Boxing/MMA PLAYS

[illmatick]

sorry jedi, I'll give my opinions on those fights if I have time tomorrow

I do like the parlay though.

here's a quick boxing write-up i put together for Saturday

.sbrforum.com/betting+articles/sports/16036/shannon-briggs-vs-vitali-klitschko-heavyweight-boxing.aspx

[Educ8d Degener8]

Where da f*ck you been sucka?!

[illmatick]

Been extremely busy with a bunch of bullshit.

have you locked anything up for up UFC 120?

It might be the toughest card to handicap this year, I honestly can't find anything worth more than a small play.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Been extremely busy with a bunch of bullshit.

have you locked anything up for up UFC 120?

It might be the toughest card to handicap this year, I honestly can't find anything worth more than a small play.

Word on the busy bullshit... Same here lately.

No doubt this is a focking stalemate of a card to cap.

I'm only eyeballing 4 fights, looking for potential value on either side. Trying to do homework tonite maybe:
Kongo vs Browne -- already started reviewing footage yesterday.
Diabate vs Gustafsson
Patrick vs Wilks
McSweeney vs Maldonado

I'm staying the fock away from the main and co-main. Hometown advantage and weird focking judges lately lends itself to leaning the homeboys (Bisping and Hardy), but I dunno... Hardy by decision w/ Condit by sub??? And I'll spark 420 for Hathaway but I'm not laying 420 juice on him as a favorite...

Will post if anything jumps out at me.

ED

[Chairib]

I miss you pooky

[illmatick]

I miss you pooky

where the FOK have you been? I misplaced your twitter account so I couldn't get a hold of you.

I needed you to talk me out of pounding Miranda over Maia.

[Chairib]

I flew out to Hawaii and then over to Asia for work so I haven't been doing much posting or wagering for a bit. I thought I gave you my email before? You can twat me @chairib too.

I don't know why SBR wont allow me to link to my own twitter, seems a bit silly.

[illmatick]

resend me your email, I must have misplaced that as well


plays for wec and ufc


Andre Winner +105 x1.5
Reljic -115 x1
ALESSIO SAKARA -110 x.75
CARLOS EDUARDO ROCHA -115 x.75
ALEXANDRE FERREIRA +220 x.25

Javier Vasquez +240 x.25

still deciding on what to do with Okami

[illmatick]

Yves Jabouin +160 x1.25

parlay x.5
mcdonald-145
Marcus Hicks +180

parlay x.75
Faber -350
Page -275

[Vaughany]

Im liking the WEC plays Ill, we both got Vazquez, Jabouin and Mcdonald

[Vaughany]

Jabouin gets the win! Great start

[illmatick]

Jabouin gets the win! Great start

Godfrey taps

I had Jabouin capped as the favorite, Tyler Toner exposed most of Visher's deficiencies.


30-27 was nice

[illmatick]

+1 unit tonight

cashed my best bet on Yves but Page screws one of my parlays..should have known better considering his layoff, completely gassed after round 1.

cashed the first leg of my other parlay, still need Hicks on Saturday

parlay x.5
mcdonald-145 $
Marcus Hicks +180

[illmatick]

MFC's usually good for few live dogs.

Wallace +110 x.75
Dwayne Lewis +160 x.5
Spratt +225 x.25

Juarez seems legit but Lima impressed the hell out of me in his last fight, may end up biting on the dog later tonight

[Vaughany]

MFC's usually good for few live dogs.

Wallace +110 x.75
Dwayne Lewis +160 x.5
Spratt +225 x.25

Juarez seems legit but Lima impressed the hell out of me in his last fight, may end up biting on the dog later tonight

Yeah I agree, I think tht is decent value for Spratt and Lewis. And Wallace was great value at +145 when it came out (even though he is fighting on a weeks notice or something silly) and still decent value at Evens or better IMO. None of my books have MFC lines available unfortunately.

[Educ8d Degener8]

MFC's usually good for few live dogs.

Wallace +110 x.75
Dwayne Lewis +160 x.5
Spratt +225 x.25

Juarez seems legit but Lima impressed the hell out of me in his last fight, may end up biting on the dog later tonight

Wallace at -115 on 5dimes now...

I should put at least a small play in earlier when i started that thread

Spratt up to +240 does have some interest to me... hmmmm.

[Vaughany]

Wallace at -115 on 5dimes now...

I should put at least a small play in earlier when i started that thread

Spratt up to +240 does have some interest to me... hmmmm.

Yeah he was always going to end up the favourite just simply because he's only jus been released from the UFC! If he'd been scheduled to fight Heath 2 months ago rather than on a weeks notice Im sure the line would of come out with Wallace at least -250 favourite.

