Cheers mf'er.
Well done.
Well done.
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cheers playa..couldn't have done it with out you edu
I'm faded off of Kush and blue moon right now...I got the celebration going a little early
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Great job Ill! We both had greats nights! Lets continue with UFC 119
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Anyone have odds for Sat boxing PPV? Looking for the Mosley vs Mora undercard.
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Looks like we all made between 5 - 7 units...good stuff Ill, should of taken the Branch at +137 in hindsight!Comment -
5dimes has their lines out
chalk city.. working on an article right now but I can't find any plays worth writing about
I was looking at mosley by decision at +102, but I need at least +145 to bet it
few other possible plays
Mora/Mosley goes distance is at -245
Mora wins by 12 rnd decision +274
still waiting for them to release the distance prop in the Victor ortiz fight...he's -1475 over harrisLast edited by illmatick; 09-16-10, 01:37 PM.Comment -
quick preview I did for the main event tomorrow.
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ill, mora doesnt have a shot in hell. he's come in terribly... overweight cause he couldnt get down to 154, where he has no business being anyway. SSM is shot to pieces and has never looked food at 154 but you can see from mora's condition at the weigh in he is ******Comment -
I hear you Trixie.
seeing him come in at 157 was disheartening, that's the primary reason I went with the +9.5 points opposed to playing him straight up. I heard he made the weight pretty easily on his second attempt though.
almost an identical situation to when Mora had weight trouble in the Vernon rematch, Vernon ended up embarrassing him. Still though...I think if he doesn't get knocked out early he can steal some of the late rounds.
I'm still trying to get a better read on the ALverez fight, I remember him getting roughed up against cotto's brother, a guy he was supposed to destroy( kids got a lot of natural talent though). Baldmoir's probably shot but I think he still has the chinLast edited by illmatick; 09-18-10, 03:46 AM.Comment -
I hear you too. I have no read on Alvarez but don't see him losing to Baldomir just on the basis that Baldy is done and there's no way Saul's promoters put him in with anything resembling a live body and threatening that cash cow. Cotto did shred him for a couple of rounds, that's correct.Comment -
small profit on the night
locked up 2 plays so far
Sergio Mora point handicap +9.5 -115 x1
Baldomir/Alvarez goes distance +110 x.5
+.37 units
fight played out like I expected, Mora fought like a puss and Mosley looked like he should retireComment -
o yeah, all the time right?Comment -
finished watching film on Paulino, poor guy is completely outclassed here.
if you like 10% edges, T.j grant is the play...I can't see this line closing at anything less than -220
added him as an official play, my best bet on the card
T.J Grant -165 x3.5Last edited by illmatick; 09-20-10, 04:05 PM.Comment -
Any thoughts on Sherk edging out a decision?Comment -
I noticed that too, those bastards at bodog kicked me out
if you like sherk to win then that's the only way I would reccomend betting him, decision prop is at +482
I can't remember the last time he shot for a take down. he said in a recent interview he had the better/crisper stand-up..lol, probably makes the mistake of trying to stand for 3 rounds again.Comment -
I'm actually considering straddling it with my Dunham play, all depends on whether or not Grant comes through for me.
I recently watched the Sherk vs Griffen fight and it got me thinking..... if he looks to implement the same game plan(actually did a nice job of taking Tyson down a few times) as he did in that fight, he might just squeak out a decision.
I actually thought Tyson should have won the last two rounds( landed the more effective strikes in both rounds) but just based off of Sherk's activity alone(threw more strikes), he probably swayed the judges.
solid interview with Melvin Guillard over at bjpenn.com
In the equation that makes a fighter successful there are a million tiny pieces that have to be polished and placed just so in order for a well trained machine to work efficiently. In the laundry list of attributes, the one intangible that can only be fulfilled by the fighter himself is potential. Many fighters have transitioned from gym mats to championships without ever having a shred of expectations but when the machine malfunctions, potential can be a haunting. Melvin Guillard has seen the bright lights of victory and the dark shadows of failure during his career and for awhile it appeared that the youthful disobedience of the Young Assassin was going be the end of him. A talented fighter who would find stretches of success only to self-destruct when the time came to shine. A cloud of trouble seemed to follow Guillard around and the only thing that ever held him back was the fighter himself. Knowing that he had to make a drastic change personally and professionally Guillard traveled to Albuquerque New Mexico to find the one coach who he felt above all others could handle his unique case. Since joining Greg Jackson’s team Guillard has been a beast inside of the octagon as he has shown improved patience and efficiency in the cage. Guillard tore through and disposed of his last opponent Waylon Lowe within the first round, ending the fight with a brutal knee to the midsection. The change in Guillard was immediately recognized by the UFC and when a closer look was taken…suddenly it became clear that not only had Jackson provided technical development to Guilldard’s fight game but the former New Orleans bad boy had become a man in full. Under the proper tutelage, Melvin Guillard has grown into the person he always knew he could become and while that will certainly provide a bright future for the Young Assassin, it undoubtedly spells trouble for the rest of the lightweight division. After the victory over Lowe, Guillard wasted zero time in cooking up his next matchup as he called out Jeremy Stephens. The two men will meet when the UFC makes its first trip to Indianapolis at UFC 119 on Sept. 25th and with the fight just a week away Guillard sat down for an interview. In this BJPenn.com Exclusive Guillard addressed the changes that had to be made in his career and how becoming a man was the missing piece to a puzzle that always carried so much potential. With camp ramping down and the fight approaching Guillard was asked how he was feeling heading into UFC 119.
