brown away.

I'll go out on a limb and say Foster wins by rear naked choke in the third.

[rocky mattioli]

trying to figure out how tim boetsch beats phil davis...looks so obvious that it scares me.....

the length...the athleticism....the wrestling credentials(given that boetsch`s 3 losses were to wrestlers matyushenko/brilz and hamill).....

he would be a nice key in several pars(if the odds were a little tighter it would be more worthwhile)...you could argue that this is a showcase fight(as i`ve read).....real bad style match-up for boetsch...and unfortunately,the odds reflect it....

[lasker]

Yeah, highly unlikely that Boetsch beats Davis. He would have to catch him with a big punch, that's about his only chance. I will be including Davis in quite a few parlays, but straight up the odds are just too steep for me. Davis is inexperienced, that's really his only disadvantage in this fight. While I'm at it, here's a parlay I had been considering and decided to lock it in:

Machida -230 / Davis - 525 / Maia -350, three-team parlay @+120: 3u to win 3.6u

[lasker]

Two dog picks for the TUF 12 Finale:

Pokrajac +200 (over Bonnar): 3u to win 6u

Story +185 (over Hendricks): 3u to win 5.55u

[lasker]

L.Machida wins by submission +1360: 1u to win 13.6u

[lasker]

M.Hughes wins in round 3 +1800: 1u to win 18u

[lasker]

L.Machida wins in round 3 +1375: 1u to win 13.75u

[lasker]

M.Falcao wins in round 1 +750: 1u to win 7.5u

[lasker]

Falcao/Harris won't go 3 round distance -280: 5.6u to win 2u

[lasker]

Penn/Hughes goes 3 round distance -160: 2u to win 1.25u

[omalley21]

Where did you get Machida -230?

I didn't realize Rampage trained in the US for this fight. That should scare you if your betting Machida.

[lasker]

parlay: Fodor -335 / Zaromskis -270 / Barboza -550, 3-team parlay at +110: 3u to win 3.3u

[lasker]

Where did you get Machida -230?

I didn't realize Rampage trained in the US for this fight. That should scare you if your betting Machida.

on the contrary, it makes me more confident.

Machida is -230 at 5dimes, -225 at pinnacle

[lasker]

super-square parlay that I'm dumb enough to bet: Machida -240 / Maia -350 / Davis -525 / Fodor -335 / Zaromskis -270 / Barboza -550, 6-team parlay at +358: 2u to win 7.16u

[lasker]

Justin Wilcox +240: 2u to win 4.8u

[lasker]

And that should do it, at least for now. I'll keep an eye on the odds and see if I want to add more on some or hedge later on.

Feel free to add your own insights, regardless of whether they're in agreement or letting me know what a fool I am. I'm always open to changing my mind and hedging out of questionable bets, as I have done sometimes in the past.

[Vaughany]

Where did you get Machida -230?

I didn't realize Rampage trained in the US for this fight. That should scare you if your betting Machida.

Why is that scary bro?! What mystical powers does training in the US have over England, or anywhere else for that matter? Would GSP be half the fighter that he is if he only trained at Tristar in Canada?! Just because Rampage is training in the US doesnt suddenly mean he is going to be a title contender again, yes he may be training in the US, but he could be sparring with Wes Sims and Jonathan Goulet in his Mum's basement for all you know! Perhaps you should at least watch the Countdown show! If anything as Lasker says, it should make one more confident as he's not out of his comfort zone anymore.

[Vaughany]

Justin Wilcox +240: 2u to win 4.8u

Good play IMO Lask. Of course, Vitor should be the favourite, but I think Wilcox could definetly grind out a decision in this one. I was expecting him to be between +175 and +210 so +240 is good value. Unfortunately non of my books are offering fights at this event currently.

[omalley21]

Well it scares me. I think under different circumstances I would bet the house on Machida. But I have a feeling Rampage wins this fight. Machida is coming off the brutal KO loss, and what should've been a decision loss to shogun before that.

