Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

"Well first and foremost, they're both good fighters", said Parisyan. "Obviously, Ronda is my girl. She's been training with us for many, many, many years. When she was 8-9 years old her mom would drag her to our school called Hayastan Dojo with Gokor and "Judo" Gene LeBell."
"The thing about that is everybody was afraid of the Hayastan kids, everybody was afraid of us. Except Ronda's mom. Ronda's mom brought Ronda in. She trained with us and she would almost start crying. We'd yell at her and tell her to suck your lip back in and get back in line, and that's what she would do."
"She is a beautiful animal, because she has trained with animals. She trained with us and I know how crazy that was, because no guys had the balls to do it, but Ronda did," stated Parisyan.
"So my take on that fight is, this Miesha Tate chick, off her interview, I can't even stand her anymore... and I'm almost am sure Ronda is gonna rip her arms off."
"Because Ronda is one of those girls that she doesn't have that girly strength, although she's a very pretty girl, she doesn't have that girly strength. If she grabs a hold of you though, she'll rip your limb off."
"So I think in my opinion, she is gonna submit that Miesha whatever he name is...that Miesha Tate chick," concluded Parisyan.

[Vitooch]

Where is tht available?

It may not be available anywhere! Considering how you have like 100 different sportsbook accounts I thought someone would have it lol

[Vaughany]

Adding:


3.157 units on Noons/Thomson to Go the Distance (-185), Jones Inside the Distance (-172), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.56 units.

[v1y]

god damn daley just ****** me.

need a ronda rd1 sub to save the night.

[Vaughany]

Summary of Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey plays:


50 units on Rousey at -275 to win 18.182 units (may arb out of this closer to fight time);


6.913 units on Rousey at -201 to win 3.439 units;


Parlay: 6.316 units on Semtex Inside the Distance (-155), Rousey by Submission (-190), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 11.658 units;


Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Rousey Inside the Distance (-165), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.18 units;


4.105 units on Rousey Inside the Distance at -165 to win 2.526 units;


6.306 units on Mighty Mouse/McCall Starts Round 3 (-360), Benavidez/Urushitani Starts Round 2 (-377),Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 8.289 units.


Parlay: 6.315 units on Te-Huna Inside Distance (-175), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 7.891 units.

Adding:


3.157 units on Noons/Thomson to Go the Distance (-185), Jones Inside the Distance (-172), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.56 units.

+13.726 units profit for the night with a few parlays 3 that just need JDS/Overeem to not go distance which is pretty much a given! Gets me back in the black for the weekend. Would of been one of my best wknds of betting ever had Thiago not gone and tapped but there we go!

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

ha looks like I won a free autographed copy of Matt Lindlands MMA book just because I followed Pat Healy and his psychologist Dr Steve on twitter!

[Beelzebubzy]

Happy to see you got Jones -172 ITD in some parlays

[Vaughany]

Pending plays for future events:


12.499 units on Gustafsson at -166.67 to win 7.499 units;


16.506 units on Stann at -250 to win 6.602 units;

1.147 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +110 to win 1.262 units;


6.716 units on Carmont at -149.25 to win 4.5 units;


Parlay (double): 6.313 units on Stann/Sakara to Not Go the Distance (-170), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.05 units;


15.633 units on Schaub at -250 to win 6.253 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


1.578 units on Udinese Advances (-182), AC Milan 1st Halft PK (-167), Miocic (-440), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 6.275 units;



5.625 units on Ellenberger (-250), Jones (-400), & Anderson Silva (-225) to win 8.594 units;


5.625 units on Sonnen (-225), & Jones (-400) to win 4.531 units;


2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


1.523 units on Jones/Evans to End by TKO/KO at -120 to win 1.269 units;


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Herman/Struve to Not Go the Distance (-420), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-445), Pat Barry (-205), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 10.402 units;

6.306 units on Mighty Mouse/McCall Starts Round 3 (-360), Benavidez/Urushitani Starts Round 2 (-377), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 8.289 units.


Parlay: 6.315 units on Te-Huna Inside Distance (-175), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 7.891 units;


Parlay (double): 6.315 units on Rousey Inside the Distance (-165), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.18 units;


3.157 units on Noons/Thomson to Go the Distance (-185), Jones Inside the Distance (-172), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 5.56 units;


Parlay: 1.577 units on Semerzier/Pineda Under 2.5 Rounds (-110), Te-Huna (-325), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 2.884 units.

