Originally posted by lasker
-
Ah right, I thought 5dimes did those type of props. Well, +1300 is still worth a play, it's only +700 on paddypower.Comment -
"Keith Jardine is persistent, if nothing else, as "The Mean 1" tries to snap a five-fight losing streak when he takes on Francisco France at "MMA Global Invasion" on Nov. 13 at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic."
A welcome step down in competition for Jardine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Franco
If Jardine loses to a 117 year old Spanish dictator, he should definitely retire. I hope he puts a whuppin on Franco... I've always hated totalitarians.Comment -
[quote=lasker;6990181
If Jardine loses to a 117 year old Spanish dictator, he should definitely retire. I hope he puts a whuppin on Franco... I've always hated totalitarians.[/quote]
http://instantrimshot.com/
i understand that jardine`s steel cage match with ferdinand and isabella fell through....Comment -
For tonight's Bellator card:
Askren -270 (got this earlier, today line is at -300): 4u to win 1.48u
Huerta +220: 2u to win 4.4u
Frausto +350: 1u to win 3.5u
Briefly: Lyman Good has won most of his fights thanks to his wrestling, but Askren's wrestling is obviously of an different caliber entirely. Askren's submission game is likely better as well, and his conditioning is top-notch, which is good to know given that it's a five round fight. Add to this the fact that Good is coming off of a year-long layoff, and it's very difficult for me to envision Askren losing this fight.
I have given my thoughts on Huerta-Alvarez already on a different thread. No doubt that Alvarez is a better fighter but Huerta thrives in brawls, and that's the type of fight Alvarez has explicitly said he plans on bringing. Alvarez will be fighting to Huerta's strength. This may not be enough for Huerta to overcome the disparity, but it's enough for me to take him at these odds. In all likelihood it's going to go to decision and, as we've seen, anything can happen once it goes to decision.
Frausto will probably lose but I couldn't pass up a bet at +350. Fujii has not fought opponents with Frausto's striking ability. Also the fact that Frausto has been training with Jorge Gurgel (now her boyfriend) gives me some hope that she can survive on the ground long enough to scramble back to her feet. Frausto has decent takedown defense and will have a notable advantage as long as the fights stays standing.
BOL
Comment -
Originally posted by laskerFor tonight's Bellator card:
Askren -270 (got this earlier, today line is at -300): 4u to win 1.48u
Huerta +220: 2u to win 4.4u
Frausto +350: 1u to win 3.5u
Briefly: Lyman Good has won most of his fights thanks to his wrestling, but Askren's wrestling is obviously of an different caliber entirely. Askren's submission game is likely better as well, and his conditioning is top-notch, which is good to know given that it's a five round fight. Add to this the fact that Good is coming off of a year-long layoff, and it's very difficult for me to envision Askren losing this fight.
I have given my thoughts on Huerta-Alvarez already on a different thread. No doubt that Alvarez is a better fighter but Huerta thrives in brawls, and that's the type of fight Alvarez has explicitly said he plans on bringing. Alvarez will be fighting to Huerta's strength. This may not be enough for Huerta to overcome the disparity, but it's enough for me to take him at these odds. In all likelihood it's going to go to decision and, as we've seen, anything can happen once it goes to decision.
Frausto will probably lose but I couldn't pass up a bet at +350. Fujii has not fought opponents with Frausto's striking ability. Also the fact that Frausto has been training with Jorge Gurgel (now her boyfriend) gives me some hope that she can survive on the ground long enough to scramble back to her feet. Frausto has decent takedown defense and will have a notable advantage as long as the fights stays standing.
BOL
have an askren/alvarez parlay.....and an askren/alvarez/fuji parlay....
i know...not real creative..... been riding the frausto train,but in truth,she`s won a few decisions she didn`t deserve....on the positive side,somebody at bellator likes frausto....so if she can keep from getting subbed,she has a real chance....
gonna try and find a stream...nice little card...
btw...is it me,or has bellator`s judging exceeded the ufc in ineptitude?......they`ve had some horrific decisions....Comment -
Good job on your parlay. Askren-Good went according to script, except for the idiot ref deciding to stand them up when Askren had FULL MOUNT...Originally posted by rocky mattioli
I was way off on Alvarez-Huerta. I thought Huerta would probably lose but I expected him to be way more competitive than that. Not many people were choosing Huerta and sure enough, Alvarez just dominated him completely. Ecco was right to point out that Huerta's heart just isn't in fighting anymore, whereas for Alvarez that's his life's dedication. I did "hedge" a bit with Alvarez in a few crazy 8-12 team parlays, so who knows...
