Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[stefan084]

true, but i dont know if sanchez or florian could have traded with daley for fun and KOd him either. It is important to be critical to who a fighter beats but equally how he beats them. Diaz is always game, but BJ is on and off , but he always lacks cardio or fade as the fight progress. i dont think of betting on this matchup as it is 50 50, but i think diaz has the advantage after round 1.

yes but Diaz was rocked by Daly and had to cover up for a bit until he cleared his head--BJ is 5 times the counter striker that Daly is and has far greater variety in his boxing than Daly

[bjpenn85]

Im using my self as an example as i dont know in particular how others have been restricted. I cant parlay probets with straight bets.
It is written this bet is not aloud. If i bet straight it is only small sums like maybe 50 dollars. If i was to bet struve sub i can only bet 3- 10 dollars max. I called them for a month ago and asked if the restriction will be permanent or just for a while and they said that they didnt see me playing for a while, if thats permanent or not i dont know. Go paddy go paddy go!

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany - I opened up an account at PaddyPower -- just curious why you like them? They're odds aren't super hot. They do parlays though which is strong.

Although their straight-up odds aren't good - they are in fact one of the worse available, Paddy still used to be the best book for MMA, they released props even earlier than Sportbet/5dimes and offer props on every fight including under-card for UFC. But as BJPenn said they will restrict you as soon as you win more than £100 to £200 on one or a couple plays. And they've either tightened up or just not as interested in offering as many options anymore as recently they have released prop odds late in the week of a fight event and haven't offered props for under-card fights.

[bjpenn85]

do you think they lost money or just didnt earn enough?

[NunyaBidness]

do you think they lost money or just didnt earn enough?

Neither, they just don't want sharp action. Every book does it except pinny and greek.

[ddream1]

Bellator 55 play:


5.731 units on M'Pumbu at -190 to win 3.016 units.

glad to see u one this, i was pondering him in a parlay with vila for a few days and i worried if m'pumbu gets taken down he is in a whole heap of trouble. i realize huge striking advantage but i worry he doesn't have a back up plan.

[TheCalculator]

Neither, they just don't want sharp action. Every book does it except pinny and greek.

Well I know that Betfair take a percentage of your winnings as commission

5Dimes limits action too if you're on a roll? Any evidence of this...

[NunyaBidness]

5Dimes limits action too if you're on a roll? Any evidence of this...

Um yeah, my account. $100 limits everywhere, $50 on reduced juice.

Everywhere limits you except for sites that encourage professional action, which as far as I know is only The Greek and Pinny.

And you don't get limited for being on a roll or winning, you get limited for beating their lines. I have limits at books that I've never cashed out from.

[Vaughany]

Yeah limited to $100 on Sportbet - mainly because of grabbing openers such as the Travis Browne +110 opener against Struve.

[TheCalculator]

Being limited SUCKS.

Anyone read the book "Smart Money"?

They use very interesting strategies to get pass this B.S.

[NinjaDMP]

Glad to see you on M'Pumbu I already put a little down, I'm not all that confident he can fight off the TD's as stated.

[TheCalculator]

Vaughany -- what have you observed as far as when new odds get released?

1. What time of the day is the most normal? Morning? Afternoon? Night?

2. What day of the week do the UFC prelims get released?

3. Which sites are where the odds REALLY originate?

[ghost kid]

The answer to all 3 is "it varies", week to week
Different books, different days, different times
There is no book where all the lines originate

I have seen them released at 6am, noon, 6pm, and midnight
Back in the day, boxing odds were released every Wednesday afternoon
But the times have changed, the internet has changed the way a lot of these books work
And there are several MMA events a week now, so the oddsmakers work harder to get everything on the board

Nobody uses the phone anymore - the majority of wagering is done online
Long story short - you just have to keep on your toes and check often

[Vaughany]

Vaughany -- what have you observed as far as when new odds get released?