“Everything is really good. I got a new nutritionist now and I’m on a new diet and right now I’m only 10 lbs over and still feeling healthy and strong. Everything is going according to schedule and each camp has gotten better than the last. That’s what happens in a 10 or 12 week camp that when you get to this stage where I’m at I’m mentally and physically ready. I’m feeling good right now.”
After losing to Nate Diaz, Guillard decided to make a much needed change. He made a pilgrimage of sorts to the deserts of the Southwest to find MMA guru Greg Jackson. Once settled into camp in Albuquerque, Guillard immediately noticed the impact. When asked to describe the specific things that have changed in him since joining Jackson’s he said…
“I think for me it’s the maturity. Being around Coach Greg…he’s very inspiring at times and he’s just one of those coaches. Same with Coach Wink as well because they are there to put belief back in you during the times you doubt yourself. That is the biggest reward of being here in addition to having so many talented guys and girls to train with everyday. I didn’t have that when I was in Houston or in New Orleans. The only person who was really there for me in those days was my Warren Donley. He reminds me a lot of Coach Greg but he was he was the only one I had. Here there are multiple people and everybody is family oriented. Everybody helps out everybody and it doesn’t matter if you are in the UFC, WEC or fighting in local shows it doesn’t matter because everyone is treated the same. That’s just the comradery that we have out here and I’ve never had that before. In the past at other gyms I was in the UFC and the other guys weren’t so I got treated differently so it’s been life changing for me and has also helped me become more of an adult. I’m doing more things with my wife and I look at myself and see a man now. I used to think like a young boy and see what I could get away with. Now I just things as an adult and realize that I have to pay for consequences. I watch what I do and think things through more now than I did back then.”
When the gym first started gaining attention it was for heavier fighters like Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt and Georges St. Pierre. Over the past year and a half a strong stable of smaller fighters have come to together to form a strong stable. When asked about having other high caliber fighters to train with Guillard replied…
“Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, Cub Swanson…we got Leonard (Garcia), Carlos Condit and just a stable of smaller fighters. What’s cool about down here in Albuquerque is that it’s all connected. There is a branch of Jackson’s in Denver which is Grudge and then up in Montreal at Tri-Star with GSP and Firas. No matter which gym you train at we are all under the same umbrella. For instance my last fight, all of us came together in the locker room and it was one family. I hadn’t had a chance to train with Coach Chambers but when it was time to step into the cage everybody was there. That’s one of the big advantages this team has and right now I’d say for lightweights and welterweights many of the fighters are here in Albuquerque. Except for guys like Keith Jardine and some of the light heavies everybody is in camp. It’s way more than what was here before from what I was told and we are still growing.”
Guillard was originally scheduled to face Thiago Tavares at UFC 114 but an injury close to the fight forced Tavares to withdraw. The UFC scrambled to find a replacement to face Guillard and Waylon Lowe accepted the challenge on short notice. It didn’t take Guillard more than two minutes to finish Lowe and when asked how it felt to finish in such devastating fashion he stated…
“For me every fight feels good especially when you are getting your hand raised. That’s what it is about. It’s about getting in there and winning fights and it was a great day for me. I take my hat off to Waylon Lowe because I have a great deal of respect for the guy because he stepped up in three weeks to fight me. It didn’t go his way and wasn’t going to allow it to because I’m in there to win. Thiago Tavares he has ducked me like three or four times and ironically at the weigh-ins to the Lowe fight his manager approached me and said, “I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news but Thiago just doesn’t want to fight you because he thinks it’s a bad matchup for him”. This was like the second time this guy pulled out of the fight and now because of what his manager said I think he’s faking injuries because he’s afraid to fight me? Guys like that I lose all my respect for because I feel like if you are a fighter then you should be prepared for fight. Win or lose…you go in there and give it your all and you come a little short…so be it. I can’t respect a guy who doesn’t want to fight because he’s scared or intimidated. I guess that’s because my entire career I’ve never turned down a fight. People have criticized me since I’ve been in the UFC because I haven’t fought guys like Kenny Florian or Frankie Edgar yet and I want them to know that I fight the people who the UFC tell me to fight. When Joe Silva calls me and says, “Hey Melvin we want you to take this fight,” I’m going to take it no matter who it is. It just so happens that I was able to make my own fight for this card because it was a fight that was brewing because Jeremy Stephens and I were talking about it and we knew it would be on the main card and knew it would be a great fight. At the end of the day it’s about putting myself in position to make good money but also move myself closer to the title.”