Anyway, small loss of -0.52u for the night. Fujii-Frausto is actually only next week, so we'll see if Frausto can do better than Huerta as the underdog. She should be practicing nothing but movement and takedown defense and sweeps and wall walks and escapes. Rinse and repeat. Hope you're reading this, Zoila!Comment -
Yeah, I have no idea where they get these refs. I understand they want to keep action going, but FFS.Originally posted by laskerexcept for the idiot ref deciding to stand them up when Askren had FULL MOUNT...Comment -
Originally posted by laskerGood job on your parlay. Askren-Good went according to script, except for the idiot ref deciding to stand them up when Askren had FULL MOUNT...
I was way off on Alvarez-Huerta. I thought Huerta would probably lose but I expected him to be way more competitive than that. Not many people were choosing Huerta and sure enough, Alvarez just dominated him completely. Ecco was right to point out that Huerta's heart just isn't in fighting anymore, whereas for Alvarez that's his life's dedication. I did "hedge" a bit with Alvarez in a few crazy 8-12 team parlays, so who knows...
Anyway, small loss of -0.52u for the night. Fujii-Frausto is actually only next week, so we'll see if Frausto can do better than Huerta as the underdog. She should be practicing nothing but movement and takedown defense and sweeps and wall walks and escapes. Rinse and repeat. Hope you're reading this, Zoila!
hope you don`t mind my coming into your threads...i come into yours and ecco`s threads because i have a very high opinion of you guys and your capping prowess....
you weren`t the only solid capper on the net seeing some real value on huerta......a friend and fellow poster on another site said that"it seems to be a match-up of full-time fighter vs part time fighter"...i think that helped me form my opinion......i think that huerta is better than he showed yesterday...it`s possible that his priorities are a bit screwed up at this point in his career...he is a movie star now,after all..lol
anyway, guys like yourself and ecco make this place a great tool for airing opinions pro and con....you guys are total gentlemen interested in the gathering and dissemination of opinions and info....
when you look at the "mma forums" on exclusively mma sites(sherdog/mmajunkie/mma weekly),what usually passes for dialogue is the obligatory "fanboy clusterf-ck pissing match" ...very little of value to be found...when you leave those forums you feel as though your septic tank just backed up....
i`m repeating myself,but i`ve looked around the net and i honestly think that this forum is as good as it gets....yourself,ecco,illmatick,eduard,v aughany,brooks....the linchpins...and others are solid also...
i`m constantly finding solid info here regarding some of the more obscure undercard bouts...
obviously i`m tickled to have found the forum....
Comment -
Of course I don't mind you participating in my thread, especially with comments like that
. We're all here to make money, and a few heads thinking together are always better than one. I agree, there are definitely some solid handicappers on this site. I'm particularly impressed with Ecco and Illmatick, and all the guys you mentioned are good.
I don't even bother with the sherdog nonsense anymore, unless there's a specific article or interview there which can help me from a betting perspective. Most of it is trash and a complete waste of time.
I must admit that part of me is ashamed to be an MMA fan, not only because of the violent nature of the sport but even more so because of the immaturity of most (at least it seems to be most) fans. Comments like "kill him!" or "**** him up!" bother me deeply, and it makes me wonder about the effect the sport has on society at large. Dana White is absolutely correct that fighting (or fascination with fighting, at least) is in our DNA, but I'm not convinced that means we ought to embrace it. There is something grotesque about cheering and celebrating when another human being is laying there unconscious on the ground. Even when I win money on a fight, I try to keep this in perspective.
As hypocritical as it may be, I continue watching and supporting the sport. I do have tremendous respect for the athletes. I have made money betting on it over the years, and despite my efforts in soccer and tennis I really can't say the same for my results betting on other sports. And as a tournament chess player I love thinking about MMA strategies and different angles from which to analyze an upcoming fight. The overused descriptions of certain fights as "quite the chess match" get irksome sometimes, but there are definite comparisons to be made between the two in terms of strategy and tactics.
I hope more people start threads in the MMA forum here, and it's already a fertile ground for debate and discussion. Good luck this weekend
Comment -
UFC 121 Recap
And tonight's gonna be a good, good night...
Schaub +155: 5u to win 7.75u
Schaub wins in the 3rd round +2000 (don't really understand this line, when Gonzaga in the 3rd round is +1000): 1u to win 20u
Hamill -160: 4u to win 2.5u
Madsen -245: 3u to win 1.22u
Kampmann by submission +1300: 1u to win 13u
Jensen +200: 1u to win 2u
Late addition:
Lesnar inside the distance -120: 2u to win 1.67uComment -
GL tonight lasker. Shields looked gaunt at the weigh ins - its making me question my goes to decision prop. Come round 3, he may not have much left in the tank. I may hedge with Kampmann inside the distance or in round 3. I've also had the itch to add Lesnar for the last couple of days. Line value is disappearing so I might just stay away, but the more i think about it, the more I think he gets it done.Comment -
GL lasker
Really like SchaubComment -
Glad I'm not the only guy with a U on Jensen. And yeah I'm having second thoughts about the Madsen
fight, too. Fortunately haven't bet anything yet.
