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Adding:
5 units on Werdum @ 1.47 to win - 2.38 unitsComment -
Pending bets: UFC 203 - Miocic vs Overeem 10th sept
16.2 units on Fabricio Werdum @ 1.47 to win - 7.6 units
5 units on Mickey gall, Werdum @ evens to win - 5 units
2 units on Brownee to win in round 1 @ 5.0 to win - 8 units
Last edited by bjpenn85; 09-07-16, 02:00 PM.Comment -
Adding hedge:
2 units on Travis Brownee to win in round 1. @ 5 to win - 8 unitsLast edited by bjpenn85; 09-07-16, 02:29 PM.Comment -
Funny that it was at (+400) really briefly and we both hit it in that window. Down to (+325) again. I think this fight is a Werdum domination with a slight chance of him getting clipped early. You may want to consider Werdum -3.5 (-115) as a small bonus play to your Werdum play since he's very likely to win and he almost never wins a (29-28 x3) or a split decision.Comment -
I know. Youll usually get a couple of chances to hit those props during a week. It was +400 yesterday, and when it went down to +325 i knew i had to pay attention, luckily we got the opportunity quite fast. Now i cant rest a little securing the most probablle hedge at decent odds.
Im thinking of passing on the -3.5 for now. I would like to play it safe. So annoying if it doesnt hit and becomes a loss where i have already picked correct side. I did regret dearly that i didnt play AES at +110 last week when i more or less knew she would dominate and get the late finish. This fight is a bit closer thant AES vs macedo so for that reason im not risking a loss over those 30% award i get in return if werdum dominates. Whats nice if Werdum is getting clipped is that he so good at defending on the ground that its very risky for Brownee to follow Werdum on the ground. That makes the TKO less likely than with other heavyweights. Stipe hit Werdum so clean that following werdum on the ground didnt pose any risk, he was basically out when he landed. Im not so sure Werdum will get koed two times in a row. I think werdum may play it a bit safe to begin with, and that is another reason why im not playing the handicap. That makes a 29-28 more likely if werdum takes one round off. So the handicap is absolutely considered, but found to risky atm.Comment -
One video Browne says he will die trying to beat Werdum. Sensing high motivation from the online video's. Careful with the stakes. Revenge + comming of a loss factor is strong with this one.Comment -
I know. He has stated hes going for broke here. I always have a bad feeling with all my bets, i never feel safe. Brownee has looked really really bad lately, so im banking on that trend to continue. All fighters are like..i had the best camp of my life, im super motivated bla bla, they always say stuff like that, so i cant pay to much attention to stuff.Comment -
OMG dude, 'best camp of my life' quote has the highest winrate ever!
I understand why you think it is the same thing everytime. Level of motivation doesnt mean that much compared to factors like skill level or injury concerns for example. Nevertheless it's better than nothing..... It's about the little details. It gives us at least some type of indication. We should gather as much info as we can get eventually to try and get an edge. I bet the wiseguys from the old days would be jealous of the acces to info (due to internet) we have nowadays.Comment -
TOMG dude, 'best camp of my life' quote has the highest winrate ever!
I understand why you think it is the same thing everytime. Level of motivation doesnt mean that much compared to factors like skill level or injury concerns for example. Nevertheless it's better than nothing..... It's about the little details. It gives us at least some type of indication. We should gather as much info as we can get eventually to try and get an edge. I bet the wiseguys from the old days would be jealous of the acces to info (due to internet) we have nowadays.
