UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Khabib (April 07, 2018)

[Richard Clock]

To me, these are are insane odds for a top P4P fighter, regardless of the size and strength disadvantage. Luke Thomas has banged this point home, but Max's general MMA IQ, particularly his ability to digest information during the fight and adjust his strategy between rounds is about as good as anyone's in MMA. He will have a clear advantage as a striker, and his grappling is equally as excellent. All over Max having a decent chance of pulling this off, and the oddsmakers have him winning about 23% of the time. Again, to me this is just insanity.

[turbozed]

I did analysis on this fight, and I am really close to pulling the trigger on OAM at plus odds. Want to see if this line moves in the +115 to +120 range, but am afraid it moves closer to pick em or even OAM as slight favorite. Line is at +105 on 5D curently. Few things I want to retort about your post, which I generally agree with:

- I am surprised you think that there is a significant striking advantage for Dunham. I disagree that Dunham's punching accuracy is great; he only lands 40% of his strikes according to UFC's stats, and just looking at the tape alone, it seems like Dunham relies on high output of strikes, rather than accuracy, to score points. Dunham is usually much more effective and lands more in the later rounds, as he has excellent cardio and durability and grinds down his opponent, and his opponent is usually much less fresh. He did have some success in boxing against Lauzon, but Lauzon has always been a limited striker. I honestly have not watched the Glenn or Pearson fights, so perhaps those fights would change my mind a bit about his boxing. He landed close to nothing on the feet in 3 rounds versus Dariush. Plus, Dunham doesn't have much diversity in his striking other than the occasional leg kick or high kick. Dunham may have success against OAM in the later rounds as OAM begins to slow down after clinch exchanges, but I am uneasy about this aspect of the matchup, as Dunham is 36 years and shop worn, while OAM is younger, only has 12 career fights, and has never been finished. I may have to go back to OAM's fight versus Diego Ferreira to confirm, but I don't believe that OAM's cardio/durability is much of an issue, if at all.

OAM might be the opposite type of striker, as you alluded too: more accurate, less volume, but more diversity with leg kicks and high kicks. People tend to downplay OAM's striking, which he seems to take exception to during post-fight interviews, and I think he has a point. He has generally been competitive with, and in some cases has outstruck, his recent opponents in Dober, Martin, and Diego Ferreira (all solid to above average strikers). He does have a blue belt in taekwondo. OAM just seems like an intelligent fighter generally who understands his striking limitations and is measured in his approach. I also like his footwork and management of distance in his striking.

- I also wouldn't be so sure in saying that Dunham is consistently faced and beaten tougher opponents. Dunham recent wins include Lauzon and Pearson, who are undeniably skilled and experienced, but older, shop worn and limited fighters. I question if Glenn is significantly better, if at all than Gouti or Drew Dober. Tony Martin is a highly skilled young fighter, and this was as impressive a win for OAM than any of Dunham's recent wins, despite it being by split decision. Fighting Dariush to a draw was undeniably impressive and a good feather in Dunham's cap in his mid 30s, but he came very close to being finished in the 1st round (are the odds significantly different if Dariush got the finish?) and I don't think we learned anything about Dunham from that fight that we didn't already know. He also showed a vulnerability to that lower calf kick, which OAM will likely aim for, and which could limit DUnham's already questionable mobility in later rounds.

Ultimately, I think the pathway by which Dunham consistently wins fights at age 36 is increasingly unsustainable. People tend to make the mistake of not projecting growth and decline in fighters and relying on past data when capping a fight. This could be an example of a fight where we can see one fighter takes a step back at age 36 and one fighter take a leap forward (age 29, only 12 professional fights, excellent athletic gifts, trains with a great camp and is clearly introspective with a high fight IQ) at the same time. With that being said, I think OAM can still beat Dunham if we see the same OAM and Dunham we have seen in previous fights.

I really don't disagree too much with any of this. You're seeing it pretty much how I see it except for a few technicalities.

Re: punching accuracy - Maybe 'accuracy' was the wrong word to use. I also agree that a lot of Dunham's strikes miss. But you gotta understand that sometimes punchers throw their first punch as a feeler or range finder. Dunham throws 3, 4, 5 punch combos. And he doesn't land the first 1 or 2 often. This will definitely lower his accuracy but the idea is that in that exchange he's able to land good offense. So instead of 'accuracy' maybe a better way of saying it is that in an exchange he will find success (he's never just whiffing for long periods at a time). I agree that OAM is more pin-point but he throws just 1 or 2 at a time. Like I said, OAM has gotten a lot better and he looked great in his last few fights. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the better of Dunham based on athleticism, improving, and simply being younger as Dunham is declining. I was commenting on entire-career arcs there.

I never said that Dunham has "consistently faced and beaten tougher opponents." This is a strawman and easily argued, as you did, against since his recent fights were against a slow Glenn, and the ghosts of Lauzon and Pearson. I literally said that he is lined as the favorite because his "performances over tougher competition." He pretty much beat RDA in Brazil so that heavily influences the public line on him. This was a long time ago, and things have changed, but it's still priced in whether we think it's accurate or not.

I also 100% agree with your assessment that Dunham can't have that many fights left in him. I was researching the ages of top 10 fighters in the UFC, and it looks like the average right now is 30.1 years old for the top 10 lightweights. 6 years from the average may be a whole standard deviation away.