Comment -
Thanks guys, BOL. Yeah Ecco, like you I've just really started liking Lesnar's chances the past few days. Hopefully I won't regret it, but anyway it's not a huge bet I have on the Viking. I'd love Kampmann to win inside the distance as long as it's not by TKO/KO
I think Jake Shields is a poor striker but he does excel at not getting hit, plus Kampmann's not super powerful so I like my chances. But you're right that Shields looked gaunt. My bets on the fight going three rounds are just in parlays.
Comment -
sharp play on Jensen
I'm on Hamill and Schaub as wellComment -
That last result may have cost me between 20K and 25K. I'm not joking. I'll post a screenshot of the parlay(s) after the next Bellator and UFC events to show what I mean. Had Lesnar won inside the distance I could have hit very, very big.
What sucks is that I had even hedged with Cain in rounds 2, 3, and 4 in parlays that probably would have hit (like many others pointed out, Cain was a very live dog and I knew I should have just avoided betting this fight altogether). Posted the screenshot of one below. Of course, I didn't bother with Cain in round 1 since I just didn't think he could finish Lesnar so quickly. Doesn't it always seem to work like that?
Kicking myself now, this loss hurts like never before.
Congrats to Velasquez, he's an absolute beast. He may well hold the belt for quite some time.Attached FilesComment -
-
Originally posted by laskerUFC 121 Recap
And tonight's gonna be a good, good night...
Schaub +155: 5u to win 7.75u
Schaub wins in the 3rd round +2000 (don't really understand this line, when Gonzaga in the 3rd round is +1000): 1u to win 20u
Hamill -160: 4u to win 2.5u
Madsen -245: 3u to win 1.22u
Kampmann by submission +1300: 1u to win 13u
Jensen +200: 1u to win 2u (get some freakin cardio, Mr. Jensen)
Late addition:
Lesnar inside the distance -120: 2u to win 1.67u
Results: +6.47u
I wish I could say it went exactly like this for me in real life, but unfortunately I bet too many parlays and they were all busted in the main event. After Schaub won so comfortably I was quite sure one of my longshot parlays was going to come through. Any other result in the main event besides a decision or Cain winning in round 1 would have made profit, most results being good chances big profit (that is, for poor little ol' me). Hope the rest of you had a winning night.
Damn. Won't be getting much sleep tonight.Comment -
Good night last night Lasker. Schaub looked good, but he needs to never go for TDs again against a guy like Gonzaga..my heart dropped for a second
.
Comment -
Gd stuff with Schaub Lasker, I should of gone with my initial gut feeling rather than worrying about Gonzaga training at Xtreme Couture and having a good gameplan for once! Yet again he barely tried to take the fight to the ground and didnt use enough leg kicks
Shame Schaub didnt get the TKO though!
I was also thinking that Id missed out on the Jensen at +200 value when watching the first round. If he had cardio he'd of won tht fight comfortably, and was still the right bet given the value.Comment -
congrats on schaub,L.........i think the most disappointing part of the night for me was jensen being utterly unprepared to go the 3 round distance in a high profile ufc opportunity.....vs the ultimate fighter winner....
i could understand if the 1st round had been fought at a ridiculous pace with tons os intense striking exchanges and groundwork...but it was a rather mediocre pace with both guys picking their spots...
about a minute into the second it was becoming obvious that jensen was dead in the water....i`ve always believed that cardio wasn`t something that was solely dependent on how hard you work on conditioning....just like speed and srength and reflexes,it`s largely dependent on genetics...you can tweek it...you can maximize it...but if it`s not terribly good,well,it`s going to be an issue vs someone with better natural cardio in a long, drawn out struggle....
but,imo,this wasn`t the case...that pace wasn`t all that intense....
