Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Will be putting Vera in parlays up to -300. Good enough wrestling to keep it standing, superior stand-up.

[proposition joe]

is everyone here on Vera?

I have lost big on Vera in the past. But this might be a matchup that the UFC is giving him to turn things around.

I'm staying away from Vera. Too many ???'s. I like Scotty and Stripper Ramsey in the prelims if the lines are acceptable

[GunShard]

I'm not trolling Vaughany. You just didn't understand my statement.

I was saying that fighters like Roy Nelson and Tim Boetch are fighters that would perform best at middleweight than at heavyweight. I never said Roy Nelson is a middleweight.
I'm making a hypothesis that Nelson would a better fight at middleweight if he decides to move down if he loses this fight.
And that Cro Cop has a better chance of defeating Nelson while both fighters are at heavyweight than both fighters were to be at middleweight.

[Vaughany]

UFC 139 play:


44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units.


Have the option of arbing out of this with Lawlor at +333 on William Hill.

[FlashinLeather]

Will be putting Vera in parlays up to -300. Good enough wrestling to keep it standing, superior stand-up.

No matter who he is fighting, a bet on vera is a scary one to make...

[BIGDAY]

UFC 139 play:


44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units.


Have the option of arbing out of this with Lawlor at +333 on William Hill.

He should absolutly walk through T Lawlor.

[Vaughany]

No matter who he is fighting, a bet on vera is a scary one to make...

I know you're not going to be alone in thinking that, but I don't necessarily think it's true. He outclassed Soszynski for three rounds, beat Couture IMO, got destroyed by Bones who he underestimated big time (but who hasn't been outclassed by Jones), and got dominated by a roided-up Thiago Silva who was just too strong and violent for him.

For me Marshall is as close to a perfect style match-up as Vera could get. Marshall is not the type of fighter that is going to be relentless and aggressive with striking or takedowns (unlike Thiago, Jones, Sos and Couture who all constantly pushed forward looking for takedowns), nor is he going to be the type of fighter that is going to mentally break Vera which many claim is one of Vera's weaknesses. Marshall's lack of aggression is evident in all three of his fights that have gone the distance in the UFC (against Magalhaes, Brilz, & The Janitor) which have been slow plodding affairs and if you watch these fights again you can clearly hear boos from the crowd in every singe fight due to the lack of action. Marshall has mainly been matched up with wrestlers or at least grapplers with limited stand-up and shown that he can deal with them reasonably well (although he clearly lost the fight to Magalhaes IMO). However, his first fight against a half-decent striker in Luiz Cane ended quickly, although granted he was a late replacement, but late replacement or not it shouldn't effect your stand-up defense. Even if Marshall does drastically change from previous fights and come out guns blazing attempting takedowns, I find it hard to imagine him getting Vera to the ground or getting close to keeping him there.

[v1y]

UFC 139 play: 44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units. Have the option of arbing out of this with Lawlor at +333 on William Hill.

I beg of you, take the arb.

Weidman is one of the most overrated fighters in all of MMA right now.

Lawlor looked solid against aaron simpson, and arguably got robbed. Would you really take Weidman over Simpson at -280?

[Vaughany]

I beg of you, take the arb.

Weidman is one of the most overrated fighters in all of MMA right now.

Lawlor looked solid against aaron simpson, and arguably got robbed. Would you really take Weidman over Simpson at -280?

No you're right, I'll 95% likely play Lawlor at +333 or hopefully better by fight time. Lawlor's wrestling may be good enough to keep it standing and if majority of fight stays standing it's a lot closer then the odds suggest, that's for sure!

[Vaughany]

[johnmillions]

Vaugh been waiting for you to say something on Ben Henderson's next fight

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay (double): 6.376 units on Penn/Diaz to Go the Distance (-195), & Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance (-210) to win 7.863 units;


6.376 units on Nelson/Cro-Cop to Go the Distance at +250 to win 15.95 units.

[Vaughany]

Vaugh been waiting for you to say something on Ben Henderson's next fight

I'm a big fan of Henderson's style and never been that impressed with Guida. After the Bocek win and Miller domination I think Henderson is rightly the -210 to -235 favourite, although I was hoping and expecting him to come out at closer to -175 to -200 range but I guess the Miller domination has left a big mark as I'm quite confident Jim Miller would beat Guida comfortably. In terms of how they match up, I believe Henderson is equal if not better in every area - wrestling, BJJ, striking, cardio, experience against high-level competition, size and strength. Also if you look at his previous opponents - Pettis, Florian, Sanchez, Danzig, Gugerty, Dos Anjos, Nate Diaz, Huerta, Marcus Aurelio, and Tyson Griffin - none of these presented the size/strength and wrestling issues that Guida is going to have to deal with in Ben Henderson. Meanwhile, on the other hand Henderson has proved against the likes of Roller, Varner, and most recently Miller that he can beat decent wrestlers emphatically. It would be silly to say that Guida won't be able to take Henderson down, but if he does he's going to be putting himself at risk of getting caught in Henderson's dangerous guillotine and with Henderson's tree-trunk legs and spring I doubt Guida will be able to keep Henderson there.

I've just added the fight to go distance to a parlay with Penn/Diaz going the distance as I think -210 is decent value. If Henderson gets better than -200 I will probably add him straight up in a double with Vera (when his odds are out) or something. If not I will probably play Henderson by decision. The one thing I'm most certain about is that Guida won't finish Henderson, so that does present some options to play around with.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units.

