Boxing/MMA PLAYS

[Educ8d Degener8]

Liking that Tyson Griffin play, and Hallman as well (and I'm a Karo fan)...

Tempted to parlay Mr. Wonderful with something (maybe Machida or Saints ML).

GL bud. I'm really stoked for this card.

[Eccocide]

Good to see u solidly on BJ as well. I will also be on Tyson in some capacity.

[Chairib]

You guys ever watch the TV show Men of a Certain Age? It's got Ray Romano playing a recovering gambling addict.

[illmatick]

Liking that Tyson Griffin play, and Hallman as well (and I'm a Karo fan)... Tempted to parlay Mr. Wonderful with something (maybe Machida or Saints ML). GL bud. I'm really stoked for this card.

Good to see u solidly on BJ as well. I will also be on Tyson in some capacity.

gl guys, kinda surprised more money hasn't come in on Tyson yet, still think the line will close in the -235 range.

You guys ever watch the TV show Men of a Certain Age? It's got Ray Romano playing a recovering gambling addict.

haven't seen it but I'll try and find some torrents , My dvr is currently flooded with a few shows I still need to catch up on.

Boardwalk Empire, best new HBO show imo !
The Walking dead...new zombie show on amc, better than I expected
Dexter... show is fading but still watchable

Condit vs Mcdonald right now on spike, have to relive that awful beat I took on the distance prop

[HauntingTheHoly]

Sergio vs. Paul is a dead even fight. Is there any reason to believe Sergio is going to have gained significant ground for this rematch? The first fight was dead even and they're the same fighters. I can't imagine what reasoning one would use to bet on either fighter, it's clearly a coin flip to me, and at -115 a piece, no value at all that I can see.

[southmadejd]

Bro, I can't believe you said Dexter is fading. Best show on TV!!! I like Boardwalk Empire as well, gotta check out the Walking Dead. So you don't have any plays for this Strikeforce Card?

[illmatick]

sorry, nothing for strikeforce, I liked spiritwolf and Wilcox but stayed away.


updated plays..... wasn't impressed with the sergio/williams weigh-in...buying out of my Martinez bet



1.Sergio Martinez -115 x1

UFC:

1.Aaron Simpson +135 x.5
2.Dennis Hallman +130 x.75 +110 x.5
3.Tyson Griffin -205 x.75
4.B.J Penn -155 x2.25
5.Matt Brown +125 x.5
6.Lauzon +190 x.25

Hughes wins by 3 round decision +265 x.5
Lauzon wins by 3 round decision +437 x.25

Paul Williams -110 x2
Williams wins by 12 rnd decision +208 x.25

not liking what I'm seeing in the Griffen line, appears to suggest Griffen is going to get out wrestled, might just end up buying out.

[raidersfan]

sorry, nothing for strikeforce, I liked spiritwolf and Wilcox but stayed away.


updated plays..... wasn't impressed with the sergio/williams weigh-in...buying out of my Martinez bet



1.Sergio Martinez -115 x1

UFC:

1.Aaron Simpson +135 x.5
2.Dennis Hallman +130 x.75 +110 x.5
3.Tyson Griffin -205 x.75
4.B.J Penn -155 x2.25
5.Matt Brown +125 x.5
6.Lauzon +190 x.25

Hughes wins by 3 round decision +265 x.5
Lauzon wins by 3 round decision +437 x.25

Paul Williams -110 x2
Williams wins by 12 rnd decision +208 x.25

not liking what I'm seeing in the Griffen line, appears to suggest Griffen is going to get out wrestled, might just end up buying out.

I was leaning on paul williams for tonight, but would like to see the weight ins. Any link?

[illmatick]

weigh ins are up on youtube.

added

Brown +115 x.75

[Vaughany]

Good luck tonight Ill, let's hope Hallman gets us off to a good start! I know its not big units but what are ur reasons for Brown pick? I've stayed away from betting on either to win and just gone for the over 2.5 and to decision props. Im a big Matt Brown fan and have bet against him before and lost in the Wilks fight, and bet on him against Lytle and lost so he's one I should avoid betting on!

