UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Khabib (April 07, 2018)

[JIBBBY]

Forgive our friend Jibbby, he is a bit rusty. He was too busy posting and creating hate threads towards Immigrants, Black people and the homeless in the Saloon and players talk. Too much time spend with those hill billies. Happy the gifmaster is back amongst the martial artists.


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Thrilla stay in your lane please.. I cap multiple sports daily that's my job, I take short breaks and post in other threads every morning while capping for entertainment purposes mostly.. Takes the edge off.. Helps me think..

I post in every MMA event thread and always will.. I come in late now and copy and paste MMA MANIA write ups when they come out, once I get those in I then start capping the fights.. That's my deal and it works for me...

Hugo and others break it down just fine on these event threads so no need for me to come in early anymore.. They got it under control now..

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelims Part 1 -




145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Artem Lobov

Alex Caceres (13-11) — who at one point rode a five-fight unbeaten streak that included an upset submission of then-undefeated Sergio Pettis — is just 1-3 in his last four bouts and 3-6 in his last nine. Though he stopped Rolando Dy in Singapore, his last fight saw him overpowered by the debuting Wang Guan en route to a split decision loss.
He has scored five professional submission wins, though just once since 2012.
Losses in his first two UFC appearances were not enough to deter Artem Lobov (13-14-1), who defeated the hapless Chris Avila before upsetting Teruto Ishihara in Belfast. This was enough to set up a main event bout with Cub Swanson and subsequent showdown with Andre Fili, both of whom took wide decisions over “The Russian Hammer.”
As is standard for Lobov, he will give up a massive amount of reach; specifically, eight inches this time.
Despite seven years and 18 fights in UFC, Cacares has yet to put together his myriad talents into a cohesive game. He has lovely Brazilian jiu-jitsu that he can’t use because his wrestling is nonexistent and strong kicking that he doesn’t have the boxing to set up. Still, he really should win this fight — Lobov’s stubby arms and lack of speed ought to leave him at the mercy of Caceres’ long-range offense.
Lobov has surprised us before, though, but for all of Caceres’ faults, he can at least deal with someone who only knows how to plod forward and throw bombs. “Bruce Leroy” pieces up Lobov at range throughout the latter’s fruitless 15-minute chase.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Bec Rawlings vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith

Bec Rawlings (7-7) loss to Mizuki Inoue wasn’t enough to keep her off of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), though she wound up going one-and-done thanks to Tecia Torres. She is 2-4 in the organization itself, most recently falling to Jessica-Rose Clark by split decision in Sydney.
She will give up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-3).
Evans-Smith has spent the entirety of her five-fight UFC career at Bantamweight, where she has racked up a 2-3 record. Her 2017 campaign saw her lose a decision to Ketlen Vieira and tap to a Sarah Moras armbar despite being favored in both fights.
This will be her Flyweight debut.
These two have a combined 4-7 UFC record with one controversial decision win apiece (Rawlings against Seo Hee Ham and Evans-Smith against Marion Reneau). In other words, we’re not seeing either of these women in the title picture any time soon.
On paper, Evans-Smith’s wrestling chops give her the edge in the style match up, but she’s consistently failed to take down the majority of her opponents and at times seems reticent to even attempt level changes. That said, the cut to 125 pounds should give her a bit more of a strength advantage to work with and Rawlings is a non-factor off of her back.
While Evans-Smith is more than capable of throwing away the fight and trading with the brawl-happy Rawlings, even a slightly committed pursuit of the takedown should get her the win.
Prediction: Evans-Smith via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez

Devin Clark (8-2) — one of the first products of “Lookin’ for a Fight” to enter the Octagon — started his UFC career at Middleweight before a knockout loss to Alex Nicholson sent him back to 205 pounds. There, “Brown Bear” picked up decisions over Josh Stansbury and Jake Collier, only to fall into a bizarre standing choke against Jan Blachowicz in the latter’s native Poland.
He stands three inches shorter than the 6’3” Mike Rodriguez (9-2).
Rather than “Lookin’ for a Fight,” Rodriguez joined UFC via “Tuesday Night Contender Series” after racking up three consecutive first-round knockouts. He made it four with a flying knee finish of Jamelle Jones on episode five.
Of his nine finishes, seven have come in the first round.
Even with Jan Blachowicz’s recent resurgence, Clark’s performance against him was cause for concern. He seemed to have no idea how to set up his strikes or takedowns against a rangy opponent.
Considering he’ll give up eight inches of reach to Rodriguez, that’s an issue.
Rodriguez’s takedown defense looked improved in his win over Jones and his long-distance striking, predicated on a strong southpaw one-two combination, figures to be a cut above Clark’s boxing. Unless Clark has greatly improved his takedown entries and found less-awkward ways to close the distance with strikes, Rodriguez puts him away with a knee sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Rodriguez via first-round knockout

145 lbs.: Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Kyle Bochniak

Zabit Magomedsharipov (14-1) has emerged as perhaps the top prospect in the sport, scoring finishes in his last eight fights. His two UFC appearances saw him choke out Mike Santiago and Sheymon Moraes, earning him a pair of “Performance of the Night” bonuses.
His 12 finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Kyle Bochniak (8-2) first joined UFC on short notice, losing a competitive decision to Charles Rosa in the latter’s native Boston. After splitting bouts with Enrique Barzola and Jeremy Kenny, “Crash” scored a mild upset of “Tuesday Night Contender Series” product Brandon Davis in January.
He stands six inches shorter than Magomedsharipov at 5’7.”
This is a step sideways for Magomedsharipov, and as much as I enjoy seeing him in action, the man is ready for someone in the Top 20. Bochniak’s no joke, but there is nothing about his game that will trouble Magomedsharipov. In addition to that absurd height advantage, Magomedsharipov is the better kickboxer, wrestler and submission artist by a serious margin.
The only real speculation to be done is about Magomedsharipov’s exact method of victory. I say we get something like his fight with Santiago, wherein he shows off some fancy moves on the feet before cratering Bochniak’s 66 percent takedown defense and locking up a rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Magomedsharipov via second-round submission

[JIBBBY]

In addition to Max Holloways other issues going into this fight.. Consider this also...

Max Holloway facing brutal weight cut ahead of UFC 223, wanted Khabib fight at welterweight

80 comments


By Jesse Holland Apr 3, 2018, 9:42am EDT


If you thought UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway was going to wake up on Friday morning, take a shit on the way to the UFC 223 weigh ins and easily hit the 155-pound mark, I’m sorry to report that “Blessed” is in for a pretty rough weak.
Which is probably why the Hawaiian wanted his pay-per-view (PPV) main event against Khabib Nurmagomedov, held this Saturday night (April 7, 2018) inside Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., to be contested at welterweight.

