UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Khabib (April 07, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

I got KK by decision (just like half a unit), with some Herrig scorecards no action as a hedge (and a small flyer on rd3 at +2400). Herrig has cashed for me in 4 straight fights, but I think KK is Herrig's ceiling. Was thoroughly disappointed in her performance against Casey and was lucky to get outta there with a win. Felice is a major step down in competition from the likes of Rose, Joanna, and Gadelha. She also got her tune up fight already against Jodie Esquibel. I think I'd be a bit more worried of her coming into this fight with no confidence and on a losing streak.

Can't go bigger because of the juice but I think KK likely takes a decision here.

I need to go watch Rose/KK but I watched all 3 of KK’s since then and there’s really not much in there to answer the question of whether or it KK can consistently keep it standing if Herrig commits to TD attempt after TD attempt. You have any thoughts on that aspect?

[JIBBBY]

^^ Rose could drop her again, not out of the question...That first fight ended quick and in a very dominate fashion.. Could happen again, Rose could be in JJ's head now, that last fight was just 5 months ago...

I'm thinking this time around though Rose could win by Submission. Drop her standing take her back and sink in a RN choke maybe..After all 5 of her 7 wins have come by submission victory.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rose-Namajunas-69083

1135 Namajunas wins by submission

+486

[PAULYPOKER]

I'm going with........

TONY FERGUSON

+215

ROSE NAMAJUNAS

-109

Apr 07

5551

KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV

-270

[turbozed]

I need to go watch Rose/KK but I watched all 3 of KK’s since then and there’s really not much in there to answer the question of whether or it KK can consistently keep it standing if Herrig commits to TD attempt after TD attempt. You have any thoughts on that aspect?

KK has a very high TDD rate of 85%. She seems pretty strong. And Felice's takedown rate isn't very good, only around 40%. I know numbers only tell half the story, but I think KK will have a significant physicality advantage. Herrig will have a very hard time landing clinch and trip takedowns. Unless she's developed her wrestling significantly, I don't think she can land TDs here.

[firekillex]

I want to clarify that I'm not denying that Khabib is a rough matchup for Holloway. My point is that I don't think the stylistic matchup matters as much when you are dealing with a fighter as technically perfect as Max who can make in-fight adjustments that other fighters cannot and who is as versatile and "modular" in nature as he is. Michael Johnson and Barboza are both unbelievably tough and skilled, but Max is a P4P great for a reason. The size difference is a concern yes, the books favorite Khabib for a reason, but I have a hard time believing that the matchup and fight is as simple as Khabib putting his head down and charging. That is not how MMA works, especially at an elite level like this matchup. I tend to think if Holloway can weather the early storm, show good wrestling defense and BJJ defense, and not get completely shut down early, which I think he is more than capable of, then he will be a problem for Khabib in the championship rounds That is when that management of distance and versatility of striking that you dismiss comes into play. Max's cardio is near perfect.

coming in injured , 1 week notice, wasnt training and is finally fighting a guy whos the same size he is... i think youre gonna be shocked how bad he is going to get handled.... but thats just my opinion, i give huge respect to holloway for taking this fight and its no doubt hes a TRUE fighter which is hard to find these days... but imo hes not a p4p great until he beats guys at 155 which for his body type would be his actual weight class... guys big as some 170ers hes not a natural 145er at all

people banking on khabib getting tired, ive watched this guy maul people for 3 rounds looking like he barely broke a sweat, when youre implementing your own style/ fight you dont get as tired...if holloway is getting mauled for 3 rounds hell be the much more tired man then khabib... its no doubt max is a great fighter but weve seen him get smothered before by a striker.... whats the best grappler in the UFC a weight class up gonna do to him?? Put holloway against any other 55er i like his chances

[Shagdogy]

KK has a very high TDD rate of 85%. She seems pretty strong. And Felice's takedown rate isn't very good, only around 40%. I know numbers only tell half the story, but I think KK will have a significant physicality advantage. Herrig will have a very hard time landing clinch and trip takedowns. Unless she's developed her wrestling significantly, I don't think she can land TDs here.

