Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

UFC 137 Results:

Summary of UFC 137 plays:


6.479 units on Cerrone at +135 to win 8.747 units;


6.48 units on Palaszewski at +240 to win 15.552 units;

2.451 units on Griffin/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -187.5 to win 1.307 units;


6.376 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +250 to win 15.95 units;

0.39 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +350 to win 1.365 units;

0.455 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.195 units on Nelson by Decision at +700 to win 1.365 units;

0.75 units on Cro-Cop by Decision at +1600 to win 12 units;

0.2 units on Nelson Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 4 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Baczynski (-138), Koch (-175), & BJ Penn (-125) to win 9.714 units;


1.778 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +150 to win 2.667 units;

0.304 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance at +110 to win 0.334 units;

0.347 units on Diaz by Decision at +400 to win 1.388 units;

0.455 units on Diaz by Decision at +300 to win 1.365 units;

0.394 units on Penn/Diaz FOTN at +350 to win 1.379 units;


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units;


Parlay: 15.5 units on Vera (-370), Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-650), & Ben Henderson (-230) to win 17.096 units;


Parlay: 3.106 units on Carmont (+115), Vera (-400), Not Cro-Cop by Submission (-5125), & Not Roop by Submission (-5640) to win 5.555 units;


Parlay: 1.55 units on Not Siver Inside the Distance (-675), Hioki/Roop to Go the Distance (+120), Not Filipovic Inside the Distance (-1160), & Not Diaz in Round 1 (-1425) to win 3.001 units;


Parlay (double): 5 units on Jacoby (Evens) & Vera (-450) to win 7.222 units;

0.675 units on Starks by Decision at +200 to win 1.35 units;


Parlay (Trebles from 4): 0.4 units on Jacoby by TKO/KO (+250), Nijem/Downs to Go the Distance (Evens), Camozzi/Carmont to Go the Distance (-137.5), & Penn/Diaz to Go Over 1.5 Rounds at +187.5 to win 5.553 units;


0.333 units on Hioki by Submission at +1200 to win 3.996 units;

1 unit on Hioki by Submission at +300 to win 3 units;

0.585 units on Hioki by Submission at +230 to win 1.345 units;

0.833 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +600 to win 4.998 units;

1.389 units on Hioki/Roop to End by Submission at +225 to win 3.125 units;

1.063 units on Hioki/Roop to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.329 units;

4.2 units on Nelson (-220) & Not Hioki by Submission (-180) to win 5.292 units (Acts as a semi-hedge to my Hioki by Submission plays);

0.1 units on Roop by Decision at +900 to win 0.9 units;

0.043 units on Roop KO of the Night at +3500 to win 1.505 units;


0.1 units on Mitrione/Kongo to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units;

0.667 units on Mitrione KO of the Night at +750 to win 5.002 units;

Also have a risk-free arb which will net me 5.814 units profit if Mitrione/Kongo goes the distance (+215), or 0.219 units profit if it doesn't go the distance (-175);


0.1 units on Cerrone/Siver to be Quickest Ending Fight of the Night at +1400 to win 1.4 units.


Best of luck all

Adding:


Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units.

Review:


Total stake: 72.541 units

Return: 76.878 units

Profit: +4.337 units (+10.151 units inc' risk-free arb)


And still have the following two parlays pending:


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units.

[BIGDAY]

UFC 137 Results:






Review:


Total stake: 72.541 units

Return: 76.878 units

Profit: +4.337 units (+10.151 units inc' risk-free arb)


And still have the following two parlays pending:


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units.

Green is Money! Nice work as always.

[The HOFF]

That was a great call on Bartimus. He looked sharp.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Pending plays going in to UFC 138:

Parlay: 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 13.958 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Koscheck (-333.33), Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 21.146 units;


Parlay (double): 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), & Mark Munoz (-187.5) to win 9.167 units;


Parlay: 10 units on P.Thiago (-450), Palhares (-275), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 15.556 units.

And just added an arb.... 50 units on Munoz at -200 and 25 units on Munoz at +225 so 6.25 units profit if Leben wins, overall stakes back if Munoz wins. Will mostly likely hedge the remaining 33.75 units (40 units minus the 6.25 from aforementioned arb) that I have on Munoz winning in the above parlays with Leben by TKO/KO or Leben KO of the Night.

