Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[bjpenn85]

eye opener for me thanks for the info. I would have played differently if i knew this before..or at least taken that into consideration.

[Vaughany]

Sick of 'stupid mistakes,' Stefan Struve promises better strategy at UFC on Versus 6
by Steven Marrocco on Sep 28, 2011 at 12:10 pm ET
Admittedly, Stefan Struve hasn't used his towering stature to its fullest potential.

The 6-foot-11 heavyweight on multiple occasions has been knocked out by men several times shorter. Most recently it was the 6-foot-7 Travis Browne, but not too long ago, it was the 6-foot Roy Nelson.

Struve couldn't have any more of a height and reach advantage than in his next fight. On Saturday, he takes on Pat Barry (6-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC), who's a full foot shorter. The two are in different weather systems.

So when Struve (21-5 MMA, 5-3 UFC) gets into the cage, he's determined to actually use the physical gifts he's been given to win the fight. The pair meets in the co-main event of UFC on Versus 6, which takes place at Washington, D.C.'s Verizon Center. The main card airs live on Versus.

Four months ago at UFC 130, Browne plucked Struve out of the air as he was attempting a flying knee. It wasn't that Struve didn't know what he was doing. He trained with some of the top striking coaches in Holland, and he still does. But the move was risky and exposed him to counters, and he paid the price.

"I made a stupid mistake coming in with a strike when he was coming in with that punch," Struve said.

If anything, Struve has learned to be a bit more conservative with his attack. If you've seen his earlier fights, the move he tried against Browne wasn't exactly novel in that it had just as much chance of getting him hurt as it did putting him in a good position. He's put himself in positions that allowed his opponents to do damage him as he worked to finish a fight.

Look no further than his meeting at UFC 99 with Denis Stojnic for evidence. After being taken down in the first, Stojnic threw a series of hard hammerfists that opened a massive cut on Struve's forehead that caused bleeding on a horror-movie scale. Many doctors might have stopped the fight, but somehow, Struve survived and managed to latch on a second-round submission that won the day.

Was it necessary, though?

It's not great for longevity when you take three to give one, so Struve is working on staying away from his opponent's threats.

'We've been working on that with new coaches, too, and I improved a lot," he said. "I'm always working on getting better with that and getting on the outside and using my reach the way I should. I'm really starting to pick up, so I plan to show it on Saturday."

This could, of course, lead to a less exciting fight.

"We might cancel each other out," Barry said. "We might stand there and take a long time for this fight to get finished."

But as long as he gets the victory, Struve is happy. He has, after all, lost to three standouts in the heavyweight division. If he can't beat Barry, he has little chance of climbing the ladder again and winning the title shot he so badly wants.

So he's being smart. And smart guys have long careers.

[MMAbetMASTA]

With you on this one...

Brenneman generally relies on flurries of punches to get inside and set up his takedowns, something I don't think he will be able to do very well with Rumble's reach and long jab. I can't discredit the guys tenacity though, watching him swinging for the fences after getting rocked multiple times by Hendricks sold me as a fan.

I'd take Rumble up until around -210... Now I just gotta wait for 5dimes to put the line out

If rumble had shown weak cardio in the hardy fight I would be against a play on him over charlie, for the reason you stated above regarding his tenacity. The guy has an intense pace and has some solid top control, a very griding, wearing style... Rumble is bigger than story, but story is a big ww and brenneman got him down multiple times. However, I think rumble will keep it upright especially if he has the solid cardio he displayed against hardy, which did impress even tho a boring fight. I've read from a few sources now that his weight cutting has been refined and he has it down to a science.. If he can stuff and not gas after the first (assuming he doesn't KO charlie by then), I like him to take a decision via superior stand up and good tdd ie. sprawl in brawl son!!! Juice is too pricey for me on this one though, but I think its a solid play for those willing to gamble. I'm just always scared to bet against a grinder like charlie I guess, but those odds aren't too bad for anthony, I expected -250 or higher... Good luck to you all backing Rumble in this one!!

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Joe Rogan podcast with Mayhem Miller.. http://vimeo.com/29764236

[Chairib]

kllml/,;/../

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay (double): 1.602 units on Mighty Mouse by Decision (+752) & Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297) to win 13.101 units;


Parlay: 0.641 units on Wiman by Decision (+157), Mighty Mouse/Cruz to Go the Distance (-210), Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297), Maynard by Decision (+198), & Not Dos Santos by Decision (-887) to win 8.043 units.