In the post-fight interview with Joe Rogan, The Young Assassin took a bold step and called out fellow powerhouse Jeremy Stephens. The fight made sense to Joe Silva so he made it official and now they will collide at UFC 119 in Indianapolis. It is already an early favorite for “Fight of the Night” and when asked about the call out and his thoughts heading into Indianapolis Guillard replied…
“For me I’m always thinking in a positive manner. I know it my heart and my soul that I’m a better fighter than Jeremy Stephens. I’m faster, quicker, stronger and there is nothing that he has that can beat me other than that big right hand. If guys really pay attention to a lot of my fights, in my last two fights I didn’t even get touched. I walked out of the octagon after both fights without a scratch on me and that is something that I’m proud to speak on. I never put myself in a bad situation because I’m always in and out, sticking and moving. I make guys come to me and I’m striking. Jeremy Stephens isn’t used to that. He’s used to guys that fight him standing right in front of him and trade with him. I think that is why Stout, who I am really cool with, came up short in that fight because he stayed in the pocket. He landed just as many punches but I think Jeremy landed a few harder punches that kind of threw Stout off balance at times and I think that swayed the judges. To me it was a very close fight and it could have gone either way. I’m not saying Jeremy didn’t really win but guys that stand right in front of him…of course he’s gonna be dangerous. He hits hard don’t get me wrong. Anybody can hit hard if you are standing right in front of them like a punching bag. A punching bag doesn’t move it just stays right there but I’m always moving in and out and I’m always hitting. I’m able to hit guys and get away before they hit me. When it comes to that I’m looking at it like I have the upper hand. I’m not doubting him and I’m not going to say he is going to be an easy challenge because I wouldn’t have called him it if I thought that. I definitely got to put in my work and in the end I’m going to get my hand raised.”
Jeremy Stephens is known for ending fights in devastating fashion with big overhand punches. Guillard, who is also a highly regarded striker, has seen an evolution to his game that relies on speed and movement. Many critics have broken down the fight based on power alone but few seem to notice that Guillard’s movement could be the decisive edge. When asked to comment on this analysis he responded…
“One thing I learned from my boxing coach is that I can generate more power with my speed than I would if I was just trying to muscle a punch. I was one of those guys when I first started fighting I was just a wrestler so before I really started developing my stand-up I fought just like Jeremy. In looking at Jeremy Stephens now he reminds me a lot of myself back when I was 17 or 18 because I fought just like him. The only difference was that I had wrestling to back up what I didn’t know on my feet. A lot of guys out there sleep on the fact that I’m a brownbelt in Judo, probably six months away from getting my blackbelt. I’m a state champion in wrestling and I wrestled two years on the national team and a year of college. A lot of people sleep on my wrestling ability because I’m such a feared striker and I like it."
Right now I have guys on the inside down in San Diego watching him train. I have friends that he didn’t even know and they feed me all of the information. I know about all of the guys he brought in to try to help him with his wrestling. One thing you have to know….you can’t learn wrestling overnight. You can’t learn wrestling in a year, wrestling takes time to develop. He can bring in all of the guys he wants to try to psyche himself up to make himself think he’ll be ready for what I bring but I’m one of those fighters who trains to fight. I don’t train to fight a style…I train to fight a fighter so when it gets to the cage I make guys fight my fight. I’ll never fight someone else’s fight. When it starts to happen in the cage and I notice a guy trying to force things a certain way I make sure to do the opposite. Because I’m fast and explosive I’m able to keep myself out of their game. I keep myself in my own head.”
A victory over Jeremy Stephens at UFC 119 will make it three straight for Guillard. With the UFC lightweight division quickly becoming one of the most competitive weight classes in all of MMA Guillard was asked where a victory in Indianapolis will put him in the divisional picture.
