UFC 223: Ferguson vs. Khabib (April 07, 2018)

[rsynweap84]

Event is two weeks away & you're already putting your money where your mouth is.

Well I felt like these 2 might have there odds drop a bit...Tony actually got a bit more pts added, +310 on ITD last I looked but I think it will close up a bit.

Rose ITD went down over 30pts last time I checked, damn near +150/+160ish range for ITD, figured peoples would grab her up, at +190.

Real nice thing is the open parlays on Chiesa as the dog, at +100, now Pettis has gone to dog status, plan to drop some on him at plus odds, love getting plus odd on both fighters when the lines shift.

[Slevin07]

Ferg sub is +485, I took some of that as a hedge. I saw what Lee did to Ferg and Lee is underrated but I see Khabib getting Ferg down also. Khabib's gnp is on another level though. Don't think Ferg has enough power in his shots to keep Khabib from relentlessly coming at him. If Ferg keeps his distance and this fight standing, congratulations to him.

[Thor4140]

Ferg sub is +485, I took some of that as a hedge. I saw what Lee did to Ferg and Lee is underrated but I see Khabib getting Ferg down also. Khabib's gnp is on another level though. Don't think Ferg has enough power in his shots to keep Khabib from relentlessly coming at him. If Ferg keeps his distance and this fight standing, congratulations to him.

Tonys game is about a lot of pressure. This could fit right into Khabib hands. It is gonna be interesting to see Tony’s game plan

[Thrilla]

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[rsynweap84]

Sat 4/7

1631 Moreno wins by submission

+1195

OoO...Moreno by sub is back up again, higher than where it opened too, nice change from that fall down to +790...

[Teem]

I'm having a hard time seeing how Khabib loses this fight. Didn't Groovy almost KO Tony? Haha. And Khabib just put on a great performance against the deadliest striker in the division. Tony won't be as lethal or quick as Barboza was. And didn't Lee take Tony down 3 times in his last fight? Lee was sick as hell. Khabib is gonna maul Tony. Tony's elbows won't do shit. Idk, maybe Tony wins a close decision. Either way, really excited for this whole card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sat 4/7

1631 Moreno wins by submission

+1195

OoO...Moreno by sub is back up again, higher than where it opened too, nice change from that fall down to +790...

I hit it for .5u at this price.

[JIBBBY]

Tick tock tick tock.. Taking forever between events this go around

[Shagdogy]

I'm having a seriously hard time capping this card. I can't even get started for some reason. I think it's because I have such a casual level of familiarity with all of the fighters that I don't feel the need to dive into tape study, even though I know it's necessary. Don't next to no capping so far.

[firekillex]

I'm having a hard time seeing how Khabib loses this fight. Didn't Groovy almost KO Tony? Haha. And Khabib just put on a great performance against the deadliest striker in the division. Tony won't be as lethal or quick as Barboza was. And didn't Lee take Tony down 3 times in his last fight? Lee was sick as hell. Khabib is gonna maul Tony. Tony's elbows won't do shit. Idk, maybe Tony wins a close decision. Either way, really excited for this whole card.

didnt khabib get outstruck by gleison tibau and go 0/13 on takedown attempts??
didnt khabib get tagged by a 45er in michael johnson??


you could do that with any person... this matchup is so different then tony vs lando or tony vs kevin lee
or khabib vs tibau or khabib vs michael johnson ... hate when people do mma math or comparisons on fights that are completely different style matchups

[Thor4140]

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After listening to that how hard is it to not like Tony. Money stays in pocket for this one and I will be rooting for Tony to pull this off.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.

[firekillex]

Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.

tbh i think we see a different tony depending on his opponent ... hes actually a very smart fighter even though he fights super wreckless
this fight is just so crazy because theres so many ways this can go, if they fought 10 times i think one guy would win 6-4 at most in a 5 rounder.... people hyping up Khabib a ton lately but im not sure if guys are forgetting Ferguson has won 10 fights in a row against some legit killers.... people saying RDA could be 170 champ when Ferguson just unanimous decisioned him

IF khabib ragdolls ferguson hes easily the best lightweight and will probably win the 70 belt though
i think Ferguson has the best shot to beat khabib at 55 because he has cardio for days, amazing scrambles, and still has legit power to hurt khabib on the feet

[Hugo de Naranja]

tbh i think we see a different tony depending on his opponent ... hes actually a very smart fighter even though he fights super wreckless
this fight is just so crazy because theres so many ways this can go, if they fought 10 times i think one guy would win 6-4 at most in a 5 rounder.... people hyping up Khabib a ton lately but im not sure if guys are forgetting Ferguson has won 10 fights in a row against some legit killers.... people saying RDA could be 170 champ when Ferguson just unanimous decisioned him

IF khabib ragdolls ferguson hes easily the best lightweight and will probably win the 70 belt though
i think Ferguson has the best shot to beat khabib at 55 because he has cardio for days, amazing scrambles, and still has legit power to hurt khabib on the feet

Yeah I'm super excited to see these guys fight. Hopefully there's not a bunch of controversy like the last time I was in NY for the fights (UFC 208). Namajunas vs. Jedrzejczyk II should be great as well.