True, but the lines were very soft, so if you were really sold on a fighter winning, you got more often a favourable line. Like really favourable lines. Travis Brownee was -130 against james mcsweeney in his debut. Back then i didnt have the balls and experience to take advantage of those types of lines. Kalikas isnt as clumsy as he once was, obviously his skills as a linesmaker will develop in tacts with ours as bettors.Comment -
Podcasts worth listening to:
- MMA oddsbreaker - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/p...tting-preview/
- Bookie beatdown - http://bookiebeatdown.podomatic.com/...15_06_46-07_00
- Furys fight picks (not out yet)
-Kamikaze overdrive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa53jsFvFmQ
- MMA vivisection (Bloodyelbow, not out yet)
- Sherdogs roundtable (Not out yet, pay attention to Jordan Breen only)Comment -
Adding:
3 units on Jimmie Rivera, Gall inside distance @ 2.35 to win - 4 unitsComment -
Final bets: UFC 203 - Miocic vs Overeem 10th sept
16.2 units on Fabricio Werdum @ 1.47 to win - 7.6 units
5 units on Mickey gall, Werdum @ evens to win - 5 units
3 units on Jimmie Rivera, Gall inside distance @ 2.35 to win - 4 units
2 units on Brownee to win in round 1 @ 5.0 to win - 8 units
Comment -
You have any thoughts on the main event?
Overeem can follow a similar gameplan than what he did vs JDS, Miocic seems very basic in his striking just relying on toughness it seems, and his favorite punch seems unlikely to land against a southpaw. Overeem can very much do this for 5 rounds because Stipe's cardio is about as bad as his is.
However Overeem has yet to fight a good grappler in his new rangy southpaw facet, Reem has never had troubles with TDD but that was when he was a roid monster maybe this time he will be outmuscled, if he starts getting taken down his hands will drop and its night night.Comment -
UFC 203 locks
I am betting the house on Jessica Andrade to win this weekend. I also love Mickey Gall to win and Stipe Miocic. Those are my lead pipe locks.Comment -
I dont have any thoughts on the main event. Its a pickem for a reason. Overeem with a solid chin had been a good bet. If miocic had ever fought a guy like overeem before, and displayed even better movement on the feet, perhaps i would have made a bet on him. Its a pickem for a reason. One day i lean miocic, the other overeem. Its super close.Comment -
Mickey gall wins, andrade should exploit calderwoods bad boxing on the inside, miocic/overeem its a tough matchup to bet. Miocic has taken less damage during his shorter career so, thats at least one advantage that may come into play if both guys start to trade. Overeem is kind of smart though. He set traps, no punch or strike is a coincidence. Its pretty fascinating how he just changed his style within a couple of fights. Its like he said in an interview. I lost, then i had to change some things and come back. A lot of people says stuff like that, but dont really do it. He actually sat down, took notes from a lot of the lighter weights like cub swanson, and imitated what they did. And come back....COMPLETELY changed within only a couple of fights. Because he has such good technique, he can adopt almost any style and make it work.Comment -
After watching more tape, i really like Miocic, he's just stupid tough, he was able to walk through Del Rosario bodykicks and JDS punches to hit them with shots that would KO Overeem.
Reem is a great striker but his chin has been letting him down since 2003 and when he fights great fighters him getting knocked out is more the rule than the exception.Comment -
Do you have a year to date Penn85? Really like your breakdown on main event above, completely agree... Biggest trap and toughest lesson I've learned over the years, don't bet something because you really want to...when there is no edge, there just is no edge. Reem evolving four fights ago, ability to bait a dumb fighter, and sheer experience should be far more than enough to get the gold...however Stipe obviously has a one punch at anytime ability to take your money :-)Comment -
One more quick note, don't underestimate the corruption in this sport...Punk could very realistically get fed a W, I'd be leery on just running right into a potentially very dangerous and profitable for Vegas spiderwebComment -
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Adding:
3 units on Dustin the diamond Poirier @ 1.67 to win - 2 units
I have a hang for betting fighters with momentum. Do Poirier have a significant advantage stylistically?Not really. This fight may end up as a pure kickboxing match for three rounds because of MJs excellent tdd. For three rounds i do like Poiriers pace, his striking accuracy, and if the fight ends up on the ground he may score points, even if poiriers takedowns last a couple of seconds. Or, he may be dominant and pick up a sub. MJ is really good, so if he comes in ready to fight, this can be close, but he usually loses the third round in fights that goes to a dec. That basically means that if he doesnt win the two first rounds, hes doomed. Im willing to lay down 3 units to see if that theory holds water.Comment -
On for 13u right now. Will probably add 5-10u more in props and parlays. A Bet Of The Year type scenario for me. Here's my breakdown.
