Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

congrats sir on a +$ week and i love the prospects u have going. u are one mad mma wagering genius

Cheers bro

[Vaughany]

Rashad Evans' webchat goes live too early!...

http://www.cagepotato.com/wtf-of-the-day-upstream%E2%80%99s-web-chat-with-rashad-evans-goes-live-too-early/

[Vitooch]

Hey Vaughny how do you like these possible bets and props...

Aldo inside the distance at -160, Stephens by KO at +575, Guillard wins by KO at -150, Aldo wins by submission at +1142, Stann wins inside the distance at +329, and Frankie Edgar wins in 5th round at +5000 and Sonnen wins in third round at +1950 for shits and giggles.

[BIGDAY]

Hey Vaughny how do you like these possible bets and props...

Aldo inside the distance at -160, Stephens by KO at +575, Guillard wins by KO at -150, Aldo wins by submission at +1142, Stann wins inside the distance at +329, and Frankie Edgar wins in 5th round at +5000 and Sonnen wins in third round at +1950 for shits and giggles.

For sh!ts n giggles, it all looks good. Anything can happen in this wonderful sport.

[Vitooch]

I'm really liking this parlay also : Risking 20$ to win 32$

Florian/Aldo won't start round 5
Lauzon/Guillard won't start round 3
A. Pettis won't win by submission

[rocky mattioli]

it`s almost painful waiting for the undercard lines for this card to show.....

[Vaughany]

it`s almost painful waiting for the undercard lines for this card to show.....

ha yeah tell me about it! I gave up in end as it was late over here, fortunately doesn't look like there were any opening lines that I'd of pounced on anyway

[Grabaka]

no mexicutioner for you vaugh?

[Vaughany]

no mexicutioner for you vaugh?

Nooo, I think Miocic will win. Never been that impressed with Beltran

[Grabaka]

Alright, TY

[Vaughany]

UFC 136 plays and parlays so far:



Parlay (double): 10 units on [COLOR="rgb(46, 139, 87)"]Anthony Johnson (-150)[/COLOR] & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units;


Parlay: 4.847 units on Boetsch/Ring distance (-140), Not Gomi by Sub (-1854), & Not Maynard inside distance (-1117) to win 4.694 units;


Parlay: 3.225 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Aldo/Florian Starts Rnd 2 (-345), & Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.617 units;


Parlay: 0.647 units on Florian/Aldo Starts Round 2 (-302), & Guillard by Decision (+509) to win 4.598 units;



Parlay: 6.47 units on Not Stephens by Sub (-5175), Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 (-305), Not Maynard by Submission (-2165), & GSP (-400) to win 4.983 units;



1.293 units on Not Pettis by TKO/KO (-1142), Guillard/Lauzon Starts Round 2 (-222), Stann/Sonnen Starts Round 2 (-570), Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 (-306), Maynard/Edgar Starts Round 2 (-1225), & GSP (-400) to win 3.008 units;



0.97 units on Lauzon by Submission at +645 to win 6.255 units;


Parlay: 3.23 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Florian/Aldo Starts Round 2 at (-345), Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.634 units.


Parlay: 0.641 units on Wiman by Decision (+157), [COLOR="rgb(46, 139, 87)"]Mighty Mouse/Cruz to Go the Distance (-210)[/COLOR], Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297), Maynard by Decision (+198), & Not Dos Santos by Decision (-887) to win 8.043 units.

[rocky mattioli]

damn those cancellations!...i figured we`d lose value on phan...and we did....looks like parlay fodder now....

i`m not using aldo,because contrary to popular opinion, i think that this is a dangerous fight for aldo....i`m pretty much over extended using sonnen in pars...already using guillard(with a lauzon via sub hedge).... maia scares me.....

so i`m thinking pettis or simpson....simpson scares me because i think his stamina has been ??? in some fights....and schafer is a very big guy...he`s been in with brilz and bader....

i`m wondering how much of a concern schafer`s size advantage is in this bout...he has a 3" height advantage here....and is probably just plain overall bigger...

[scofflaw]

I'm really liking this parlay also : Risking 20$ to win 32$ Florian/Aldo won't start round 5 Lauzon/Guillard won't start round 3 A. Pettis won't win by submission

Losing parlay imo. Lauzon/Guillard won't start 3rd isn't bad but I don't like the others. I think Pettis is winning his fight and it's likely that he could try to take the fight to the ground to neutralize his oppontent's strength. I was very impressed how well he chained sub attempts versus Guida, while Guida was doing everything he could to avoid a fight. Not Pettis by sub is too risky and I'd sooner take Not Stephens by Decision for the gimme @ -800.