[firekillex]

Yeah I'm super excited to see these guys fight. Hopefully there's not a bunch of controversy like the last time I was in NY for the fights (UFC 208). Namajunas vs. Jedrzejczyk II should be great as well.

these top 2 fights are so hard to call its unreal... i could literally see either person winning in both matchups, very hard to cap
well see if JJ comes in no excuses this time, shes in a bad situation because at 25 Valentina will beat her, so she needs to win this 115 title back if she wants to be Joanna Champion again imo

[firekillex]

what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here

[Hugo de Naranja]

what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here

I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo

[firekillex]

I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo

would be sad to see Pettis be done like that...
but i wouldnt be surprised, Chiesa is a huge 55er and if he can grind up Pettis against the cage he could definitely get a decision or sub

hoping Pettis can keep the space and pepper him with strikes though

[UncleChael]

Did anyone else think Ferguson looked a lot more measured in his last fight. Not sure if I like that for him. I think he will need to keep the pressure on to beat Khabib.

Hes gonna fukk him up Hugo. Team El Cucuy

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hes gonna fukk him up Hugo. Team El Cucuy

Yeah I think I'll be with you on Ferg. Can't go against my boy.

[Shagdogy]

I think Chiesa catches Pettis with an RNC. Pettis is fully done imo

This must be one of the best ML plays on the card then in your opinion?

[Hugo de Naranja]

This must be one of the best ML plays on the card then in your opinion?

I've got bets on Chiesa SNA (+143) and ITD (+361) so far. Will look to add to him live since he ALWAYS loses R1 and isn't a great roundwinner anyways.

[Thor4140]

what are peoples thoughts on chiesa vs pettis??
3 round fight , do we think chiesa will grind Pettis out for a decision here hmmm
or will Pettis be able to keep the distance and pick him apart on the feet , both really need a win here

It really is sad what has become of Pettis. He needs to just go out there and fight and forget about being taking down. There was a time he was deadly off of his back and now it looks like he is so scared of being taking down that he gets worked on his back. He looks like he is standing up a lot straighter when he is on his feet like he is gonna try to stop the take down at all cost. Just go out there and fight for fuks sakes. He loses this i don’t know what the hell he does from here.

[Thor4140]

I think Tony needs to get this in deep waters to win. I think if he gets this to round four it will be his fight to lose.

[firekillex]

It really is sad what has become of Pettis. He needs to just go out there and fight and forget about being taking down. There was a time he was deadly off of his back and now it looks like he is so scared of being taking down that he gets worked on his back. He looks like he is standing up a lot straighter when he is on his feet like he is gonna try to stop the take down at all cost. Just go out there and fight for fuks sakes. He loses this i don’t know what the hell he does from here.

he started focusing on wrestling too much and it ruined his game imo... hell never be a wrestler, he shouldve just be an elite striker and a deadly submission artist off his back... not a recipe to stay undefeated and dominant but he wouldve stayed in the top 10 and always be super exciting ... sucks to see no doubt , hes a really cool dude and a great story / style

[firekillex]

I think Tony needs to get this in deep waters to win. I think if he gets this to round four it will be his fight to lose.

khabib will have to deal some extreme damage to get Ferguson outta there... that guys an animal
and i highly doubt Khabib is submitting Ferguson only way he could really get him outta there is by GNP and i think Ferguson is too slippery to get KOD by ground strikes even though he did take some big damage from Lee in his last fight when he got mounted

[firekillex]

thoughts on Iaquinta vs Felder??
another super close/ hard fight to cap

both solid strikers with big power, this could be dark horse FOTN

[turbozed]

Here are my thoughts on OAM vs Dunham:



Evan Dunham vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier breakdown



Striking:
Both guys are southpaw fighters. Dunham is the more natural striker, with great punching accuracy, good composure in the pocket, and high output. Throws diverse 3 and 4 punch combos. He has to throw combos because unfortunately Dunham's hand speed is problem. While he was able to outstrike RDA in their fight in 2013 his style since has been best suited for overwhelming slower and less mobile fighters like Rick Glenn and the aging Lauzon. His kicking ability is average.



OAM's on the opposite end of the spectrum. Never looking very comfortable in an exchange, OAM makes up for it by staying technical and looking for single strike opportunities. His striking output is very low, landing an abysmal 2.67 strikes per minute (nearly half of Dunham's output). The silver lining here is that when OAM lands, it's often a clean shot that registers with the viewers (and judges). He seems to have fast hands, and his timing on punches and counters has improved throughout his last fights, looking impressive particularly against Dober and at points against Martin. OAM possesses a fast and powerful left kick.