I also don't recommend betting on Dunham. It's dog or pass for me and, like you, I might have fired if it got better for OAM. Those that want to bet Dunham should probably wait for a live line though because, as you noted yourself, he comes on stronger in later rounds when his opponent has become less mobile. I expect OAM to win the first round, so a good + number pre fight means you can always arb out during the fight as well.

[turbozed]

To me, these are are insane odds for a top P4P fighter, regardless of the size and strength disadvantage. Luke Thomas has banged this point home, but Max's general MMA IQ, particularly his ability to digest information during the fight and adjust his strategy between rounds is about as good as anyone's in MMA. He will have a clear advantage as a striker, and his grappling is equally as excellent. All over Max having a decent chance of pulling this off, and the oddsmakers have him winning about 23% of the time. Again, to me this is just insanity.

I agree with you, but I think the line has a lot to do with the fact that Max has been saying up until this week that he hasn't been training at all due to injury.

It's a big crapshoot. I'd max out +330 on a fully prepared Holloway. But a 0 camp Holloway has me passing. Hopefully, more info comes out on what he's been up to.

[Thor4140]

I agree with you, but I think the line has a lot to do with the fact that Max has been saying up until this week that he hasn't been training at all due to injury.

It's a big crapshoot. I'd max out +330 on a fully prepared Holloway. But a 0 camp Holloway has me passing. Hopefully, more info comes out on what he's been up to.

does anyone even know what injury Max had?

[Thor4140]

To me, these are are insane odds for a top P4P fighter, regardless of the size and strength disadvantage. Luke Thomas has banged this point home, but Max's general MMA IQ, particularly his ability to digest information during the fight and adjust his strategy between rounds is about as good as anyone's in MMA. He will have a clear advantage as a striker, and his grappling is equally as excellent. All over Max having a decent chance of pulling this off, and the oddsmakers have him winning about 23% of the time. Again, to me this is just insanity.

Luke Thomas threw in some MMA talk on his show? u might get ten minutes out of an hour from him. Tough when u only have a 45 min ride to work

[Richard Clock]

I really don't disagree too much with any of this. You're seeing it pretty much how I see it except for a few technicalities.

Re: punching accuracy - Maybe 'accuracy' was the wrong word to use. I also agree that a lot of Dunham's strikes miss. But you gotta understand that sometimes punchers throw their first punch as a feeler or range finder. Dunham throws 3, 4, 5 punch combos. And he doesn't land the first 1 or 2 often. This will definitely lower his accuracy but the idea is that in that exchange he's able to land good offense. So instead of 'accuracy' maybe a better way of saying it is that in an exchange he will find success (he's never just whiffing for long periods at a time). I agree that OAM is more pin-point but he throws just 1 or 2 at a time. Like I said, OAM has gotten a lot better and he looked great in his last few fights. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the better of Dunham based on athleticism, improving, and simply being younger as Dunham is declining. I was commenting on entire-career arcs there.

I never said that Dunham has "consistently faced and beaten tougher opponents." This is a strawman and easily argued, as you did, against since his recent fights were against a slow Glenn, and the ghosts of Lauzon and Pearson. I literally said that he is lined as the favorite because his "performances over tougher competition." He pretty much beat RDA in Brazil so that heavily influences the public line on him. This was a long time ago, and things have changed, but it's still priced in whether we think it's accurate or not.

I also 100% agree with your assessment that Dunham can't have that many fights left in him. I was researching the ages of top 10 fighters in the UFC, and it looks like the average right now is 30.1 years old for the top 10 lightweights. 6 years from the average may be a whole standard deviation away.

I also don't recommend betting on Dunham. It's dog or pass for me and, like you, I might have fired if it got better for OAM. Those that want to bet Dunham should probably wait for a live line though because, as you noted yourself, he comes on stronger in later rounds when his opponent has become less mobile. I expect OAM to win the first round, so a good + number pre fight means you can always arb out during the fight as well.

Sorry, misunderstood your "consistently faced and beater tougher comp" comment. I agree that the public perceives Dunham as having the better semi-recent resume of performances, just wanted to bang the point home that OAM has faced similarly tough competition himself, it just so happens that his tougher opponents (Diego Ferreira, Tony Martin, Chad Laprise) are not recognizable names like Dunham's opponents. As a side note, kind of sad to see how little Lauzon has left after watching his fight vs Dunham. Haven't capped that fight but Lauzon as a fave against most UFC LWs raises an eyebrow at this point.
Also, good point RE: Dunham's striking, but I still think he is generally much less successful against competent strikers despite the high volume of multi-strike combos. Dunham's recent success as a striker was vs Damm and Lauzon, who are very limited as strikers, and Glenn, whom I honestly don't know a whole lot about.

OAM back up to +120, so happy to put a unit down there. Will add more if the price gets higher, and may add on more closer to fight time if it remains in the +120 range.

[Richard Clock]

I agree with you, but I think the line has a lot to do with the fact that Max has been saying up until this week that he hasn't been training at all due to injury.

It's a big crapshoot. I'd max out +330 on a fully prepared Holloway. But a 0 camp Holloway has me passing. Hopefully, more info comes out on what he's been up to.