KK very good at staying busy in the clinch with quick knees as well and forcing opponents to press in and up with their heads, then limiting their TD game. I agree Felice will have a hard time getting under KK clean and taking her down. She will have to go the bodylock double under route like Gadelha but she just isn’t as overpowering.

I don’t love -185 but KK ml might be my first straight play here. I love her standup game against pretty much anyone other than JJ, and she should carry a solid advantage here. She keeps it up long enough, she wins. I like Felice but not 100% sold on her TD game.

[Shagdogy]

Just saw Ortega tweeted that he was offered Khabib and accepted too, but they gave it to Max and now I can’t stop thinking of how psyched I would have been for that matchup. Would have been some pure old school greatness. Give Ortega 5 rounds to catch a sub on Khabib and I don’t see how you could even make the fight any worse than even money for him. That man is a pure finisher and BJJ is his world. No training camp doesn’t even begin to affect his BJJ game. Damn. That was the matchup to make.

[Richard Clock]

coming in injured , 1 week notice, wasnt training and is finally fighting a guy whos the same size he is... i think youre gonna be shocked how bad he is going to get handled.... but thats just my opinion, i give huge respect to holloway for taking this fight and its no doubt hes a TRUE fighter which is hard to find these days... but imo hes not a p4p great until he beats guys at 155 which for his body type would be his actual weight class... guys big as some 170ers hes not a natural 145er at all

people banking on khabib getting tired, ive watched this guy maul people for 3 rounds looking like he barely broke a sweat, when youre implementing your own style/ fight you dont get as tired...if holloway is getting mauled for 3 rounds hell be the much more tired man then khabib... its no doubt max is a great fighter but weve seen him get smothered before by a striker.... whats the best grappler in the UFC a weight class up gonna do to him?? Put holloway against any other 55er i like his chances

Fair enough, I think the injury and size disadvantage are my biggest worries. I would be even more confident in Holloway at this line if he was just taking the fight on short notice and wasn't nursing an injury, but I suppose the odds wouldn't be quite as favorable in that case. Still, I don't think a Khabib will have as easy a time imposing his will on a 80-85% Holloway as you think, but I guess it is just a matter of watching the fight and seeing it for ourselves. I already blew my bet with how early I jumped on a bad line at +330, but I stand with my opinion that Max has a legitimate chance here.

[JIBBBY]

Just saw Ortega tweeted that he was offered Khabib and accepted too, but they gave it to Max and now I can’t stop thinking of how psyched I would have been for that matchup. Would have been some pure old school greatness. Give Ortega 5 rounds to catch a sub on Khabib and I don’t see how you could even make the fight any worse than even money for him. That man is a pure finisher and BJJ is his world. No training camp doesn’t even begin to affect his BJJ game. Damn. That was the matchup to make.

Ortega would have been put on his back immediately and pounded on for 5 rounds.. Ortega has the guillotine choke but it wouldn't have worked on Khabib.. Bad match up for Ortega..

Only fighter that's probably gonna beat Khabib right now is a very strong wrestler with outstanding take down defense and cardio with decent standup.. Someone like T-Wood or a GSP type fighter... If you can keep the fight standing in other words you have a chance to beat Khabib in the striking department..

Max Holloway isn't gonna be able to keep the fight standing either.. Khabib dumps everyone on their heads or backs..

[Shagdogy]

^ jibbs wtf are you talking about? Ortega has WAY more than just a guillotine. He has a TON of BJJ attacks. The dude is dangerous as hell off his back. You are wrong about this one. It’s no easy thing for anyone to take top position on Ortega and hold it for long periods of time. Would be a hell of a chess match.

[Thrilla]

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[firekillex]

^ jibbs wtf are you talking about? Ortega has WAY more than just a guillotine. He has a TON of BJJ attacks. The dude is dangerous as hell off his back. You are wrong about this one. It’s no easy thing for anyone to take top position on Ortega and hold it for long periods of time. Would be a hell of a chess match.

ortega would have a much better chance then holloway against khabib imo

[JIBBBY]

^ jibbs wtf are you talking about? Ortega has WAY more than just a guillotine. He has a TON of BJJ attacks. The dude is dangerous as hell off his back. You are wrong about this one. It’s no easy thing for anyone to take top position on Ortega and hold it for long periods of time. Would be a hell of a chess match.