[Shagdogy]

Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez:

Clark is not a finisher. He has shown a pretty good chin in his past 3 fights despite continuing to keep his head up high in exchanges and being pretty hittable. I expect him to fight a cautious, maybe even tentative fight against the exceptional length of Rodriguez. He struggled with the long left leg of Blachowicz in particular and could not really work his TD game which caused him to be quite tentative closing the distance and he threw a number of non-committal entrances out there before finally shooting a low shot from long range that Blach stuffed easily and then reversed. He has some solid skills... good speed/athleticism, strong double legs, good cardio/motor... but none of those positive traits lead to big finishes.

Rodriguez is definitely a finisher (9 wins all by stoppage) but his level of competition has been pretty terrible. Outside of flying knee walk-offs, he doesn't seem to have one punch KO power in his hands, but he has ridiculous length, good volume, and decent striking variety. It's hard to find too much in terms of footage on Rodriguez but he struggled to defend the TDs of Hooben when he dropped down in the clinch and grabbed one or both legs. In other highlights he looks to get a bit sloppy when he gets aggressive and can be taken down easily as a result, although he did appear to have curbed that habit against Jones on contender series.

All things considered, I think the over 1.5 at -150 might be a pretty solid play in this fight. I expect Clark to be very cautious in his entrances having seen Rodriguez cue up that huge flying knee to keep the double leg of Jamelle Jones at bay. I think Clark will be pretty hittable, but his chin looked solid in his past 3 fights after his lone KO loss to Nicholson in his debut. Clark tends to play an all the way in/all the way out game, and I believe with the range of Rodriguez he will look to continue that with a special amount of caution. This will leave Rodriguez only a few opportunities to catch Clark either as he closes distance or inside the clinch if he stuffs the TD attempts. If Clark does land the Tds, hes not particularly scary in top position and Rodriguez should be able to survive stretches of time there. Basically, betting the over just really means you're betting against the quick KO finish by Rodriguez IMO, because if Clark is having success, he's likely grinding in the clinch or in top position. If he's not having success, then I imagine he's staying very far outside and fighting a very tentative fight, still trying to limit Rodriguez's opportunities to land the KO.

That said, I do think this fight has that feel where Clark will be winning the fight all the way up to the point where he loses the fight. I think Rodriguez is much more dangerous than Clark and will eventually hurt him with something, but I think it can make it past the halfway point of round 2.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

[Thor4140]

I follow him on Twitter and occasionally listen to his weekly live chat show and post-fight recaps. He is a bit of a douche, but he is in my rotation of analysts (Slack, BJJ Scout) that know a lot more about MMA than myself and provide a more eloquent insight.

Seems like every time i turn him on the show is all about him. When it is mma talk it is pretty good but that is like ten minutes out of the hour

[Thor4140]

In addition to Max Holloways other issues going into this fight.. Consider this also...

Max Holloway facing brutal weight cut ahead of UFC 223, wanted Khabib fight at welterweight

80 comments


By Jesse Holland Apr 3, 2018, 9:42am EDT


If you thought UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway was going to wake up on Friday morning, take a shit on the way to the UFC 223 weigh ins and easily hit the 155-pound mark, I’m sorry to report that “Blessed” is in for a pretty rough weak.
Which is probably why the Hawaiian wanted his pay-per-view (PPV) main event against Khabib Nurmagomedov, held this Saturday night (April 7, 2018) inside Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., to be contested at welterweight.

i told u guys he has an awful time making 145. His management team is the same as TBK (sucker punch). He will eventually be a 155er. I laugh when i keep hearing about this huge size advantage Khabib has.

[Thor4140]

In addition to Max Holloways other issues going into this fight.. Consider this also...

Max Holloway facing brutal weight cut ahead of UFC 223, wanted Khabib fight at welterweight

80 comments


By Jesse Holland Apr 3, 2018, 9:42am EDT


If you thought UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway was going to wake up on Friday morning, take a shit on the way to the UFC 223 weigh ins and easily hit the 155-pound mark, I’m sorry to report that “Blessed” is in for a pretty rough weak.
Which is probably why the Hawaiian wanted his pay-per-view (PPV) main event against Khabib Nurmagomedov, held this Saturday night (April 7, 2018) inside Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., to be contested at welterweight.

Jibby some of those comments on that site are lol.

[blazes_bff]

i told u guys he has an awful time making 145. His management team is the same as TBK (sucker punch). He will eventually be a 155er. I laugh when i keep hearing about this huge size advantage Khabib has.

On the Anik and Florian podcast, Kenflo said Max told him that he'll be fighting at Welterweight, and eventually Middleweight before his career is over.

It's gonna be a brutal weight cut, and tough fight, especially with 6 days notice. But I'll take the best 145er at +400 all day.

[Thor4140]

On the Anik and Florian podcast, Kenflo said Max told him that he'll be fighting at Welterweight, and eventually Middleweight before his career is over.

It's gonna be a brutal weight cut, and tough fight, especially with 6 days notice. But I'll take the best 145er at +400 all day.

You can take him but i sure as hell wont but i wont lay those big odds on the eagle either

[Thor4140]

I think it will be a good fight if the ankle is healthy. If his ankle is a problem he has no shot.

[turbozed]

Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez:

Clark is not a finisher. He has shown a pretty good chin in his past 3 fights despite continuing to keep his head up high in exchanges and being pretty hittable. I expect him to fight a cautious, maybe even tentative fight against the exceptional length of Rodriguez. He struggled with the long left leg of Blachowicz in particular and could not really work his TD game which caused him to be quite tentative closing the distance and he threw a number of non-committal entrances out there before finally shooting a low shot from long range that Blach stuffed easily and then reversed. He has some solid skills... good speed/athleticism, strong double legs, good cardio/motor... but none of those positive traits lead to big finishes.

Rodriguez is definitely a finisher (9 wins all by stoppage) but his level of competition has been pretty terrible. Outside of flying knee walk-offs, he doesn't seem to have one punch KO power in his hands, but he has ridiculous length, good volume, and decent striking variety. It's hard to find too much in terms of footage on Rodriguez but he struggled to defend the TDs of Hooben when he dropped down in the clinch and grabbed one or both legs. In other highlights he looks to get a bit sloppy when he gets aggressive and can be taken down easily as a result, although he did appear to have curbed that habit against Jones on contender series.

All things considered, I think the over 1.5 at -150 might be a pretty solid play in this fight. I expect Clark to be very cautious in his entrances having seen Rodriguez cue up that huge flying knee to keep the double leg of Jamelle Jones at bay. I think Clark will be pretty hittable, but his chin looked solid in his past 3 fights after his lone KO loss to Nicholson in his debut. Clark tends to play an all the way in/all the way out game, and I believe with the range of Rodriguez he will look to continue that with a special amount of caution. This will leave Rodriguez only a few opportunities to catch Clark either as he closes distance or inside the clinch if he stuffs the TD attempts. If Clark does land the Tds, hes not particularly scary in top position and Rodriguez should be able to survive stretches of time there. Basically, betting the over just really means you're betting against the quick KO finish by Rodriguez IMO, because if Clark is having success, he's likely grinding in the clinch or in top position. If he's not having success, then I imagine he's staying very far outside and fighting a very tentative fight, still trying to limit Rodriguez's opportunities to land the KO.

