Boxing/MMA PLAYS

[illmatick]

recap for tonight

Tarec +200 x.75
Tarec +180 x.25
Tarec +165 x.25

Villefort +325 x.5
Villefort +300 x.25

Wladimir vs Peter

Fight won't go distance -290 x1.5

3-0 for the night

+5.23 units

[koscheckbaby]

Can someone tell me why I heard lots of gambling sentiment on Villefort? He seemed like a terrible fighter in the fight. Was it an anti-Villasenor being a big favorite value play or is Villefort supposed to be something?

[illmatick]

You should have watched more film on Villefort, I was confident he would be able to land some takedowns and his bjj is pretty nasty

sloppy fight but it was effective

[koscheckbaby]

He was content to just hump Villasenor. Good for if you bet on him. Angering when you want to watch a fight. loL

[Eccocide]

GJ tonight Ill! Wish I woulda bet on Saffiediene but i pussed out. Was also gunna bet Davila but went with a stupid parlay of favourites instead that lost haha...should always trust your instincts!

[lasker]

Great picks!

[wquine]

@illmatick - do you or accotide keep a long term record? I guess with the crazy juice it doesn't really relate if you are winning over 60% or whatever, but do you guys think mma/ufc etc is the most profitable betting sport?

[wquine]

sry meant eccotide obv.

[wquine]

make that eccocide! i need2 go back 2 school...

[Eccocide]

@illmatick - do you or accotide keep a long term record? I guess with the crazy juice it doesn't really relate if you are winning over 60% or whatever, but do you guys think mma/ufc etc is the most profitable betting sport?

I haven't added up my YTD total in a bit but I believe I'm up around 18 units. I'll get an up-to-date count sometime this week hopefully as I've been meaning to do it. As for win % I don't keep one as for the most part I'm betting dogs, small favourites or props and win % doesn't translate to positive units.

As for being the most profitable betting sport, its hard to say. If you went back about 2 years ago, I'd say yes it was right up there with the most profitable. The lines were soft and not much money was being placed on the fights so you could definitely find great value. I was just getting into betting on MMA seriously around that period and I wish I woulda started sooner so I could have taken advantage! I have found that the lines have been getting much tighter over the last year as linesmakers are paying more attention to the openers they put out. As well, the MMA game as a whole is more difficult to cap as fighters skillsets are evening out as many are adapting to all disciplines. I still believe theres lots of money to be made in it, its just not as easy as it was a few years back. Generally, I find the most value in undercards and I try to focus a considerable amount of time those fights.

As for Ill, I'll let him answer for himself but he's been on a nice run lately and I'm sure he's up a nice amount on the year!

[illmatick]

ECCO pretty much nailed it, not sure exactly how many units I'm up but eventually I'll go through all my plays to total it up. I used to keep two separate threads(one for boxing, one for mma) but I started this one to combine both sports.

here's my old ufc thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...ufc-plays.html, I also have a few other random plays that I posted before then

basically what ecco said, UFC/WEC lines in particular have become a lot sharper recently, due in large part to the talent gap between fighters not being what it used to be

I used to be able to turn an easy profit just off of the fighter database I had in my head, now it takes an ass load of film study, every little detail counts.

[wquine]

well i appreciate the fast response guys. the talent gap makes total sense as this sport becomes more mainstream everyday. do either of you ever take psychological angles when choosing a side? I will definitely consider your inputs before playing myself. Again, thank you.

[illmatick]

Occasionally, most notably when a fighter is coming off a brutal knockout or the possibility of a mentally weaker fighter letting trash talk effect his game-plan going into a fight.

There are two fights I'm looking to bet on in the near future that may have some psychological angles to them. One of the being Karo Parisian ,more so in a literal sense but he has been accused of drug use and has had mental issues in the past.

just based off of his name we may be offered a favorable line on his opponnet, Deniss Hallman

the other fight is this wednesday. I really think we'll see a lot of Value in Dave Branch but it's hard to say how strong he will come back after being brutally knocked out by Gerald Wallace. Sometimes that's all it takes to completely alter a fighter's career... ex. Chuck after the Rashad fight or Cro-cop after Gonzaga

few other people will throw out things like fighters having newborn babies but I don't really subscribe to any of that.