I gotta disagree Shag, I think Ortega's main go to move against wrestlers that shoot is locking in that guillotine choke either standing or on the ground, Khabib is too seasoned to get caught in that or a triangle from the top position.. While Ortega is solid as hell on the ground I just think Khabib would dominate him in the top position.. That's Khabib's world top position and ground control...

[Shagdogy]

I gotta disagree Shag, I think Ortega's main go to move against wrestlers that shoot is locking in that guillotine choke either standing or on the ground, Khabib is too seasoned to get caught in that or a triangle from the top position.. While Ortega is solid as hell on the ground I just think Khabib would dominate him in the top position.. That's Khabib's world top position and ground control...

Ortega has subs upon subs. He can finish the guillotine if it’s there but it’s also the first step in a number of sub series that he can go to. If you think he’s throwing one sub out there and just hoping, then you are way behind my friend. It’s like chain wrestling when it’s the 3rd or 4th move that lands the TD. Ortega throws subs to set up multiple steps of transitions, sweeps, finishes. He’s not throwing up Hail Marys and hoping. He’s much better than that.

[JIBBBY]

Ortega has subs upon subs. He can finish the guillotine if it’s there but it’s also the first step in a number of sub series that he can go to. If you think he’s throwing one sub out there and just hoping, then you are way behind my friend. It’s like chain wrestling when it’s the 3rd or 4th move that lands the TD. Ortega throws subs to set up multiple steps of transitions, sweeps, finishes. He’s not throwing up Hail Marys and hoping. He’s much better than that.

If you say so Shag, I'd say maybe that's so for World class Brazilian champions like Jacre, Maia and others off their backs but last I checked Ortega has not won a world title championship in Jits yet.. He's a legit Black belt but not world beater off his back..

Ortega's recent sub wins have all come by guillotine choke.. Before that Triangle chokes. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

I don't see those landing on Khabib.. Khabib is much like a GSP fighter where he's so top heavy that just stalls out most sub attempts from bottom opponents... Just my opinion though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

wouldnt do 900 for 100 lmaoooooo
thats just the chances i see of the fight
ill never bet anything -300 or more regardless if i think its 100% bet because this is MMA

(+450)?

[Hugo de Naranja]

What's the thoughts on Kowalkiewicz vs. Herrig? I was really liking the strides that Herrig had made in her ground game and physicality coming into the Courtney Casey fight, but then the two of them went out and had a terrible fight. Herrig didn't show any of that bulldog mentality. She has a very tough fight against KK coming up here and I think she will need to find that dog in her to get the fight on the mat and work her BJJ if she wants to get the win.

So who is the real Herrig? Is she the girl with multiple takedowns and back takes in each of her 2-3 previous fights to Casey, or is she the girl who stood in front of Casey just pot shotting left hooks with no footwork? If Herrig brings the bulldog, can KK stay on the feet? If she does, she will out volume Herrig to a decision easy.

KK by decision + Herrig by sub? Seems most likely outcomes.

I was thinking the same.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^ Rose could drop her again, not out of the question...That first fight ended quick and in a very dominate fashion.. Could happen again, Rose could be in JJ's head now, that last fight was just 5 months ago...

I'm thinking this time around though Rose could win by Submission. Drop her standing take her back and sink in a RN choke maybe..After all 5 of her 7 wins have come by submission victory.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rose-Namajunas-69083

1135 Namajunas wins by submission

+486

I'm with you on this one.

[JIBBBY]

I'm with you on this one.

Yup Hugo.. Gotta go by the numbers and trends.. If JJ runs and sticks and moves well this fight though she could and probably will win by UN Decision though.. I'll look to hedge both probably myself..

[Thrilla]

The eagle lands in studio with Helwani.

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[rsynweap84]

If you say so Shag, I'd say maybe that's so for World class Brazilian champions like Jacre, Maia and others off their backs but last I checked Ortega has not won a world title championship in Jits yet.. He's a legit Black belt but not world beater off his back..