That said, I do think this fight has that feel where Clark will be winning the fight all the way up to the point where he loses the fight. I think Rodriguez is much more dangerous than Clark and will eventually hurt him with something, but I think it can make it past the halfway point of round 2.

Anyone have any thoughts here?

Rodriguez seems like the type of debuting fighter I like to bet against: Mostly 1st round finishes, poor competition, only decision is a loss. This is especially concerning in a heavier weight division where competition at the regional level is sparse. It looks like Rodriguez does have a couple of wins in the 2nd round, but one of those guys was a 1-2 fighter, and the other is on a 3 fight losing streak at the regional level. He has a decision loss against a 1-0 fighter in his 3rd fight (which was only 2 years ago apparently).

I'm looking at the MMA stats and over 1.5 rounds at LHW is generally -ev at -10% ROI. However, when you add in a debuting fighter, the over 1.5 prop bet at LHW increases to 20%. The sample size is only 23 fights, but these numbers seem to incorporate the phenomenon of knockout artist getting to the UFC level and finding out they aren't able to finish as easily.

Devin's defense unfortunately looks a bit shaky. So the question is what is the more significant factor in Rodriguez blasting dudes early all the time: poor competition or just crazy timing? Unfortunately there's not really enough tape so we can't analyze exchanges to see if he really does have next level timing. We do know his competition has been bad, though. Devin's chin has held up since his debut, and we should remember that he was KO'd at 185 lbs. Who knows how much the weight cut and dehydration played into that KO loss. He hadn't been KO'd before that, and it came at a really odd angle, with Alex punching straight down and catching his chin.

I think the O1.5 looks good here but one thing we may be overlooking is Devin's finishing ability. We don't know how good or bad Rodriguez's ground game is. He may be like Galore Bofando and just be completely unable to escape mount. Looks like he trains at Lauzon's academy so I'm guessing he can't be that bad on the ground, but Devin did almost catch Nicholson with a head/arm choke.

Another thing to consider is whether Rodriguez is able to win a fight where he hasn't blasted his opponent early. The fight actually getting to the middle of the second round might mean Rodriguez is gassed and Devin taking over with his wrestling and experience and proven ability to win decisions.

So you're left with taking slightly shorter odds on Devin, which includes the possibility of a early finish for Devin by submission or GnP.

Or you pay the longer odds on Rodriguezthe over 1.5 rounds, which includes the possibility that Rodriguez finishes late in rd 2 or rd 3 and a Rodriguez decision.

I think the first option might be better. But maybe to decrease variance even further take a little bit of both.

Edit: Also, apparently Clark has been training with Jon Jones at Jacksons, so he may have put in a good amount of work against another lanky LHW (Rodriguez reach of 83" is nuts btw). Finally, Rodriguez apparently had a knee injury after his last fight that he had to rehab. No surgery required but any time off of training for someone new to the game isn't good.

[Shagdogy]

Rodriguez seems like the type of debuting fighter I like to bet against: Mostly 1st round finishes, poor competition, only decision is a loss. This is especially concerning in a heavier weight division where competition at the regional level is sparse. It looks like Rodriguez does have a couple of wins in the 2nd round, but one of those guys was a 1-2 fighter, and the other is on a 3 fight losing streak at the regional level. He has a decision loss against a 1-0 fighter in his 3rd fight (which was only 2 years ago apparently).

I'm looking at the MMA stats and over 1.5 rounds at LHW is generally -ev at -10% ROI. However, when you add in a debuting fighter, the over 1.5 prop bet at LHW increases to 20%. The sample size is only 23 fights, but these numbers seem to incorporate the phenomenon of knockout artist getting to the UFC level and finding out they aren't able to finish as easily.

Devin's defense unfortunately looks a bit shaky. So the question is what is the more significant factor in Rodriguez blasting dudes early all the time: poor competition or just crazy timing? Unfortunately there's not really enough tape so we can't analyze exchanges to see if he really does have next level timing. We do know his competition has been bad, though. Devin's chin has held up since his debut, and we should remember that he was KO'd at 185 lbs. Who knows how much the weight cut and dehydration played into that KO loss. He hadn't been KO'd before that, and it came at a really odd angle, with Alex punching straight down and catching his chin.

I think the O1.5 looks good here but one thing we may be overlooking is Devin's finishing ability. We don't know how good or bad Rodriguez's ground game is. He may be like Galore Bofando and just be completely unable to escape mount. Looks like he trains at Lauzon's academy so I'm guessing he can't be that bad on the ground, but Devin did almost catch Nicholson with a head/arm choke.

Another thing to consider is whether Rodriguez is able to win a fight where he hasn't blasted his opponent early. The fight actually getting to the middle of the second round might mean Rodriguez is gassed and Devin taking over with his wrestling and experience and proven ability to win decisions.

So you're left with taking slightly shorter odds on Devin, which includes the possibility of a early finish for Devin by submission or GnP.

Or you pay the longer odds on Rodriguezthe over 1.5 rounds, which includes the possibility that Rodriguez finishes late in rd 2 or rd 3 and a Rodriguez decision.

I think the first option might be better. But maybe to decrease variance even further take a little bit of both.

Edit: Also, apparently Clark has been training with Jon Jones at Jacksons, so he may have put in a good amount of work against another lanky LHW (Rodriguez reach of 83" is nuts btw). Finally, Rodriguez apparently had a knee injury after his last fight that he had to rehab. No surgery required but any time off of training for someone new to the game isn't good.

I’ve gone back and forth on a side and you’re right, don’t know if MRod has crazy timing or has just faced terrible competition. I do feel confident in my analysis of Clark’s chin since moving to LHW as well as his underwhelming clinch game and lack of danger in top position. Seems like he has a real hard time putting LHWs in bad spots and just tries to put some weight down on them.

I think Clark has a significant speed advantage so if MRod does rely on his timing he will have to be very sharp. More I think about this fight I may just lay off entirely but I do suspect that Mrod’s length will mean a tentative enough game plan from Clark that neither guy gets an early finish. Tough to call.

[turbozed]

I’ve gone back and forth on a side and you’re right, don’t know if MRod has crazy timing or has just faced terrible competition. I do feel confident in my analysis of Clark’s chin since moving to LHW as well as his underwhelming clinch game and lack of danger in top position. Seems like he has a real hard time putting LHWs in bad spots and just tries to put some weight down on them.

I think Clark has a significant speed advantage so if MRod does rely on his timing he will have to be very sharp. More I think about this fight I may just lay off entirely but I do suspect that Mrod’s length will mean a tentative enough game plan from Clark that neither guy gets an early finish. Tough to call.