[GigaOuts]

12.499 units on Gustafsson at -166.67 to win 7.499 units;

Recent lurker, 2rd time poster.
First I really apprecciated you sharing so much info to the community. I am a noob in mma betting, only site I visit is bestfightodds.com. I really like Gustafsson in this fight but the best odd I can find for him is -260, where do you get the odd -167 if you don't mind sharing.

Thanks
GigaOuts

[Vaughany]

Recent lurker, 2rd time poster.
First I really apprecciated you sharing so much info to the community. I am a noob in mma betting, only site I visit is bestfightodds.com. I really like Gustafsson in this fight but the best odd I can find for him is -260, where do you get the odd -167 if you don't mind sharing.

Thanks
GigaOuts

Nice one, welcome to forum. Got that line on Unibet a month or so ago, actually opened at -125 or something close to tht on there. Best u can get is -225 now on William Hill (if u have access to Euro accoutns tht is). I wouldnt play Gustaf at worse than -175 probably.

[Vitooch]

Do you think I'm better off taking Gustaffson now SU or waiting for Gustaffson ITD?

[GigaOuts]

Nice one, welcome to forum. Got that line on Unibet a month or so ago, actually opened at -125 or something close to tht on there. Best u can get is -225 now on William Hill (if u have access to Euro accoutns tht is). I wouldnt play Gustaf at worse than -175 probably.

I can not get those odd at Unibet or William Hill, maybe they detect my account as professional gambler....lol. Unibet give me -238 and William Hill give me -275 for Gustafsson. Add insult to injury, At Unibet after wasted 5 minutes of my time to register I get this page:

Sorry, registration not accepted

Unibet uses filters that detect potentially fraudulent accounts and stop them from being registered. Sometimes they work too well and stop legitimate customers like yourself from registering. Please accept our apologies, and do contact customer service; they'll be happy to help you quickly sort it out.

Anyway I got 1g on Gustafsson @ -257 and I thought that is a steal.....lol.

[gabe]

I maxed out Gustie at -245 a few days ago and he's at -260 for me now.

[gabe]

I killed in MMA this week, but could have made waaaay more.

Killed in MMA, but down HUUUGE for the week due to tennis.

A lot of huge favs let me down all around this past week!

[Vaughany]

I can not get those odd at Unibet or William Hill, maybe they detect my account as professional gambler....lol. Unibet give me -238 and William Hill give me -275 for Gustafsson. Add insult to injury, At Unibet after wasted 5 minutes of my time to register I get this page:

Sorry, registration not accepted

Unibet uses filters that detect potentially fraudulent accounts and stop them from being registered. Sometimes they work too well and stop legitimate customers like yourself from registering. Please accept our apologies, and do contact customer service; they'll be happy to help you quickly sort it out.

Anyway I got 1g on Gustafsson @ -257 and I thought that is a steal.....lol.

Are u based in USA?

[Beelzebubzy]

V

Did you have a play on Cormier/Barnet? I am small on Cormier at +125.

[Vaughany]

I did have a play on Cormier at +145, but Pinnacle voided it as they had it down for last weekend.

[Dimex9]

thx for the picks

[Vaughany]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]39033[/ATTACH]

haha Now Helwani has piss*d Rousey off on the MMAhour! Asked her why Henry Akins wasnt in her corner...touched a nerve!

[GigaOuts]

Are u based in USA?

I am from Canada, phew!...lucky I don't live in America, land of the free.

[Vaughany]

ha McCorkle killing it on MMAhour again!

[Vaughany]

"What's ur beef with Hague?" - Helwani

"He took my claim of being the worst UFC Heavyweight of all time!" - McCorkle

[illmatick]

TUF 15 cast revealed...

http://www.mmaweekly.com/new-ultimate-fighter-15-cast-revealed

Good to see Myles Jury returning...kid's a beast

Looking forward to watching Jon Tuck and Myles Jury the most. Tuck looked amazing from the limited footage I watched. Guamanian!

[illmatick]

Do you know if Jury is training full time over at Alliance MMA now?

[Vaughany]

Do you know if Jury is training full time over at Alliance MMA now?

Guess he'll go with his boi Lil Heathen

[illmatick]

Yeah that's what I figured. I remember Heathen posting his highlight video a few years back on the UG.

[Vaughany]

Jury's latest blog... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWyTQ...yer_embedded#!