Ortega's recent sub wins have all come by guillotine choke.. Before that Triangle chokes. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

I don't see those landing on Khabib.. Khabib is much like a GSP fighter where he's so top heavy that just stalls out most sub attempts from bottom opponents... Just my opinion though..

Don’t forget tho, his last guillotine was one he jumped onto on a standing fighter, and let go of mid-way to readjust his grip to make even more tight...

That’s something I’ve never seen your world class BJJ guys do, let alone contemplate...followed by a round 1 TKO finish of the guy everyone said he would lose to...

Yea, I definitely woulda preffered Ortega here...and no I don’t think his skills are as shallow as you are making them out to be, hell if anything he’s gaining more weapons...

[Shagdogy]

I was thinking the same.

Just watched KK vs. Rose and was ready to bet KK more confidently. Her clinch work in that fight was very very nice. She is absolutely punishing with knees and short elbows and will certainly make Felice pay for trying to get in and press the fight to the cage. She left her hands down and ate a lot of shots, but she seems to have fixed that more recently, and worst case scenario her chin seems iron for what these girls are throwing at her...

BUT then I watched more of Felice again, and noticed a couple of things. 1) she's not as low volume as I remembered. In fact, she throws a LOT of combos and stays real busy, especially when pressured, which KK will definitely do. 2) While her cardio fades and her arms start to get heavy (a big problem when facing KK), her TDs have been strong late into the fight, particularly against Kisch who was having some success on the feet with pressure and volume similar to what KK will bring, but she just couldn't stay on the feet.

All in all, I still believe that KK should win this fight. She is the more varied striker and has better footwork than anyone Felice has fought on this winning streak. She has excellent pace, pressure, and durability which can break a lot of fighters. I think the cardio could be the key factor. As long as KK can stuff TDs of Felice, at least in the 2nd half of the fight, I think she will start to take over with pace, volume, grit... but it won't be easy. As much as I wanted to say KK is the obvious pick, I can definitely see the arguments for Felice. I think pretty highly of her strength with double unders/bodylock and her transitions and scramble ability once on the mat. I just hope that KK can make her pay enough in the clinch, and fight back to feet or defend enough early on the mat to get her game rolling in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[firekillex]

(+450)?

"ill never bet anything -300 or more regardless if i think its 100% bet because this is MMA"
thanks though lolll

[turbozed]

Ortega would have been put on his back immediately and pounded on for 5 rounds.. Ortega has the guillotine choke but it wouldn't have worked on Khabib.. Bad match up for Ortega..

Only fighter that's probably gonna beat Khabib right now is a very strong wrestler with outstanding take down defense and cardio with decent standup.. Someone like T-Wood or a GSP type fighter... If you can keep the fight standing in other words you have a chance to beat Khabib in the striking department..

Max Holloway isn't gonna be able to keep the fight standing either.. Khabib dumps everyone on their heads or backs..

What are you talking about? Ortega's specialty is his guard play. That's why he's called "T-City." The "T" stands for Triangle. Because he throws up triangles.

The reason why we've seen Ortega constantly grab guillotines is because nobody has really tried to grapple with him. So he has to look for subs during transitions on the feet.

[turbozed]

Just watched KK vs. Rose and was ready to bet KK more confidently. Her clinch work in that fight was very very nice. She is absolutely punishing with knees and short elbows and will certainly make Felice pay for trying to get in and press the fight to the cage. She left her hands down and ate a lot of shots, but she seems to have fixed that more recently, and worst case scenario her chin seems iron for what these girls are throwing at her...

BUT then I watched more of Felice again, and noticed a couple of things. 1) she's not as low volume as I remembered. In fact, she throws a LOT of combos and stays real busy, especially when pressured, which KK will definitely do. 2) While her cardio fades and her arms start to get heavy (a big problem when facing KK), her TDs have been strong late into the fight, particularly against Kisch who was having some success on the feet with pressure and volume similar to what KK will bring, but she just couldn't stay on the feet.

