Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 08:17 PM

Ronda and Tate weigh-in: Got a bit catty there!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WdwTOy7ZH1M

**gabe** · 03-02-12, 08:36 PM

I need an early KO from Jimmy Te Hunie

**gabe** · 03-02-12, 08:38 PM

that's right, baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 08:44 PM

Made some big errors tonight. Te-Huna Inside and Waldburger were two I was most confident in and bottled them. Should of had Te-Huna in more parlays and at least 15 units on Waldburger

**gabe** · 03-02-12, 08:46 PM

Yeah, I'm beating myself up for not going bigger on a lot of plays. Everything hit so far 'cept Penner.

**Brian891** · 03-02-12, 09:07 PM

quick question: benavidez. is he really a -850 fav? is this a creampuff matchup for him?

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 10:31 PM

Made a load of dollar from live-betting on last two fights so rather than fully arbing out of Alves/Kampmann distance play Im gonna add more to Alves as I dont see Kampmann finishing Alves

11.841 units on Thiago Alves at -125 to win 9.473 units.

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by Brian891

quick question: benavidez. is he really a -850 fav? is this a creampuff matchup for him?

Sorry man, missed this, but yeah he should be tht big a fave!

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:05 PM

ha unbelievable

**v1y** · 03-02-12, 11:18 PM

almost got hurt badly tonight. thankfully benavidez by tko at +600 saved my ass.

**JoshB** · 03-02-12, 11:21 PM

man i had kampminn not winning inside the distance in my parlay, should have just went with him not winning by tko. Thiago you knucklehead

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:33 PM

Basically went from possibility of being up 50 or so units to ending up -2.458 units on the night! In terms of documented plays it was a nightmare...about -52.157 units! Luckily, thanks to Livebetting I got the McGee/Phillipou distance prop in live betting at +200, Mighty Mouse by decision at +125 hedged with McCall by dec at +400, and a bet that I made earlier today that I'd forgot about: Benavidez by TKO/KO at +331 so ended up -2.458 units (sounding like the early Gabe days here!). Still got a couple parlays going so not end of world but all in all quote the shambles! Was looking at Kampmann at +325 mid way through Round 3 and really wanted to play it and arb out of my Alves plays cos I could tell Kampmann was going for broke (even posted it on the event thread) but just couldnt bring myself to do it due to greed and complacency as I was up by a good amount and would of had a huge night had tht gone distance and Alves got the nod as it looked like was gonna happen. Ah well, on to the next one!

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by v1y

almost got hurt badly tonight. thankfully benavidez by tko at +600 saved my ass.

ha yeah, saved me as well but only had it at +331. Without livebetting tonight I'd of been down by about 53 units.

**FightFightFight** · 03-02-12, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Basically went from possibility of being up 50 or so units to ending up -2.458 units on the night! In terms of documented plays it was a nightmare...about -52.157 units! Luckily, thanks to Livebetting I got the McGee/Phillipou distance prop in live betting at +200, Mighty Mouse by decision at +125 hedged with McCall by dec at +400, and a bet that I made earlier today that I'd forgot about: Benavidez by TKO/KO at +331 so ended up -2.458 units (sounding like the early Gabe days here!). Still got a couple parlays going so not end of world but all in all quote the shambles! Was looking at Kampmann at +325 mid way through Round 3 and really wanted to play it and arb out of my Alves plays cos I could tell Kampmann was going for broke (even posted it on the event thread) but just couldnt bring myself to do it due to greed and complacency as I was up by a good amount and would of had a huge night had tht gone distance and Alves got the nod as it looked like was gonna happen. Ah well, on to the next one!

Same. Finger on the trigger as an arb, but he was losing. Just wasnt worth it. Alves, ******* moron.

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Same. Finger on the trigger as an arb, but he was losing. Just wasnt worth it. Alves, ******* moron.

yeah, I'd of probably pulled the trigger had I not been up by 20-30 units from Mighty Mouse decision and Benavidez TKO and just settled for minus couple units or breaking even overall....turns out I ended up losing a couple anyway but as u say wasnt worth it...tht was jus one of those random things tht happens in MMA now and agen

**gabe** · 03-02-12, 11:54 PM

one of those random things better not happen in the semtex or rousey fight, ynawmsayn?

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by gabe

one of those random things better not happen in the semtex or rousey fight, ynawmsayn?

