Lasker's MMA Picks

[lasker]

UFC 125 Recap

Gomi/Guida goes 3 round distance +160: 5u to win 8u

Diaz/Kim goes 3 round distance -210: 2.1u to win 1u

Daniel Roberts -115: 3u to win 2.61u

Daniel Roberts +110: 1u to win 1.1u

Jeremy Stephens -135: 5u to win 3.7u

Brad Tavares -175: 2.5u to win 1.43u

Jacob Volkmann +150: 3u to win 4.5u

Edgar wins by 5 round decision +205: 1u to win 2.05u

Edgar points handicap +3½ -120: 2.4u to win 2u

Kim wins by 3 round decision +145: 1u to win 1.45u

Kim wins by 3 round decision +155: 2u to win 3.1u

Diaz wins in round 3 +1270: 0.5u to win 6.35u

Diego Nunes +205: 1.5u to win 3.08u

Gomi wins by submission +1745: 0.5u to win 8.73u

T.Gomi wins by submission +2415: 0.25u to win 6.04u

and now adding: Guida wins in round 3 +1125: 0.27u to win 3u


edit: also had (from top of page 12)

Guida -150: 2.5u to win 1.67u

Stann +160: 3u to win 4.8u

-- posted those so long ago that I forgot about them!

[lasker]

Couldn't have asked for a better start. Volkmann wins by split decision and Roberts wins in round 1. And Nunes wins by split decision. And Tavares wins in round 1.

[illmatick]

cashed with Nunes as well , good thing you stuck with Roberts...I ended up staying away from the fight.

[Vaughany]

Couldn't have asked for a better start. Volkmann wins by split decision and Roberts wins in round 1. And Nunes wins by split decision. And Tavares wins in round 1.

Add Lil Heathen to that...awesome shiiit Lask!

[lasker]

Well a great night for me, though bittersweet because I barely missed on what would have been by far the biggest parlay win of my life. I'll post an image of it soon. As modest compensation, I hit a nice little SBR parlay:

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[33559] B STANN +135
(B STANN vrs C LEBEN)
[33562] T SILVA -137
(B VERA vrs T SILVA)
[33563] D H KIM -115
(D H KIM vrs NATE DIAZ)
[33565] C GUIDA +130
(C GUIDA vrs T GOMI)

100.00 / 1648.09

[Vaughany]

Great night for u Lask...congrats

[lasker]

Before I tally up the results for this thread, I should applaud Edgar and Maynard for an amazing main event. So many people thought that fight would be a snoozer, but it was riveting and Frankie Edgar is my hero . I know it was a draw and have no problem with that result, as I think it was the correct score (Maynard won rd 1 10-8 along with rd 3, while Edgar won rds 2, 4, and 5). But Edgar is the moral victor in my eyes, to come back from such a beating in the first round to win three out of the four remaining rounds was just incredible. I definitely feel I was on the right side of that bet with Edgar by decision, but his getting dominated in that first round changed both the scoring and the overall flow of the fight. Imagine if he had not been caught like that in the first? There's no telling for sure, of course, but I think Edgar would have won a clear decision. I know it's an "if" and we can play the "if" game forever, but Edgar is overall the better fighter, make no mistake about it, and in the rematch I will bet on him without hesitation. To come back from that first round the way he did was astonishing, and there's no question that he was far from 100% for the remaining four rounds when he fought his heart out.

[Vaughany]

Before I tally up the results for this thread, I should applaud Edgar and Maynard for an amazing main event. So many people thought that fight would be a snoozer, but it was riveting and Frankie Edgar is my hero . .

I second that! I'm gonna be suicidal when he meets Pettis...my two heros!

[ddream1]

yup, i still think edgar won, lol. great great fight. and congrats good sir on a fine event and more importantly a profitable year!!

[99Boxster]

I thought it was unbelievable after coming back, Frankie stuffed every takedown. Somebody posted earlier that gray maynard was like 80% success rate on takedowns in the ufc.

[lasker]

Here are the results:

UFC 125 Recap

Gomi/Guida goes 3 round distance +160: 5u to win 8u

Diaz/Kim goes 3 round distance -210: 2.1u to win 1u

Daniel Roberts -115: 3u to win 2.61u

Daniel Roberts +110: 1u to win 1.1u

Jeremy Stephens -135: 5u to win 3.7u

Brad Tavares -175: 2.5u to win 1.43u

Jacob Volkmann +150: 3u to win 4.5u

Edgar wins by 5 round decision +205: 1u to win 2.05u (not a push, unfortunately, because of the draw option)

Edgar points handicap +3½ -120: 2.4u to win 2u

Kim wins by 3 round decision +145: 1u to win 1.45u

Kim wins by 3 round decision +155: 2u to win 3.1u

Diaz wins in round 3 +1270: 0.5u to win 6.35u

Diego Nunes +205: 1.5u to win 3.08u

Gomi wins by submission +1745: 0.5u to win 8.73u

T.Gomi wins by submission +2415: 0.25u to win 6.04u

Guida wins in round 3 +1125: 0.27u to win 3u

Guida -150: 2.5u to win 1.67u

Stann +160: 3u to win 4.8u

Result for UFC 125: +22.92u

2011 YTD: +22.92u

Not a bad way to start off the new year, eh? Just wish Clay wouldn't have finished Gomi, that would have added another 13u to the total. But I'm not complaining!