[illmatick]

Brown's high volume punch output usually scores well the judges, I see a 29-28 fight where Brown comes on strong late. also like the possibility of him catching Foster off of his back.... Foster/ Lytle was more than a fluke sub. Brown not quite the grappler as Lytle but still think he threatens Foster with his guard .

Foster's best shot will come in the first round imo.

I also wouldn't put much stock in his win over Brock Larson, Larson has been on the decline since his previous loss to Mike Peirce, recently losing to Tarec as well.

being competitive early against Rick Story is probably his greatest achievement in the UFC, Forrest Petz didn't have much to offer.

[lasker]

BOL Ill!

[illmatick]

thanks Lasker, bol!

not liking what I'm seeing in the Griffen line, appears to suggest Griffen is going to get out wrestled, might just end up buying out.

, early .75 unit loss

pinny was more than welcoming Griffen money right after the weigh-ins.should have been the only thing I needed to see.

few long shot parlays still open with Lentz

[lasker]

from all the play-by-play reports I've seen, the decision was a robbery (or at least highly questionable). Sherdog and a number of other sites scored it 30-27 Griffin, as did one of the judges.

[Chairib]

I think the Brown/Foster fight could be fotn. I'm not very sure whose going to win this one, it could go either way in my eyes.

[illmatick]

I think the Brown/Foster fight could be fotn. I'm not very sure whose going to win this one, it could go either way in my eyes.

I thought Brown looked good early, left his neck out for his 3rd straight submission loss.

[illmatick]

sorry, nothing for strikeforce, I liked spiritwolf and Wilcox but stayed away.


updated plays..... wasn't impressed with the sergio/williams weigh-in...buying out of my Martinez bet



1.Sergio Martinez -115 x1

UFC:

1.Aaron Simpson +135 x.5
2.Dennis Hallman +130 x.75 +110 x.5
3.Tyson Griffin -205 x.75
4.B.J Penn -155 x2.25
5.Matt Brown +125 x.5
6.Lauzon +190 x.25

Hughes wins by 3 round decision +265 x.5
Lauzon wins by 3 round decision +437 x.25

Paul Williams -110 x2
Williams wins by 12 rnd decision +208 x.25

not liking what I'm seeing in the Griffen line, appears to suggest Griffen is going to get out wrestled, might just end up buying out.

had my worst night in over two months. changing my pick to williams is what did me in. I've bet against Paul in every fight since the first match with Quintana.

should be around a -1.15 unit loss

[Chairib]

I thought Brown looked good early, left his neck out for his 3rd straight submission loss.

Foster's got a lot of power and I was really unsure how Brown would handle it.

[illmatick]

Froch wins by 12 rnd decision +271 x.75
Abraham wins in round 1-6 +446 .25

hoping Froch can put enough rounds in the bank before Arthur opens up from his shell(usually not until the 4-5th), only concern is Arthur possibly starting off a little faster than usual considering he's coming off of his first career loss. Froch should have the chin to weather the late storm, didn't like the way he gassed a bit against Kesslar but I think he'll be a bit more reserved with his punches considering Arthur's counter-punching ability.

So i like Arthur to either knock him out sometime in the first half of the fight or Froch to take a close decision where he slightly out boxes abraham down the stretch .

might have a late play later tonight, thinking about "Not Marquez inside distance" at -129

[snake11eyes]

Froch wins by 12 rnd decision +271 x.75

Im liking this Froch by decision for almost 3-1.

[illmatick]

Froch wins by 12 rnd decision +271 x.75
Abraham wins in round 1-6 +446 .25

hoping Froch can put enough rounds in the bank before Arthur opens up from his shell(usually not until the 4-5th), only concern is Arthur possibly starting off a little faster than usual considering he's coming off of his first career loss. Froch should have the chin to weather the late storm, didn't like the way he gassed a bit against Kesslar but I think he'll be a bit more reserved with his punches considering Arthur's counter-punching ability. So i like Arthur to either knock him out sometime in the first half of the fight or Froch to take a close decision where he slightly out boxes abraham down the stretch . might have a late play later tonight, thinking about "Not Marquez inside distance" at -129

too easy

+1.75 units with Froch by UD, made slighly more with a few other plays I didn't have time to list

Im liking this Froch by decision for almost 3-1.

played it earlier in the week as well, I got +402 at 5dimes

[snake11eyes]

Nice call ill, I wish I had got in at +402 I would have put a couple more units on it.