Hopefully we've had our dose of misfortune for this wknd

**GoGoGadget** · 03-02-12, 11:58 PM

Alves is a striker, he is winning and has the guy stunned and backed up against the fence.. time for a takedown! with under a minute left

Thats like a pure grappler winning and in side control deciding to stand and bang it out for the last minute

**Vaughany** · 03-02-12, 11:59 PM

Did a Dan Hardy against Lytle! Except this was even worse as he was probably winning the fight unlike Hardy who was desperate! I think it's a ATT thing, they do seem to like to steal rounds with late takedowns....Tibau does it

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 12:02 AM

Is the McCall fight being turned into a Draw??? I hope my losses get canceled!

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 12:03 AM

Three parlays still alive:

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

1.577 units on Semerzier/Pineda Under 2.5 Rounds (-110), Te-Huna (-325), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 2.884 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

6.306 units on Mighty Mouse/McCall Starts Round 3 (-360), Benavidez/Urushitani Starts Round 2 (-377), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 8.289 units.

Parlay: 6.315 units on Te-Huna Inside Distance (-175), Rousey/Tate to Not Go the Distance (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 7.891 units;

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Is the McCall fight being turned into a Draw??? I hope my losses get canceled!

Doubt it...even if it is most books count the announced result as final result.

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:20 AM

I could get screwed royally here. Had DJ dec 200 at bmaker, Not dj dec 125 at 5dimes. 5Dimes is whatever is said in ring, Bmaker is whatever comission says. Should be a ******* no contest though. Should have been a 4th rd. Fight wasnt over, how can it be a draw?

**Grabaka** · 03-03-12, 12:25 AM

I cant believe this shit....i had 300 on Mccall @ +320. This is Fuuuuucking bullshit the guy cant count or what the hell happened? they robbed us

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 12:35 AM

yeah, mccall woulda won that one... buncha bull.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-03-12, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

I could get screwed royally here. Had DJ dec 200 at bmaker, Not dj dec 125 at 5dimes. 5Dimes is whatever is said in ring, Bmaker is whatever comission says. Should be a ******* no contest though. Should have been a 4th rd. Fight wasnt over, how can it be a draw?

Another reason to be careful with arbs.

The over/under in the Johnson/Thompson fight is another example.

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

I could get screwed royally here. Had DJ dec 200 at bmaker, Not dj dec 125 at 5dimes. 5Dimes is whatever is said in ring, Bmaker is whatever comission says. Should be a ******* no contest though. Should have been a 4th rd. Fight wasnt over, how can it be a draw?

Could lose 4%. Fingers crossed. Not to mention a mcCall decision would have been up 12%. Fuckers.

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Another reason to be careful with arbs.

The over/under in the Johnson/Thompson fight is another example.

Totally, but was worth the risk. Especially since a draw with sudden death is nearly impossible.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-03-12, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Totally, but was worth the risk. Especially since a draw with sudden death is nearly impossible.

Sure, its up to you to calculate what has value to you or not, everyone should just be aware of these situations coming up from time to time. And while it might be worth it to take a 5 cent arb on a straight up outcome, it probably isn't in these touchier situations.

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Sure, its up to you to calculate what has value to you or not, everyone should just be aware of these situations coming up from time to time. And while it might be worth it to take a 5 cent arb on a straight up outcome, it probably isn't in these touchier situations.

Was worth 2% on a DJ win. Definite value. I mean what are the odds of some aussie misreading the cards? Definitely more than if it were in N.A., but still slim.

**FightFightFight** · 03-03-12, 12:56 AM

Finally evens me up for arbing Fedor-Silva completes 2 with wont start rd 3.

**GunShard** · 03-03-12, 02:32 AM

There's a bizzare superstitution that I was keeping track of for the past few years, it's a bizzare reason why Kampman defeated Alves.

12 wins and 3 losses betting if you were to keep betting on this theory for the past 5 years.

I would sound insane and a troll if I made a topic about it, I'm not sure if I should explain it.

It's probably just a coincidence.

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

There's a bizzare superstitution that I was keeping track of for the past few years, it's a bizzare reason why Kampman defeated Alves.

12 wins and 3 losses betting if you were to keep betting on this theory for the past 5 years.

I would sound insane and a troll if I made a topic about it, I'm not sure if I should explain it.

It's probably just a coincidence.

do tell.

**gabe** · 03-03-12, 03:46 AM

I was hoping for some blogs from Dana to show post UFC 144 and pre-UFC on FX 2 shyt... hopefully something will be up in the AM!

**Vaughany** · 03-03-12, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

I could get screwed royally here. Had DJ dec 200 at bmaker, Not dj dec 125 at 5dimes. 5Dimes is whatever is said in ring, Bmaker is whatever comission says. Should be a ******* no contest though. Should have been a 4th rd. Fight wasnt over, how can it be a draw?

bookmaker still have MM decision as a win for me?