[Vaughany]

Holla at your boy... @acvaughan87

[Vaughany]

Pending parlays going into UFC 137 & UFC 138:


Parlay: 6.427 units on Simpson/Schafer to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-165), Dawson by Decision (+118), & GSP (-400) to win 21.701 units;

Have the Dawson by Decision leg of the above parlay going down tonight. Have hedged with an arb - Hopkins at +125 and Dawson at -110 so will make just over 6 units profit if Hopkins wins which will almost cover the above parlay stake. So as long as Dawson doesn't win inside the distance I'm good.

Also got an arb on Ruiz/Arce with Ruiz at -120 and Arce at +187.5 - 8.1 units profit if Ruiz wins, 6.1 units if Arce wins. And a sh*t load of arbs on the Cleverly/Bellew fight - will make at least 19.5 units profit as long as fight doesn't end in a draw!

[reformed]

vaughny what you think of bryan rodgers +290 against Alexander Shlemenko for bellator 54?

[Vaughany]

vaughny what you think of bryan rodgers +290 against Alexander Shlemenko for bellator 54?

Havn't seen much footage of Rodgers too be honest so wouldn't like to comment...he might be worth a small play at +300 or better as I dont think the gap between them is that great. Been concentrating on boxing this week and making sure I recoup my losses from last UFC so giving Bellator and M1 Global a miss!

[Das Jax]

Vaughany, when you find these arb plays, are you working off any sort of spreadsheet/system, or are you purely eyeballing it?

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, when you find these arb plays, are you working off any sort of spreadsheet/system, or are you purely eyeballing it?

Just constantly checking sportbet and oddschecker.com every few hours throughout the day!

[Das Jax]

Impressive! So then the next question is do you really have ten different sport book accounts!?!?!

[Vaughany]

Impressive! So then the next question is do you really have ten different sport book accounts!?!?!

At least 10!

[TheCalculator]

Adding:


20.394 units on Henderson/Guida to Go the Distance at -210 to win 9.711 units.

That was a good buy -- where did you get that one?

At 5 dimes -- that's already at -270.

[Vaughany]

That was a good buy -- where did you get that one?

At 5 dimes -- that's already at -270.

Yeah it was at -270 on 5dimes/Sportbet then went down to -210 for a few hours so grabbed it and then it went straight back up

[Vaughany]

Hathaway has pulled out of the Brown fight at 138. Was looking forward to getting the Immortal at a generous line.

[GunShard]

Vaughany, what do you think about the Cung Le vs Wanderlei Silva fight at UFC 139?

I personally believe that Cung Le will win this fight.

Maybe it's too early to ask you this question since this fight is too far ahead.

[Vaughany]

Latest Mitrione/McCorkle minute on Helwani's show from a couple weeks ago... funny shiiit!... http://www.mmafighting.com/fighter/m...e/1163/videos/

[illmatick]

Hathaway has pulled out of the Brown fight at 138. Was looking forward to getting the Immortal at a generous line.

Brutal, I had just finished my write-up for that fight. Was expecting a juicy number on Brown as well.

[MMAbetMASTA]

UFC 139 play:


44.408 units on Weidman at -280 to win 15.86 units.


Have the option of arbing out of this with Lawlor at +333 on William Hill.

nice, glad to see you're on this... weird tho, I have been watching his line and never got him at -280, I got him at -320. Perhaps I missed it... I have a couple str8s on him and also have weidman in a few multi-event parlays.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I beg of you, take the arb.

Weidman is one of the most overrated fighters in all of MMA right now.

Lawlor looked solid against aaron simpson, and arguably got robbed. Would you really take Weidman over Simpson at -280?

I'll be making a back up play, but I'm surprised you think he's overrated - I couldn't disagree more. At anything under -350 weidman is a steal against lawlor.

Its not too common (actually, don't know if its happened much at all if ever) for a stand out two time All american D1 wrestler to go to the ADCC and place (let alone almost beat galvao, arguably the best pure sub grappler at that weight) - that is scary. Combined with solid stand up fundamentals (stand up that I think will evolve A LOT over the next couple years), this kid has all the promise of being a champion in the mw division in the next 2-3 years. There is no doubt in my mind that he is probably already the best grappler the ufc has at mw. With some striking growth, the kid will be a stylistic nightmare for most. My only concern is he seems to be a bit small at mw, but I'm sure he might put on a bit of muscle in the next year or two. If he loses to lawlor I will be surprised and sick to my stomach, obviously.

Lawlor is well rounded and tough, but narrowly beating a gassed out atrain (yes I thought lawlor was robbed) is not going to keep me from betting on a guy who will outclass lawlor everywhere this fight goes.

[proposition joe]

Hathaway has pulled out of the Brown fight at 138. Was looking forward to getting the Immortal at a generous line.

Brown's now fighting Seth Baczynkski at 139. I'm thinking Brown gets the L here. But I liked him against Hathaway.

[Vaughany]

nice, glad to see you're on this... weird tho, I have been watching his line and never got him at -280, I got him at -320. Perhaps I missed it... I have a couple str8s on him and also have weidman in a few multi-event parlays.

Yeah it went down to -280 on Sportbet for a couple hours, not sure if it went down to -280 on 5dimes tho. I maxed out on it and then it went back up to -320.

[Vaughany]

Brutal, I had just finished my write-up for that fight. Was expecting a juicy number on Brown as well.

yeah sucks ass... Brown's always been one of the fights I admired most so was looking forward to seeing him live.

[Vaughany]

GSP out of 137 with injury

[ghost kid]

GSP out of 137 with injury

NO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Son of a bitch.

At least Dana is tweeting that Condit will still get the chance. The UFC will wait and re-book it. Carlos deserves this shot.