Perhaps this is an example of a supremely confident and determined athlete biting off more than he can chew, but I don't think Max would have taken this fight if he didn't feel like he had a good chance, or better yet, didn't feel like he would get embarrassed on a highly watched PPV. Maybe I am trying to justify this bet at this point, but I think the ONLY aspect of this matchup that at all justifies this line is a significantly injured Max. We just don't have much information on his status. I am willing to gamble at the current odds that he is 85% by fight night, which still may be enough to win.

[Richard Clock]

Luke Thomas threw in some MMA talk on his show? u might get ten minutes out of an hour from him. Tough when u only have a 45 min ride to work

I follow him on Twitter and occasionally listen to his weekly live chat show and post-fight recaps. He is a bit of a douche, but he is in my rotation of analysts (Slack, BJJ Scout) that know a lot more about MMA than myself and provide a more eloquent insight.

[firekillex]

great replacement
holloway gonna get whooped
mcgregor took this guy down and controlled him... no doubt it was years ago but khabib is going to maul this guy
holloway doesnt have submissions, he doesnt have 1ko power those are the only ways youre beating khabib

sucks this fight with ferguson and khabiib is legit cursed because i really wanted to see how ferguson would deal in the scrambles with khabib they made a great replacement fight with under a week left though so you cant be too mad... but id lean 90/10 khabib in this one even with all the momentum holloway has this is literally the worst style matchup for him possible

[PhoKing]

everyone please bet on max so khabib can get to -250

[Richard Clock]

great replacement
holloway gonna get whooped
mcgregor took this guy down and controlled him... no doubt it was years ago but khabib is going to maul this guy
holloway doesnt have submissions, he doesnt have 1ko power those are the only ways youre beating khabib

sucks this fight with ferguson and khabiib is legit cursed because i really wanted to see how ferguson would deal in the scrambles with khabib they made a great replacement fight with under a week left though so you cant be too mad... but id lean 90/10 khabib in this one even with all the momentum holloway has this is literally the worst style matchup for him possible

I don't know how you could watch Max's fights the last 5 years and think he has less than a 10% chance against anyone of a reasonable size difference from him. The idea that a brilliant MMA technician like Holloway will just concede Khabib's TD and get beat for 5 rounds seems like a stretch. Holloway's management of distance and defensive grappling (offensive too) is remarkably good. His cardio is near perfect and his striking is superior to Khabib's. This is far from an easy stylistic matchup for Khabib.

[Thrilla]

Wait for a better price if you are thinking of betting Max Holloway.

For sure short notice / injury + 25-0 undefeated hype.

[turbozed]

Sorry, misunderstood your "consistently faced and beater tougher comp" comment. I agree that the public perceives Dunham as having the better semi-recent resume of performances, just wanted to bang the point home that OAM has faced similarly tough competition himself, it just so happens that his tougher opponents (Diego Ferreira, Tony Martin, Chad Laprise) are not recognizable names like Dunham's opponents. As a side note, kind of sad to see how little Lauzon has left after watching his fight vs Dunham. Haven't capped that fight but Lauzon as a fave against most UFC LWs raises an eyebrow at this point.
Also, good point RE: Dunham's striking, but I still think he is generally much less successful against competent strikers despite the high volume of multi-strike combos. Dunham's recent success as a striker was vs Damm and Lauzon, who are very limited as strikers, and Glenn, whom I honestly don't know a whole lot about.

OAM back up to +120, so happy to put a unit down there. Will add more if the price gets higher, and may add on more closer to fight time if it remains in the +120 range.

All good. I also agree that OAM has fought quality but not very recognizable competition. CDF showed how good he is in his last fight, and Martin has always been a strong well rounded guy. Even before your post, I was contemplating betting OAM as a dog and reassessing after the first round. I think +120 might be good enough as well so I'll be riding with you on this.

The main thing I'll be looking for in this fight is the speed differential and the strength difference in the clinch. Dunham has always been stronger than his frame would suggest. And his hand speed and movement might be waning worse than we thought and this might be masked by how slow his recent opponents have been. Maybe he's been relying on veteran savvy to win.

Is there anything you're specifically looking for that's different? Cheers

[Hugo de Naranja]

great replacement
holloway gonna get whooped
mcgregor took this guy down and controlled him... no doubt it was years ago but khabib is going to maul this guy
holloway doesnt have submissions, he doesnt have 1ko power those are the only ways youre beating khabib

sucks this fight with ferguson and khabiib is legit cursed because i really wanted to see how ferguson would deal in the scrambles with khabib they made a great replacement fight with under a week left though so you cant be too mad... but id lean 90/10 khabib in this one even with all the momentum holloway has this is literally the worst style matchup for him possible

I'll take Max for some BPs then sir.

[turbozed]

I follow him on Twitter and occasionally listen to his weekly live chat show and post-fight recaps. He is a bit of a douche, but he is in my rotation of analysts (Slack, BJJ Scout) that know a lot more about MMA than myself and provide a more eloquent insight.

Yeah when it comes to guys that actually can provide some technical insight, you can do much worse than Luke Thomas.

Slack, Rubuesch, BJJ Scout, are top tier and can usually trust. Other guys on this level are Brendan Dorman and Cody Saftic.

Second tier guys I also have gained insight from are Luke Thomas, Patrick Wyman, Zane Simon (sometimes), TheWeasle, and a few others.