Guess he'll be Cruz's No1 pick if he gets through seeing as he's been training at Alliance

[Vaughany]

For those of u who are partial to statistics (Nunya u autistic dumby!)...Rousey's mum's blog...
http://www.thejuliagroup.com/blog/

Not all statistics are created equal: Proof from Mixed Martial Arts

Filed Under Dr. De Mars General Life Ramblings, statistics | 1 Comment

A few years ago, taking testimony in a court case, an attorney asked me,

“Tell me, doctor, have you heard the saying, ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics’? Isn’t it true what they say, that you can lie with statistics?”

I answered,

“Not to me, you can’t.”

My point that day was that if the person evaluating your statistical argument knows their stuff, you are not going to be able to use statistics to prove a false argument. This past week provided a prime example of that.
On March 3rd, darling daughter number three fought for the world title in mixed martial arts in the 135 pound division. Prior to the fight, several websites had picked her opponent to win, “based on the numbers”. They argued that the sports book odds (which favored Ronda three to one) were influenced by hype, trash-talking, looks, you name it and that if you looked at actual numbers her opponent would win.
What were these numbers? They used statistics like this:

• Average number of punches landed in a fight: The opponent had more
• Average percentage of successful punches in a fight: The opponent had more
• Average number of kicks landed in a fight: The opponent had more
• Average number of the opponents’ punches avoided: The opponent had more
• Average number of successful take down attempts: The opponent had more
• Number of technical knock-outs: The opponent had more
• Percent of submissions: Ronda had more. In fact, she had 100%.

According to these “statistical analyses”, on every dimension but one, Ronda was the weaker fighter and thus, they predicted, she would lose. They pointed out that she had won all of her matches the same was as was therefore clearly a limited fighter. They advised the readers of their blogs and websites to take advantage of these ridiculous odds and place some serious money on the opponent.
There is only one statistic that matters
There were a couple of problems with this analysis. Foremost is that not all statistics are created equal. A submission ends the match and gives you a win. So, even if Ronda’s opponent manages to land 6 punches to her 4 before the submission occurs, once Ronda dislocates the other woman’s elbow and wins by submission, the number of punches is irrelevant. The percentage of times Ronda’s matches have come to a decision – 0%.
One reason Ronda has not landed a bunch of kicks and punches is that she had ended all of her matches up to this point in under a minute. That doesn’t give a lot of time to punch or kick. What about the percentage of successful punches? Surely that is relevant, no? The number of punches, kicks and take downs only is relevant when it comes to a decision. Ronda has been criticized for the fact that she is willing to “eat a couple of punches” on her way in to get into the clinch and throw her opponent, transitioning into a submission. She does this deliberately figuring that hey, she may get hit in the face once but after she does she is going to be close enough to grab you, throw you and break your arm, so it was a calculated risk. She gets a lot of press for her looks and athletic accomplishments, but when the writer from Sports Illustrated asked me to tell her something most people don’t know about Ronda, I told her,

“She’s really good at math.”

One way to understand the error of these armchair statisticians, and why they were so far wrong, is to realize they had failed to realize theirs was an implied conditional probability. We all know that, as this lovely site from Yale University points out:
“If events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A and B (the probability that both events occur) is defined by P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).”
On the condition that Ronda had not already won by arm bar, these other variables could predict a decision or technical knock out. A and B are definitely not independent.
So maybe, the probability of her opponent winning by a decision, was 60% , if it went to a decision, making a the 3 to 1 odds the bookies were giving on Ronda winning look outrageous, as some sites called it. However, if her odds of losing to Ronda by submission were 80%, then the odds of her opponent actually winning a decision were 12% – 60% of the 20% of the time it went to a decision. Now, I just made up those numbers of 80%, 60% and so on. The point is that you need to consider the probability of Ronda winning by submission is considerably higher than 0% and calculate your probability of her opponent winning given the inverse of that probability.

In case you were wondering, Ronda won the fight in the first round by arm barring her opponent into submission.
Congratulations to Ronda Rousey, 135 lb champion of the world.

[gabe]

nunya just came in his pants.

[Vaughany]

LOL

[Beelzebubzy]

“If events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A and B (the probability that both events occur) is defined by P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).”
On the condition that Ronda had not already won by arm bar, these other variables could predict a decision or technical knock out. A and B are definitely not independent.

That is basic probability

[Vaughany]

yeah I used the term "statistics" loosely

[Beelzebubzy]

This next month in the half is going to suck of boredom.

I am going to message Chandler. He will bring some life here

[Vaughany]

ha yeah. Im off to Cancun for a week tomorrow so will waste a bit of time this month!