UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Khabib (April 07, 2018)

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  • rsynweap84
    Restricted User
    • 06-24-16
    • 622

    #71
    Originally posted by Sanity Check
    Event is two weeks away & you're already putting your money where your mouth is.

    Well I felt like these 2 might have there odds drop a bit...Tony actually got a bit more pts added, +310 on ITD last I looked but I think it will close up a bit.

    Rose ITD went down over 30pts last time I checked, damn near +150/+160ish range for ITD, figured peoples would grab her up, at +190.

    Real nice thing is the open parlays on Chiesa as the dog, at +100, now Pettis has gone to dog status, plan to drop some on him at plus odds, love getting plus odd on both fighters when the lines shift.
    Comment
    • Slevin07
      SBR Hustler
      • 07-08-17
      • 60

      #72
      Ferg sub is +485, I took some of that as a hedge. I saw what Lee did to Ferg and Lee is underrated but I see Khabib getting Ferg down also. Khabib's gnp is on another level though. Don't think Ferg has enough power in his shots to keep Khabib from relentlessly coming at him. If Ferg keeps his distance and this fight standing, congratulations to him.
      Comment
      • Thor4140
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-09-08
        • 22296

        #73
        Originally posted by Slevin07
        Ferg sub is +485, I took some of that as a hedge. I saw what Lee did to Ferg and Lee is underrated but I see Khabib getting Ferg down also. Khabib's gnp is on another level though. Don't think Ferg has enough power in his shots to keep Khabib from relentlessly coming at him. If Ferg keeps his distance and this fight standing, congratulations to him.
        Tonys game is about a lot of pressure. This could fit right into Khabib hands. It is gonna be interesting to see Tony’s game plan
        Comment
        • Thrilla
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-10-15
          • 13809

          #74
          <iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="578.5" height="325" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVztyR3flwI?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
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          • rsynweap84
            Restricted User
            • 06-24-16
            • 622

            #75
            Sat 4/7 1631 Moreno wins by submission +1195

            OoO...Moreno by sub is back up again, higher than where it opened too, nice change from that fall down to +790...
            Comment
            • Teem
              SBR Sharp
              • 04-11-17
              • 343

              #76
              I'm having a hard time seeing how Khabib loses this fight. Didn't Groovy almost KO Tony? Haha. And Khabib just put on a great performance against the deadliest striker in the division. Tony won't be as lethal or quick as Barboza was. And didn't Lee take Tony down 3 times in his last fight? Lee was sick as hell. Khabib is gonna maul Tony. Tony's elbows won't do shit. Idk, maybe Tony wins a close decision. Either way, really excited for this whole card.
              Last edited by Teem; 03-26-18, 08:14 AM.
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              • Hugo de Naranja
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-14-16
                • 14140

                #77
                Originally posted by rsynweap84
                Sat 4/7 1631 Moreno wins by submission +1195

                OoO...Moreno by sub is back up again, higher than where it opened too, nice change from that fall down to +790...
                I hit it for .5u at this price.
                Comment
                • JIBBBY
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-10-09
                  • 83686

                  #78
                  Tick tock tick tock.. Taking forever between events this go around
                  Comment
                  • Shagdogy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-16-10
                    • 3564

                    #79
                    I'm having a seriously hard time capping this card. I can't even get started for some reason. I think it's because I have such a casual level of familiarity with all of the fighters that I don't feel the need to dive into tape study, even though I know it's necessary. Don't next to no capping so far.
                    Comment
                    • firekillex
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-18-13
                      • 6420

                      #80
                      Originally posted by Teem
                      I'm having a hard time seeing how Khabib loses this fight. Didn't Groovy almost KO Tony? Haha. And Khabib just put on a great performance against the deadliest striker in the division. Tony won't be as lethal or quick as Barboza was. And didn't Lee take Tony down 3 times in his last fight? Lee was sick as hell. Khabib is gonna maul Tony. Tony's elbows won't do shit. Idk, maybe Tony wins a close decision. Either way, really excited for this whole card.

                      didnt khabib get outstruck by gleison tibau and go 0/13 on takedown attempts??
                      didnt khabib get tagged by a 45er in michael johnson??


                      you could do that with any person... this matchup is so different then tony vs lando or tony vs kevin lee
                      or khabib vs tibau or khabib vs michael johnson ... hate when people do mma math or comparisons on fights that are completely different style matchups
                      Comment
                      • Thor4140
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-09-08
                        • 22296