1. What time of the day is the most normal? Morning? Afternoon? Night?

2. What day of the week do the UFC prelims get released?

3. Which sites are where the odds REALLY originate?

As Ghost said it varies. Although, the remaining prelims that dont have lines currently available are usually released on a Tuesday evening during the week of the event (at least for PPV events). For Fight Nights, Versus etc... the undercard sometimes isn't released until the Thursday. Sportbet/5dimes, Bookmaker are the main line openers, and sometimes Bodog.

[TheCalculator]

Thanks a lot guys.

I've also noticed that Pinnacle opens the lines sometimes.

[ghost kid]

Thanks a lot guys.

I've also noticed that Pinnacle opens the lines sometimes.

Yes. Occasionally they will. Score Fighting Series in Canada, when Mein fought Zaromskis, Pinn was first.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 137 plays so far:


6.479 units on Cerrone at +135 to win 8.747 units;


6.48 units on Palaszewski at +240 to win 15.552 units;


6.376 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +250 to win 15.95 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Baczynski (-138), Koch (-175), & BJ Penn (-125) to win 9.714 units;


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units.

[Vaughany]

Parlay: 6.47 units on Not Stephens by Sub (-5175), Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 (-305), Not Maynard by Submission (-2165), & GSP (-400) to win 4.983 units.

Reduced payout due to GSP pulling out so made 2.607 units profit from this parlay.

[Vaughany]

Bellator 55 play:


5.731 units on M'Pumbu at -190 to win 3.016 units.

Highly frustrating performance from Tonton. Had at least 3 good opportunities to finish Wiuff and didn't take them. Almost seemed like Wiuff was semi-conscious and was awoken by the the GnP in Rnd 3. For how small and light M'Pumbu is his footwork and mobility is poor. Didn't circle enough and made it too easy for Wiuff

[Ewoi]

I thought Mpumbu moves pretty well based on his past fights. But for some reason he was slow and looked like he kinda gassed, maybe because the fight was outdoors. He also had the chance to let Wiuff up instead of staying in his guard. But he just sat on his knees and let Wiuff grab his legs for the crucial last minute takedown. I'd still favour him over the current 205 roster in a 5 rounder.

-And kudos on getting in Cerrone at +135! That is ridiculous.

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany - I opened up an account at PaddyPower -- just curious why you like them? They're odds aren't super hot. They do parlays though which is strong.

Although their straight-up odds aren't good - they are in fact one of the worse available, Paddy still used to be the best book for MMA, they released props even earlier than Sportbet/5dimes and offer props on every fight including under-card for UFC. But as BJPenn said they will restrict you as soon as you win more than £100 to £200 on one or a couple plays. And they've either tightened up or just not as interested in offering as many options anymore as recently they have released prop odds late in the week of a fight event and haven't offered props for under-card fights.

After saying all that above, Paddy have released some very generous props for BJ/Diaz and Nelson/Cro-Cop this morning. Although pitiful amounts due to limits, I got BJ/Diaz goes distance at +150 and +110, Diaz by Decision at +400, and Cro-Cop/Nelson goes distance at +350 and Nelson by decision at +700. Can still get fight goes distance at +300, Nelson by decision at +550 and Cro-Cop by decision at +900 as I write..

[bogbat]

Diaz by Decision at +400 is incredible. If Diaz does win, this would be by far his most likely route.

[Vitooch]

Diaz by Decision at +400 is incredible. If Diaz does win, this would be by far his most likely route.

Way to catch that awesome line ...5dimes only has it at +188.

I'm betting strong on Penn straight up, and am also adding a small Penn by submission miracle play at +1000. I could picture Penn catching an aggressive Diaz and finishing him submission, something Daley had the opportunity to do but was unable to, but it still unlikely. However, If there was one fighter that could pull something unbelievable like that off, it would be Penn. And at those odds, I'm willing to take a chance.

I'm trying to avoid making so many prop bets, which have hurt me severely in the last two cards. I'm placing a small bet on the dog Roop, and may add a big bet on Cerrone straight up (He's my biggest lock pick of the card). How Vaughny manages to get him at anything better than -150 is beyond me.