Aldo/Florian not going 5 isn't unlikely, but the price is terrible. I like Aldo straight better than that for roughly the same price.

[BIGDAY]

Losing parlay imo. Lauzon/Guillard won't start 3rd isn't bad but I don't like the others. I think Pettis is winning his fight and it's likely that he could try to take the fight to the ground to neutralize his oppontent's strength. I was very impressed how well he chained sub attempts versus Guida, while Guida was doing everything he could to avoid a fight. Not Pettis by sub is too risky and I'd sooner take Not Stephens by Decision for the gimme @ -800.

Aldo/Florian not going 5 isn't unlikely, but the price is terrible. I like Aldo straight better than that for roughly the same price.

Agreed and call me crazy, but Aldo/Florian can see the dist imo.

[sag3000]

What do you think about the Elkins vs Zhang matchup? I like Elkins at current odds

[bjpenn85]

i believe this matchup will go to decision as well. If hominick can, why the hell cant florian?

[Hannibal]

Florian can go the distance. But he doesn't have the striking defense hominick has. Aldo probably won't gas like before, and he likely won't take kenny down where it will be easier to guard from finishing strikes.
But I love the play that bigday suggested and I'm praying that kenny will run and dance around like a scared chicken for at least a rd or two

[Vitooch]

I think you guys are giving Florian the credit he deserves, considering how formidable a fighter he is, but I think you're underestimating Aldo.

Let's make no mistake of this, Aldo is a finisher. In the two fights that did go to decision, Aldo came very close to finishing (he rocked Hominick a few times but was gassed, and Faber was fighting on one leg). I just think Aldo will be too explosive and quick for Florian. Florian's standup is good but certainly not as good as Aldo's and Aldo has proven to have some underrated wrestling.

Aldo will punish Florian standing early and I expect a finish. Unless he gases of course.

[scofflaw]

I'm with you on Aldo. I know this is a fight and anything can happen, but I fully expect Aldo to run through Florian. KF had trouble getting Nunes's timing down and that could be critical versus Aldo. Still the big unknown is how Aldo's weight cut goes. I saw the video of him cutting for 129 and it explains a lot about why he gassed. For that reason, I'd rather take Aldo straight up than excluding the possibly of it going the distance.

[rocky mattioli]

aldo`s very very good...but i don`t think he`s the jon jones of the featherweight division.....i think he might have stamina issues......he was gone at the end of the homonick fight....of course,there will be the obligatory,"he was sick,he was injured" crap we hear every time a star struggles.....

but there are other inications that aldo has difficulty late in hard fights...

""
Aldo rebounded in his next fight against the then-undefeated Thiago "Minu" Meller at Gold Fighters Championship I on May 20, 2006, winning a majority decision in a very close fight. Round one could have gone either way, with Aldo getting two takedowns (both times getting into half-guard) and cutting Meller's right eyebrow with a left hand; while Meller went for two armbars, nearly hyper-extending Aldo's right arm in the first attempt before Aldo was able to escape. Aldo won a lackluster round two, again taking Meller down and landing some hammerfists. A seemingly exhausted Aldo stalled against the ropes much of the third round, holding Meller in the clinch. Both landed some solid strikes in the few exchanges there were in the round.[9][10][11]""


i understand it was 2006...but he hasn`t had many long, hard fights....he`s very lucky that there wasn`t one more round left vs hominick...

florian has three inches on him and if he gasses late against florian,he might have to worry about another rear naked......

if florian makes the cut without a ton of difficulty here,i think he`s dangerous....particularly on the ground...florian`s smart....he`ll try and take this fight where it benefits him most...

i know..i`m crazy....i don`t think it`s a walkover...

[Vitooch]

I'm not saying Aldo by decision or Florian winning isn't a possibility. But at -109, Aldo finishing inside the distance is wonderful value IMO. For a guy that finishes so often, this line should be much higher IMO.

I think linesmakers and fans alike are underestimating Aldo and his ability to finish after the Hominick fight. Aldo hasn't had a history of gassing so early and severely, so we should credit that stomach virus to his gassing, for now.

Just in case Aldo does gas, I'm playing a small Florian by decision hedge, but most of my money on this fight has been put down on Aldo.

[Giblets]

Damnit Rocky, you've convinced me to arb out of my Aldo bet. And by arb out I mean about .1 units of profit (rounding up) haha.