[turbozed]

Just finished tape on Caceres/Lobov and here's my analysis:
Artem Lobov vs Alex Caceres

Striking:

Like the Dunham/OAM matchup, this is going to be another southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Although in essence this just is a mirror of orthodox/orthodox, southpaws generally are less familiar with this matchup. Obviously, you can expect Lobov and Caceres to have prepared but, all things being equal, the unfamiliarity of the stance matchup might end up favoring Caceres here.

It's no secret what Lobov's biggest weakness is as it's now a solid mma meme. Lobov has absurdly short arms. In order to strike effectively, Lobov has had to walk forward and rely on his solid chin to get him into range. With his pressure, he's hoping to get his opponents to open up and land stronger counter shots in exchanges. Sometimes he will be successful leading but it takes very good timing, which he has developed. Unfortunately, his upright march forward to his opponents also leaves him very vulnerable to takedowns, and eating really hard shots at range.

Caceres is a long rangy fighter that seems like a horrible style matchup for Lobov. However, throughout his career, Caceres hasn't really used his length very well. He sometimes will jump well into his opponents range before throwing something, and has eaten some counters for making this mistake. Luckily for him he seems to have improved on this in his recent fights. Against Knight's relentless pressure, he was able to stay out of Knight's punching range for the most part and potshot at range. This led to Knight abandoning the striking and taking the fight to the mat. Against a reasonably skilled boxer in Rolando Dy, he spent a lot of the fight in a range where he could land but Dy could not. Unfortunately for Bruce Leroy, there really was no distance where he could touch Wang Guan and be safe from taking damage. Guan not only had similar length, but superior foot speed, hand speed, and timing. He was just outmatched.

Despite getting tooled in his last fight, there's a lot of reasons to like Caceres in the striking matchup. Aside from the obvious reach advantage, which is already a steep hill Lobov always has to climb, Caceres has some nice footwork as well. Lobov was successful backing up Fili and landing shots, but Fili's footwork was very predictable, consisting of circling to one side or the other (and more often than not into Lobovs power rear hand). Caceres has more lateral movement, and it's goofy and unpredictable. This is going to be an issue for Lobov who is already very reliant on his timing, and won't be used to fighting a southpaw, as now he's going to be fighting an erratic and spazzy one on top of that.

There's a good chance Lobov won't be able to figure out Caceres' timing until well into the fight, and drop the early rounds. Or, Lobov may get a bit reckless which might lead to an easy takedown. Which gets us into:

Grappling:

As mentioned earlier, Lobov needs to fight tall in order to overcome his reach advantage. Combined with pressuring style and he's an easy target for a takedown coming forward. This was evident in the Fili fight, and you also were left with the impression that Cub could've easily taken the fight there too, if he wasn't so invested in trying to knock Lobov out.

Luckily for Lobov, Caceres doesn't seem very interested in grappling these days. The last time we saw him successfully mix in TDs was against Cole Miller 4 fights ago. I don't expect Caceres to come in looking to grapple, but it's still an option if Lobov is coming forward and Caceres is having difficulty with the striking. With his high center of gravity, Lobov is particularly vulnerable to trips (check out that sweet O Guruma that Cub lands on him late in their fight), and Caceres can mix in these with striking to score easy points or to reset the action. In the clinch, Caceres is tenacious and will probably be busier. We saw him land some absurdly high knees on Rolando Dy with very little space to work. Because Lobov throws so hard to cover distance and still retain power, he's content to rest up in the clinch and this will be a bad idea against Caceres.

Intangibles:

The chin advantage clearly goes to Lobov. I don't know how he survived that head kick at the end of Rd1 against Filhi but he got up within seconds and didn't look shaky at all. Not sure how much longer that chin holds up but Caceres certainly isn't the one-hitter-quitter power puncher that you'd expect to punish Lobov's lack of defense. Caceres would need to land a perfect knee or a switch kick to the dome for a fight stopper. Compare this to Caceres getting clean clocked with a left hook by Guan in his last fight. That was clearly as saved by the bell as it gets. Still, Caceres eventually recovered to go the distance in that fight, so he will fight for your money.

I have avoided betting on Caceres in the past because he just doesn't have the mentality of a winner. Sometimes it feels like he's fighting an exhibition fight and just wants to show off his skills, rather than win fights. Going off memory, Caceres has stepped in to fight on short notice as well, so maybe there's another contributing factor. Luckily, Lobov isn't a winner either, as his 50/50 record clearly shows. Here the two have had time to prepare for one another.

Overall, if Caceres can play a successful outfighting game against Lobov, he will have control over all the positions in the match (distance, clinch, matwork). For Lobov, he's going to have to get Alex's timing very soon and hope to land something big. While this is entirely possible, it's probably not as likely as a relatively competitive striking matchup where Caceres lands more and stays out of enough trouble to earn a decision. As Caceres can also score points with TDs and in the clinch, I think he probably should be a bigger favorite, and was very good value at even odds.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[slikec]

Damn this is sad so sad

[Richard Clock]

Just finished tape on Caceres/Lobov and here's my analysis:
Artem Lobov vs Alex Caceres

Striking:

Like the Dunham/OAM matchup, this is going to be another southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Although in essence this just is a mirror of orthodox/orthodox, southpaws generally are less familiar with this matchup. Obviously, you can expect Lobov and Caceres to have prepared but, all things being equal, the unfamiliarity of the stance matchup might end up favoring Caceres here.