[illmatick]

Yeah I agree, I think tht is decent value for Spratt and Lewis. And Wallace was great value at +145 when it came out (even though he is fighting on a weeks notice or something silly) and still decent value at Evens or better IMO. None of my books have MFC lines available unfortunately.

Wallace at -115 on 5dimes now... I should put at least a small play in earlier when i started that thread Spratt up to +240 does have some interest to me... hmmmm.

Wallace at -115 on 5dimes now... I should put at least a small play in earlier when i started that thread Spratt up to +240 does have some interest to me... hmmmm.

honestly I think he's playable up to -130.

looks like the money is coming in on Juarez, still not sure what I'll do.

[illmatick]

MFC's usually good for few live dogs.

Wallace +110 x.75
Dwayne Lewis +160 x.5
Spratt +225 x.25

Juarez seems legit but Lima impressed the hell out of me in his last fight, may end up biting on the dog later tonight

2-1 +1.38 units



I went to confirm a bet on Kajan Johnson at +190 and the line closed on me, I must have missed it by less than 2 seconds

[Vaughany]

2-1 +1.38 units



I went to confirm a bet on Kajan Johnson at +190 and the line closed on me, I must have missed it by less than 2 seconds

Nice one bud, always good when the split-decision goes in your favour! Wish I could of got those Wallace and Lewis lines.

[illmatick]

I didn't get to see the Lewis fight, the play-by-play I was following scored it a draw, haha

you motherfukker Vaughany, do you ever sleep?

when are you coming to the states? I would like to set up a nice little sparring session, 16 oz gloves if you want!

what are your stats? I think you might be the only person here who is younger than me.

age
height
punch resistance

[Vaughany]

I didn't get to see the Lewis fight, the play-by-play I was following scored it a draw, haha

you motherfukker Vaughany, do you ever sleep?

when are you coming to the states? I would like to set up a nice little sparring session, 16 oz gloves if you want!

what are your stats? I think you might be the only person here who is younger than me.

age
height
punch resistance

Well to quote the great Nas..."I never sleep cause sleep is the cousin of death..."! ha how do you know I'm younger than you Ill?...I could be a fat, hairy, 40 year old virgin for all you know! Hopefully heading across the pond next year actually! I'm really 23, 6ft weighin in at 182 lbs with a similar punch resistance to Jonathan Goulet I'd imagine! Although many have described me as being the second coming of Gokhan Saki with regard to my fighting style!

And yeah the site I looked at for the play-by-play said that they thought Lewis only won the first round I think. They also said Spratt won the first round of his fight with Ford and Juarez won the first 2 rounds against Lima so was almost a great night for dogs.

[illmatick]

lol, I just remember you saying you were working on a college paper...you have me beat by a year

The Spratt fight I watched, he looked good in the first round.... but in typical Ford fashion, he reverted to a nut shot that took a lot of steam out of spratt.

Spratt still doesn't know how to properly defend a rear naked choke.

[rocky mattioli]

that was the "nut shot" heard around the world....sounded like a gunshot....

btw,nice job last night,ill....

[illmatick]

thanks rocky, biggest disappointment for me was not getting my bet in on Kajan at +190, turned out to be the easiest win of the night.

lets hope for some good luck today, one more solid event and bookmaker.com's going to have my ** control number ready on monday ..I think those bastards did away with their one free payout a month option.

bout to fire away on some college football as well, chasing pinny steam on sleep deprivation can be a dangerous proposition. been awake for well over 32 hours

[illmatick]

I know you're a boxing guy rocky, who do you like tonight?

[rocky mattioli]

i posted an obscure prop in somebody`s thread...undercard fight....mike jones/jesus soto karrass over 8.5...caught it at -130...seeing -150-ish now....jones has 18 stoppages in 22 wins...still,soto karrass is tough as nails and almost as tall...barring a cut,i expect it to go rounds...not a big play...

as far as the paq/margo fight,i`m wondering at what point will manny`s march upthw eight division ladder be one weight class too many.....

based on recent performances,manny`s the better fighter...speed kills.....he has roach planning strtegy(maybe the best strategist in boxing?...the anti-buddy mcgirt).but this video scares me...the size differential...

