Joe Rogan should ease it on the pot he has been smoking. So many mistakes announcing the fighters at weigh ins.
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[QUOTE=Richard Clock;27704305]In this fight Al's take down defense won't hold up.. That's his glaring weakness going into this fight.. He will end up on his back getting beat up.. Khabib is a gorilla grappler and will shoot in for the double and or clinch n trip and get it..
Al will hold his own standing against Khabib I think but the ground Khabib will own...Comment -
Finally got around to Dunham/OAM: Like a few others here, I think OAM is live. Dunham is a very high volume striker, but he has been successful lately against fighters who will willingly march into his range. So yes, he throws 3-4 punch combos after drawing you in, but if you aren't there for his first, you won't be there for the rest either. I think OAM will be the most careful with range of any of his past 3 opponents.
Lauzon and Glenn both were punching bags for Dunham, walking directly into his strikes. Dariush was a bit more careful but still was the one moving forward most of the time. Even still, Dunham landed much fewer strikes against Dariush than the previous two. I think he will land even fewer strikes here against OAM. Meanwhile, I do think OAM can potshot jabs/crosses and leg kicks if he's careful.
The big question is what happens in the clinch/TD game? Dunham is very technically sound in the clinch, but OAM has excellent strength, balance, and trip finishes. I think it's likely he lands TDs more than Dunham. However, Dunham is scrambly off his back and OAM has mental lapses sometimes where he can be reversed if he gets careless. I think that factor will keep this fight interesting, but I still have to get the edge to OAM for his distance management and very excellent clinch/trip ability. If he's cautious in top position and doesn't try to force anything, I think it's his fight.Comment -
^^ I agree with most of what you said Shag.. However, I still think Dunham out works OAM and wins in a tough fought split decision myself.. Dunham is on a bit of roll right now.. Confidence is riding high.. High output fighter.. Good enough in all areas to maybe beat a still developing fighter in OAM..Comment -
Nurmagomedov - SUB - RD 3
Jedrzejczyk - DEC
Moicano - DEC
Magomedsharipov - SUB - RD 2
Lauzon - SUB - RD 1
Kowalkiewicz - DEC
Dunham - DEC
Evans-Smith - DEC
Clark - DEC
My birthday today, wish me luck!Last edited by Teem; 04-07-18, 02:04 PM.Comment -
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I think the single most dominant skill in this fight is the bodylock+trip strength and balance of OAM. When all else fails, I think that will be there for him. I do question whether he will have as easy a time as he's had against others... and I definitely have reservations about how long he can spend on the mat before he has one of his mental lapses and Dunham sweeps him or gets his back. All that considered, I think it's more his fight to lose. If he imposes his best skills without making mistakes, I don't think Dunham will have enough of an answer. So basically betting on an improving, increasingly experienced, Tristar fighter to not cost himself with mental mistakes.Comment -
And now finally getting to Rose/JJ matchup. Man that last fight doesn't look like a fluke at all. Rose landed the lead left hook at will. JJ struggled with range, where she usually has a decent advantage over her opponents. And the chin, if there's any chance at all that her chin is really just at that stage in her career, then getting Rose at even is good. I know the value was much better earlier on when the line opened. Unfortunately I wasn't ready for that, but I still think I may play Rose here. I think she has to get her out of there early or at least have some real good success early so she gains confidence and gets a lead on the cards.Comment -
^ Interesting about Rose/JJ is that both girls looked much different than previous fights. Rose looked notably improved with her range, accuracy, and confidence on the feet, and JJ looked to have dropped off a little bit. Are these two girls whose careers are just moving in opposite directions? Or was that fight just a bad night for JJ and a good night for Rose, and if they both come back to a more average performance, will it tilt the scales back to JJ?Comment -
[QUOTE=JIBBBY;27704377]His glaring weakness? When was the last time he got taken down? Kevin Lee in 2014? He has an 83% TDD rate in the UFC. Just because he hasn't fought anyone of the wrestling caliber of Khabib doesn't mean that his glaring weakness is TDD. Have you watched his recent fights? From what I've seen, he does an excellent job in the clinch and fighting for underhooks. Also, showed a nifty leg lock counter to Lee's takedown attempt, but that would be very ill-advised vs Khabib.Comment -
Came away with the same conclusions. I think the assumption that Dunham has the significantly better striking is misguided. OAM lacks the volume of Dunham but has been far more accurate and diverse in his striking, and has more of the athletic capacity at this stage of his career to improve moderately in this area from fight to fight.