[MMAbetMASTA]

yea great call on bart man - much respect. Out of all the upsets I thought might hit, I'll admit I wasn't on bart and I should have been Mirko and siver were my upsets and they obviously did not come through for me and I couldn't have been more wrong with the way I thought those fights would play out. Btw you're friggin stoked you nabbed cerrone at that price, lucky mofo!!! Cheers

[Vaughany]

BJ Penn will be BACK!...

CompuStrike reported that BJ Penn got punched 239 times by Nick Diaz last night, and landed just 76. Unable to see out of a swollen left eye, Penn told UFC broadcaster Joe Rogan that he was done fighting. "I've got a daughter," Penn explained. "I've got another on the way. I don't want to go home looking like this again. I'm done."

However, UFC president Dana White who went on to express doubt about the retirement. "B.J. is a warrior, what happened to him tonight has never happened to him in his entire career," White said, adding "What he's thinking tonight he might not think eight weeks from now."
BJ WILL BE BACK...

"They took B.J. right to the hospital. Who knows. It might be or it might not be (Penn's final fight). That's up to him. I don't know."

It appears that Penn's retirement may have lasted as long as the walk back to the locker room.

Allan Goes, BJ Penn's BJJ coach and cornerman for the Diaz fight, just posted the below gallery on his Facebook profile, with the final image clearly saying that BJ says he will be back.


He last word! I will be back

[Beelzebubzy]

Great Job!

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134: -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units

Total profit: +382.294 units

[TheCalculator]

Check your PM box.

[PunisherIND]

Allan Goes, BJ Penn's BJJ coach and cornerman for the Diaz fight, just posted the below gallery on his Facebook profile, with the final image clearly saying that BJ says he will be back.


He last word! I will be back

I hope it wasnt his final fight. Few fighters bring it the way BJ does. I wouldn't be surprised if it really was his final fight though. Did anyone else notice BJ got a little teary eyed during the walk out before the fight? That wasn't a good sign; as if he was expecting to lose and planning to retire after the fight. Anyway, hope he comes back and drops back down to 155. Fighting at 170 allows him to stay out of shape and that isnt a good recipe for success.

[Vaughany]

I hope it wasnt his final fight. Few fighters bring it the way BJ does. I wouldn't be surprised if it really was his final fight though. Did anyone else notice BJ got a little teary eyed during the walk out before the fight? That wasn't a good sign; as if he was expecting to lose and planning to retire after the fight. Anyway, hope he comes back and drops back down to 155. Fighting at 170 allows him to stay out of shape and that isnt a good recipe for success.

“I want to thank all the fans for their love and support. I have decided to take some time off to enjoy life, train and teach. I will keep the you guys posted with what’s next.” - BJ's latest statement

[Vaughany]

[TheCalculator]

It worries me a bit that he wants to throw bombs with Leben. Hope he fights smart. Go for the win MUNOZ! Leave your ego in the locker room...

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

It worries me a bit that he wants to throw bombs with Leben. Hope he fights smart. Go for the win MUNOZ! Leave your ego in the locker room...

He's said in all of his interviews tht he intends to take Leben down, when he says he's going to throw bombs I think he mainly means through GnP. Munoz is a smart dude and a lot is at stake in this fight - potentially No1 contenders bout. He wont stand for too long

[TheCalculator]

He's said in all of his interviews tht he intends to take Leben down, when he says he's going to throw bombs I think he mainly means through GnP. Munoz is a smart dude and a lot is at stake in this fight - potentially No1 contenders bout. He wont stand for too long

That's what I'm betting on on Saturday.

[Vaughany]

UFC 138 play:


0.1 units on Thiago Alves by Submission at +1000 to win 1 unit.

[Grabaka]

my friend...what can you tell us about vaughan lee?

[Vaughany]

my friend...what can you tell us about vaughan lee?

Big prospect, superb grappling - UK Submission Grappling champ, decent, effective unorthodox striking and pretty strong for his weight-class. He's spent a lot of time in Thailand working on his Muay Thai at Phuket Top Team, spent some time with Roger Huerta who he resembles quite a lot. Also, bare in mind he broke the record for submissions at TUF 14 tryouts... interview here about it featuring Akira who's on the show currently of course. Vaughan actually gave the $400 that Dana White gave him to the guy tht he tapped out 4 times...shows' his class and is indicative of his dedication to the sport. I truly believe he could be the next big thing in UK MMA along with Pickett (who hasnt got the attention he deserves despite being a better fighter than Hardy). Not saying he will beat Cariaso, Cariaso's experience will probably be the difference and Vaughan is very young and making a huge step up. I think he'll lose a close decision but it wont be easy for Cariaso, and will may well end up being most exciting fight on the card.