In a situation like this where not much tape is out there, it's fair to be cautious. Still, it's not so bad to make an educated gamble based on archetypes. Is it possible that Rodriguez can light up the LHW division? Sure, but it doesn't seem very likely based on what we've seen of his skillset. Gets taken down easily and doesn't have the fastest hands. He does have one decision loss against a 1-0 fighter, so I think that indicates that at the very least he's not some preternatural talent, and that he maybe not very dangerous in the later parts of fights.

I just watched the CES 38 highlight and his opponent (the first guy he fought with a winning record outside of 1-0 guy) only had 4 days notice, and looked completely gassed early in the 2nd round. Despite his opponent looking like he was on empty, he was still taken down and won via triangle choke. In the CES 39 highlight we see a couple of seconds but Rodriguez is already on his back and when his opponent goes for the toe hold, he doesn't seem very fast to react to it.

Rodriguez is apparently a small LHW, weighing in at 192 lbs just a year and a half ago and 199 a couple of months later. That's really, really light and you wonder if he's cutting weight at all. This is a pretty big factor because Clark has some trouble taking down UFC level guys that are at least 10 lbs bigger than him (at least by looks). Now he just has to take down a regional level guy who is his same size that is easily taken down by other regional fighters. I think at even odds it might be worth the gamble given all the red flags on Rodriguez and how clear a path to victory Clark has.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelims Part 1 -




145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Artem Lobov

Alex Caceres (13-11) — who at one point rode a five-fight unbeaten streak that included an upset submission of then-undefeated Sergio Pettis — is just 1-3 in his last four bouts and 3-6 in his last nine. Though he stopped Rolando Dy in Singapore, his last fight saw him overpowered by the debuting Wang Guan en route to a split decision loss.
He has scored five professional submission wins, though just once since 2012.
Losses in his first two UFC appearances were not enough to deter Artem Lobov (13-14-1), who defeated the hapless Chris Avila before upsetting Teruto Ishihara in Belfast. This was enough to set up a main event bout with Cub Swanson and subsequent showdown with Andre Fili, both of whom took wide decisions over “The Russian Hammer.”
As is standard for Lobov, he will give up a massive amount of reach; specifically, eight inches this time.
Despite seven years and 18 fights in UFC, Cacares has yet to put together his myriad talents into a cohesive game. He has lovely Brazilian jiu-jitsu that he can’t use because his wrestling is nonexistent and strong kicking that he doesn’t have the boxing to set up. Still, he really should win this fight — Lobov’s stubby arms and lack of speed ought to leave him at the mercy of Caceres’ long-range offense.
Lobov has surprised us before, though, but for all of Caceres’ faults, he can at least deal with someone who only knows how to plod forward and throw bombs. “Bruce Leroy” pieces up Lobov at range throughout the latter’s fruitless 15-minute chase.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Bec Rawlings vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith

Bec Rawlings (7-7) loss to Mizuki Inoue wasn’t enough to keep her off of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), though she wound up going one-and-done thanks to Tecia Torres. She is 2-4 in the organization itself, most recently falling to Jessica-Rose Clark by split decision in Sydney.
She will give up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-3).
Evans-Smith has spent the entirety of her five-fight UFC career at Bantamweight, where she has racked up a 2-3 record. Her 2017 campaign saw her lose a decision to Ketlen Vieira and tap to a Sarah Moras armbar despite being favored in both fights.
This will be her Flyweight debut.
These two have a combined 4-7 UFC record with one controversial decision win apiece (Rawlings against Seo Hee Ham and Evans-Smith against Marion Reneau). In other words, we’re not seeing either of these women in the title picture any time soon.
On paper, Evans-Smith’s wrestling chops give her the edge in the style match up, but she’s consistently failed to take down the majority of her opponents and at times seems reticent to even attempt level changes. That said, the cut to 125 pounds should give her a bit more of a strength advantage to work with and Rawlings is a non-factor off of her back.
While Evans-Smith is more than capable of throwing away the fight and trading with the brawl-happy Rawlings, even a slightly committed pursuit of the takedown should get her the win.
Prediction: Evans-Smith via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez

Devin Clark (8-2) — one of the first products of “Lookin’ for a Fight” to enter the Octagon — started his UFC career at Middleweight before a knockout loss to Alex Nicholson sent him back to 205 pounds. There, “Brown Bear” picked up decisions over Josh Stansbury and Jake Collier, only to fall into a bizarre standing choke against Jan Blachowicz in the latter’s native Poland.
He stands three inches shorter than the 6’3” Mike Rodriguez (9-2).
Rather than “Lookin’ for a Fight,” Rodriguez joined UFC via “Tuesday Night Contender Series” after racking up three consecutive first-round knockouts. He made it four with a flying knee finish of Jamelle Jones on episode five.
Of his nine finishes, seven have come in the first round.
Even with Jan Blachowicz’s recent resurgence, Clark’s performance against him was cause for concern. He seemed to have no idea how to set up his strikes or takedowns against a rangy opponent.
Considering he’ll give up eight inches of reach to Rodriguez, that’s an issue.
Rodriguez’s takedown defense looked improved in his win over Jones and his long-distance striking, predicated on a strong southpaw one-two combination, figures to be a cut above Clark’s boxing. Unless Clark has greatly improved his takedown entries and found less-awkward ways to close the distance with strikes, Rodriguez puts him away with a knee sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Rodriguez via first-round knockout

145 lbs.: Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Kyle Bochniak

Zabit Magomedsharipov (14-1) has emerged as perhaps the top prospect in the sport, scoring finishes in his last eight fights. His two UFC appearances saw him choke out Mike Santiago and Sheymon Moraes, earning him a pair of “Performance of the Night” bonuses.
His 12 finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Kyle Bochniak (8-2) first joined UFC on short notice, losing a competitive decision to Charles Rosa in the latter’s native Boston. After splitting bouts with Enrique Barzola and Jeremy Kenny, “Crash” scored a mild upset of “Tuesday Night Contender Series” product Brandon Davis in January.
He stands six inches shorter than Magomedsharipov at 5’7.”
This is a step sideways for Magomedsharipov, and as much as I enjoy seeing him in action, the man is ready for someone in the Top 20. Bochniak’s no joke, but there is nothing about his game that will trouble Magomedsharipov. In addition to that absurd height advantage, Magomedsharipov is the better kickboxer, wrestler and submission artist by a serious margin.
The only real speculation to be done is about Magomedsharipov’s exact method of victory. I say we get something like his fight with Santiago, wherein he shows off some fancy moves on the feet before cratering Bochniak’s 66 percent takedown defense and locking up a rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Magomedsharipov via second-round submission