very disappointing....jensen was having his way with mcgee....Comment -
It's inexcusable. It's true that some athletes will naturally have better cardio than others, but I believe that for any fighter with bad cardio it's an issue that can be eliminated with enough work in the gym. Three rounds are fifteen minutes, often at an intense pace, but I believe any professional athlete should be able to put in the work to go 15 minutes with two one-minute breaks, even at a frenetic pace. To gas as quickly as Jensen did, when the pace wasn't even intense (relative to many other fights), it only shows that he didn't put in the work. If I was a coach cardio would be the first and highest priority for all my fighters. It doesn't matter how good you are if you don't have cardio, and it just seems highly unprofessional and embarrassing to show up to a UFC fight in the kind of condition Jensen was in. I agree with you vaughany, a conditioned Jensen could have won that fight fairly easily.Comment -
1. Jensen is huge for the weightclass so no telling how hard the cut was for him
2. Much like Leonard Garcia, Jensen throws a lot of high energy strikes, causing him to gass
it was still a good play at +200, turned out to be my only loss for the night.Comment -
I agree with both points ill, but I still think that there are plenty of fighters who make big weight cuts and/or throw high energy strikes, but through practice cuts and lots of hard work in the gym they show up with cardio for a three round war. I'm not saying Jensen should have amazing cardio, but gassing after just one round at that pace seems highly suspect and unprofessional to me. If I'm not mistaken he has been a middleweight his entire UFC career, so he should have plenty of practice making the cut properly.Comment -
Very interesting stat with Ryan Jensen -- of his 22 fights, only three have gone past the first round! He has never gone the distance. In the UFC two have gone past the first round and he lost both. The other loss was in his fight against Wilson Gouveia, and then as well he won the first round only to gass at the start of the second round and lose by submission. He seems to go all out in the first round, but at this weight class he really struggles with his cardio beyond that.Comment -
All that and the biggest dog winner of the night? Tom ******* Lawlor. And the worst part is that Sherdog called it, right before the editor was killed for not following the handicappers.
Seriously, did anyone on here or any betting site anywhere in this or any other universe even bring that fight up to be spat upon?Comment -
[quote=jacktheknife;7079427]All that and the biggest dog winner of the night? Tom ******* Lawlor. And the worst part is that Sherdog called it, right before the editor was killed for not following the handicappers.
I did, well I had it to go to decision at least!Comment -
I thought Cote would win but didn't see any value given the odds, so luckily I stayed away from that one. I didn't expect Lawlor to be able to take Cote down at will and control him so easily. Very impressive performance from the comedian.Originally posted by jacktheknifeComment -
Jake Ellenberger has been talking all sorts of trash trying to pick a fight with Jake Shields. I actually like Ellenberger's chances against Shields, especially since Shields would probably be a big favorite. But Shields is a notch above him on the UFC ladder, so he he'll either get an immediate a title shot (probably not, it would be a hard sell after that performance) or a top contender like Condit or Fitch.
Shields poses no threat to GSP whatsoever. I'm not basing this off of his performance vs Kampmann, I've just felt that way for a while. GSP's wrestling is just too good, and his jiu-jitsu is good enough to survive if he gets taken down (which wouldn't happen much, if at all). On the feet it's no contest. That fight would be a one-sided beatdown. I think Shields has a much better chance against Anderson Silva than GSP, to be honest, despite the size difference.Comment -
I agree on both counts Lasker....I'd take Ellenberger at +200 to +275 range for sure, although a lot will depend on Shields sorting out the weight cut and whether he has better cardio in the future as a result. I have little doubt tht Ellenberger would beat the Shields that showed up the other night. White seems pretty set on giving him GSP next though so I doubt Ellenberger's trash talking will come to anything. I think he'd be better off pressing for a rematch against Condit surely seeing as he lost by split decision and ther both coming off good wins. With regard to GSP, Shields offers nothing IMO, I think Koscheck and Fitch have a better chance but I'm 90% sure GSP is going to dominate Kos as well.Originally posted by laskerComment -
Bellator 33 and 34 Results: +2.98 unitsOriginally posted by laskerFor tonight's Bellator card:
Askren -270 (got this earlier, today line is at -300): 4u to win 1.48u
Huerta +220: 2u to win 4.4u
Frausto +350: 1u to win 3.5u
Comment -
MFC 27 tonight:
Razak al-Hassan -195: 3u to win 1.54uComment -
like others here I was leaning towards Rodney Wallace when he was the dog, but didn't make the bet in time and at evens its a no-play for me. Normally I would like Wallace still, but he's a late replacement and Heath has looked good lately. Cardio might be an issue for Wallace, and Heath is a much better striker too.Comment -
Wondered wer u had been Lask...not heard much about WEC52 or 122 from you!? Got any plays done or planned for tomorrow?Comment -
Yeah, I've just been busy writing essays and working so I decided I needed a little time off from this crazy world of betting...
I'll post some thoughts tomorrow, since I don't have much time tonight and still need to ponder the fights a bit more.Comment -
sick and tired of this bullshit. Learn how to judge, you morons. Imbeciles.Originally posted by lasker
al-Hassan "loses" via split-decision, otherwise known as highway robbery. Anyone who saw that fight, other than two bribed or blind judges, knows who really won.
Anyway, result of -3u for the night.Comment