****having trouble getting stuff to work in here...just click on the embed code...





margo looked pretty pedestrian vs moseley(who hasn`t exactly been burning down the house vs mayweather and sergio mora...i though he lost to mora)...

but now we hear about all manny`s distractions(political office/campaigning in nevada for dingy harry reid/celebrity appearances)....even roach finds all these distractions disconcerting....

if you decide to par manny(which i did),you pretty much have to hedge with some sort of margarito play(you could do inside the distance,but at around+365 flat,it`s not really necessary to take the risk)....

unless i feel totally confident,i tend to tread lightly in the high profile fights...i like to nibble around the edges...find the obscure line mistakes(or at least what i perceive as mistakes)...

i`m still looking...checking in with some friends for some other undercard opinions....

if anything surfaces,i`ll check back in...should have something interesting...

btw...a college foots friend likes baylor at home plus the 3....

g.l.,bud...

[rocky mattioli]

another college foots play...utah-5/5.5....

apparently theres no depth behind n.d.`s starting qb and nose tackleand they`re both out...a guy that follows n.d. very closely likes this very much...i`m treading lightly,but i`m playing it...

[illmatick]

Baylor's might start taking in some descent money, Utah is a little too publicly backed for me to lay the -5.5...line is starting to move the other way as well.

Baylor's movement
MONEYLINES
11/10 18:27 -144 / +130
11/12 14:06 -140 / +127
11/12 14:07 -142 / +129
11/13 07:31 -140 / +127
11/13 12:13 -146 / +132

I'll look into that boxing play later today

[rocky mattioli]

Baylor's might start taking in some descent money, Utah is a little too publicly backed for me to lay the -5.5...line is starting to move the other way as well.

Baylor's movement
MONEYLINES
11/10 18:27 -144 / +130
11/12 14:06 -140 / +127
11/12 14:07 -142 / +129
11/13 07:31 -140 / +127
11/13 12:13 -146 / +132

I'll look into that boxing play later today

glad you didn`t touch utah........the guy that gave me n.d. will be receiving a package containing a mysterious substance monday.........

[illmatick]

lost 1.25 units on my Winner bet

added 1.75 units on Okami +160

[rocky mattioli]

way to bounce back with okami...

[Educ8d Degener8]

...bout to fire away on some college football as well, chasing pinny steam on sleep deprivation can be a dangerous proposition. been awake for well over 32 hours

You tracking line movement on CFB homie?

[Vaughany]

lost 1.25 units on my Winner bet

added 1.75 units on Okami +160

Good shit saving your night with the Okami bet!

Ill, need your thoughts on the Hallman/Parisyan fight coming up next wknd? I remember you had a couple units on him against Saunders and I had Killa B as the last leg of a parlay, and made the error of not hedging the parlay with a play on Hallman! If Hallman does comes out as the dog then I like him in this one simply because Parisyan is surely going to have some octagon rust. Although he did fight in Australia back in July, he ended the fight in the second round and it was against Mortimer who has a record of 4-3 and is a level or 2 below a guy like Hallman. My thinking is that Karo may gas in the third round, whilst Hallman as sorted out his issues with health and stamina by dealing with his gluten allergy! Right I'm hitting the sack for the first time in a couple of days!

[illmatick]

way to bounce back with okami...

thanks rocky, planned on making Okami an even larger wager but wasn't feeling as confident after losing two straight on the main card.

finished slightly ahead for the event, made a little under a unit on the night.

nice call on that over 8.5 rounds rocky.

You tracking line movement on CFB homie?

sbrlines can be your best friend, I'll track any sport I think I have an edge in...I like to look for a lot pucklines in hockey, undedogs and unders in the nba, and just about anything when it comes to football..especially props.

John seemed open to the idea of putting MMA up on sbrodds, I'm probably going to ask him again when I get a chance.

Good shit saving your night with the Okami bet! Ill, need your thoughts on the Hallman/Parisyan fight coming up next wknd? I remember you had a couple units on him against Saunders and I had Killa B as the last leg of a parlay, and made the error of not hedging the parlay with a play on Hallman! If Hallman does comes out as the dog then I like him in this one simply because Parisyan is surely going to have some octagon rust. Although he did fight in Australia back in July, he ended the fight in the second round and it was against Mortimer who has a record of 4-3 and is a level or 2 below a guy like Hallman. My thinking is that Karo may gas in the third round, whilst Hallman as sorted out his issues with health and stamina by dealing with his gluten allergy! Right I'm hitting the sack for the first time in a couple of days!

should have a quick betting preview put out tomorrow, I might do the Hallman fight or Penn vs. Hughes..

plays for Saturday

Boxing:

1.Sergio Martinez -115 x1

UFC:

1.Aaron Simpson +135 x.5
2.Dennis Hallman +130 x.75
3.Tyson Griffin -205 x.75
4.B.J Penn -155 x2.25