[Vaughany]

UFC 136 plays and parlays so far:



Parlay (double): 10 units on Anthony Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units;


Parlay: 4.847 units on Boetsch/Ring distance (-140), Not Gomi by Sub (-1854), & Not Maynard inside distance (-1117) to win 4.694 units;


Parlay: 3.225 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Aldo/Florian Starts Rnd 2 (-345), & Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.617 units;


Parlay: 0.647 units on Florian/Aldo Starts Round 2 (-302), & Guillard by Decision (+509) to win 4.598 units;



Parlay: 6.47 units on Not Stephens by Sub (-5175), Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 (-305), Not Maynard by Submission (-2165), & GSP (-400) to win 4.983 units;



1.293 units on Not Pettis by TKO/KO (-1142), Guillard/Lauzon Starts Round 2 (-222), Stann/Sonnen Starts Round 2 (-570), Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 (-306), Maynard/Edgar Starts Round 2 (-1225), & GSP (-400) to win 3.008 units;


Parlay: 3.23 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Florian/Aldo Starts Round 2 at (-345), Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.634 units.


Parlay: 0.641 units on Wiman by Decision (+157), Mighty Mouse/Cruz to Go the Distance (-210), Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297), Maynard by Decision (+198), & Not Dos Santos by Decision (-887) to win 8.043 units;


0.97 units on Lauzon by Submission at +645 to win 6.255 units.

[/B]

Also got:


2.5 units on Jeremy Stephens at +252 to win 6.3 units.

[scofflaw]

I was surprised to Not Maynard inside distance (-1117) in your parlay at those odds V. What was the reason for that? I put a little on Maynard T/KO +650 to juice the straight up play. I hope I'm not way off here.

[1nce]

I'm glad to see you're on Stephens aswell Vaugh, I definetly smell some value on this play. So far I've got Stephens and Maynard.

[Vaughany]

I was surprised to Not Maynard inside distance (-1117) in your parlay at those odds V. What was the reason for that? I put a little on Maynard T/KO +650 to juice the straight up play. I hope I'm not way off here.

Now that Edgar is fully aware of Maynard's power and striking ability (which I think both he and many fans underrated) he is going to be more elusive than ever, and I think Maynard is going to be smarter and look to beat-up Edgar through dirty boxing, body shots and GnP rather than looking for the one-punch finish. Also, I will be making a small play on Maynard KO of the Night and Edgar Sub of the Night. With it being main event and everybody expecting it to go distance if Edgar subs Maynard he would get Sub of the Night for sure and if Maynard does KO Edgar he'd probably get KO of the Night. And you'll be able to get each at +1200 or better

I'm glad to see you're on Stephens aswell Vaugh, I definetly smell some value on this play. So far I've got Stephens and Maynard.

Yeah I think Pettis should be closer to -200 range. Hopefully Stephens has improved his footwork, has been his issue in past, but partly because he looks for power over combinations so plants his feet. Against somebody who moves a lot like Pettis it could turn out to be a frustrating night for Stephens

[sirchadwick1]

Good thinking Vaughany. I like the Maynard KOTN play. I'm pretty big on Aldo straight up so as a hedge to that I added Kenny via TKO at +1750 which has great value considering Kenny is known for his elbows and 'finishing' fights. All he has to do is open up a major cut from guard and who knows... I like the play/price as insurance.

[BIGDAY]

Good thinking Vaughany. I like the Maynard KOTN play. I'm pretty big on Aldo straight up so as a hedge to that I added Kenny via TKO at +1750 which has great value considering Kenny is known for his elbows and 'finishing' fights. All he has to do is open up a major cut from guard and who knows... I like the play/price as insurance.

You can get that at +2825 at 5d

[sirchadwick1]

Wow! I actually got it at 5dimes 3 days ago so its gone way up.... niiice.

[Vaughany]

You can get that at +2825 at 5d

What Florian by TKO? or Maynard KO of the Night? Im seeing FLorian TKO at +1440 on sportbet

[sirchadwick1]

Yeah just double checked. Florian tko has gone down. I was about to put more on it.... had me excited.

[BIGDAY]

What Florian by TKO? or Maynard KO of the Night? Im seeing FLorian TKO at +1440 on sportbet

Florian by KO/TKO

[BIGDAY]

Wow! I actually put a tiny wager at the +2825. Crazy!!

[BIGDAY]

These prop bets are volatile. Lol

[Vaughany]

Adding:


6.875 units on Guillard (-300), & Aldo (-275) to win 5.625 units.