Rampage is obviously coming off a tough decision loss to rashad. Before the fight, he filmed the A team movie, had a long, long layoff, was overweight, etc. He also got caught with a big right hand in the first 5 seconds of the fight that threw him off for the rest of the fight. He then got lay n prayed by rashad. Rampage will be sharp in this fight, he's a proud guy with a lot to prove. All it takes is one shot and Machida will go out. Training at wolfslair wasn't a good career move for Rampage. The best training is in the US.

Machida will definitely not finish Rampage.

[omalley21]

Why is that scary bro?! What mystical powers does training in the US have over England, or anywhere else for that matter? Would GSP be half the fighter that he is if he only trained at Tristar in Canada?! Just because Rampage is training in the US doesnt suddenly mean he is going to be a title contender again, yes he may be training in the US, but he could be sparring with Wes Sims and Jonathan Goulet in his Mum's basement for all you know! Perhaps you should at least watch the Countdown show!

I usually don't watch the countdown shows. Tristar in Canada is an exception. Wolfslair is garbage. Are you really trying to say that British mma camps are on par with the us? Are you from england or something? Look at the track records. They speak for themselves.

[lasker]

Well it scares me. I think under different circumstances I would bet the house on Machida. But I have a feeling Rampage wins this fight. Machida is coming off the brutal KO loss, and what should've been a decision loss to shogun before that. Rampage is obviously coming off a tough decision loss to rashad. Before the fight, he filmed the A team movie, had a long, long layoff, was overweight, etc. He also got caught with a big right hand in the first 5 seconds of the fight that threw him off for the rest of the fight. He then got lay n prayed by rashad. Rampage will be sharp in this fight, he's a proud guy with a lot to prove. All it takes is one shot and Machida will go out. Training at wolfslair wasn't a good career move for Rampage. The best training is in the US. Machida will definitely not finish Rampage.

You put way too much faith in Rampage, imo. He is not training hard for this fight, I don't care what Joe Rogan or others are saying to promote the fight. Just watch any recent interviews with him, or the countdown show. They have to turn to Tiki Ghosn to say good things about him, now that he chose to spend more time with his family rather than train with his usual partners in England. That's why he's training in the states -- he wants to stay home playing video games with his kids. Rampage just doesn't care anymore.

The fact that Machida was knocked out in his last fight actually makes me more confident. Rampage is not the striker Rua is, and now Machida is training to be even more elusive and precise with his movement.

If Machida does not finish Rampage, he'll dominate every round en route to a clear unanimous decision. I really feel this is a mismatch, at this stage in their careers. But we will see.

[omalley21]

Your probably right. I'm playing a little devils advocate, but I do have a feeling Machida won't be the same. His father Yoshizo said the loss messed him up pretty good. Yoshizo went on to say he believes Lyoto should retire. He seemed concerned.

[lasker]

I usually don't watch the countdown shows. Tristar in Canada is an exception. Wolfslair is garbage. Are you really trying to say that British mma camps are on par with the us? Are you from england or something? Look at the track records. They speak for themselves.

I'm American and I really don't know what you're talking about. Yes, we have the best training camps in the world here like Greg Jackson's and AKA and ATT, but that doesn't mean that training anywhere in the States is better than training anywhere in England. Wolfslair has some excellent fighters.

I am confident that Rampage's training partners now, in Orange County, are not anywhere near the caliber of his partners in England. Who is he even training with? Tiki Ghosn? Not to mention the fact that in my opinion, Bisping is one of the best training partners for a fighter to prepare against Machida. Obviously Machida is much better, but Bisping is also hard to hit, fast and precise with his strikes. This was the worst fight for Rampage to decide to leave his usual training camp and relax at home.

The countdown shows are very well done and sometimes have helpful information for capping. You should watch them.

[omalley21]

I'm American and I really don't know what you're talking about. Yes, we have the best training camps in the world here like Greg Jackson's and AKA and American Top Team, but that doesn't mean that training anywhere in the States is better than training anywhere in England. Wolfslair has some excellent fighters.