Dunham should have a clear advantage in striking exchanges here. But OAM may impress if he fights to his advantages. As the faster fighter with a good left kick, he can try to keep this fight at distance and spam leg kicks to Dunham's lead leg. He can use his mobility to exit from exchanges before Dunham is able to complete his combinations and potshot from distance. Either OAM would have to have improved his striking a bit to make this work, or Dunham would have to have slowed down (possible now that Dunham is 36 and has over 13 years of fights).



Grappling:
Dunham is a BJJ black belt, and is pretty slick on the ground. Although coming close to locking in an RNC against Glenn recently, he hasn't won by submission since 2010. He has always been stronger than his frame would suggest, looking good in grappling exchanges against the huge Tibau and even RDA. This again was in 2013, and we can expect him to be a little less physical now, but he also controlled Pearson and Glenn on the ground more recently. He has decent single and double leg takedowns in the middle of the cage, but needs to time them well to complete.



OAM is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in judo. This is pretty apparent when you see him clinch up with his opponents against the cage and muscle them down to the mat with a variety of trips and throws. His back taking and back control is excellent. OAM also has a good top control game, especially against the cage where he can stack even experienced grapplers (BJJ black belt Tony Martin couldn't do anything in this position, for instance). Part of the reason for his grappling success is that he's just a big and strong dude. He always looks a weight class bigger than his opponent.



Judging strength is always a guessing game until match itself, but my guess is that OAM will have the advantage here if the two were to clinch up. I doubt either will be shooting takedowns in the center of the cage.



Intangibles:
The line opened with Dunham the -180 favorite. This makes a lot of sense considering his advantage in striking, his performances over tougher competition, and his relentless toughness. He's a huge test for OAM who, until beating Martin, was mostly just a non-contender filling up spots in Canadian cards. OAM hasn't won a fight in America (or outside of Canada for that matter). However, given OAM's constant improvement, his physicality, and the help of Zahabi in his corner and preparing him for this fight, this might be a spot where the young guy can win a big fight against the aging Dunham who, at 36, can only be slowing down at this point in his career.



If I were to play Dunham, I'd probably wait to make a live bet since he usually starts off slow and comes on stronger in the later rounds, when his opponent has slowed down enough for him to really impose his game. Another reason would be to get a bit more information on how much OAM's improved and how much Dunham has slowed down, if at all.

[Thrilla]

Yeah I think I'll be with you on Ferg. Can't go against my boy.

Wait until fight-time!

25-0 Khabib hype public will make Ferguson odds rise.

[Thor4140]

khabib will have to deal some extreme damage to get Ferguson outta there... that guys an animal
and i highly doubt Khabib is submitting Ferguson only way he could really get him outta there is by GNP and i think Ferguson is too slippery to get KOD by ground strikes even though he did take some big damage from Lee in his last fight when he got mounted

People get all hyped up about that Kalib Barbosa fight. Barbosa stand up is way overrated. His punches don't pack much power and he gets hit a lot. Of course his leg kicks have real power but that is why Kalib didn't care to get hit and just bull rushed him. Tony cracks him with one of those elbows coming in that will stop all that bull rushing. Barbosa was also terrible on the ground that fight which tony will not be. Im with ya on this so called MMA math. Its ridiculous to even compare fighters like that. Why Jones had so much trouble with the Swede. Jones finally matched up with someone stylistically that could match him.

[Wohlford]

Khabib money is really showing today, pushing Tony to +240

[Hugo de Naranja]

People get all hyped up about that Kalib Barbosa fight. Barbosa stand up is way overrated. His punches don't pack much power and he gets hit a lot. Of course his leg kicks have real power but that is why Kalib didn't care to get hit and just bull rushed him. Tony cracks him with one of those elbows coming in that will stop all that bull rushing. Barbosa was also terrible on the ground that fight which tony will not be. Im with ya on this so called MMA math. Its ridiculous to even compare fighters like that. Why Jones had so much trouble with the Swede. Jones finally matched up with someone stylistically that could match him.

*Khabib

[Thrilla]

*Khabib

Haha why double post quote all that text for that. I think everybody knows he means Khabib.

Joey "motherf*cking" Diaz should really get on your nerves in this video. The amount of names he says wrong. LMAO

Best rant ever!

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[Thor4140]

*Khabib

Him too. Post 73 i got it right

[Hugo de Naranja]

Haha why double post quote all that text for that. I think everybody knows he means Khabib.

Joey "motherf*cking" Diaz should really get on your nerves in this video. The amount of names he says wrong. LMAO

Best rant ever!

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Khalabeeb haha. Good ol Joey Diaz.