It's no secret what Lobov's biggest weakness is as it's now a solid mma meme. Lobov has absurdly short arms. In order to strike effectively, Lobov has had to walk forward and rely on his solid chin to get him into range. With his pressure, he's hoping to get his opponents to open up and land stronger counter shots in exchanges. Sometimes he will be successful leading but it takes very good timing, which he has developed. Unfortunately, his upright march forward to his opponents also leaves him very vulnerable to takedowns, and eating really hard shots at range.

Caceres is a long rangy fighter that seems like a horrible style matchup for Lobov. However, throughout his career, Caceres hasn't really used his length very well. He sometimes will jump well into his opponents range before throwing something, and has eaten some counters for making this mistake. Luckily for him he seems to have improved on this in his recent fights. Against Knight's relentless pressure, he was able to stay out of Knight's punching range for the most part and potshot at range. This led to Knight abandoning the striking and taking the fight to the mat. Against a reasonably skilled boxer in Rolando Dy, he spent a lot of the fight in a range where he could land but Dy could not. Unfortunately for Bruce Leroy, there really was no distance where he could touch Wang Guan and be safe from taking damage. Guan not only had similar length, but superior foot speed, hand speed, and timing. He was just outmatched.

Despite getting tooled in his last fight, there's a lot of reasons to like Caceres in the striking matchup. Aside from the obvious reach advantage, which is already a steep hill Lobov always has to climb, Caceres has some nice footwork as well. Lobov was successful backing up Fili and landing shots, but Fili's footwork was very predictable, consisting of circling to one side or the other (and more often than not into Lobovs power rear hand). Caceres has more lateral movement, and it's goofy and unpredictable. This is going to be an issue for Lobov who is already very reliant on his timing, and won't be used to fighting a southpaw, as now he's going to be fighting an erratic and spazzy one on top of that.

There's a good chance Lobov won't be able to figure out Caceres' timing until well into the fight, and drop the early rounds. Or, Lobov may get a bit reckless which might lead to an easy takedown. Which gets us into:

Grappling:

As mentioned earlier, Lobov needs to fight tall in order to overcome his reach advantage. Combined with pressuring style and he's an easy target for a takedown coming forward. This was evident in the Fili fight, and you also were left with the impression that Cub could've easily taken the fight there too, if he wasn't so invested in trying to knock Lobov out.

Luckily for Lobov, Caceres doesn't seem very interested in grappling these days. The last time we saw him successfully mix in TDs was against Cole Miller 4 fights ago. I don't expect Caceres to come in looking to grapple, but it's still an option if Lobov is coming forward and Caceres is having difficulty with the striking. With his high center of gravity, Lobov is particularly vulnerable to trips (check out that sweet O Guruma that Cub lands on him late in their fight), and Caceres can mix in these with striking to score easy points or to reset the action. In the clinch, Caceres is tenacious and will probably be busier. We saw him land some absurdly high knees on Rolando Dy with very little space to work. Because Lobov throws so hard to cover distance and still retain power, he's content to rest up in the clinch and this will be a bad idea against Caceres.

Intangibles:

The chin advantage clearly goes to Lobov. I don't know how he survived that head kick at the end of Rd1 against Filhi but he got up within seconds and didn't look shaky at all. Not sure how much longer that chin holds up but Caceres certainly isn't the one-hitter-quitter power puncher that you'd expect to punish Lobov's lack of defense. Caceres would need to land a perfect knee or a switch kick to the dome for a fight stopper. Compare this to Caceres getting clean clocked with a left hook by Guan in his last fight. That was clearly as saved by the bell as it gets. Still, Caceres eventually recovered to go the distance in that fight, so he will fight for your money.

I have avoided betting on Caceres in the past because he just doesn't have the mentality of a winner. Sometimes it feels like he's fighting an exhibition fight and just wants to show off his skills, rather than win fights. Going off memory, Caceres has stepped in to fight on short notice as well, so maybe there's another contributing factor. Luckily, Lobov isn't a winner either, as his 50/50 record clearly shows. Here the two have had time to prepare for one another.

Overall, if Caceres can play a successful outfighting game against Lobov, he will have control over all the positions in the match (distance, clinch, matwork). For Lobov, he's going to have to get Alex's timing very soon and hope to land something big. While this is entirely possible, it's probably not as likely as a relatively competitive striking matchup where Caceres lands more and stays out of enough trouble to earn a decision. As Caceres can also score points with TDs and in the clinch, I think he probably should be a bigger favorite, and was very good value at even odds.