More coming in -

115 lbs.: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Felice Herrig

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) — Poland’s No. 2 alliterative Strawweight — went from 3-0 in UFC to 3-2 after one-sided losses to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. When UFC headed to Gdansk in Oct. 2017, however, she dominated Invicta veteran Jodie Esquibel to the hometown crowd’s delight.
She will give up an inch of height to “Lil’ Bulldog.”
Despite a 1-1 run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 and a 1-1 start to her UFC career, Felice Herrig (14-6) has emerged as a legitimate contender thanks to four consecutive upset victories. After handing Alexa Grasso and Justine Kish their first career defeats, Herrig faced fellow rising contender Cortney Casey in Dec. 2017, scraping out a split decision win in Michigan.
Four of her five stoppage wins have come by submission.
While Herrig’s skills are absolutely legit, there’s nothing in her arsenal that can really trouble Kowalkiewicz. Herrig does her best work on the mat, but she’ll struggle to get her Polish foe there with any consistency and lacks any real counter to Kowalkiewicz’s high-volume offense on the feet. Herrig isn’t even a sufficiently dangerous takedown artist to disrupt Kowalkiewicz’s striking.
That’s honestly the long and short of it. Herrig doesn’t have fight-changing power or an explosive double with which to short-circuit Kowalkiewicz’s advance. Kowalkiewicz scoots back toward title contention by shutting down Herrig’s grappling and outworking her on the feet.
Prediction: Kowalkiewicz via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Ray Borg vs. Brandon Moreno

A 5-1 run -- capped off by a decision over former No. 1-ranked Jussier Formiga — earned Ray Borg (11-3) a crack at Demetrious Johnson last October. Though Johnson willingly engaged Borg in the grappling, “The Tazmexican Devil” wound up on the wrong end of 2017’s “Submission of the Year,” a beautiful throw-to-armbar transition that drew the first tap of Borg’s career.
He has six professional wins by submission, including two that won UFC bonuses.
Brandon Moreno (14-4) went from being ranked No. 16 on TUF 24 to being on the verge of title contention thanks to three consecutive UFC victories, including “Performance of the Night”-winning chokes of Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz. These set up a main event slot opposite Sergio Pettis, who survived Moreno’s early grappling attack to take home a unanimous decision.
He will have three inches of height and an impressive seven inches of reach on Borg.
Moreno showed some major deficiencies in both his striking and wrestling against Pettis, and while Borg’s stand up isn’t particularly devastating, his takedown and scrambling prowess are top-of-the-line. If the fight hits the ground, it will be when and how Borg wants it to, and Moreno isn’t enough of a threat off of his back to give Borg cause for concern.
That’s the crux of the fight, really. Borg can hold his own on the feet and on the mat while switching between the two as needed. Moreno, meanwhile, has to make do with whatever Borg gives him. Borg dominates wherever the fight goes.
Prediction: Borg via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Joe Lauzonvs. Chris Gruetzemacher

It’s been more than 11 years since Joe Lauzon (27-14) debuted in UFC with a knockout of Jens Pulver. And even though he’s distinguished himself as one of this generation’s most entertaining fighters, he currently finds himself on a 1-3 skid. His last two bouts saw him start strong, but fade against Stevie Ray before suffering a 67-second knockout loss to Clay Guida, “The Carpenter’s” first (technical) knockout victory since 2008.
Seventeen of his 25 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Chris Gruetzemacher (13-3) reached the quarterfinals of TUF 22 before falling to Artem Lobov, but earned himself a spot at the Finale, where he defeated Team Conor McGregor’s Abner Lloveras by decision. He’s had a rough go of it since, tapping to Chas Skelly and Davi Ramos in his last two fights.
“Gritz” will give up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Lauzon.
If Lauzon can’t beat Gruetzemacher, I think he needs to either retire or ply his craft in Rizin, Bellator, or some other lesser organization. He’s obviously enormously skilled and preternaturally likeable, but he can’t keep gassing out after one great round and getting beaten senseless.
Gruetzemacher is a fighter he should be able to look amazing against. “Gritz” is a one-note wrestler with porous submission defense and no real stand up prowess to speak of. “Creepy Joe” can finish him wherever he wants, and despite being burned before, I say he does so before his gas tank empties.
Prediction: Lauzon via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Evan Dunham vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Undaunted by a 1-4 slump, Evan Dunham (18-6-1) enters the cage unbeaten in his last five fights dating back to 2015. After four consecutive wins, including an upset of Ross Pearson, Dunham survived a disastrous first round to force a draw with Beneil Dariush in Oct. 2017.
Six of his nine professional stoppage wins have come by submission.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (10-2) put his TUF: “Nations” loss to Chad Laprise behind him with wins in six of his next seven fights. His current three-fight streak includes a submission of Drew Dober and a split decision over rising American Top Team product Tony Martin.
“The Quebec Kid” replaces Mairbek Taisumov -- who once again ran into **** issues — on short notice.
Three losses from that Dunham slump came against Rafael dos Anjos (controversially), Donald Cerrone and Edson Barboza. In other words, Dunham is still a top-flight Lightweight with solid pressure boxing and one of the division’s most underrated wrestling games. As adept as Aubin-Mercier is with his judo and back control, he’ll struggle mightily to impose his preferred gameplan here.
T.J. Grant couldn’t keep Dunham down, Gleison Tibau couldn’t keep Dunham down, and Dariush couldn’t keep Dunham down. Aubin-Mercier’s willingness to step up on short notice comes back to bite him as Dunham shuts down his takedowns and wears him down with combination punching for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Dunham via unanimous decision

MMA sports writer Patrick Stumberg -

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 45-17

[Richard Clock]

T.J. Grant couldn’t keep Dunham down, Gleison Tibau couldn’t keep Dunham down, and Dariush couldn’t keep Dunham down. Aubin-Mercier’s willingness to step up on short notice comes back to bite him as Dunham shuts down his takedowns and wears him down with combination punching for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Dunham via unanimous decision
MMA sports writer Patrick Stumberg -

Hate to show bias, because I have money on OAM, but those fights with Tibau and TJ Grant were both over 5 years ago. Dunham is 36 now. Also, I question whether OAM fighting on short notice will really have an impact here. Dunham has as much time to prepare for OAM as OAM has to prepare for Dunham. OAM was supposed to fight last month and should still be in fighting shape.

[JIBBBY]

Hate to show bias, because I have money on OAM, but those fights with Tibau and TJ Grant were both over 5 years ago. Dunham is 36 now. Also, I question whether OAM fighting on short notice will really have an impact here. Dunham has as much time to prepare for OAM as OAM has to prepare for Dunham. OAM was supposed to fight last month and should still be in fighting shape.

I agree with ya.. I think that's a really tough fight to call.. I still don't know how to play it to be honest?.. Dunham by decision hedged OAM by submission maybe? Maybe fight goes the distance but the odds are jacked even on that....

I'm not seeing this fight up on the board for props? Hmmm? Straight line is still up though... Strange....