                        #81
                        Originally posted by Thrilla
                        <iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="578.5" height="325" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVztyR3flwI?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
                        After listening to that how hard is it to not like Tony. Money stays in pocket for this one and I will be rooting for Tony to pull this off.
                        Comment
                        • Hugo de Naranja
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-14-16
                          • 14140

                          #82
                          Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.
                          Comment
                          • firekillex
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-18-13
                            • 6420

                            #83
                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                            Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.
                            tbh i think we see a different tony depending on his opponent ... hes actually a very smart fighter even though he fights super wreckless
                            this fight is just so crazy because theres so many ways this can go, if they fought 10 times i think one guy would win 6-4 at most in a 5 rounder.... people hyping up Khabib a ton lately but im not sure if guys are forgetting Ferguson has won 10 fights in a row against some legit killers.... people saying RDA could be 170 champ when Ferguson just unanimous decisioned him

                            IF khabib ragdolls ferguson hes easily the best lightweight and will probably win the 70 belt though
                            i think Ferguson has the best shot to beat khabib at 55 because he has cardio for days, amazing scrambles, and still has legit power to hurt khabib on the feet
                            Comment
                            • Hugo de Naranja
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-14-16
                              • 14140

                              #84
                              Originally posted by firekillex
                              tbh i think we see a different tony depending on his opponent ... hes actually a very smart fighter even though he fights super wreckless
                              this fight is just so crazy because theres so many ways this can go, if they fought 10 times i think one guy would win 6-4 at most in a 5 rounder.... people hyping up Khabib a ton lately but im not sure if guys are forgetting Ferguson has won 10 fights in a row against some legit killers.... people saying RDA could be 170 champ when Ferguson just unanimous decisioned him

                              IF khabib ragdolls ferguson hes easily the best lightweight and will probably win the 70 belt though
                              i think Ferguson has the best shot to beat khabib at 55 because he has cardio for days, amazing scrambles, and still has legit power to hurt khabib on the feet
                              Yeah I'm super excited to see these guys fight. Hopefully there's not a bunch of controversy like the last time I was in NY for the fights (UFC 208). Namajunas vs. Jedrzejczyk II should be great as well.
                              Comment
                              • firekillex
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-18-13
                                • 6420

                                #85
                                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                Yeah I'm super excited to see these guys fight. Hopefully there's not a bunch of controversy like the last time I was in NY for the fights (UFC 208). Namajunas vs. Jedrzejczyk II should be great as well.
                                these top 2 fights are so hard to call its unreal... i could literally see either person winning in both matchups, very hard to cap
                                well see if JJ comes in no excuses this time, shes in a bad situation because at 25 Valentina will beat her, so she needs to win this 115 title back if she wants to be Joanna Champion again imo
                                Comment
                                • firekillex
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-18-13
                                  • 6420

                                  #86
                                  what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
                                  3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
                                  or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by firekillex
                                    what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
                                    3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
                                    or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here
                                    I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo
                                    Comment
                                    • firekillex
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-18-13
                                      • 6420

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                      I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo
                                      would be sad to see Pettis be done like that...
                                      but i wouldnt be surprised, Chiesa is a huge 55er and if he can grind up Pettis against the cage he could definitely get a decision or sub

                                      hoping Pettis can keep the space and pepper him with strikes though
                                      Comment
                                      • UncleChael
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-30-13
                                        • 3979

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                        Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.
                                        Hes gonna fukk him up Hugo. Team El Cucuy
                                        Comment
                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-14-16
                                          • 14140

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by UncleChael
                                          Hes gonna fukk him up Hugo. Team El Cucuy
                                          Yeah I think I'll be with you on Ferg. Can't go against my boy.
                                          Comment
                                          • Shagdogy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-16-10
                                            • 3564

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                            I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo
                                            This must be one of the best ML plays on the card then in your opinion?
                                            Comment
                                            • Hugo de Naranja
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 04-14-16
                                              • 14140

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                              This must be one of the best ML plays on the card then in your opinion?
                                              I've got bets on Chiesa SNA (+143) and ITD (+361) so far. Will look to add to him live since he ALWAYS loses R1 and isn't a great roundwinner anyways.
                                              Comment
                                              • Thor4140
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-09-08
                                                • 22296

