Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I was hoping for some blogs from Dana to show post UFC 144 and pre-UFC on FX 2 shyt... hopefully something will be up in the AM!

Tends to only do blogs for PPVs

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 06:49 AM

Bryan Caraway loses it on twitter over Ronda!...

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/3/3/2841095/bryan-caraway-ronda-rousey-fight-bimbo-miesha-tate

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 07:41 AM

"What do you say to Bryan Caraway if you see him with 2 black eyes? Nothing, Miesha has told him twice already." - Vinny Magalhaes! lol

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

bookmaker still have MM decision as a win for me?

Me too. That's good. Kalikas said it would be changed by now if it were going to be. Now I can just complain about my uncle creepy losses/not wins. Epic bad beat. Still in disbelief.

**rocky mattioli** · 03-03-12, 08:21 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1wgGoTdXyE&feature=player_embedded#t=0s

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

There's a bizzare superstitution that I was keeping track of for the past few years, it's a bizzare reason why Kampman defeated Alves.

12 wins and 3 losses betting if you were to keep betting on this theory for the past 5 years.

I would sound insane and a troll if I made a topic about it, I'm not sure if I should explain it.

It's probably just a coincidence.

Do tell...cant be any crazier than the "new baby phenomena"!

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 08:49 AM

Although now that I see the other thread, I don't see how they won't change it. Damn.

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Although now that I see the other thread, I don't see how they won't change it. Damn.

yeah but like I said in the other thread, they'd have to grade it as loss so tht would mean taking money out of my account, but my account figure is lower than what my stake and winnings were on the Mighty Mouse by decision play as I bet on the Benavidez fight going distance on BM as part of an arb so lost most of my money on BM. They'd have to put me in to a minus figure! Shit, just checked it and looks like they have changed it

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 09:05 AM

Looks like I'm now relying on Rousey just to get me back in the black for the wknd

**rocky mattioli** · 03-03-12, 09:09 AM

the more i look at rousey/tate the more i`m considering taking a shot with tate...rousey is a badass(i have her in a par)...i believe that...but she has a total of 4 fights...all wins in under 1 minute...and all by armbar....tate`s never been subbed....she has oodles of experience and has gone long in fights.....and given her experience,we know she`s a plugger....she hung tough with coenen until she found her spot....

i think rousey`s stronger...more physical....but haven`t seen any real stand-up skill....you have to wonder what happens inside her head if that armbar doesn`t happen early.....will she be mentally tough enough to hang for a full 5 vs a girl who probably has better stand-up and is more well rounded and battle hardened?.....

+260?.......damned shame theres a dearth of props for this fight....

i`m thinking i just can`t pass up taking a shot with the experienced girl at these odds......gonna keep my eyes open for some props to surface(hoping for some sort of " rousey early" hedge to go with the par).....

i think tate might get tossed around early.....but if she gets out of the first round or two,her experience in hard fights should come into play...+260 seems very generous ...i think it`s worth a shot vs what might be a one-trick pony...vs a girl who really hasn`t had much pushback thus far in her mma career...

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 03-03-12, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Looks like I'm now relying on Rousey just to get me back in the black for the wknd

What else do you like tonight? I also have Rousey in a couple of parlays

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

the more i look at rousey/tate the more i`m considering taking a shot with tate...rousey is a badass(i have her in a par)...i believe that...but she has a total of 4 fights...all wins in under 1 minute...and all by armbar....tate`s never been subbed....she has oodles of experience and has gone long in fights.....and given her experience,we know she`s a plugger....she hung tough with coenen until she found her spot....

i think rousey`s stronger...more physical....but haven`t seen any real stand-up skill....you have to wonder what happens inside her head if that armbar doesn`t happen early.....will she be mentally tough enough to hang for a full 5 vs a girl who probably has better stand-up and is more well rounded and battle hardened?.....

+260?.......damned shame theres a dearth of props for this fight....

i`m thinking i just can`t pass up taking a shot with the experienced girl at these odds......gonna keep my eyes open for some props to surface(hoping for some sort of " rousey early" hedge to go with the par).....

i think tate might get tossed around early.....but if she gets out of the first round or two,her experience in hard fights should come into play...+260 seems very generous ...i think it`s worth a shot vs what might be a one-trick pony...vs a girl who really hasn`t had much pushback thus far in her mma career...

Usually I'd agree. But I think the physical side is one of the key things here. I believe the main reason Cyborg has been so dominant is due to the physical advantages she has over all the other females....the Carano fight was best example of this. Without trying to sound sexist or whatever, but a lot of the female fighters just aren't very strong. Although Rousey certainly isn't as manly as Cyborg, she is clearly quite bulky and developed crazy level of balance and physical strength for a female athlete through her years of judo and training with men. I think there is a reason guys like Nick Diaz are happy to have little training sessions with Ronda, they can see that she is a breed apart. I cant imagine many going to Miesha Tate and asking her for advice! Tate by no means is a weak female fighter, but I dont think she has core strength and balance in comparison to Ronda.