Funny, this was the third fight on the card I analyzed, we seem to be on a similar schedule ... Haven't watched any Lobov fights yet in preparation, but I am not sure I am going to find anything in tape study that would sway me off the opinion that Caceres has value here. I have created a spreadsheet of statistics I find valuable in compiling before doing any tape study, and this was one of the first times where one of the fighters was superior in almost every metric: Caceres is younger, has less total fights, greater reach, has a higher Quality Performance % (this is one "advanced metric" I value on Fightmatrix, it gives you a good idea of a fighter's consistency against acceptable level opponents), better total win %, better "Big League Record" (Fightmatrix), higher finish %, higher striking accuracy, better striking defense, and an underrated 82% takedown success rate, albeit on only 11 attempts (per UFC stats). Additionally, Caceres has remained generally competitive against a tougher level of competition (as you mentioned, Guan and Yair are much more gifted strikers than Lobov in every aspect, and Lobov doesn't have the strength and technique as a grappler or the willingness to grapple that Jason Knight has). On the other end, Lobov's only 2 recent wins were vs Ishihara and Avila, and these are about as low a level of competition as you will find in the UFC at 145. The one thing going for Lobov is that he is incredibly tough and tough to finish, only being KO'ed once and submitted twice in 29 career fights. Again, I probably need to watch tape of his recent fights, but Lobov has always appeared like a ride or die brawler; he is a BJJ blue belt, and his UFC profile says that he'd rather "save cuddles for the ladies" than grapple in the UFC. My initial lean was that the sub win for Caceres is very much in play, as he has been aggressive and successful with submission in the past, and his grappling strength, especially offensively, may lead him going down that path in this matchup (scored some takedowns and found his way on top in scrambles vs Yair). Still, the fact that Lobov hasn't been submitted in the UFC makes me curious. Lobov's 54% TDD is solid. I agree that Caceres appears to be the better striker by all accounts as well, and I trust your analysis, but again, I haven't watched any tape besides his Cub fight for me to be completely sure about that. I tend to think a fighter's statistics, resume of performances speak for themselves, and I don't see Lobov making any huge leaps in his overall game at age 31. If anyone would make a marginal leap, it would be Caceres, who is still only 29 and (I assume) is still training at MMA Lab. Like to hear your thoughts on this and if the -135 line on 5D is something you would consider.

[Richard Clock]

All good. I also agree that OAM has fought quality but not very recognizable competition. CDF showed how good he is in his last fight, and Martin has always been a strong well rounded guy. Even before your post, I was contemplating betting OAM as a dog and reassessing after the first round. I think +120 might be good enough as well so I'll be riding with you on this.
The main thing I'll be looking for in this fight is the speed differential and the strength difference in the clinch. Dunham has always been stronger than his frame would suggest. And his hand speed and movement might be waning worse than we thought and this might be masked by how slow his recent opponents have been. Maybe he's been relying on veteran savvy to win.

Is there anything you're specifically looking for that's different? Cheers

I've noticed that OAM has a slight tendency to force takedowns without much set up. In most cases, he is so strong and technically gifted as a grappler that he can usually get away with this, but it has gotten him into some trouble against some of his more gifted opponents in Martin (in the 3rd round, he muscled a takedown which led to a Martin submission attempt and Martin finding his way into top position) and in Diego Ferreira (I watched this fight a few months ago, but I anecdotally remember OAM having success as a striker in the early rounds, and then initiating a grappling exchange that found Diego in top position in the 3rd). Dunham is a legitimate BJJ black belt and excellent in scrambles, so there is some worry there. OAM would be smart to pin Dunham against the cage in earlier rounds and tenderize him with foot stomps, knees to the thighs, and body punches. I keep going back to the idea that a 36 year old Dunham will have trouble dealing with the physical acuity and fluidity of movement of OAM despite his own technical abilities, as you alluded to.

[turbozed]

Funny, this was the third fight on the card I analyzed, we seem to be on a similar schedule ... Haven't watched any Lobov fights yet in preparation, but I am not sure I am going to find anything in tape study that would sway me off the opinion that Caceres has value here. I have created a spreadsheet of statistics I find valuable in compiling before doing any tape study, and this was one of the first times where one of the fighters was superior in almost every metric: Caceres is younger, has less total fights, greater reach, has a higher Quality Performance % (this is one "advanced metric" I value on Fightmatrix, it gives you a good idea of a fighter's consistency against acceptable level opponents), better total win %, better "Big League Record" (Fightmatrix), higher finish %, higher striking accuracy, better striking defense, and an underrated 82% takedown success rate, albeit on only 11 attempts (per UFC stats). Additionally, Caceres has remained generally competitive against a tougher level of competition (as you mentioned, Guan and Yair are much more gifted strikers than Lobov in every aspect, and Lobov doesn't have the strength and technique as a grappler or the willingness to grapple that Jason Knight has). On the other end, Lobov's only 2 recent wins were vs Ishihara and Avila, and these are about as low a level of competition as you will find in the UFC at 145. The one thing going for Lobov is that he is incredibly tough and tough to finish, only being KO'ed once and submitted twice in 29 career fights. Again, I probably need to watch tape of his recent fights, but Lobov has always appeared like a ride or die brawler; he is a BJJ blue belt, and his UFC profile says that he'd rather "save cuddles for the ladies" than grapple in the UFC. My initial lean was that the sub win for Caceres is very much in play, as he has been aggressive and successful with submission in the past, and his grappling strength, especially offensively, may lead him going down that path in this matchup (scored some takedowns and found his way on top in scrambles vs Yair). Still, the fact that Lobov hasn't been submitted in the UFC makes me curious. Lobov's 54% TDD is solid. I agree that Caceres appears to be the better striker by all accounts as well, and I trust your analysis, but again, I haven't watched any tape besides his Cub fight for me to be completely sure about that. I tend to think a fighter's statistics, resume of performances speak for themselves, and I don't see Lobov making any huge leaps in his overall game at age 31. If anyone would make a marginal leap, it would be Caceres, who is still only 29 and (I assume) is still training at MMA Lab. Like to hear your thoughts on this and if the -135 line on 5D is something you would consider.