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by firekillex
                                                what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
                                                3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
                                                or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here
                                                It really is sad what has become of Pettis. He needs to just go out there and fight and forget about being taking down. There was a time he was deadly off of his back and now it looks like he is so scared of being taking down that he gets worked on his back. He looks like he is standing up a lot straighter when he is on his feet like he is gonna try to stop the take down at all cost. Just go out there and fight for fuks sakes. He loses this i don’t know what the hell he does from here.
                                                Comment
                                                • Thor4140
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                  • 22296

                                                  #94
                                                  I think Tony needs to get this in deep waters to win. I think if he gets this to round four it will be his fight to lose.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • firekillex
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-18-13
                                                    • 6420

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by Thor4140
                                                    It really is sad what has become of Pettis. He needs to just go out there and fight and forget about being taking down. There was a time he was deadly off of his back and now it looks like he is so scared of being taking down that he gets worked on his back. He looks like he is standing up a lot straighter when he is on his feet like he is gonna try to stop the take down at all cost. Just go out there and fight for fuks sakes. He loses this i don’t know what the hell he does from here.
                                                    he started focusing on wrestling too much and it ruined his game imo... hell never be a wrestler, he shouldve just be an elite striker and a deadly submission artist off his back... not a recipe to stay undefeated and dominant but he wouldve stayed in the top 10 and always be super exciting ... sucks to see no doubt , hes a really cool dude and a great story / style
                                                    Comment
                                                    • firekillex
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-18-13
                                                      • 6420

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by Thor4140
                                                      I think Tony needs to get this in deep waters to win. I think if he gets this to round four it will be his fight to lose.
                                                      khabib will have to deal some extreme damage to get Ferguson outta there... that guys an animal
                                                      and i highly doubt Khabib is submitting Ferguson only way he could really get him outta there is by GNP and i think Ferguson is too slippery to get KOD by ground strikes even though he did take some big damage from Lee in his last fight when he got mounted
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                                                      • firekillex
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-18-13
                                                        • 6420

                                                        #97
                                                        thoughts on Iaquinta vs Felder??
                                                        another super close/ hard fight to cap

                                                        both solid strikers with big power, this could be dark horse FOTN
                                                        Comment
                                                        • turbozed
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-15-08
                                                          • 2435

                                                          #98
                                                          Here are my thoughts on OAM vs Dunham:



                                                          Evan Dunham vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier breakdown



                                                          Striking:
                                                          Both guys are southpaw fighters. Dunham is the more natural striker, with great punching accuracy, good composure in the pocket, and high output. Throws diverse 3 and 4 punch combos. He has to throw combos because unfortunately Dunham's hand speed is problem. While he was able to outstrike RDA in their fight in 2013 his style since has been best suited for overwhelming slower and less mobile fighters like Rick Glenn and the aging Lauzon. His kicking ability is average.



                                                          OAM's on the opposite end of the spectrum. Never looking very comfortable in an exchange, OAM makes up for it by staying technical and looking for single strike opportunities. His striking output is very low, landing an abysmal 2.67 strikes per minute (nearly half of Dunham's output). The silver lining here is that when OAM lands, it's often a clean shot that registers with the viewers (and judges). He seems to have fast hands, and his timing on punches and counters has improved throughout his last fights, looking impressive particularly against Dober and at points against Martin. OAM possesses a fast and powerful left kick.



                                                          Dunham should have a clear advantage in striking exchanges here. But OAM may impress if he fights to his advantages. As the faster fighter with a good left kick, he can try to keep this fight at distance and spam leg kicks to Dunham's lead leg. He can use his mobility to exit from exchanges before Dunham is able to complete his combinations and potshot from distance. Either OAM would have to have improved his striking a bit to make this work, or Dunham would have to have slowed down (possible now that Dunham is 36 and has over 13 years of fights).



                                                          Grappling:
                                                          Dunham is a BJJ black belt, and is pretty slick on the ground. Although coming close to locking in an RNC against Glenn recently, he hasn't won by submission since 2010. He has always been stronger than his frame would suggest, looking good in grappling exchanges against the huge Tibau and even RDA. This again was in 2013, and we can expect him to be a little less physical now, but he also controlled Pearson and Glenn on the ground more recently. He has decent single and double leg takedowns in the middle of the cage, but needs to time them well to complete.