Wish there was one more solid lock other than Cerrone that I can add to a parlay. People on this website are making me second guess Nelson over Cro Cop. However, Cro Cop hasn't really done anything in the UFC that should really make me hesitant about picking against him.

I may just include Cerrone in a big straight up bet along with a smaller parlay with Nelson, but once again I may be overdoing it.

[bjpenn85]

cro cop made a lot of good fighters fight less good. I think that is worth noting. He is like a hurt animal. He still fights back, and he can take damage. Still favor nelson, but not at that price..and cerrone is not a lock. To even fighters meet, were one has an advantage, but they are both on the same "level". For gods sake, this is not a lock.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


1.778 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +150 to win 2.667 units;

0.304 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +110 to win 0.334 units;

0.347 units on Diaz by Decision at +400 to win 1.388 units;

0.455 units on Diaz by Decision at +300 to win 1.365 units;


0.39 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +350 to win 1.365 units;

0.455 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.195 units on Nelson by Decision at +700 to win 1.365 units;


1.063 units on Hioki/Roop to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.329 units;

0.585 units on Hioki by Submission at +230 to win 1.345 units.

[Vaughany]

Way to catch that awesome line ...5dimes only has it at +188.

I'm betting strong on Penn straight up, and am also adding a small Penn by submission miracle play at +1000. I could picture Penn catching an aggressive Diaz and finishing him submission, something Daley had the opportunity to do but was unable to, but it still unlikely. However, If there was one fighter that could pull something unbelievable like that off, it would be Penn. And at those odds, I'm willing to take a chance.

I'm trying to avoid making so many prop bets, which have hurt me severely in the last two cards. I'm placing a small bet on the dog Roop, and may add a big bet on Cerrone straight up (He's my biggest lock pick of the card). How Vaughny manages to get him at anything better than -150 is beyond me.

Wish there was one more solid lock other than Cerrone that I can add to a parlay. People on this website are making me second guess Nelson over Cro Cop. However, Cro Cop hasn't really done anything in the UFC that should really make me hesitant about picking against him.

I may just include Cerrone in a big straight up bet along with a smaller parlay with Nelson, but once again I may be overdoing it.

I got the opening line on Sportbet for Cerrone. No way I'd make a play on him straight-up at current odds. Fight could end up being a stand-up battle and go to decision - you're then counting on Cerrone dominating the stand-up enough to get the decision which is risky. Obviously there is a good chance he can get this to the ground and submit Siver, but there is no guarantee that a) Cerrone will look to take this to the mat; or b) that he can even get it to the mat if he wants to.

[TheCalculator]

Thanks a lot for the head's up!

Got quite a few props -- much better value than 5dimes (even if they weren't as good as what you picked them up for). What time zone are you in Vaughany? Must be Europe.

[Vaughany]

Thanks a lot for the head's up!

Got quite a few props -- much better value than 5dimes (even if they weren't as good as what you picked them up for). What time zone are you in Vaughany? Must be Europe.

Yeah London, was about 10.30 am when they came out. Nelson/Cro Cop goes distance is is still +250, Diaz/Penn distance -110. Easy arb opportunities. What are your limits as a new customer? Where u able to put 3 figures on some of these?

[Grabaka]

how much they limit you vaugh? They limit me at one digit on props!

[Vaughany]

how much they limit you vaugh? They limit me at one digit on props!

Yeah as you can see from my plays above it's less than £10 for most...bastards!

[TheCalculator]

Max on props and parlays between 100 and 200 pounds. Maxes on single fight bets close to 1000 pounds.

[Vaughany]

Max on props and parlays between 100 and 200 pounds. Maxes on single fight bets close to 1000 pounds.

Use it wisely! You'll soon be cut to single figures!

[TheCalculator]

SINGLE FIGURE SUCKS!

[bjpenn85]

why do paddy release lines like today?

[TheCalculator]

What's interesting is their lines are fresh (They didn't use other books' lines to start) which was great!