UFC on FX 8: Mighty Mouse vs Moraga (7-27-13)

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:19 PM

MMA market thought this girl was going to beat a decorated Kick Boxer

yes that is HIROKO, her name in japan is Chaiki. And yes she is a real dominatrix. And yes I do have one of her dominatrix Dvds.

**Hannibal** · 07-22-13, 08:25 PM

people look at randamie's frame and think: geez she looks so skinny, plus she has been a striker her whole life, she could probably get manhandled by a strong woman

**Das Jax** · 07-22-13, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

da f-ck is kedzie favored? Two kick boxers with one being 10x more decorated?

Originally posted by sideloaded

her defensive wrestling is ok, but Germaine isnt going to be shooting for anything.

Germaine isnt a wizard mma artist but she has enough to keep this standing. Where she is going to be gigantic compared to Kedzie. Plus a better kick boxer too.

I think the problem is that, given her record, the best way to beat Kedzie is clearly to submit her, but as a kickboxer, it's safe to say Germaine isn't a BJJ expert and would prefer to keep it standing. The problem with this approach... is that Kedzie hasn't ever been knocked out and apparently has a decent standup game herself. There's also the experience factor. I've never seen either girl fight, but Sherdog has 27 fights listed for Kedzie... and only five for Germaine so Kedzie has a clear advantage on that front. Though apparently she also has a significant kickboxing record as well?

Incidentally, that's also my concern about the Andrade fight. I think it's a pretty big deal to take someone accustomed to working in the fields of Brazil and, not just bring her to the US for the first time, but also ask her to fight under the crazy spotlight of a UFC event. Your enthusiasm for her (coupled with the juicy odds, of course) persuaded me to make a couple of small plays myself, but all the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see a serious case of Octagon jitters on display come Saturday.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

people look at randamie's frame and think: geez she looks so skinny, plus she has been a striker her whole life, she could probably get manhandled by a strong woman

She has been at AKA the past two years training wrestling with Daniel Cormier. She is a very strong woman.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

I think the problem is that, given her record, the best way to beat Kedzie is clearly to submit her, but as a kickboxer, it's safe to say Germaine isn't a BJJ expert and would prefer to keep it standing. The problem with this approach... is that Kedzie hasn't ever been knocked out and apparently has a decent standup game herself. There's also the experience factor. I've never seen either girl fight, but Sherdog has 27 fights listed for Kedzie... and only five for Germaine so Kedzie has a clear advantage on that front. Though apparently she also has a significant kickboxing record as well?

Incidentally, that's also my concern about the Andrade fight. I think it's a pretty big deal to take someone accustomed to working in the fields of Brazil and, not just bring her to the US for the first time, but also ask her to fight under the crazy spotlight of a UFC event. Your enthusiasm for her (coupled with the juicy odds, of course) persuaded me to make a couple of small plays myself, but all the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see a serious case of Octagon jitters on display come Saturday.

Nah man, people said that about Mizuki. a Japanese school girl. A real japanese school girl coming to America for the first time. Jitters and all that. Mizuki and Andrade are killers. Cold Blooded. America doesnt scare them.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

I think the problem is that, given her record, the best way to beat Kedzie is clearly to submit her, but as a kickboxer, it's safe to say Germaine isn't a BJJ expert and would prefer to keep it standing. The problem with this approach... is that Kedzie hasn't ever been knocked out and apparently has a decent standup game herself. There's also the experience factor. I've never seen either girl fight, but Sherdog has 27 fights listed for Kedzie... and only five for Germaine so Kedzie has a clear advantage on that front. Though apparently she also has a significant kickboxing record as well?

Incidentally, that's also my concern about the Andrade fight. I think it's a pretty big deal to take someone accustomed to working in the fields of Brazil and, not just bring her to the US for the first time, but also ask her to fight under the crazy spotlight of a UFC event. Your enthusiasm for her (coupled with the juicy odds, of course) persuaded me to make a couple of small plays myself, but all the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see a serious case of Octagon jitters on display come Saturday.

Kedzie is a passable kick boxer. Nothing on the level of Germaine. The fight wont be that close imo.

**goodfellas433** · 07-22-13, 08:31 PM

Tried to maxbet that Andrade by Ko prop at +1925..they adjusted it to +1500....hit that and it went to +1200. Does it take that little to move a line?

**Das Jax** · 07-22-13, 08:32 PM

Well, apparently the market's agreeing with you... she just fell to +106.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

popped the over 2.5.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

Well, apparently the market's agreeing with you... she just fell to +106.

That's not the market, that's this forum.

1) You can't really say the market has spoken until close.

2) There is no efficiency in the MMA market.

3) There may not be efficiency in any market.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:40 PM

Wish HIROKO would fight more. Always bet against her and won money. Somebody in japan really loves bettting these girls. I remember a lot of money coming in on Hitomi Akano vs Alexis Davis. I kept betting against it and was scared to death because I had almost my entire balance on that fight.

**Das Jax** · 07-22-13, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

That's not the market, that's this forum.

1) You can't really say the market has spoken until close.

2) There is no efficiency in the MMA market.

3) There may not be efficiency in any market.

How much pull do you really think SBR has? There's clearly some sizeable chunks of money thrown around from time to time, but unless there's an invisible army of ghost tailers, I suspect we're probably a drop in the bucket in terms of overall betting volume.

