There is a video on youtube of Rod's last fight before fighting in the Contender Series against a 5-4 fighter (last name of Hooben). Hooben was significantly smaller and less athletic than the rangy Rodriguez, but still was able to close distance and win in clinch exchanges against the fence. Rod never fought for underhooks, hand or head control, which are the basics of MMA grappling against the cage. He even conceded a few takedowns and was in some precarious situations on his back until Hooben went for an ill-advised submission attack (think someone mentioned it might have been a twister attempt) that found Rodriguez on top. Rod was just too heavy for Hooben and it seemed like Hooben (5-4 MMA record for a reason) lost his gas tank after losing top position.
After watching the limited Rod tape, my assumption was that Clark would show enough as a grappler in his recent fights to warrant a potential play on Clark, but I saw enough glaring holes in his game where I am staying away at these odds. My lean would actually be a bet on Rodriguez at plus odds if the odds permit it. I see this as close to a 50-50 fight. Despite having a wrestling background, Clark has shown poorly in that area vs Collier and Jan. Collier consistently won the udnerhook battle and reversed position in the clinch despite Clark initiating those exchanges. Clark's main success as a wrestler in that fight was due to an ill-advised standing submission attempt by an exhausted Collier, who was vastly inferior athletically and seemed to be in significantly worse shape than Clark.
Clark really struggled in grappling against the underrated and skilled Jan, once again losing the underhook battle in the clinch consistently and getting taken down himself. Clark has a 32% takedown success rate overall per UFC stats. He just isn't as good in this area as you may think, and needs his opponent to be severely inferior technically (which is hard to find at the UFC level) and/or athletically lacking to consistently land takedowns, which his pretty exclusive pathway to winning. While Rodriguez showed a lack of experience in the wrestling department in that recent fight vs Hooben, he will come into this fight with a severe reach advantage, is reasonably explosive and athletic, fights for a good camp and has a severe striking advantage. Clark has a 54% striking success rate, but this number is a bit misleading, as most of his strikes have some in the clinch and on the ground where successful strikes are easier to pile up. Clark has shown a particular vulnerability to be countered when trying to enter grappling range, using very little footwork and general craft. His striking lacks diversity and he tends to plod forward with robotic pot shots, relying on athleticism and explosiveness to grab a hold of you rather than any craft. But again, when he does grab a hold of you he struggles to score takedowns with any regularity. His striking defense is a poor 42%, per UFC stats. We haven't seen much of Rodriguez, but I was much more impressed with his striking technique and diversity of striking in the small sample size. He can very easily catch Clark as he tries to awkwardly enter into Rod's range. Whether Rod has improved in the clinch game is unknown, however I haven't seen enough from the supposedly more talented wrestler in Clark to assume he will impose his will in this area. Where msot of my confidence lies in this fight is Rodriguez's ability to outpoint Clark a majority of the time if this fight stays on the feet.
After watching the limited Rod tape, my assumption was that Clark would show enough as a grappler in his recent fights to warrant a potential play on Clark, but I saw enough glaring holes in his game where I am staying away at these odds. My lean would actually be a bet on Rodriguez at plus odds if the odds permit it. I see this as close to a 50-50 fight. Despite having a wrestling background, Clark has shown poorly in that area vs Collier and Jan. Collier consistently won the udnerhook battle and reversed position in the clinch despite Clark initiating those exchanges. Clark's main success as a wrestler in that fight was due to an ill-advised standing submission attempt by an exhausted Collier, who was vastly inferior athletically and seemed to be in significantly worse shape than Clark.
Clark really struggled in grappling against the underrated and skilled Jan, once again losing the underhook battle in the clinch consistently and getting taken down himself. Clark has a 32% takedown success rate overall per UFC stats. He just isn't as good in this area as you may think, and needs his opponent to be severely inferior technically (which is hard to find at the UFC level) and/or athletically lacking to consistently land takedowns, which his pretty exclusive pathway to winning. While Rodriguez showed a lack of experience in the wrestling department in that recent fight vs Hooben, he will come into this fight with a severe reach advantage, is reasonably explosive and athletic, fights for a good camp and has a severe striking advantage. Clark has a 54% striking success rate, but this number is a bit misleading, as most of his strikes have some in the clinch and on the ground where successful strikes are easier to pile up. Clark has shown a particular vulnerability to be countered when trying to enter grappling range, using very little footwork and general craft. His striking lacks diversity and he tends to plod forward with robotic pot shots, relying on athleticism and explosiveness to grab a hold of you rather than any craft. But again, when he does grab a hold of you he struggles to score takedowns with any regularity. His striking defense is a poor 42%, per UFC stats. We haven't seen much of Rodriguez, but I was much more impressed with his striking technique and diversity of striking in the small sample size. He can very easily catch Clark as he tries to awkwardly enter into Rod's range. Whether Rod has improved in the clinch game is unknown, however I haven't seen enough from the supposedly more talented wrestler in Clark to assume he will impose his will in this area. Where msot of my confidence lies in this fight is Rodriguez's ability to outpoint Clark a majority of the time if this fight stays on the feet.
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