[Vaughany]

UFC Versus 6 Play:


10 units on Rumble Johnson at -183 to win 5.464 units.

Adding:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Rumble Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units.

Just put another 100 units on Rumble at -150. Expect to get Brenneman at +175 or better by fight time

Hedged the above plays with 63.5 units on Brenneman at +187.5 to win 119.063 units. Will make 20.853 units profit if Rumble wins and Guillard wins. I'm counting on either Rumble winning straight-up or Brenneman by decision as I have 6.382 units on fight to go distance at evens as another slight back-up in case Brenneman does win by decision. So only way I lose money is if Brenneman wins inside distance, or if Rumble wins then Guillard loses next week (but will cross that bridge when I come to it!).

6.382 units on Rumble/Brenneman to Go the Distance at Evens to win 6.382 units;

[poopoo333]

Any thoughts about cage warriors this weekend?

[Chong Wizard]

Hey Vaughany what do you think of the Paul Sass vs. Michael Johnson fight? I don't know much about Paul Sass but looking at his record he is 11-0 and has submitted 10 out of 11 of his opponents. 4 out of 5 of Johnson's loses came via submission. I figured you might know more about Paul Sass since he's from the UK. Do you think he has a shot against Johnson?

[sideloaded]

Any thoughts about cage warriors this weekend?

Im sure mma_scientist can break it down for you.

[Vaughany]

Any thoughts about cage warriors this weekend?

I think most the lines r set right, if made any play it woud be on wheeler again as underdog. If foster was facing anyone half decent I'd bet against him as he's goin thru personal problems at moment, but his opponent mason sucks big time!

[DDT]

Can you post a recap of your picks?

[Vaughany]

Adding:


0.562 units on Struve by Submission to win 2.81 units.

[Vaughany]

Struve at +500 that is

[Pete0]

would like a recap for tonites plays as well

[Vaughany]

I've arbed out of my Rumble play so not many plays for this card really. My only plays are the ones above on this page, Cruz who's in 3 parlays, Struve/Barry to go distance and Struve by sub, and Rumble/Brenneman go distance at Evens. Im out at freshers week at a uni all wknd gettin fuuucked so not on here much till Monday. GL tonight all

[Vaughany]

Adding:


3.207 units on Cruz/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +200 to win 6.415 units;


0.641 units on Barry/Struve FOTN at +700 to win 4.49 units.

[Vaughany]

Not a big fan of the guy but to be fair this is pretty funny!...

[illmatick]

[bjpenn85]

Hah! It really looks like he believes he is offline.

[Vaughany]

Review of UFC Versus 6 Plays:

UFC Versus 6 Play:


10 units on Rumble Johnson at -183 to win 5.464 units.

Adding:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Rumble Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units.

Just put another 100 units on Rumble at -150. Expect to get Brenneman at +175 or better by fight time

Adding:


6.382 units on Rumble/Brenneman to Go the Distance at Evens to win 6.382 units;

Hedged the above plays with 63.5 units on Brenneman at +187.5 to win 119.063 units;


1.596 units on Barry/Struve to Go the Distance at +240 to win 3.829 units.


Parlay: 6.121 units on Not Schaub by Submission (-13725), Travis Browne (-190), Not Rampage Jackson by Decision (-3870), & Cruz (-390) to win 6.008 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 13.958 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Koscheck (-333.33), Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 21.146 units;


Parlay (double): 1.602 units on Mighty Mouse by Decision (+752) & Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297) to win 13.101 units;


Parlay: 0.641 units on Wiman by Decision (+157), Mighty Mouse/Cruz to Go the Distance (-210), Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297), Maynard by Decision (+198), & Not Dos Santos by Decision (-887) to win 8.043 units;


0.562 units on Struve by Submission at +500 to win 2.81 units;


3.207 units on Cruz/Mighty Mouse FOTN at +200 to win 6.415 units;


0.641 units on Barry/Struve FOTN at +700 to win 4.49 units.

Results:


Total stake: 193.611 units

Return: 197.632 units

Profit: +4.021 units


Still have some big parlays pending thanks to Rumble and Cruz getting the wins:


Parlay (double): 10 units on Anthony Johnson (-150) & Guillard (-300) to win 12.222 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 13.958 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Koscheck (-333.33), Jon Jones (-400), Cruz (-400), & Munoz (-187.5) to win 21.146 units;


Parlay: 0.641 units on Wiman by Decision (+157), Mighty Mouse/Cruz to Go the Distance (-210), Not Lauzon by Decision (-1297), Maynard by Decision (+198), & Not Dos Santos by Decision (-887) to win 8.043 units.