[Vaughany]

Ha yeah and if Edgar had sneaked a split-decision win it would of gone from being an amazing night to a damn right miracle night!

Any early thoughts on your main plays for Fight for the Troops? Im thinking of a big straddle involving Dunham to win and Guillard by decision depending on odds. Hominick will be my other main play if -200 or better. And of course McKenzie Submission of the Night!

[lasker]

Here's the reason the night was bittersweet. Seems like I come close to something huge every two or three events. This time it was pretty tantalizing. Just missed with the method of Stann's victory and freakin Josh "the punching bag" Grispi. One dollar to win over ten thousand!

[Vaughany]

Damnnn very close!

[lasker]

Ha yeah and if Edgar had sneaked a split-decision win it would of gone from being an amazing night to a damn right miracle night! Any early thoughts on your main plays for Fight for the Troops? Im thinking of a big straddle involving Dunham to win and Guillard by decision depending on odds. Hominick will be my other main play if -200 or better. And of course McKenzie Submission of the Night!

I'll have to get back to you on it, haven't put enough thought into those fights yet! I'll try to post some plays for it soon. Not crazy about the straddle, but that's not surprising because I rarely like big straddles myself, it's just not my style. But you're very successful with them so I can't argue with your results. In this case I'd worry about Guillard winning by TKO/KO -- not that I expect it to happen, but it's a real possibility against the all-too-hittable Dunham, and that would destroy your straddle which would be ashame if you go big on it. In general I prefer just going big on one side or the other, whichever seems to present more value. I guess it will all depend on the odds you get when it comes to betting the straddle or not.

Agreed, I'd be very surprised if Hominick doesn't dominate Roop. And yes, McKenzie for submission of the night! That guy is ridiculous! Also can't really see Barry losing to Beltran, that seems like a mismatch to me.

[Jordan23]

You had a very amazing night! Wow how amazing it would have been if you had hit that parlay! Oh well if you were that close this time you're bound to hit one eventually. 23 units in one night.. Congrats!

[lasker]

yup, i still think edgar won, lol. great great fight. and congrats good sir on a fine event and more importantly a profitable year!!

You too ddream!

You had a very amazing night! Wow how amazing it would have been if you had hit that parlay! Oh well if you were that close this time you're bound to hit one eventually. 23 units in one night.. Congrats!

I hope so, but the only question is how long it's gonna take before I hit one! With my luck I'll be an old man when it finally happens. If I had the discipline to not play parlays I would have made much more money on MMA. Maybe that should be one of new year's resolutions, not to play parlays (at least not more than three teams) this year. My picks are ok but my money management is really pitiful... keeping track of results here should help keep me more conservative. Lately this thread has way better results than I do.

[Jordan23]

You too ddream! I hope so, but the only question is how long it's gonna take before I hit one! With my luck I'll be an old man when it finally happens. If I had the discipline to not play parlays I would have made much more money on MMA. Maybe that should be one of new year's resolutions, not to play parlays (at least not more than three teams) this year. My picks are ok but my money management is really pitiful... keeping track of results here should help keep me more conservative. Lately this thread has way better results than I do.

Well do me a favor let me know you're next $1 parlay! haha I'll be on it... Time to gear up for UFC 126!

[urge2kill]

Nice start to the year

[Shagdogy]

Congrats Lasker. Outrageous start!

[Mr.Kitty]

Here are the results: Result for UFC 125: +22.92u 2011 YTD: +22.92u Not a bad way to start off the new year, eh? Just wish Clay wouldn't have finished Gomi, that would have added another 13u to the total. But I'm not complaining!

Way to start the year, well done. Cashed in on Roberts myself.

[Vaughany]

I'll have to get back to you on it, haven't put enough thought into those fights yet! I'll try to post some plays for it soon. Not crazy about the straddle, but that's not surprising because I rarely like big straddles myself, it's just not my style. But you're very successful with them so I can't argue with your results. In this case I'd worry about Guillard winning by TKO/KO -- not that I expect it to happen, but it's a real possibility against the all-too-hittable Dunham, and that would destroy your straddle which would be ashame if you go big on it. In general I prefer just going big on one side or the other, whichever seems to present more value. I guess it will all depend on the odds you get when it comes to betting the straddle or not.