UFC 223 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Barclays Center - Brooklyn, New York - FS1
Sat 4/7		1801 Evan Dunham		-140	o2½ -300
8:00PM		1802 Olivier Aubin-Mercier		+120	u2½ +250

[Sanity Check]

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 45-17

Thx for always posting these btw. *Reposts on mmaforum.com*

Will +betpoints when 24h is up.

[JIBBBY]

Thx for always posting these btw. *Reposts on mmaforum.com*

Will +betpoints when 24h is up.

If the dude didn't have a solid winning record year after year I wouldn't post it up Sanity.. I read his write ups first then go off them and do my own capping.. When I'm on the fence on a fight I'll typically lean to what he picks.. I don't always agree with his picks though...

More basic info the better I say Sanity when capping fights... It can't hurt...

[turbozed]

If the dude didn't have a solid winning record year after year I wouldn't post it up Sanity.. I read his write ups first then go off them and do my own capping.. When I'm on the fence on a fight I'll typically lean to what he picks.. I don't always agree with his picks though...

More basic info the better I say Sanity when capping fights... It can't hurt...

Stumberg's write ups are pretty legit. It's clear he knows what he's talking about in each fight. Like Clock pointed out earlier though, he does miss a few details sometimes that make a big difference. But overall he is able to identify the broad outline of a fight, and give a reasonable explanation.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:
You know the drill. First correct response gets the bacon.

1. What is Max Holloway's UFC Record?

2. How many TUF/UFC (combined) Submissions does Rose Namajunas have?

3. How many TUF/UFC combined Submissions does Michael Chiesa have?

4. What is the unifying theme about all of Al Iaquinta's UFC Losses (be as specific as possible)?

5. How many UFC fights has Alex Caceres had?

[UncleChael]

We taking Mad Max Hugos?

[JIBBBY]

If I cared about bet points I'd try to work that Hugo.. Lol..
Nice of you to offer up the charity trivia bet point game.. Not the first time you did that.. RSPK!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

We taking Mad Max Hugos?

Oh yeah

[firekillex]

said i wouldnt do this again but im bored and seen it haha

1. What is Max Holloway's UFC Record?
15-3
2. How many TUF/UFC (combined) Submissions does Rose Namajunas have?
8 subs total
3. How many TUF/UFC combined Submissions does Michael Chiesa have?
11 subs
4. What is the unifying theme about all of Al Iaquinta's UFC Losses (be as specific as possible)?
both were technical submissions and chokes
5. How many UFC fights has Alex Caceres had?
18 ufc fights +3 tuf fights

[Hugo de Naranja]

said i wouldnt do this again but im bored and seen it haha

1. What is Max Holloway's UFC Record?
15-3 CORRECT
2. How many TUF/UFC (combined) Submissions does Rose Namajunas have?
8 subs total INCORRECT
3. How many TUF/UFC combined Submissions does Michael Chiesa have?
11 subs INCORRECT
4. What is the unifying theme about all of Al Iaquinta's UFC Losses (be as specific as possible)?
both were technical submissions and chokes CORRECT
5. How many UFC fights has Alex Caceres had? CORRECT
18 ufc fights +3 tuf fights

Make sure you're only counting Ultimate Fighter and UFC Submissions for Namajunas and Chiesa. Everything else is correct.

[turbozed]

Here's my writeup for Mike Rodriguez vs. Devin Clark

Mike Rodriguez makes his debut at LHW against 4-fight UFC veteran Devin Clark and nobody seems to have a good feel for what's going to happen here. Most of this is due to the lack of fight footage available online of Rodriguez, who has fought in CES for most of his professional debut. CES is apparently very guarded about having their fight footage online. So even though Rodriguez has a good amount of KO finishes on his record, we're only able to catch a few glimpses of his fights online. Even in his Contender Series victory over Jamelle Jones, Rodriguez's biggest fight to date, we were only able to see 2 minutes of very low-volume action.

Striking:So what do we know about Mike Rodriguez? He's a very rangy southpaw fighter. At 6'4, and with 83" of reach, the man is built like Jon Jones, who we can be pretty confident in saying has a good build for the LHW division. He also has apparently a nice flying knee as this technique began the sequence of strikes that would finish Jamelle (it was really a well placed left hand on the ground that was the KO strike). He has finished at least one other fighter in his pro career with knees as well. 7 of his 9 victories have come via KO or TKO.

Maybe it shouldn't be surprising that Rodriguez likes to throw flying knees. His introduction to martial arts was through Muay Thai, and he throws a lot of traditional techniques from that style including knees and a push kicks (thip). He's also borrowed an oblique kick from fellow LHW body-type brother Jon Jones, which he spammed often in his Contender Series win. True to a more traditional Muay Thai style, he doesn't seem too interested in boxing in the pocket, instead landing straight 1-2s at range. He will load up on power hooks if he senses a finish, like he did against John Poppie against a gassed John Poppie at CES 38.

Devin Clark we know a lot more about. A smaller LHW that has fought comfortably at 185 as well, Clark is a wrestler with serviceable striking at best. Thought not very comfortable in the pocket, and sometimes leaving his chin in the air exiting exchanges, Clark does make the striking work for his style. He's often right outside of his opponent's range, and comes blitzing in with straight punches or an overhand right. He mixes in a few kicks for good measure.

It's pretty clear that Clark doesn't want to stay on the feet striking with Rodriguez for long. Clark was KO'd by a very awkward downward punch to the tip of his chin by Alex Nicholson in his UFC debut. However, prior to this he had never suffered a KO loss. It's important to note that that fight was his only bout at 185 lbs, and the weight cut looked to definitely affect his cardio and perhaps may have affected his chin as well.

Grappling:Luckily for Clark, is well aware that his strength is in the grappling department, and his striking game revolves around it. From distance, he'll feint level changes and takedowns often. He's generally throwing enough volume to be somewhat of a threat, but what he really wants is to draw out a counter or get his opponents off balanced enough to land a takedown. Clark has a good power double leg, and is persistent in trying for takedowns despite sometimes mistiming and failing. He's tenacious if he does get a bodylock, and can generally out-hustle his opponents in the clinch and during scrambles.

As the smaller fighter at LHW, Clark isn't interested in controlling his opponent at all times. For example, Clark doesn't have the best top control on the mat, allowing his opponents to power up to their feet often. However, Clark has explained in interviews that sometimes he'll use these positions to take breaks, and regain his power. As a result, we see a lot of opponents get up to their feet only to be returned to the mat.

The few glimpses of grappling work we've seen out of Rodriguez should throw up some red flags. Against Alec Hooben less than a year ago, Rodriguez was unable to maintain striking distance and allowed Hooben to clinch and push him up to the cage and bully him. He was taken down without much resistance and Hooben was in a prime position to take Rodriguez's back but opted instead to go for the truck position (possibly trying to attempt a twister?). This was a mistake which resulted in Rodriguez being in position to just throw easy punches at Hooben's face. Hooben is a 5-5 fighter.