[koscheckbaby]

Drwal vs Norman Smiley should be a good fight Wednesday. I think Drwal might actually be underestimated because he slipped against Palhares and lost so quickly. He was beating Thiago Silva until he gassed at 205, successfully sprawl and brawling, beat up McFedries, who is tough to deal with if you strike, and first round TKO'ed two other decent guys in the UFC. Branch is a BJJ guy who just got KTFO. If the line is close, get on Drwal. If Drwal is a heavy favorite, a flyer on Branch would be decent too. Drwal has been prone to gassing in the past. Coming off the injury to Palhares, I doubt he has a gas tank.

[illmatick]

LOL at Norman Smiley...I had to look that up

you make some good points but the key to betting this fight is the lack of respect people give to branch's stand-up skills

both of his brothers are professional boxers and he has been in and around high level boxing gyms since he was young.

he was bit tentative in the Gerald fight but that was primarily due to Gerald's wrestling pedigree. Just look at his form and the way he throws his punches...by mma standards it's simply amazing to see


Unfortunately it looks like the bookmakers see what I see, he just opened at +140, I was hoping to get +170 or better but we'll see, I'm gonna make a small play on him either way

[Vaughany]

LOL at Norman Smiley...I had to look that up

you make some good points but the key to betting this fight is the lack of respect people give to branch's stand-up skills

both of his brothers are professional boxers and he has been in and around high level boxing gyms since he was young.

he was bit tentative in the Gerald fight but that was primarily due to Gerald's wrestling pedigree. Just look at his form and the way he throws his punches...by mma standards it's simply amazing to see


Unfortunately it looks like the bookmakers see what I see, he just opened at +140, I was hoping to get +170 or better but we'll see, I'm gonna make a small play on him either way

Yeah I agree, I was surprised by Branch's stand-up against Harris, it did look pretty good, his movement was decent as well. Hopefully Branch will go up to +155 maybe even +165 by fight night. And Norman Smiley is a great shout!

[illmatick]

should be a good chance we get a better number before Wednesday, Vaughany

most likely the betting public will gravitate towards Drawl...I think this is one of the first times I've seen The GREEK be the first sportsbook to put out an under-card line... those bastards are sharp!!

[Vaughany]

should be a good chance we get a better number before Wednesday, Vaughany

most likely the betting public will gravitate towards Drawl...I think this is one of the first times I've seen The GREEK be the first sportsbook to put out an under-card line

ha ye I thought it was weird when I noticed that "the Greek" was the only one when I looked on bestfightodds.com! I jus checked Bet365 and they have the line out but Branch is 11/8 (+137) and Drwal -175 so not so good. Hopefully, paddypower will release it late tomorrow and will be better.

[illmatick]

good info, I wonder if THE Greek just cloned bet365's line

let me know when paddypower puts something out

[southmadejd]

I agree with you guys, I think Dave Branch's stand up is absolutely amazing. He made one horrible mistake against Harris and that was jumping guard. Honestly I don't think we need to worry about his chin because that slam was absolutely brutal and would have put the lights out on almost anybody except Fedor maybe. But psychologically, that could be a different story. I think he is very talented though.

[illmatick]

gl south, he might be my only play for the card...still trying to decide how I want to play the Nate fight, might put nate in a parlay and maybe play the Nate to win in round 3 prop...didn't like how quickly Palhares looked to have gassed against Lucio Linhares, although a lot of it had to do with how much grappling took place in the first round

line is already moving Branch's way. I'm gonna bite now and look to add more on the day of the fight

Dave Branch +135 x.75

[koscheckbaby]

I guess Im follow you guys on Branch. I like Drwal's power here though. But what do I know when it comes to fighters I don't really follow

[Educ8d Degener8]

Umm, fellas, I say this in the kindest way possible...

Can you close your yaps on the Branch fight until 5dimes opens their late azz lines...

(loving that value too)

[illmatick]

hehe..I underestimated the betting public on that one edu

added another small play

Rich Attonito +165 x.5

[rocky mattioli]

my recollection was that the rbr had harris pretty much dominating branch.....i went back and checked the rbr reportage and it pretty much confirmed what i remembered...

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/UFC-116-Results-amp-Live-Play-by-Play-25286

haven`t watched the fight with my own eyes....maybe i need to go find it and watch it....