Agreed, I'd be very surprised if Hominick doesn't dominate Roop. And yes, McKenzie for submission of the night! That guy is ridiculous! Also can't really see Barry losing to Beltran, that seems like a mismatch to me.

Yeah Dunham does seem to almost enjoy gettin in a scrap and gettin hit at times, like the Sherk fight he was just aggressive as hell amd would of got tagged big time if he was against a decent counter striker. However, if Guillard uses a similar elusive strategy to the Stephens fight then I doubt he'll connect with a hard enough blow to hurt Dunham. Dunham's main advantage will be his BJJ and reach and maybe he'll even have wrestling advantage. I expect he'll be anywhere between -130 to -175 range favourite so as you say will all depend on the odds.

Hopefully Hominick comes out undervalued like he did against Garcia and maybe Roops highlight reel KO of Korean Zombie will help get a reasonable line on Hominick. And yeah Im considering a Team Duke Rouffus double with Mitrione and Barry! Mexicutioner is too easy to hit, and hopefully Barry will of learnt from the Cro-Cop debacle that he needs to be more clinical. If this event is anything like the last Fight for the Troops, which was one of my favourite events, we can expect some brutal finishes and great fights! Saunders' destruction of Brandon Wolff, Cantwell snappin Razak Al-Hassan's arm, and Corey Hill's leg were all insane finishes!

[snake11eyes]

Excellent job lasker. Keep up the good work.

[Eccocide]

Very nice Lasker! Congrats.

[gym rat]

You kicked some ass on that card Lasker! I did very well too but would have done better if Davis could have pulled out a win. I had several units on him to win. Several of my larger underdogs lately where I've had some decent money on have just killed me by losing near end of fight. Davis and Sonnen most notably.

[lasker]

Thanks guys, let's keep winning!

So far just one play for UFC 126, now adding a second. It's squarish but I expect all the favorites on the main card to win. Chances are one of them will lose, but it's hard for me to make a strong case for any of the five underdogs. On paper and by the odds this has to be one of the most mismatched main cards in quite a while. I bet Franklin -150 at the opener, now I'm adding Anderson Silva. I think he should be around -350 over Belfort so I'm going with:

Silva -265: 3u to win 1.13u

[Vaughany]

Thanks guys, let's keep winning!

So far just one play for UFC 126, now adding a second. It's squarish but I expect all the favorites on the main card to win. Chances are one of them will lose, but it's hard for me to make a strong case for any of the five underdogs. On paper and by the odds this has to be one of the most mismatched main cards in quite a while. I bet Franklin -150 at the opener, now I'm adding Anderson Silva. I think he should be around -350 over Belfort so I'm going with:

Silva -265: 3u to win 1.13u

I agree, and with Belfort's long lay-off I cant see Anderson losing. Dont know yet whether I'm going to do a single bet on Anderson or put him in a parlay with Ellenberger and Pierce or something.

[Vaughany]

who knows, but I don't think we're gonna get -125 or better. hope i'm wrong! i think it will be around -170.

Just got Franklin/Griffin to decision at +120. Unfortunatley Paddypower have implemented ridiculously low maximum bets on my account now so could only put 2.2 units on Was gonna put a hell of a lot more on as Im pretty sure it will end up at least +150 for it to not go the distance so would of been a perfect arb opportunity.

[lasker]

Just got Franklin/Griffin to decision at +120. Unfortunatley Paddypower have implemented ridiculously low maximum bets on my account now so could only put 2.2 units on Was gonna put a hell of a lot more on as Im pretty sure it will end up at least +150 for it to not go the distance so would of been a perfect arb opportunity.

another steal! great bet, I never thought that would be offered anywhere near +120!

[gym rat]

Before reading that you were looking for the arb, I was thinking that is a risky bet. Both of these guys chins are very suspect so there is a good chance this one does not go distance.

[lasker]

I'll grab a couple of openers in a parlay. I think Barry and Hominick should be even bigger favorites, so for now I'll go with:

Barry -295 / Hominick -210, two-team parlay @-102: 2.04u to win 2u

Argh, no parlays on bookmaker.

[lasker]

Adding:

Wiman +185: 1u to win 1.85u

[Vaughany]

Adding:

Wiman +185: 1u to win 1.85u

Like this and the double! Hoping Sportbet release the lines soon before the odds drop, hate missing out on opening lines!

[NunyaBidness]

I'll grab a couple of openers in a parlay. I think Barry and Hominick should be even bigger favorites, so for now I'll go with:

Barry -295 / Hominick -210, two-team parlay @-102: 2.04u to win 2u

Is this at bookmaker? I can't figure out how to parlay fights there, am I dumb?

[lasker]

Lyoto Machida -205: 5u to win 2.44u