[illmatick]

Nice call ill, I wish I had got in at +402 I would have put a couple more units on it.

thanks snake, the line actually moved back into the +340 range before the fight.

small action plays for tonight

FEMALE FIGHTER OF THE YEAR AWARD
MIESHA TATE +130x.25

K.O of the year
Machida/shogun EV x.25
RICH FRANKLIN VS CHUCK LIDDELL +900 to win around one unit

[illmatick]

lol, basically broke even last night..cashed on knockout of the year but lost the female award

Once I saw Tate shift into the betting favorite I swore that shit was rigged for her to win.

[illmatick]

Kyle Watson -160 x2
Aaron Wilkinson +125 x2
Jonathan Brookins -215 x1
Will Campuzano -135 x1
Matt Lindland +140 x.5
Nam Phan +115 x.5

plan on adding a few parlays with Antonio Silva.

[illmatick]

Kyle Watson -160 x2
Aaron Wilkinson +125 x2
Jonathan Brookins -215 x1
Will Campuzano -135 x1
Matt Lindland +140 x.5
Nam Phan +115 x.5

plan on adding a few parlays with Antonio Silva.

Wilkinson, Brookins and Watson all moving my way, potential arb opportunity with Watson...now up to -195

don't think Phan should be +145. 3rd round stoppage for phan is likely...Garcia doesn't have anything left past 2.

added

parlay x1.5
Antonio Silva -390
Dan Herderson -255

Jim Miller -110 x.75
Struve -160 x1
Grove +290 x.25

[Eccocide]

We have a lot in common this weekend. Hopefully thats a good thing lol.

[illmatick]

We have a lot in common this weekend. Hopefully thats a good thing lol.

usually that's a good thing , only pick we seem to disagree on is Watson.

added

Fredson Paixao -165..to win one unit

recap...

Kyle Watson -160 x2
Aaron Wilkinson +125 x2
Fredson Paixao -165 x1.65
Jonathan Brookins -215 x1
Will Campuzano -135 x1
Matt Lindland +140 x.5
Nam Phan +115 x.5
Grove +290 x.25

parlay x1.5
Antonio Silva -390
Dan Herderson -255

[Educ8d Degener8]

Glad to see you got Wilkinson as a dog. Like the value there, and he's EV now.

Ill -- for the life of me, I can't figure it out... why has Babalu been bet down?! I suppose his line was attractive enough to garner some action... but I just don't see a way for him to win this.

Babalu doesn't even seem confident in this interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=031OMQlB2I8

GL on your plays homez.

[illmatick]

1-3 Start to the night ...Watson my only cash so far.

not buying the babalu hype either edu, I think we might see some late money on Dan.

adding on to my original parlay
x1.5
Henderson -255
Silva-400


Grove +255 x.5

[lasker]

This McKenzie guy is something else. All his opponents know the guillotine attempts are coming, it's just about his only move, and yet they are completely helpless to prevent it.

[illmatick]

I was surprised how easily he took Wilkinson down, had him down in less than 10 seconds.

[illmatick]

don't think Phan should be +145. 3rd round stoppage for phan is likely...Garcia doesn't have anything left past 2.

[illmatick]

usually that's a good thing , only pick we seem to disagree on is Watson. recap...
Kyle Watson -160 x2
Aaron Wilkinson +125 x2
Fredson Paixao -165 x1.65
Jonathan Brookins -215 x1
Will Campuzano -135 x1
Matt Lindland +140 x.5
Nam Phan +115 x.5
Grove +290 x.25
parlay x1.5 Antonio Silva -390 Dan Herderson -255

1-3 Start to the night ...Watson my only cash so far. not buying the babalu hype either edu, I think we might see some late money on Dan. adding on to my original parlay

x1.5 Henderson -255
Silva-400

Grove +255 x.5

finished ahead for the strikeforce card but took a nasty hit in the UFC...should be close to -3.5 units on the night.

[Vaughany]

Just read your preview on the main page for 124...good stuff...I agree that all of the main card fights except McCorkle Struve have big potential of going the distance. Miller/Oliveira has best chance I think of going the distance tho.