[Vaughany]

Also made 6.35 units thanks to Martinez finishing Barker in the boxing.

[Vaughany]

BJ is correct, it's a value play and only a small play. I was expecting it to be +225 so couldn't resist a small play at +240. It also others more options with hedging in case I play Barry KO of the Night or Struve Sub of the Night (or both for that matter). How many people expected Hunt to decision Rothwell? There are a few factors that make me think this Barry/Struve fight has a reasonable chance of going the distance:

A) These two are buddies and we all know how non-clinical Barry can be at the best of times
B) Struve has said he plans to use his reach more effectively and not get caught up in a slugfest, I'd lean to believing this as he needs a win badly and surely even he and is coaches are now fully aware that his major defensive deficiencies just aren't sustainable
C) Struve can take a beating, and a lot of his fights have ended inside the distance because his opponent has gone to the ground after either taking Struve down or more often after knocking Struve down. I'm very sure that Barry won't be taking Struve down, and I'm quite confident that even if Struve get's knocked down, Barry will be hesitant to follow him to the ground. I think Barry will be concentrating on leg-kicks rather than trying to reach Struve with punches.

Wasn't far off with this one! Struve was a lot less reckless and Barry struggled with the height so relied on kicks. At times it did seem like a glorified sparring match...Miragliotta even told them at end of first round to pick it up. Barry made similar error to the Hague fight though, got casual after connecting and slightly rocking Struve, got too close and low and Struve slapped the choke on and was all down hill from there. Fortunately had the small play on Struve by Sub at +500. Tht line was a gift in hindsight

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 3.225 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Aldo/Florian Starts Rnd 2 (-345), & Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.617 units.

[Mr.Kitty]

Adding: Parlay: 3.225 units on Not Lauzon by Decision (-1135), Aldo/Florian Starts Rnd 2 (-345), & Maynard by Decision (+250) to win 12.617 units.

Good value for sure, Ladbrokes has this at +175, Betfair at +158 which looks right. Wrestling should be the key for Maynard, he needs to be more successful this time and try and keep Edgar on his back for prolonged periods of the fight. Edgar surprised me in that sense last time, he got the better of the wrestling and took Maynard down multiple times. Hard to keep him down tho. Should be a great fight again !

[Vaughany]

I think most the lines r set right, if made any play it woud be on wheeler again as underdog. If foster was facing anyone half decent I'd bet against him as he's goin thru personal problems at moment, but his opponent mason sucks big time!

Turns out Brad Wheeler was only underdog to win that night

[Beelzebubzy]

V are you going to hedge Sonnen with Stann sub of the night?

[Vaughany]

V are you going to hedge Sonnen with Stann sub of the night?

Depends on how much I risk on Sonnen by decision. I'm waiting for a couple of Euro books to release the props later in week as they should have Sonnen by decision at better odds then on Sportbet/5dimes. If I end up only put 5 to 10 units on him then I wont bother hedging. At +1000 or better Stann SOTN may be worth a small play as he'll probably be on his back a lot more than on his feet!

[Beelzebubzy]

Im thiking by now STann has developed a decent triangle as the rest of his game has progressed. and he did Triangle Massenzio.
But I do like Sonnen via LNP for three rounds here

[PunisherIND]

Turns out Brad Wheeler was only underdog to win that night

ivan musardo +400 also won in the main event.

[Vaughany]

ivan musardo +400 also won in the main event.

ha oh shit your right he did, I even watched it! Tell how hammered I was this wknd!

[ddream1]

congrats sir on a +$ week and i love the prospects u have going. u are one mad mma wagering genius

[sirchadwick1]

Depends on how much I risk on Sonnen by decision. I'm waiting for a couple of Euro books to release the props later in week as they should have Sonnen by decision at better odds then on Sportbet/5dimes. If I end up only put 5 to 10 units on him then I wont bother hedging. At +1000 or better Stann SOTN may be worth a small play as he'll probably be on his back a lot more than on his feet!

Stann by SUB (not even SOTN) is at +1120 right now. I would imagine SOTN would be around +1500 or so.