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So she expects Joanna to last longer this time and closes interview with quote:
"Punch em in the face and choke em out. That's what I've been working on."
Ok girl what are you saying? Rose by submission is a valueable play?Comment -
Joanna going from -250 to -120 could be the dog by fight time...Comment -
Spot on. There is no way he comes in expecting to pressure Khabib. He's too smart for that, has shown good fight IQ and though brash, he isn't cocky enough to not understand his stand up matches up extremely poorly for this fight. So what else can we expect? I don't see a path to victory for him that doesn't involve Khabib getting caught on the ground. Expect more paced, distance strikes just for show, but 100% he will have a few tricks ready looking to possibly catch Khabib during a takedown without having to see if he can get it off his back. Khabib would be wise to be expecting Tony going for his legs from the standup.Comment -
No chance Tony wins a decision. His strikes are so unorthodox that many would simply leave him in a bad position for Khabib to just grab him like Super Street fighter Zangif and spin pile-drive that nigha's head straight into the worst next couple minutes of his entire life. It is submission or bust for that dude. LOL, I would have thought Tony by submission odds should be almost identical to his fight win odds. Anybody with a 5 Dimes account looking to bet Tony in any way may as well scoop up that extra cheese by submission.
Are there any other online sports accounts anyone knows that have similar MMA props and allow props to be parlayed? When I was underage long time ago, opened 5D account with my dad's info and it became a huge problem when I learned I wasn't smarter than him. Anyways, worried they keep shit like that on file and may screw me if I was to legit open another account with them.Comment -
Why not? She did in the first matchup. I learned this while back in the Dillashaw, Barao scraps. The fight game isn't a baseball game where any team can win. Or there's some luck involved. If you see a dominating performance , don't expect anything different in the follow up fight. Man, I was happier than a punk in a peter-patch to be getting Barao at around even money against Dillashaw in their second fight. Thinking it was a fluke of some kind. Not believing my own damn eyes. Won't be making that mistake again. I wonder, how many fighters actually split wins when they have fought more than once? Can't think of many at all. Conor and Diaz (questionable). Liddell and Couture I guess. Won't be putting Bisping into this convo considering he didn't really avenge his losses as much as just creep and stalk some geriatrics outta retirement. But on most, they always end up like Ortiz/Liddell or Holloway/Aldo or Aldo/Edgar. What do u think?Comment -
Anyone else surprised that Ferg was able to get the tap without getting Lee's arm across his body? Ferg actually tucked Lee's arm to the outside before he pulled the head to finish the choke. It's like Ferg knew he could finish that way, even though many people can't. Lee probably felt okay about waiting it out with his arm on the outside and then started to realize, oh crap, this squeeze is for real.Comment -
More fun with pictures... just rewatched Johnson/Borg and noticed that Borg failed on pretty much every single leg attempt, whether he shot long range shots or caught kicks. Saw this position play out numerous times always to Johnson's advantage.
A few notes from this fight:
* The entire thing looked like it was in fast forward compared to most fights you watch when capping.
* Johnson never ceases to impress. He was incredible. Dominant.
* Borg landed numerous double leg TDs against the cage and failed on every single leg TD. He also consistently lost clinch position and was taken down by trips from clinch. Is this a trend across all of his fights? Wonder how it plays into the Moreno matchup?
* Lots of speed from Borg on the feet, but very tentative striking (hard to blame him being tentative vs. Mighty Mouse). Not offering much danger on the feet.Comment -
^ Also - Borg looked very plain on the defensive in the grappling department. He needs to be the one dictating. Another reason he struggled was when he did land TDs he could not control Mighty Mouse on his back. MM always made space and got to feet.Comment -
It's a different type of triangle finish to close the gap on Lee's right side instead of bringing the arm over and changing the angle. These guys in this video explain it well.
Anyone else surprised that Ferg was able to get the tap without getting Lee's arm across his body? Ferg actually tucked Lee's arm to the outside before he pulled the head to finish the choke. It's like Ferg knew he could finish that way, even though many people can't. Lee probably felt okay about waiting it out with his arm on the outside and then started to realize, oh crap, this squeeze is for real.