                                                          OAM is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in judo. This is pretty apparent when you see him clinch up with his opponents against the cage and muscle them down to the mat with a variety of trips and throws. His back taking and back control is excellent. OAM also has a good top control game, especially against the cage where he can stack even experienced grapplers (BJJ black belt Tony Martin couldn't do anything in this position, for instance). Part of the reason for his grappling success is that he's just a big and strong dude. He always looks a weight class bigger than his opponent.



                                                          Judging strength is always a guessing game until match itself, but my guess is that OAM will have the advantage here if the two were to clinch up. I doubt either will be shooting takedowns in the center of the cage.



                                                          Intangibles:
                                                          The line opened with Dunham the -180 favorite. This makes a lot of sense considering his advantage in striking, his performances over tougher competition, and his relentless toughness. He's a huge test for OAM who, until beating Martin, was mostly just a non-contender filling up spots in Canadian cards. OAM hasn't won a fight in America (or outside of Canada for that matter). However, given OAM's constant improvement, his physicality, and the help of Zahabi in his corner and preparing him for this fight, this might be a spot where the young guy can win a big fight against the aging Dunham who, at 36, can only be slowing down at this point in his career.



                                                          If I were to play Dunham, I'd probably wait to make a live bet since he usually starts off slow and comes on stronger in the later rounds, when his opponent has slowed down enough for him to really impose his game. Another reason would be to get a bit more information on how much OAM's improved and how much Dunham has slowed down, if at all.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Thrilla
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-10-15
                                                            • 13809

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                            Yeah I think I'll be with you on Ferg. Can't go against my boy.

                                                            Wait until fight-time!

                                                            25-0 Khabib hype public will make Ferguson odds rise.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Thor4140
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-09-08
                                                              • 22296

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by firekillex
                                                              khabib will have to deal some extreme damage to get Ferguson outta there... that guys an animal
                                                              and i highly doubt Khabib is submitting Ferguson only way he could really get him outta there is by GNP and i think Ferguson is too slippery to get KOD by ground strikes even though he did take some big damage from Lee in his last fight when he got mounted
                                                              People get all hyped up about that Kalib Barbosa fight. Barbosa stand up is way overrated. His punches don't pack much power and he gets hit a lot. Of course his leg kicks have real power but that is why Kalib didn't care to get hit and just bull rushed him. Tony cracks him with one of those elbows coming in that will stop all that bull rushing. Barbosa was also terrible on the ground that fight which tony will not be. Im with ya on this so called MMA math. Its ridiculous to even compare fighters like that. Why Jones had so much trouble with the Swede. Jones finally matched up with someone stylistically that could match him.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Wohlford
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-12-11
                                                                • 292

                                                                #101
                                                                Khabib money is really showing today, pushing Tony to +240
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 04-14-16
                                                                  • 14140

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by Thor4140
                                                                  People get all hyped up about that Kalib Barbosa fight. Barbosa stand up is way overrated. His punches don't pack much power and he gets hit a lot. Of course his leg kicks have real power but that is why Kalib didn't care to get hit and just bull rushed him. Tony cracks him with one of those elbows coming in that will stop all that bull rushing. Barbosa was also terrible on the ground that fight which tony will not be. Im with ya on this so called MMA math. Its ridiculous to even compare fighters like that. Why Jones had so much trouble with the Swede. Jones finally matched up with someone stylistically that could match him.
                                                                  *Khabib
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Thrilla
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 03-10-15
                                                                    • 13809

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    *Khabib

                                                                    Haha why double post quote all that text for that. I think everybody knows he means Khabib.

                                                                    Joey "motherf*cking" Diaz should really get on your nerves in this video. The amount of names he says wrong. LMAO

                                                                    Best rant ever!

                                                                    <iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="578.5" height="325" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U6r3sbA9XH8?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Thor4140
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 02-09-08
                                                                      • 22296

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                      *Khabib
                                                                      Him too. Post 73 i got it right
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                                        • 14140

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by Thrilla
                                                                        Haha why double post quote all that text for that. I think everybody knows he means Khabib.

                                                                        Joey "motherf*cking" Diaz should really get on your nerves in this video. The amount of names he says wrong. LMAO

                                                                        Best rant ever!

                                                                        <iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="578.5" height="325" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U6r3sbA9XH8?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
                                                                        Khalabeeb haha. Good ol Joey Diaz.
                                                                        Comment
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