Standing:
Johnson has good range striking but not too much power. His boxing in the pocket is also good and he likes to keep the fight standing. He has tended to tire in the third round of fights given his high-volume striking approach. On the continuum of power/volume, I would classify Johnson as a very high volume striker without much power. He seems a bit one-dimensional in that his game is mostly boxing with some kicks, limited Muay Thai, limited wrestling, BJJ etc. I expect him to fade significantly as the fight goes on.
Since moving to lightweight, Poirier has showed improved striking offense and defense. He is a finisher with killer instinct and has recently stopped Carlos Diego Ferreira (never KO'ed before or since), Yancy Medeiros (never stopped due to strikes before or since) and Bobby Green (never KO'ed before), all in the first round. He does still get hit but as his fight with Joe Duffy showed, Dustin can take hard shots and is able to mix it up when he has a greater advantage on the ground. He has excellent power but also throws a high-paced attack and can mix in other elements of his very well-rounded game if his hands begin to tire.
Wrestling/Submissions:
Johnson does have the ability to get takedowns but rarely attempts them. His TDD is quite good although capable wrestler's are able to put him on his back. Submissions are a weakness in Johnson's game both offensively and defensively. He has been submitted 6 times in his career and does not present much of a submission threat to his opponents. In fights where I think there will be significant time spent wrestling, I look to see if either fighter has submission wins by guillotine. Johnson does not and I have not seen him close to finishing one in the tape that I've watched on him.
Poirier has a huge advantage in terms of getting this fight to the ground and dominating once it is there. In the Joe Duffy fight, Poirier used his wrestling to stifle Duffy's offense and was able to defend against the countless submission attempts Duffy threw off his back. His ability to use top control and defend submissions from a fighter with a very active guard gives me confidence that he will control Johnson on the ground. From there he can land hard punches and elbows to damage Johnson. Poirier has an excellent submission game from top position, something that I have not seen often in MMA. In the UFC, he has 2 wins by D'arce choke and 1 by mounted triangle armbar (against Max Holloway).
Methods of Victory:
For Johnson, I see his primary method of victory as keeping this fight a technical kickboxing match and trying to stick-and-move to outpoint Dustin over the 5-round distance. I don't see him as a submission threat and I don't think he has the power to TKO Dustin. The problem with this strategy is that he won't have the cardio to execute it over the 5-round distance. Moreover, I don't think Johnson offers to much in terms of technical striking that he didn't see from Green and Duffy (both of whom Poirier steamrolled). If this were a three-round affair, I think the current odds would be closer to correct. I could see Johnson winning the first round (IF he doesn't get TKO'ed like many recent Poirier opponents) but as the fight wears on, and he tires, Poirier will be more able to get him to the ground and work to get a finish and to score points.
I see Poirier as being able to win this fight anywhere it goes. He has a power advantage although Johnson does have a good chin. He has a big advantage in submissions and top control. He pressures his opponents and is difficult to keep and range and difficult to hurt. In short I think Poirier should be a (-375) favorite in this bout so I think there's a ton of value at (-150).Comment -
Very nice breakdown. Thanks.
-375 fav hm...that would have been a crazy opening line.Comment -
adding:
2.5 units on Dustin Poirier @ 1.64 to win - 1.6 unitsComment -
Nice night BJ! I actually passed this entire event, as I avoid betting HW for the most part, and was too questionable for the other fights. I was actually leaning Werdum decision, Correia decision, and Gall Sub but decided against it. Clearly, that was the wrong decision, but those all could have easily missed and I wasn't confident enough in them to make any sizeable bets. I admire your balls for 16+ units on Werdum though, too risky for me.Comment