“I already have somebody in mind who I’m calling out next and like I said man…everything I do is to better my position, make money and put myself closer to winning that title. If I didn’t have the confidence in myself then I shouldn’t be fighting. To me there is no such thing as an easy fight in the UFC so if I didn’t believe in myself then why take that chance? I did take a lot of chances early on with guys who were making their debuts or were newcomers and to me they are the most dangerous because they don’t have anything to lose. A lot of people criticize and say you fought a newbie or something like that but those guys are dangerous because they have nothing to lose and we have everything to lose…and by that I’m talking about losing my job. I’ve been in the UFC 5 years and have never been cut or let go. I may have sit out for awhile because of my own actions but as far as my talent and my ability in that cage I’ve never been cut and the UFC loves me. If you ask me a lot of people don’t give enough credit to the new guys and they are tough man….look at the guy who fought Efrain the other night (Charles Oliveira). To me it felt like Efrain may have overlooked him because it was his debut but I knew what was up. That kid came out explosive and took him out. That is why when the UFC asks me to fight new guys I get a bit nervous. For one I don’t have much video for my coaches to go over and so you don’t know what to expect. When they get in that cage and those doors lock one of two things are going to happen. Either they are going to go crazy and try to kill you or the will fold under the pressure from a live audience. It’s one of two things but you never know which one it will be. Right now I’m calling out top contenders…all the top contenders until I get mine. Like I tell everybody I don’t want Dana to give me anything. When I get that title I want the whole world to recognize that I worked my way there and deserved it. I don’t want anybody saying ‘well they didn’t have anyone else in line to fight Frankie, so we are going to let you fight him.’ That is what they were doing to B.J….they did the same to GSP and Anderson Silva. They didn’t have anyone else to put in there so they just tried to find guys to fight them. In a few cases those fighters just happened to have their kryptonite that night but when I get there I’m making it on my own and because I deserved it.”
As the interview came to a close Guillard wanted to thank those people who have been so instrumental in the life change that he has made. He also took a moment to clear up a recent Twitter situation that has created some confusion throughout his fan base.
“I have a new shirt coming out with Iron Star which is a branch off of Silver Star so I’m going to be rocking my new walkout shirt for UFC 119 so check that out. Also things have been messed up or there has been some confusion with my Twitter. My real Twitter is @young__assassin. They got about 3 or 4 pages who have Twitter accounts with my first and last name that are not me. Any of my Twitter of Facebook pages has a picture of my wife. I don’t put any of my fight photos on my personal accounts anymore because there have been so many fake pages. That’s a big thing for me because I’m promoting myself and those other pages, if people paid attention to them they would see that they are really talking bad about me. Why would I talk bad about myself? You got to be a dumbass to not know that’s not me. I just want to thank 22 reels, my wife for all the support. She’s been with me for the last few camps and has been at every fight. She’s definitely my backbone and she keeps me strong and sane. I also want to thank my family and every body that supports me. I won’t let you guys down. I know I let a lot of people down in the past and I didn’t hold my own as an adult but I’ve matured now, grown up and I see life from a whole different perspective. I want thank every body for sticking behind me…I really appreciate it.”Comment -
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Haven't watched either of these guys, but I have bd account so i'll follow and lay 3 for 2.Comment -
Thanks for all of the write-ups Illmatik. You know your shiznitt.Comment -
gl south
added a few plays
recap...
1.T.J Grant -165 x3.5
2Matt Mitrione-140 x1.5
3.Evan Dunham -230 to win one unit
4.Melvin Guillard -150 x.75
5.Joe Doerksen +250 x.75
6.Nogueira +155 x.25
Sherk wins by 3 round decision +387 x.5
Joey Beltran has quickest submission +2600 x.25Comment -
GL Ill. I didnt find much value in the sides for this card but I'll be rooting for ur guys to pull through lol. I am on Grant, Sherk by Decision and Doerksen by Sub so we have a little bit of overlap. As a fan I realllllly hope Lil Nog comes through for you but I have a sick feeling in my gut he gets TKOed...I dunno why, just one of those feelings..hopefully not!!!Comment -
Lol i wouldn't worry about flurries from Sherk being problematic...check his compu box numbers, they're consistently awful accuracy wiseComment -
McCorkle thoughts? He's a ground fighter and Hunt doesn't fare too well with that. I can get 190 at Bodog.Comment -
Mccorkle or pass for me, his opposition has been horrible though..... too hard for me to grasp his skill set from the limited youtube footage I watched
I wouldn't bet it.
These are the type of guys he's fought..lol
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