I also think the betting public may be underestimating the fact that Dunham is 36 years and can take a step down athletically from what we have seen, while OAM is still under 30 and continues to make progress, especially in his striking. He also fights for a great camp and seems to be introspective and intelligent in his own development. I tend to value OAM's overall consistency in his UFC career, and the SD win vs Tony Martin is an underrated one.
The worry is Dunham being so slick in scrambles that he may be able to catch OAM in a submission or die out rounds on top. Still, considering Dunham's advanced age and OAM's own grappling acumen and intelligent approach, I have a harder time seeing him get into any real trouble on the ground. OAM by TKO/KO opened in the +2800 and intrigued me, but I missed that and settled on ML at +120. May add on money if the price is right, as I feel really good about this one.Last edited by Richard Clock; 04-07-18, 03:08 PM.Comment -
You know, it can be argued that Al Iaquinta may be the 3rd best fighter that Khabib has ever fought.Comment -
I can't believe Bec Rawlings is still in the UFC. I figured they would gotten rid of her after VanZant fukked her up.
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Well Masvidal and Kevin Lee are worth arguing about a little bit Kermy.. I think Khabib could ground and beat up Masvidal but Kevin Lee I'm not so sure about? Kevin Lee is coming on hard right now and is a stand out wrestler himself.. Khabib I believe would have trouble grounding Kevin Lee for sure..
Kevin Lee is a much better fighter today then he was back in 2014 when Al fought him also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Al-Iaquinta-42817Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-07-18, 04:09 PM.Comment -
[QUOTE=Richard Clock;27704305]Looking for fighters with good take down defense against Khabib is like looking for that hot chick on girl's night out. Shit's irrelevant, really. Mofos will end up on their back. With AI, what many people seem to be missing in this fight, his greatest strength might simply be a good fight IQ. He positions himself less off instinct and seems to understand the other fighter's mentality during the fight. Very controlled. That may be the asset that puts him in a favorable position to finish. Really, who is gonna keep Khabib's grapple game locked down during an entire fight, anyways?Comment -
Kermit you horney little f*cker. I see you chose the one showing buttcrack and highlight her beatifull backspine from the pictures of my original post to quote post yours.
My favourite one too. Although tough choice between the last one where her pretty feet are erotically positioned, since I have a little footfetish
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0-3 and missed weight against Torres. If she loses this, I can't see her sticking around the UFC. I believe the 2 fights she did win were against fighters no longer in the UFC, and is 2-4 in her UFC career.Comment -
The real question is IF Al Iaquinta somehow wins, then what? Does he fight Conor? Wait for Tony? Or will Dana White pull some kind of bullshit and say that he can't give him the belt?Comment -
[QUOTE=RussianMike;27704680]I think that was the point RC was making, he has a high fight IQ and will definitely make this a fight. AI is no can.
There is absolutely no one in that weight class that can deal with his grappling, but AI does have the ability to make it ugly. My reservation is about his cardio, the pace that Khabib puts on everyone. Al hasn't fought in a year, and had a 2 year lay off before that.Comment -
by the way... where is Demonta
you alive buddy?Comment -
Could this be destiny for Iaquinta? It is 11 years to the day that his coach Matt Serra ko'd GSP to win the title in a big upset.
Now 4 fighters had to drop out in a week in order for him to get this fight in his hometown......Comment -
IiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitsTIME!Comment -
UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov Picks:
Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Ashlee Evans-Smith Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Joe Lauzon Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Zabit Magomedsharipov Round 2 Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Calvin Kattar Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)
Khabib Nurmagomedov Round 3 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)Comment