In CES 39, Kevin Haley was able to get Rodriguez down in the center of the mat within 1 minute of the fight before submitting Rodriguez via heel hook. And an absurdly gassed middleweight John Poppie coming in to fight on 4 days notice was able to take Rodriguez down at CES 38 before tapping to a triangle choke.

While Rodriguez was able to stuff a takedown against Jamelle Jones, it's very likely that he will have a much bigger problem on his hands against the wrestling of Devin Clark. Clark's wrestling at the UFC has not looked dominant, but bear in mind that he appears to have a size disadvantage against the likes of larger LHWs like Jan Blachowicz. However, Rodriguez is not a large LHW himself, having made middleweight 2 years ago, and having fought at 192 lbs and 199 lbs early in 2017. Clark has been winning grappling exchanges with much larger UFC caliber talent. There's a lot of reasons to think that he may have his way with a similarly sized opponent who has trouble with regional level wrestling.

Other factors:Besides wrestling, strength of competition is another red flag against Rodriguez. Aside from the aforementioned MW on 4 days notice John Poppie, Rodriguez has not had a victory against an opponent with a winning record until Hooben less than a year ago. That's 3 years and 10 fights worth of poor competition. While good for his confidence, Rodriguez is an untested product. And the only time he has gone 3 rounds was in his 3rd professional fight where he lost to a 1-0 fighter. Of course, LHW is not a division rich in talent, but it's hard to see that sort of scheduling as instilling the toughness necessary to compete at the higher levels in the UFC.

Rodriguez trains at Lauzon MMA so he's probably been working on his grappling and bjj. However, there seems to be a dearth of larger guys there and he appears to be the biggest guy in the gym. Clark, on the other hand, has been training at JW often in the past year and a half. And he's been training with probably the perfect training partner to simulate Rodriguez's length, reach, and distance striking. Yes, that's Jon Jones, who we've now mentioned 3 times in this writeup. Clark was the guy prepping Jones for the 2nd DC fight, and now Clark has put in work with Jones in prepping for this fight.

The above was a long way of saying that this is likely going to be a matchup where the debuting striker runs into a much higher level of wrestling than he's ever seen, and won't be able to do much. Rodriguez will likely need to time a perfect strike and get a KO or it looks like Clark is going to be controlling and sapping him for long stretches of time. Can Rodriguez do it? Yes, but the odds are a lot less likely than the even odds on the fight, if we can trust the little tape that is out there. Even if there was no tape, the Rd1 can crusher that has never seen a tough fight is generally an overvalued system fade regardless.

[Richard Clock]

Here's my writeup for Mike Rodriguez vs. Devin Clark

Mike Rodriguez makes his debut at LHW against 4-fight UFC veteran Devin Clark and nobody seems to have a good feel for what's going to happen here. Most of this is due to the lack of fight footage available online of Rodriguez, who has fought in CES for most of his professional debut. CES is apparently very guarded about having their fight footage online. So even though Rodriguez has a good amount of KO finishes on his record, we're only able to catch a few glimpses of his fights online. Even in his Contender Series victory over Jamelle Jones, Rodriguez's biggest fight to date, we were only able to see 2 minutes of very low-volume action.

Striking:So what do we know about Mike Rodriguez? He's a very rangy southpaw fighter. At 6'4, and with 83" of reach, the man is built like Jon Jones, who we can be pretty confident in saying has a good build for the LHW division. He also has apparently a nice flying knee as this technique began the sequence of strikes that would finish Jamelle (it was really a well placed left hand on the ground that was the KO strike). He has finished at least one other fighter in his pro career with knees as well. 7 of his 9 victories have come via KO or TKO.

Maybe it shouldn't be surprising that Rodriguez likes to throw flying knees. His introduction to martial arts was through Muay Thai, and he throws a lot of traditional techniques from that style including knees and a push kicks (thip). He's also borrowed an oblique kick from fellow LHW body-type brother Jon Jones, which he spammed often in his Contender Series win. True to a more traditional Muay Thai style, he doesn't seem too interested in boxing in the pocket, instead landing straight 1-2s at range. He will load up on power hooks if he senses a finish, like he did against John Poppie against a gassed John Poppie at CES 38.

Devin Clark we know a lot more about. A smaller LHW that has fought comfortably at 185 as well, Clark is a wrestler with serviceable striking at best. Thought not very comfortable in the pocket, and sometimes leaving his chin in the air exiting exchanges, Clark does make the striking work for his style. He's often right outside of his opponent's range, and comes blitzing in with straight punches or an overhand right. He mixes in a few kicks for good measure.

It's pretty clear that Clark doesn't want to stay on the feet striking with Rodriguez for long. Clark was KO'd by a very awkward downward punch to the tip of his chin by Alex Nicholson in his UFC debut. However, prior to this he had never suffered a KO loss. It's important to note that that fight was his only bout at 185 lbs, and the weight cut looked to definitely affect his cardio and perhaps may have affected his chin as well.

Grappling:Luckily for Clark, is well aware that his strength is in the grappling department, and his striking game revolves around it. From distance, he'll feint level changes and takedowns often. He's generally throwing enough volume to be somewhat of a threat, but what he really wants is to draw out a counter or get his opponents off balanced enough to land a takedown. Clark has a good power double leg, and is persistent in trying for takedowns despite sometimes mistiming and failing. He's tenacious if he does get a bodylock, and can generally out-hustle his opponents in the clinch and during scrambles.

As the smaller fighter at LHW, Clark isn't interested in controlling his opponent at all times. For example, Clark doesn't have the best top control on the mat, allowing his opponents to power up to their feet often. However, Clark has explained in interviews that sometimes he'll use these positions to take breaks, and regain his power. As a result, we see a lot of opponents get up to their feet only to be returned to the mat.

The few glimpses of grappling work we've seen out of Rodriguez should throw up some red flags. Against Alec Hooben less than a year ago, Rodriguez was unable to maintain striking distance and allowed Hooben to clinch and push him up to the cage and bully him. He was taken down without much resistance and Hooben was in a prime position to take Rodriguez's back but opted instead to go for the truck position (possibly trying to attempt a twister?). This was a mistake which resulted in Rodriguez being in position to just throw easy punches at Hooben's face. Hooben is a 5-5 fighter.

In CES 39, Kevin Haley was able to get Rodriguez down in the center of the mat within 1 minute of the fight before submitting Rodriguez via heel hook. And an absurdly gassed middleweight John Poppie coming in to fight on 4 days notice was able to take Rodriguez down at CES 38 before tapping to a triangle choke.