Also, Tate has had a bit of a disjointed camp after moving away from Alpha Male. Whether the rumours of Faber throwing her out because she backed Cruz are true or not...all very High Schoolish.... fact is she had to travel around with Caraway to different gyms to get training in. This included a spell most recently at AO8 fitness which as far as Im aware is predominantly stand-up orientated with Melchor Menor as the striking coach. She even admitted in an interview that it wasnt the best of places to train grappling. I wouldnt be suprised if she gets finished then comes out saying tht her camp wasnt great blah blah blah!

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

What else do you like tonight? I also have Rousey in a couple of parlays

Got a play on Thomson at -153 but may arb out. All depends on props being released. Would prefer to play Thomson by decision. Also Semtex by TKO/KO, Rousey by sub

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 09:50 AM

**rocky mattioli** · 03-03-12, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Usually I'd agree. But I think the physical side is one of the key things here. I believe the main reason Cyborg has been so dominant is due to the physical advantages she has over all the other females....the Carano fight was best example of this. Without trying to sound sexist or whatever, but a lot of the female fighters just aren't very strong. Although Rousey certainly isn't as manly as Cyborg, she is clearly quite bulky and developed crazy level of balance and physical strength for a female athlete through her years of judo and training with men. I think there is a reason guys like Nick Diaz are happy to have little training sessions with Ronda, they can see that she is a breed apart. I cant imagine many going to Miesha Tate and asking her for advice! Tate by no means is a weak female fighter, but I dont think she has core strength and balance in comparison to Ronda.

Also, Tate has had a bit of a disjointed camp after moving away from Alpha Male. Whether the rumours of Faber throwing her out because she backed Cruz are true or not...all very High Schoolish.... fact is she had to travel around with Caraway to different gyms to get training in. This included a spell most recently at AO8 fitness which as far as Im aware is predominantly stand-up orientated with Melchor Menor as the striking coach. She even admitted in an interview that it wasnt the best of places to train grappling. I wouldnt be suprised if she gets finished then comes out saying tht her camp wasnt great blah blah blah!

good points...and that was my initial thinking on the fight(the core strength and confidence).....i really wish rousey had a tough fight or two leading up to this one...that would be enough to nudge me to let my rousey par ride(had her with dunham and sonnen at even money)......

i had a par with tehuna/rosa and miller/siler not going the distance along with kampmann last night....really liked both plays and i`m lucky i didn`t get shutout.....

so i`m gonna let the value of the rousey par ride on tate at +260....getting greedy(lol).....so,if my first impression was right,i`ll basically break even...if tate can hang and outlast rousey,i`ll feel pretty good about taking that second look....if rousey subs tate in the first with tate and the rest of the world knowing that`s what rousey`s modus operandi is,then rousey`s obviously the shit......and i`m immediately a big fan.....

not particularly a big fan of tate(with that perpetual smirk she wears on her mug)....i like rousey`s style....i think it would be a real shot in the arm for female mma if she can pull it off......

g.l.,bro...should be fun...

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 03-03-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Got a play on Thomson at -153 but may arb out. All depends on props being released. Would prefer to play Thomson by decision. Also Semtex by TKO/KO, Rousey by sub

cool I have Semtex in my parlays as well..was leaning Thompson, Noons has looked shitty the past few fights..

I had the same live bet as you last night, Johnson by decision+125..Bookmaker just reversed it and graded it as a loss..Maddening how this fight wasn't finished last night due to such a brainfart! McCall had the momentum and would've taken that fight, if it had gone to the 4th round as it should've.

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

good points...and that was my initial thinking on the fight(the core strength and confidence).....i really wish rousey had a tough fight or two leading up to this one...that would be enough to nudge me to let my rousey par ride(had her with dunham and sonnen at even money)......

i had a par with tehuna/rosa and miller/siler not going the distance along with kampmann last night....really liked both plays and i`m lucky i didn`t get shutout.....

so i`m gonna let the value of the rousey par ride on tate at +260....getting greedy(lol).....so,if my first impression was right,i`ll basically break even...if tate can hang and outlast rousey,i`ll feel pretty good about taking that second look....if rousey subs tate in the first with tate and the rest of the world knowing that`s what rousey`s modus operandi is,then rousey`s obviously the shit......and i`m immediately a big fan.....

not particularly a big fan of tate(with that perpetual smirk she wears on her mug)....i like rousey`s style....i think it would be a real shot in the arm for female mma if she can pull it off......

g.l.,bro...should be fun...

yeah Cole Miller fight not going distance scewed me...one fight I was most confident in not going distance after the beef at weigh-in and Miller's constant bashing of fighters tht go distance!

ha yeah she just have a smirk like her sh*t dont stink! I wonder if BM do livebetting for strikeforce events like these? Although Im in a minus figure now anyway on BM due them cancelling the MIghty Mouse decision win!