All in all, I still believe that KK should win this fight. She is the more varied striker and has better footwork than anyone Felice has fought on this winning streak. She has excellent pace, pressure, and durability which can break a lot of fighters. I think the cardio could be the key factor. As long as KK can stuff TDs of Felice, at least in the 2nd half of the fight, I think she will start to take over with pace, volume, grit... but it won't be easy. As much as I wanted to say KK is the obvious pick, I can definitely see the arguments for Felice. I think pretty highly of her strength with double unders/bodylock and her transitions and scramble ability once on the mat. I just hope that KK can make her pay enough in the clinch, and fight back to feet or defend enough early on the mat to get her game rolling in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I took the KK decision line when it was slightly + because I really don't see her finishing Felice and it was worth the 100 pt discount. I don't think Felice is out of it though and the ML doesn't seem to have too much value. I think KK decisions her like 66% of the time

[Hugo de Naranja]

"ill never bet anything -300 or more regardless if i think its 100% bet because this is MMA"
thanks though lolll

Talking a bit game for someone not willing to put up

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yup Hugo.. Gotta go by the numbers and trends.. If JJ runs and sticks and moves well this fight though she could and probably will win by UN Decision though.. I'll look to hedge both probably myself..

Those are the two most likely outcomes in my opinion. JJ by UD (my pick) or Rose by early finish (likely Sub)

[UncleChael]

Daniel Cormier: Thug Rose!!! Thug Rose!!!

[Unwritten Law]

Now if Khabib can remain healthy for this fight, who knows? Maybe perhaps we will see Max vs Ortega as the main event. Considering Khabib has a history of pulling out of fights as well.

[JIBBBY]

What are you talking about? Ortega's specialty is his guard play. That's why he's called "T-City." The "T" stands for Triangle. Because he throws up triangles.

The reason why we've seen Ortega constantly grab guillotines is because nobody has really tried to grapple with him. So he has to look for subs during transitions on the feet.

Frankie would have tried but he got tapped on the jaw standing.. I was waiting to see if Ortega could do anything off his back with Frankie Edgar but we never got to see that.. Ortega hasn't fought the best yet, time will tell.. Ortega is solid though and I'm not gonna bet against him any time soon.. If he was fighting Khabib I would fade him though. Just saying.. I'm high on Khabib and his top ground game.. Dude is a stud..

Weight class difference of 10 pounds between the 2 so not sure we will ever see that match up though.. Just talk and what if's for now...

[firekillex]

Talking a bit game for someone not willing to put up

lmao all good amigo, i stay by my rules .. cant stray from myself if i want to stay profitable
anything over -300 is and will always be a sucker bet in my eyes regardless of the bet

we both know khabib is winning this fight haha

[turbozed]

^ at even odds I'd probably bet on Khabib grinding his way to a win too. But the matchup is very interesting so I agree with Shagy that it'd be a more compelling fight. We'd get to see modern day smeshing machine vs the most dangerous bjj sub artist currently in mma. There's almost a guarantee we'll see some slick shit from both guys on the mat. I'd prob put money on Ortega sub if it was like +400 or better. His ability to catch guys and instantly get a tap is crazy.

[Sirius]

Just when MMA had something to feel good about the negative trend continues.

I love how everybody is talking about the fight again..."Khabib is a beast...going to smash him" square city IMO and I think I need to bet against it.

Max is just as tough of a fight or even tougher. We get better odds at like +380

An awesome story is set and Max can do this
Team Khabib have a great excuse for the loss on Khabib's trip back to reality and possible 2 loss streak.

Max will not lay on the mat...
If all goes well there will be a big significant strike advantage and Khabib gets punched out!

[Thrilla]

What are you talking about? Ortega's specialty is his guard play. That's why he's called "T-City." The "T" stands for Triangle. Because he throws up triangles.

The reason why we've seen Ortega constantly grab guillotines is because nobody has really tried to grapple with him. So he has to look for subs during transitions on the feet.

Forgive our friend Jibbby, he is a bit rusty. He was too busy posting and creating hate threads towards Immigrants, Black people and the homeless in the Saloon and players talk. Too much time spend with those hill billies. Happy the gifmaster is back amongst the martial artists.


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[Sato]

Max has good enough odds to get people to bite....smh books win again...

Bite? If you dont pick Max at those odds you are a complete braindead. Max is +400 right now jesus christ almighty.