.i grabbed tibau at +175(probably a loser,but i couldn`t pass it up)....and a parlay with pearson and brian foster....

may tag along on the oliveira by sub at +475...

excellent converstion on tomorrow`s card...enjoy reading all the give and take...

[Educ8d Degener8]

Rocky, all I remember is thinking that Branch had solid stand-up for bjj guy... but was getting a bit cocky with it iirc. To the point that when the slam happened, I vaguely recall thinking, "Yup, he kinda deserved that."

And unfortunately, the Zuffa gustapo has pretty much shut down all of my resources for reviewing footage

But from the weigh-ins, it looks like the Hamman vs Kingsbury fight should be in Dream's frickin Superhulk tourney...

[rocky mattioli]

Rocky, all I remember is thinking that Branch had solid stand-up for bjj guy... but was getting a bit cocky with it iirc. To the point that when the slam happened, I vaguely recall thinking, "Yup, he kinda deserved that."

And unfortunately, the Zuffa gustapo has pretty much shut down all of my resources for reviewing footage

But from the weigh-ins, it looks like the Hamman vs Kingsbury fight should be in Dream's frickin Superhulk tourney...

some ufc fights are tough to find...totally agree...thanks dana and zuffa(lol)...

i found rds 2 & 3 of branch/harris....i was wrong in using the term "domination"...it wasn`t....but harris was winning...harris is a tough s.o.b....

http://vodpod.com/watch/3959076-gerald-harris-vs-dave-branch-video-ufc-116

also,here`s drwal vs thiago silva...a great fight while it lasted...drwall is a bit raw...but he goes hard for as long as he can...and this is his second fight coming down from 205(loss to palhares was the first)...

http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/105/940-thiago-silva-vs-tomasz-drwal.html

after watching these fights,i`m quite interested in this bout....branch with quicker hands...better movement...he`s a black belt,but drwal actually has 4 legit subs himself...branch also has a boxing bloodline(he`s the brother of sechew powell..who knew?...and another ex boxer jamelle hamilton)....

what`s worrisome is that drwal throws bombs....and he`s busy..he had thiago silva on the backfoot most of their fight......dangerous guy...a finisher(15 out of 17 wins).. actually both guys are(branch 6 for 6 finishes)

verrry interesting fight....

[illmatick]

gl rocky , i might add the olivera by sub prop later tonight

the Anttonito line is finally moving my way

added a few plays, here's a complete recap

1.Dave Branch +145 x.75
+135 x.75

2.Rich Attonito +165 x.5

3.Nate Marquardt -230 to win one unit

prop bets/parlays
N.Marquardt wins in round 3 +950 x.25
C.Oliveira wins in round 2 +750 x.25
x.5
Brian Foster -240
Efrain Escudero -165
Ross Pearson -255


here's a short write-up I did

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/Sports/15567/ufc-betting-pick-nate-marquardt-versus-rousimar-palhares.aspx

[rocky mattioli]

gl rocky , i might add the olivera by sub prop later tonight

the Anttonito line is finally moving my way

added a few plays, here's a complete recap

1.Dave Branch +145 x.75
+135 x.75

2.Rich Attonito +165 x.5

3.Nate Marquardt -230 to win one unit

prop bets/parlays
N.Marquardt wins in round 3 +950 x.25
C.Oliveira wins in round 2 +750 x.25
x.5
Brian Foster -240
Efrain Escudero -165
Ross Pearson -255


here's a short write-up I did

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...-palhares.aspx

excellent work...thanks for providing....

[illmatick]

looks like I spoke too soon on Rich, back up to +168

added another unit on Branch at +140


also a parlay

x.5
branch +135
Waldburger +140

[Mr.Kitty]

BOL illmatick

[rocky mattioli]

wondering about my tibau +175 wager...miller all the way down to -130....

may hedge miller in a par with something...


hell with it...small play at +175 rides...not worth the hassle...

[firedawg]

is there anywhere to watch prelims?

[illmatick]

1.Dave Branch +145 x.75 +135 x.75

2.Rich Attonito +165 x.5 http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...-palhares.aspx

looks like I spoke too soon on Rich, back up to +168

added another unit on Branch at +140

also a parlay x.5 branch +135 Waldburger +140

3-0 so far... Branch takes it 30-27

bought out of my Nate play...I don't even want that action

[Ewoi]

Hey, what do you think of Ross Pearson vs Cole? I really like Ross and his line is dropping.