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Yeah but even in the video they mention the squeeze you need to finish like that. That's what I mean... many people can't finish it that way. I think there's a solid chance Lee thought he was up, in top position, and got complacent for a moment looking to take a second to relax and didn't figure Tony had the squeeze to finish in that particular position. I can recall many times being in a triangle with shoulder forward and arm not across my body and being able to wait out the worst of it. I believe it just shows that Ferguson has a serious triangle squeeze that even the best grapplers may underestimate until they're stuck in it. Happens in grappling sometimes. You're familiar with a position, you've drilled it a ton, you think you know you're safe, but then the guy you're fighting happens to have a stronger squeeze or finish there than the guys youve been training with and you aren't prepared for it.
Think Pedro Munhoz guillotine. Prob a lot of these fighters who feel very confident they won't get subbed by a guillotine. They have strong top base and shoulder pressure. They know how to defend guillotine and have good composure. They get into the fight, Munhoz grabs guillotine, they don't worry about it and just go about their standard guillotine defense that always works in the gym, and then Munhoz squeezes and they start to straight up panic tap. Hard to prepare for that.Comment -
Yeah it might be a combination of a great squeeze from Tony plus the fact that Lee was gassed and didn't have the strength to fight it as he normally would.
But I think it does say something about Tony that he knows multiple variations of subs and is willing to use them in a fight. It's hard enough nowadays to get a submission win because opponents are aware of the textbook defenses so this puts more of a premium on submission guys being able to switch to different variations to counter the counter.
Maybe it'll become more of a trend and we'll see more guys like Tony, Ortega, Munhoz, etc. who can hit unorthodox subs against guys who have great defense.Comment -
I'm watching Tony vs RDA right now. I keep hearing that the whole fight changed AFTER Tony eyepoked RDA in round 2. I had money on RDA so I thought the same too (was biased).
Now that I watch the fight again, you can clearly see Tony taking over the fight late in Rd1. He was already dominating the early round 2 prior to the eye poke.
Getting poked in the eye obviously affects the fight. But Tony was already having success before it happened.Comment -
Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiits TIME!Comment -
I'm going with........
TONY FERGUSON +215 ROSE NAMAJUNAS -109 Comment -
Watched a LOT of Ray Borg yesterday and I feel like I have a solid profile of him. His speed, athleticism, double leg TDs, and work rate on the ground in top position are all strengths.
However, it seems like he’s a front runner. What I mean by that is he does well when HIS things work. If he holds a speed advantage early and is able to mix it up on the feet just a little bit (he’s almost never dangerous in the standup, but he can keep it even at times), and if he can land his double legs, then he rolls to a decision or possibly sub victory.
But if he’s struggling on the feet (usually having trouble with range) and can’t land his TDs with ease, then he’s in trouble. Against Scoggins we saw this play out, and against Mighty Mouse he was obviously just outmatched. What was problematic in those fights is that he doesn’t seem to have an answer for when HIS fight isn’t working. Against Scoggins he was already pulling guard early in round 2, and against MM he just went for the same stuff again and again and MM had the answer all along. He doesn’t adapt or change.
Seems like Borg lives off his speed and his double leg. If those don’t get it done, I think he is in trouble. Moreno clearly has the length to give Borg trouble but he’s not quite as fast. If he can stuff the TDs he has a much better shot than the odds imply though. Moreno has also been seeking out some good training throughout this fight camp, spending time with TJ and Bang. Finally, Borg had a kid just a few days ago I think. Not sure yet how I feel like that factors in.Comment -
I did analysis on this fight, and I am really close to pulling the trigger on OAM at plus odds. Want to see if this line moves in the +115 to +120 range, but am afraid it moves closer to pick em or even OAM as slight favorite. Line is at +105 on 5D curently. Few things I want to retort about your post, which I generally agree with:
- I am surprised you think that there is a significant striking advantage for Dunham. I disagree that Dunham's punching accuracy is great; he only lands 40% of his strikes according to UFC's stats, and just looking at the tape alone, it seems like Dunham relies on high output of strikes, rather than accuracy, to score points. Dunham is usually much more effective and lands more in the later rounds, as he has excellent cardio and durability and grinds down his opponent, and his opponent is usually much less fresh. He did have some success in boxing against Lauzon, but Lauzon has always been a limited striker. I honestly have not watched the Glenn or Pearson fights, so perhaps those fights would change my mind a bit about his boxing. He landed close to nothing on the feet in 3 rounds versus Dariush. Plus, Dunham doesn't have much diversity in his striking other than the occasional leg kick or high kick. Dunham may have success against OAM in the later rounds as OAM begins to slow down after clinch exchanges, but I am uneasy about this aspect of the matchup, as Dunham is 36 years and shop worn, while OAM is younger, only has 12 career fights, and has never been finished. I may have to go back to OAM's fight versus Diego Ferreira to confirm, but I don't believe that OAM's cardio/durability is much of an issue, if at all.