If Tate had of ran through Coenen than I'd probably not be as confident in Rousey as I am. Granted she ended up subbing Coenen, but tht was after she'd been in trouble at least twice during tht fight. Coenen had her back from most of second round, cant see Rousey being so non-clinical.

Ronda is settin herself up for a big fall and will be eating a lot of crow as we say if she fails tho after the amount of hyping she's done! Here's to hoping she thrives on the pressure!

**zoo youk** · 03-03-12, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1wgG..._embedded#t=0s

some dude on youtubes comments

I aint fappin till they fight im saving all my loads!

goonrush 4 hours ago 18

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 10:51 AM

lol some of the comments are superb

**NunyaBidness** · 03-03-12, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Was worth 2% on a DJ win. Definite value. I mean what are the odds of some aussie misreading the cards? Definitely more than if it were in N.A., but still slim.

Not saying you're wrong at all. Just saying that it needs to be at least considered, its non-zero.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-03-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

There's a bizzare superstitution that I was keeping track of for the past few years, it's a bizzare reason why Kampman defeated Alves.

12 wins and 3 losses betting if you were to keep betting on this theory for the past 5 years.

I would sound insane and a troll if I made a topic about it, I'm not sure if I should explain it.

It's probably just a coincidence.

Attached Files

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah Cole Miller fight not going distance scewed me...one fight I was most confident in not going distance after the beef at weigh-in and Miller's constant bashing of fighters tht go distance!

ha yeah she just have a smirk like her sh*t dont stink! I wonder if BM do livebetting for strikeforce events like these? Although Im in a minus figure now anyway on BM due them cancelling the MIghty Mouse decision win!

If Tate had of ran through Coenen than I'd probably not be as confident in Rousey as I am. Granted she ended up subbing Coenen, but tht was after she'd been in trouble at least twice during tht fight. Coenen had her back from most of second round, cant see Rousey being so non-clinical.

Ronda is settin herself up for a big fall and will be eating a lot of crow as we say if she fails tho after the amount of hyping she's done! Here's to hoping she thrives on the pressure!

Small consolation, but at least they "loaned" you the money for your Benavidez arb.
Edit. Yes, Should be at least the main card fights on live.

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 12:21 PM

Well, looks like they've now changed again to voiding the McCall by decision and Mighty Mouse by decision bets, rather than grading them as a loss! So have now gone from thinking I'd cashed the MM by dec at +125 and ending up with 2.2 units profit for night, to having tht graded as a loss and thinking I'd be down by 22 units to now it being voided along with McCall by dec so now down by 8.821 units!

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:31 PM

At which book? My dec bets at bmaker are still losses.

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 12:35 PM

I think Rousey's family and friends all have big money on her.

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

At which book? My dec bets at bmaker are still losses.

Bookmaker. Just checked, tt still has them graded as a "loss", but I've had the stake for both returned in to my account. This might be just because I was in a negative tho as it states "adjustment - zero out negative balance".

**ghost kid** · 03-03-12, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think Rousey's family and friends all have big money on her.

The Armenians and Venezuelans are on the right side of this one.

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

The Armenians and Venezuelans are on the right side of this one.

Venezuelans?

**ghost kid** · 03-03-12, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Venezuelans?

Latino News | Fox News

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/sports/2012/02/22/mma-q-rowdy-ronda-rousey-on-her-fight-being-latina/

Latino News

**MMAbetMASTA** · 03-03-12, 02:43 PM

here here bro, another bad night for me, hoping 3rd time is a charm tonight for strikeforce and we end up in nice + money!!! GL meng!

**rocky mattioli** · 03-03-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Bryan Caraway loses it on twitter over Ronda!...

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/3/3/2841095/bryan-caraway-ronda-rousey-fight-bimbo-miesha-tate

""Callaway doesn’t have some magic super strength from being a male. You still have to develop muscle and strength specifically to actually have more than an extremely athletic woman.""

whoa dude.....lol.

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 05:40 PM

Summary of Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey plays:

50 units on Rousey at -275 to win 18.182 units (may arb out of this closer to fight time);

6.913 units on Rousey at -201 to win 3.439 units;

Parlay: 6.316 units on Semtex Inside the Distance (-155), Rousey by Submission (-190), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 11.658 units;

Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Rousey Inside the Distance (-165), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.18 units;

4.105 units on Rousey Inside the Distance at -165 to win 2.526 units;

6.306 units on Mighty Mouse/McCall Starts Round 3 (-360), Benavidez/Urushitani Starts Round 2 (-377),Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 8.289 units.

Parlay: 6.315 units on Te-Huna Inside Distance (-175), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 7.891 units.

**rocky mattioli** · 03-03-12, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey plays:

Semtex Inside the Distance (-155), Rousey by Submission (-190),

that would be a very nifty little fun parlay for someone looking to hedge a tate wager....well done,bub....

**Vitooch** · 03-03-12, 05:59 PM

Why not Semtex by TKO/KO?

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Why not Semtex by TKO/KO?

Where is tht available?