While Rodriguez was able to stuff a takedown against Jamelle Jones, it's very likely that he will have a much bigger problem on his hands against the wrestling of Devin Clark. Clark's wrestling at the UFC has not looked dominant, but bear in mind that he appears to have a size disadvantage against the likes of larger LHWs like Jan Blachowicz. However, Rodriguez is not a large LHW himself, having made middleweight 2 years ago, and having fought at 192 lbs and 199 lbs early in 2017. Clark has been winning grappling exchanges with much larger UFC caliber talent. There's a lot of reasons to think that he may have his way with a similarly sized opponent who has trouble with regional level wrestling.

Other factors:Besides wrestling, strength of competition is another red flag against Rodriguez. Aside from the aforementioned MW on 4 days notice John Poppie, Rodriguez has not had a victory against an opponent with a winning record until Hooben less than a year ago. That's 3 years and 10 fights worth of poor competition. While good for his confidence, Rodriguez is an untested product. And the only time he has gone 3 rounds was in his 3rd professional fight where he lost to a 1-0 fighter. Of course, LHW is not a division rich in talent, but it's hard to see that sort of scheduling as instilling the toughness necessary to compete at the higher levels in the UFC.

Rodriguez trains at Lauzon MMA so he's probably been working on his grappling and bjj. However, there seems to be a dearth of larger guys there and he appears to be the biggest guy in the gym. Clark, on the other hand, has been training at JW often in the past year and a half. And he's been training with probably the perfect training partner to simulate Rodriguez's length, reach, and distance striking. Yes, that's Jon Jones, who we've now mentioned 3 times in this writeup. Clark was the guy prepping Jones for the 2nd DC fight, and now Clark has put in work with Jones in prepping for this fight.

The above was a long way of saying that this is likely going to be a matchup where the debuting striker runs into a much higher level of wrestling than he's ever seen, and won't be able to do much. Rodriguez will likely need to time a perfect strike and get a KO or it looks like Clark is going to be controlling and sapping him for long stretches of time. Can Rodriguez do it? Yes, but the odds are a lot less likely than the even odds on the fight, if we can trust the little tape that is out there. Even if there was no tape, the Rd1 can crusher that has never seen a tough fight is generally an overvalued system fade regardless.

I watched Rod's fights vs Hooben and Jones. Obviously, not a whole lot to be gleaned based on the Jones fight. It was surprising to see how easily the smaller and less athletic Hooben was able to close distance and force clinch exchanges. And when in those clinch scenarios against the cage, it was perhaps more jarring to see how lost Rod looked in this position (never once fighting for an underhook or for hand control and conceding takedowns in the process). This was in May 2017, less than a year ago. Being at least competent in clinch exchanges against the cage (winning the underhooks/wrist control/control battle) is a basic requirement at the UFC level. Maybe I am being a little to hard on Rod based on a few minutes of fighting, but I tend to think he hasn't really been challenged there consistently in his MMA career. Meanwhile, Clark has been paying his dues against UFC level competition, albeit at the lower end and has a wrestling background.

My initial pre-tape study analysis didn't favor one fighter significantly: Similar overall records, with Rod having a 100% win finish % against weaker regional level comp, and Clark with a slightly lower quality perf %, but has paid his dues a little more against more sturdy comp recently. Clark's 53% strike accuracy suggests that he is judicious with his striking, using it with general effectiveness as a means to grab a hold of his opponent. Clark's junior collegiate wrestling experience suggests he is significantly more experienced in these clinch exchanges than Rod, who looked a little lost in that area based on my very limited film watching of him. I will have to watch some of Clark's recent fights, but I tend to agree with you here. Clark by decision opened at +350, which is little interesting. This is probably something I have to get over, but watching a fight in which you are rooting to go the distance is significantly less enjoyable.

[Teem]

Yeah I appreciate Stumberg's writeups as well. Big help for me, but ya I don't always agree with his picks or method of victory/round.

[Teem]

Here's a fun fact:

If you guys don't know who Ed Ruth is, he wrestled at Penn State and is known for being the best wrestler throughout the nation. He's a three-time NCAA collegiate wrestling champion from 2012-2014. He also competed at the 2014 world wrestling championships and the 2015 wrestling world cup. His wrestling pedigree and size are ridiculous. Keep in mind, US is stacked at / around his weight. Which is 185. He trains at AKA and apparently Khabib out wrestles him haha.

He's a huge prospect and signed with Bellator in 2016. He's 4-0 there, all by KO. Keep an eye on this guy. He's a warrior. Fights tomorrow.

[turbozed]

I will have to watch some of Clark's recent fights, but I tend to agree with you here. Clark by decision opened at +350, which is little interesting. This is probably something I have to get over, but watching a fight in which you are rooting to go the distance is significantly less enjoyable.

Clark Decision is a good way to go if you want to limit your exposure on this fight and still make some money. However, I'm not so sure that Clark can't finish Rodriguez here if there's a large disparity. Another fight that I thought would be a similar striker vs grappler matchup was Bofando vs Laprise. I only bet a bit on the ML and more on props. Bofando was even worse than I expected and was mounted and pounded out early in the 1st. I don't think that's going to happen to Rodriguez but who knows. The guy lost before to a toe hold in 1 minute not too long ago.

[JIBBBY]

I'm really thinking Khabib stops Max. 5 rounds is a very long time for someone to get beat up on the ground especially if Max struggles to make weight and isn't trained up.. When you look at Khabib's recent wins some are by sub and by KO so I think ya have to go ITD prop with Khabib.. Ref might stop it if Max is really getting pounded on..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Khabib-Nurmagomedov-56035

Odds are crap though.. Wanna see something funny compare these 2 props.. LOL...

1009 Nurmagomedov wins inside distance

-190

1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance

-190

[Richard Clock]

Clark Decision is a good way to go if you want to limit your exposure on this fight and still make some money. However, I'm not so sure that Clark can't finish Rodriguez here if there's a large disparity. Another fight that I thought would be a similar striker vs grappler matchup was Bofando vs Laprise. I only bet a bit on the ML and more on props. Bofando was even worse than I expected and was mounted and pounded out early in the 1st. I don't think that's going to happen to Rodriguez but who knows. The guy lost before to a toe hold in 1 minute not too long ago.

Agreed, I think this fight is volatile and can go a number of different ways. However, it seems like the public may be underestimating the chances this fight goes to a decision in particular, FGTD was bet up to +170 on 5D after opening at +135. I have been trying to stay away from defaulting to prop betting and limiting my exposure primarily to moneylines (keep it simple stupid), unless of course there is value that jumps out for me. However, I am struggling to pull the trigger on Clark or Caceres ML at minus odds. Will likely stay patient and see how these lines move, and be content with a no bet if I don't see a historic price I particualrly love.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Trivia points are still up for grabs for anyone interested

[firekillex]

Make sure you're only counting Ultimate Fighter and UFC Submissions for Namajunas and Chiesa. Everything else is correct.

i was counting TUF .... i counted total career + tuf thats why
rose is 3 tuf + 3 UFC = 6
chiesa is 1 TUF + 5 ufc= 6

[Hugo de Naranja]

We have a winner! Congrats fire.