Interesting re: the numbers on fightmatrix. I'm on there right now looking at fighter profiles and don't see any of the 'advanced' metrics that you mentioned. How or where can I find these figures?

I'm definitely a numbers guy. Oakland A's fan. Think moneyball works for baseball at the very least. Unfortunately, I don't think numbers will ever be the end-all be-all in MMA just because the sample sizes are way too low. A few minutes of action every few months means I'll always trust my eyes more then the numbers. But the numbers definitely can round out the entire picture, or put you on a matchup. So I think I'd like to add this into my tools. Let me know any other ways you've found this site useful.

[Richard Clock]

http://www.fightmatrix.com/fighter-p...m+Lobov/75461/ ... The metrics from this site I value (to varying degrees) is Big League Record and Quality Performance. 540 Metric is an interesting experimental data point that attempts to quantify "strength of schedule", which I think is a crucial aspect of MMA handicapping, but I am not sure how useful that metric is in particular based on my anecdotal experience with it.

I have always had a love for watching and playing sports and been mathematically inclined, so sports analytics/fantasy football feeds into both cravings. I do think there is an edge to be had with proper use of analytics/data in MMA, considering this area of the sport is untapped and a lot of the analysis/perception of fights/fighters is so subjectively based, which can led to inaccuracies. We are dealing with such small sample sizes of data compared to other sports, and the individual aspects of each matchup (grappling, striking, cardio, durability) are so circumstantial/context-based and difficult to quantify. However, I think incorporating metrics into your analysis can be useful (having more information can't hurt), especially if it can be found that those metrics have a correlation with UFC win percentage. I don't have the time or energy (I work full time) to deep dive into this type of analysis, but I do think there are certain statistics/factors (fighting on short notice, fighting out of country, moving up and down weight class, Fightmatrix Quality Perf %, 540 Metric) that can be found to have a meaningful positive or negative correlation with a fighter's win probability. I have refined my analysis and only consider those metrics I think really matter, and seem to have found success recently. I also think there is no substitute, particularly in MMA, for watching film. It is a little different in football, for example, where it is impractical to watch every route run by a wide receiver over an entire season, so relying on data is more useful and necessary.

[PaperTrail07]

I penetrating called it GOD DAMMIT...... Khabib rolls easy...

[PaperTrail07]

Max has good enough odds to get people to bite....smh books win again...

[firekillex]

I'll take Max for some BPs then sir.

wouldnt do 900 for 100 lmaoooooo
thats just the chances i see of the fight
ill never bet anything -300 or more regardless if i think its 100% bet because this is MMA

[firekillex]

I don't know how you could watch Max's fights the last 5 years and think he has less than a 10% chance against anyone of a reasonable size difference from him. The idea that a brilliant MMA technician like Holloway will just concede Khabib's TD and get beat for 5 rounds seems like a stretch. Holloway's management of distance and defensive grappling (offensive too) is remarkably good. His cardio is near perfect and his striking is superior to Khabib's. This is far from an easy stylistic matchup for Khabib.

tell me a worse stylistic matchup for holloway at 155... ill wait
management of distance means nothing when you have a guy run at you full speed , head down clinching you and tossing you on the mat like a ragdoll lol.. the only person that will have a chance against khabib is somebody who can pull off a wild scramble like ferguson or somebody who can shut his lights out with one punch like mcgregor... anybody else is just food

i dont even love khabib at all tbh, but mark my words hell demolish holloway and make him look average in this fight

[JIBBBY]

Max has good enough odds to get people to bite....smh books win again...

Does have 3 ko wins in round 3 in his last 3 fights.. If he can survive for a few rounds and get Khabib gassed he could land something maybe? Big if though, Khabib will put Max on his back for sure early and often..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Holloway-38671

[firekillex]

jose aldo and anthony pettis are very similiar to khabib

[JIBBBY]

jose aldo and anthony pettis are very similiar to khabib

Agreed.. I don't think Max can come in on short notice and beat Khabib myself... I was just thinking in my above post if MAX has a chance in this fight he's got to survive being dominated on the ground in the first few rounds and hope Khabib begins to gas late and get lazy with his take downs.. Khabib then could get caught standing..

Khabib is a ground fighter and yes Aldo and Pettis are (striking based fighters)..

[Shagdogy]

Agreed.. I don't think Max can come in on short notice and beat Khabib myself... I was just thinking in my above post if MAX has a chance in this fight he's got to survive being dominated on the ground in the first few rounds and hope Khabib begins to gas late and get lazy with his take downs.. Khabib then could get caught standing..

Khabib is a ground fighter and yes Aldo and Pettis are (striking based fighters)..

I agree that surviving early and surging late is the way, but there's a few problems with that. For one, Khabib did not slow one bit in his fight with Barboza at any point. But even more so, Holloway is on late notice, making a late weight cut, coming off an injury... yes he always has good cardio, but how good can it really be in this fight? Unless it's just a part of him and he doesn't have to train for it.