He's fought some guys that were well out of their depth, such as this "Popeye" fight!...

[Vaughany]

Vaughan's fight with Brad Pickett from 2007...

[Vaughany]

Should say that although Cariaso is rightly the favourite, I do think Vaughan may be worth a play at +150 or better. Waiting for the pinnacle and sportbet lines to come out before I pull the trigger though. I'd love to play Vaughan straight up hedged with Cariaso by decision in perfect world. At the moment I'm looking at playing Young at +300, Vaughan at +150 and Maguire at Evens, and possible Broughton at +115...all underdogs and like the chances of at least 2 coming off

[Vaughany]

UFC 138 play:


3.135 units on Vaughan Lee at +160 to win 5.015 units.


Small play as I think Vaughan should be closer to +125. IMO he has the size and grappling advantage in this one, while Cariaso has a slight striking advantage and a big (and what will perhaps end up being most pertinent in this one) experience advantage.

[Vaughany]

Got a nice arb on Jason Young which I'm pretty happy with. Young at +300 and Omigawa at -245 and -265... 5.528 units profit if Young wins, overall stake back if Omigawa wins.

[Grabaka]

Thanks for that response!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Got a nice arb on Jason Young which I'm pretty happy with. Young at +300 and Omigawa at -245 and -265... 5.528 units profit if Young wins, overall stake back if Omigawa wins.

I got a small play on young too and have him in a few parlays, glad to see you're on this. Got him at +270 tho.

What is your breakdown on barao/pickett?

I think its a pick em and think the odds are right, but like you I have always been impressed with pickett. However, its hard to pick against a guy who has only lost once and has looked damn good for the most part in the footage and fights I've seen of barao - he looks good everywhere - as does pickett. I think brad might be the stronger man though and should have the wrestling advantage, yet wrestling might not be the best play in this one. Brad's hands look quite good, but I think barao has a more diverse stand up arsenal and is fast, its hard to decide who is better where.. I'm having a lot of trouble picturing how this fight goes down, probably best to stay away I'm thinking...

Also what do you think about the maguire / edwards match, if you don't mind giving some input on that one??

[more_betterness]

I was just about to ask the same thing. Although the wrestling is what im interested in at this point as I think whoever gets the worst of it on the feet will probably look to take the fight to the ground. Pickett showed decent TDD defending a few shots from Jorgensen and showed some offensive wrestling in his other fights. Im not really sure about Barao's wrestling because I havent really seen his TDD tested and taking down cole escovedo doesnt really impress me all that much lol.

[FightFightFight]

Like to add a couple thoughts.
No one turns a kick into a takedown like Pickett. Barao throws lots of them. Its almost enough on its own to warrant a play on Pickett for me.
Also, Brazilians with good takedowns and top control compile great records in Brazil, then when they fight here, not so much.

[more_betterness]

Also, Brazilians with good takedowns and top control compile great records in Brazil, then when they fight here, not so much.

Great point. I recently had a conversation with a Brazilian training partner of mine who has only been stateside for about two years about wrestling, and he says that the only takedowns that are trained in most BJJ academies down there are an occasional judo throw, and that it was rare that they ever went live starting neutral instead of on the knees. He claims its because every decent Brazilian BJJ guy thinks that they will just tap a strong wrestler if they get taken down, so they neglect to train much wrestling. Obviously wrestling is not as common there as it is in other countries, so this attitude makes sense, but it definitely makes it difficult to stop a guy who has been wrestling since he was four and then picked up sub defense from grinding out a decision on you.

[ReBEL`LiON]

Tryna keep a low profile on this fight til I gather some funds but patricky opened as a dog against batman..

I hope the line doesn't move I wanna lay some good money on this..

Lmk if u agree

[Vaughany]

Tryna keep a low profile on this fight til I gather some funds but patricky opened as a dog against batman..

I hope the line doesn't move I wanna lay some good money on this..

Lmk if u agree

Yeah I wouldnt feel comfortable playing Pellegrino in this one. Probably be a no-play for me as too many unknowns about Pellegrino - is he now motivated and more importantly injury free after the break - or is he coming back because the money was too good to resist? If I had to play I'd play Freire at +150 or better.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

[TheCalculator]

Is this a joke video? Cause it's funny...