I am confident that Rampage's training partners now, in Orange County, are not anywhere near the caliber of his partners in England. Who is he even training with? Tiki Ghosn? Not to mention the fact that in my opinion, Bisping is one of the best training partners for a fighter to prepare against Machida. Obviously Machida is much better, but Bisping is also hard to hit, fast and precise with his strikes. This was the worst fight for Rampage to decide to leave his usual training camp and relax at home.

Frankly, the countdown shows are very well done and sometimes have important information for capping. You should watch them.

Good points, especially Tiki ghosn. But Rampage should find a better camp than wolfslair.

And your right, I should watch the countdown show, do you know when they are re-airing it?

[lasker]

You can find the countdown show (in segments for each of the three main fights) on UFC.com

[Vaughany]

I usually don't watch the countdown shows. Tristar in Canada is an exception. Wolfslair is garbage. Are you really trying to say that British mma camps are on par with the us? Are you from england or something? Look at the track records. They speak for themselves.

What about Fedor...he doesnt train in US? Overeem? Are you sayin fighters that have barely trained in the US are all garbage? Ross Pearson, Hathaway, Etim, Vemola, Siver, Krauss? Based on your theory Hathaway should of been destroyed by Diego Sanchez and Rick Story? Pearson should have been destroyed by Riley? Moreover, the Team UK on TUF must of not completely dominated that show?!

You're using the term US very broadly, if you mean do UK camps like Team Kaoben, Rough House, London Shootfighters and of course Wolfslair compare with the elite camps such as Team Jackson, Grudge, AKA, American Top Team, Roufuss MMA, then of course probly not. However not every camp in the US is automatically 'elite' and at their level just because they are in the US! The camp Rampage has had for this fight is an example. He's not gone to Team Jackson, Alliance, AKA, etc... he's just gone with his little bitch Tiki to an abandoned warehouse 5 minutes away from his home. At least at Wolfslair he was gettin put out of his comfort zone and totally focused on training...not on playing Call of Duty with his kids (as Lask says)!

Of course, this doesnt mean Rampage cant beat Machida, on the contrary he'll always have the chance of getting a TKO/KO and I'll be hedging a Machida by decision play with Rampage KO of the Night because of this. However, his chances of getting this arnt going to be enhanced by him training in the US!

[lasker]

There will probably be one more addition, Sotiropoulous/Lauzon get FOTN, but the odds aren't out yet on 5dimes. I think this one will live up to the hype.

[Vaughany]

You can find the countdown show (in segments for each of the three main fights) on UFC.com

They are on youtube now as well, on UFC's official channel I believe. I particularly liked the J-Lau/Sotiropolous preview...big fan of both guys, still think Sot should take the decision tho.

[Vaughany]

There will probably be one more addition, Sotiropoulous/Lauzon get FOTN, but the odds aren't out yet on 5dimes. I think this one will live up to the hype.

I agree, I reckon this fight or Brown/Foster have best potential for FOTN. Both are +500 on paddy, I'm waiting for skybets FOTN odds before making a play though.

[lasker]

tiny quasi-hedge, since i have Davis in a few parlays (way more than I listed here): Boetsch wins in round 1 +1925: 0.31u to win 6u

Not gonna happen, I hope. But I figure that if Boetsch doesn't win via "lucky punch" in the first round, it means he was dominated in the first round and won't come back to win from that. So I'm hoping a bet on Boetsch in round 1 is almost as good as a bet on Boetsch straight up, but obviously with much better odds.

[rocky mattioli]

great thread lasker...glad you`re getting in early...very helpful...


hoping that machida is a tad careful after the rua fight...moving, using leg kicks to slow down jackson....i thought the griffin fight pretty much set the template for beating rampage(at least so far as a machida-style fighter might be concerned)...

i don`t see rampage going the way of evans....much better chin...his striking stoppages were in frantic,balls to the wall brawls vs very physical guys(rua and silva)... due to rough house muay thai and soccer kicks to the head(lol)....

short of a lucky head kick,i don`t see machida stopping him with just strikes...the only thing that worries me is that jackson could get discouraged if he`s having trouble finding machida(which he should)...

glad it`s only 3.because i like the decision prop somebody mentioned at +159....

excellent...