Even still this plan has a flaw. Everyone said Ferg could make this interesting because he could damage off his back, survive, and then had the cardio to press in rounds 3,4,5. Holloway doesn't have the game off his back that Ferg does. If he is on his back for long stretches, he's likely just defending but not doing anything to mark Khabib up or get him thinking. Top time will be much easier on Khabib vs. Max than it would have been vs. Ferg unfortunately. Even still... if Max has his cardio with him, then distance control and hand speed will be key and maaaybe he can start putting it on Khabib late. Skill wise, Max is way ahead of Khabib in the striking.

[Shagdogy]

What's the thoughts on Kowalkiewicz vs. Herrig? I was really liking the strides that Herrig had made in her ground game and physicality coming into the Courtney Casey fight, but then the two of them went out and had a terrible fight. Herrig didn't show any of that bulldog mentality. She has a very tough fight against KK coming up here and I think she will need to find that dog in her to get the fight on the mat and work her BJJ if she wants to get the win.

So who is the real Herrig? Is she the girl with multiple takedowns and back takes in each of her 2-3 previous fights to Casey, or is she the girl who stood in front of Casey just pot shotting left hooks with no footwork? If Herrig brings the bulldog, can KK stay on the feet? If she does, she will out volume Herrig to a decision easy.

KK by decision + Herrig by sub? Seems most likely outcomes.

[JIBBBY]

I agree that surviving early and surging late is the way, but there's a few problems with that. For one, Khabib did not slow one bit in his fight with Barboza at any point. But even more so, Holloway is on late notice, making a late weight cut, coming off an injury... yes he always has good cardio, but how good can it really be in this fight? Unless it's just a part of him and he doesn't have to train for it.

Even still this plan has a flaw. Everyone said Ferg could make this interesting because he could damage off his back, survive, and then had the cardio to press in rounds 3,4,5. Holloway doesn't have the game off his back that Ferg does. If he is on his back for long stretches, he's likely just defending but not doing anything to mark Khabib up or get him thinking. Top time will be much easier on Khabib vs. Max than it would have been vs. Ferg unfortunately. Even still... if Max has his cardio with him, then distance control and hand speed will be key and maaaybe he can start putting it on Khabib late. Skill wise, Max is way ahead of Khabib in the striking.

Agreed I think Khabib either pounds out or sub's Blessed if I had to guess.. Max hasn't fought in 4 months and if he was battling some kind of injury one's gotta think he didn't train much.. Khabib should take down Max and punish him early and often for sure..

Khabib is a beast...

[Richard Clock]

tell me a worse stylistic matchup for holloway at 155... ill wait
management of distance means nothing when you have a guy run at you full speed , head down clinching you and tossing you on the mat like a ragdoll lol.. the only person that will have a chance against khabib is somebody who can pull off a wild scramble like ferguson or somebody who can shut his lights out with one punch like mcgregor... anybody else is just food

i dont even love khabib at all tbh, but mark my words hell demolish holloway and make him look average in this fight

I want to clarify that I'm not denying that Khabib is a rough matchup for Holloway. My point is that I don't think the stylistic matchup matters as much when you are dealing with a fighter as technically perfect as Max who can make in-fight adjustments that other fighters cannot and who is as versatile and "modular" in nature as he is. Michael Johnson and Barboza are both unbelievably tough and skilled, but Max is a P4P great for a reason. The size difference is a concern yes, the books favorite Khabib for a reason, but I have a hard time believing that the matchup and fight is as simple as Khabib putting his head down and charging. That is not how MMA works, especially at an elite level like this matchup. I tend to think if Holloway can weather the early storm, show good wrestling defense and BJJ defense, and not get completely shut down early, which I think he is more than capable of, then he will be a problem for Khabib in the championship rounds That is when that management of distance and versatility of striking that you dismiss comes into play. Max's cardio is near perfect.

[JIBBBY]

Only prop up on the board so far

I'll be looking at Khabib ITD since it's a 5 rounder and Holloway by KO as a hedge probably if the odds for both are workable......

Max Holloway vs Khabib Nurmagomedov - Lightweight 5 rounds - UFC 223
Sat 4/7		1003 Holloway / Nurmagomedov goes 5 round dis		+125
11:59PM		1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		-165

[turbozed]

What's the thoughts on Kowalkiewicz vs. Herrig? I was really liking the strides that Herrig had made in her ground game and physicality coming into the Courtney Casey fight, but then the two of them went out and had a terrible fight. Herrig didn't show any of that bulldog mentality. She has a very tough fight against KK coming up here and I think she will need to find that dog in her to get the fight on the mat and work her BJJ if she wants to get the win.

So who is the real Herrig? Is she the girl with multiple takedowns and back takes in each of her 2-3 previous fights to Casey, or is she the girl who stood in front of Casey just pot shotting left hooks with no footwork? If Herrig brings the bulldog, can KK stay on the feet? If she does, she will out volume Herrig to a decision easy.

KK by decision + Herrig by sub? Seems most likely outcomes.

I got KK by decision (just like half a unit), with some Herrig scorecards no action as a hedge (and a small flyer on rd3 at +2400). Herrig has cashed for me in 4 straight fights, but I think KK is Herrig's ceiling. Was thoroughly disappointed in her performance against Casey and was lucky to get outta there with a win. Felice is a major step down in competition from the likes of Rose, Joanna, and Gadelha. She also got her tune up fight already against Jodie Esquibel. I think I'd be a bit more worried of her coming into this fight with no confidence and on a losing streak.

Can't go bigger because of the juice but I think KK likely takes a decision here.