OAM might be the opposite type of striker, as you alluded too: more accurate, less volume, but more diversity with leg kicks and high kicks. People tend to downplay OAM's striking, which he seems to take exception to during post-fight interviews, and I think he has a point. He has generally been competitive with, and in some cases has outstruck, his recent opponents in Dober, Martin, and Diego Ferreira (all solid to above average strikers). He does have a blue belt in taekwondo. OAM just seems like an intelligent fighter generally who understands his striking limitations and is measured in his approach. I also like his footwork and management of distance in his striking.
- I also wouldn't be so sure in saying that Dunham is consistently faced and beaten tougher opponents. Dunham recent wins include Lauzon and Pearson, who are undeniably skilled and experienced, but older, shop worn and limited fighters. I question if Glenn is significantly better, if at all than Gouti or Drew Dober. Tony Martin is a highly skilled young fighter, and this was as impressive a win for OAM than any of Dunham's recent wins, despite it being by split decision. Fighting Dariush to a draw was undeniably impressive and a good feather in Dunham's cap in his mid 30s, but he came very close to being finished in the 1st round (are the odds significantly different if Dariush got the finish?) and I don't think we learned anything about Dunham from that fight that we didn't already know. He also showed a vulnerability to that lower calf kick, which OAM will likely aim for, and which could limit DUnham's already questionable mobility in later rounds.
Ultimately, I think the pathway by which Dunham consistently wins fights at age 36 is increasingly unsustainable. People tend to make the mistake of not projecting growth and decline in fighters and relying on past data when capping a fight. This could be an example of a fight where we can see one fighter takes a step back at age 36 and one fighter take a leap forward (age 29, only 12 professional fights, excellent athletic gifts, trains with a great camp and is clearly introspective with a high fight IQ) at the same time. With that being said, I think OAM can still beat Dunham if we see the same OAM and Dunham we have seen in previous fights.Comment -
One thing should be mentioned on the Brandon Moreno vs Ray Borg fight.
Brandon Moreno hooked up with Henry Cejudo @ TUF latin america and Cejudo has done an excellent job working with the Pitbull Bros, Alexandre Pantoja and others. Watching anyone Cejudo coached in wrestling, they've all looked very technical and very tight in every position.
I don't think Ray Borg has any sparring partners or wrestling coaches who are on Cejudo's level. Borg is a very scrappy guy but I think Demetrious Johnson exposed some of the technical holes in his game which Moreno also might be able to exploit.Comment -
I have def been half asleep every time I try to cap fights lately. So now here’s the question: if you can’t trust my analysis (leaning Moreno), and you can’t trust Borg, then what CAN you trust in this fight?Comment -
tony's out. max's in.
max vs khabib i like
no lie... will go all in on khabib if he's -250 or betterComment -
thought it was an April fool's joke.
I can't fukking believe this has happened again
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Injury to Ferguson caused by a trip.
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other than his win streak, Holloway has nothing to lose and everything to gain taking this fight. He's freerolling on another belt and worst case scenario, he loses and is still 145lb champ.Comment -
No fuckin way now goodamn fuckibn way itys april foosl no fuckin way!Comment -
Holloway kills himself to get to 145. Hope he can make 155. He might be in the 170 75 area. Bless is a fuking beast taking this fight.Comment -
Nah, he was more confident and finding his distance for the last minute or so of the fight. Completely obvious to me. You can keep holding on to your eye poke on narrative as much as you want though if I can't convince you.
Unfortunately, it's all academic at this point. Fight is off. I've never been so upset by a fight cancellation. Thought it really was going to happen this time.
UnrealComment