MD · 07-22-13, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

How much pull do you really think SBR has? There's clearly some sizeable chunks of money thrown around from time to time, but unless there's an invisible army of ghost tailers, I suspect we're probably a drop in the bucket in terms of overall betting volume.

You can move pretty much any of the lines that are out right now with a max-bet. So, you'd be surprised how much pull SBR can have.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

How much pull do you really think SBR has? There's clearly some sizeable chunks of money thrown around from time to time, but unless there's an invisible army of ghost tailers, I suspect we're probably a drop in the bucket in terms of overall betting volume.

you're feeling the wrath of nunya's posse combined with my pacific rim syndicate

**goodfellas433** · 07-22-13, 08:49 PM

I'm not sure if its the total funds or if it is also volume in a set time or what but as I stated above I swear a single max bet on a prop moves it sometimes....who knows

**goodfellas433** · 07-22-13, 08:50 PM

Wow, nm....md just outdid me once again. Sigh.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 08:53 PM

Kedzie coming back from surgery also

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-22-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

MMA market thought this girl was going to beat a decorated Kick Boxer

yes that is HIROKO, her name in japan is Chaiki. And yes she is a real dominatrix. And yes I do have one of her dominatrix Dvds.

I thought you were g*y?

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

How much pull do you really think SBR has? There's clearly some sizeable chunks of money thrown around from time to time, but unless there's an invisible army of ghost tailers, I suspect we're probably a drop in the bucket in terms of overall betting volume.

There are a LOT of people who read here and never post. I get PMs from people all the time who have never posted in this forum asking about this or that.

Also, 5dimes system is built to respond quickly to action. I used to think it's automated, but if so, it's automated poorly.

Anyway, people here are overstating the case when they say, "duh, I moved the line" because it moved after they bet it. 75% of the time it doesn't however with similar sized bets. So, as I've stated before, there's some threshold before they move the line, which may or may not be weighted on certain accounts; sometimes you're the last guy pushing that line so 'you' moved it. Whatever makes these dummies happy, you penetrating $250 line movers, you.

**sideloaded** · 07-22-13, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

I thought you were g*y?

reverse image search that. it's the real deal. I dont f-ck around meng

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

How much pull do you really think SBR has? There's clearly some sizeable chunks of money thrown around from time to time, but unless there's an invisible army of ghost tailers, I suspect we're probably a drop in the bucket in terms of overall betting volume.

Also, it's not about overall betting volume, it's about early betting volume. What moves the line at open and what moves the line 5 minutes before close are two separate things. I can put $100 on a prop at open and watch it drop 40 cents. Whereas I might max a line 20 times right before close and watch it continue to move the other direction.

**On2TheNext1** · 07-22-13, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

There are a LOT of people who read here and never post. I get PMs from people all the time who have never posted in this forum asking about this or that.

Been tailing Vaughany for ~3yrs now.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

reverse image search that. it's the real deal. I dont f-ck around meng

These dumb dumbs don't know how to reverse image search. And why give up some blue-belt level google-fu anyway?

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by On2TheNext1

Been tailing Vaughany for ~3yrs now.

I rest my case.

MD · 07-22-13, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

There are a LOT of people who read here and never post. I get PMs from people all the time who have never posted in this forum asking about this or that.

Also, 5dimes system is built to respond quickly to action. I used to think it's automated, but if so, it's automated poorly.

Anyway, people here are overstating the case when they say, "duh, I moved the line" because it moved after they bet it. 75% of the time it doesn't however with similar sized bets. So, as I've stated before, there's some threshold before they move the line, which may or may not be weighted on certain accounts; sometimes you're the last guy pushing that line so 'you' moved it. Whatever makes these dummies happy, you penetrating $250 line movers, you.

I can count on one hand the number of occasions in the last two months in which I have max-bet a line, and then the line didn't move.

Could be a coincidence; unlikely, but plausible.

MD · 07-22-13, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Also, it's not about overall betting volume, it's about early betting volume. What moves the line at open and what moves the line 5 minutes before close are two separate things. I can put $100 on a prop at open and watch it drop 40 cents. Whereas I might max a line 20 times right before close and watch it continue to move the other direction.

There's a lot of validity to this.

I max-bet GSP by decision over Diaz more times than I care to count during the walkouts, and it was getting better.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-13, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by MD

I can count on one hand the number of occasions in the last two months in which I have max-bet a line, and then the line didn't move.

Sometimes our high opinion of ourselves allows us to see the world as we wish it to be, not necessarily the way it is.

Trust me, I see a therapist for Narcistic Personality Disorder.

MD · 07-22-13, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Sometimes our high opinion of ourselves allows us to see the world as we wish it to be, not necessarily the way it is.

Trust me, I see a therapist for Narcistic Personality Disorder.

I don't have an ego when it comes to gambling bro. Well, I think I'm a top 1% handicapper, but other than that, not so much.

I actually have a lot of weaknesses in my gambling game. I think my self-assessment is pretty honest, but hey, it's me saying that, so take it with a grain of salt.

Also, I'm not counting how many times the line didn't move from memory. I've been recording it.

**goodfellas433** · 07-22-13, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I rest my case.

Well played sir. So spot on I actually laughed when he posted.

MD · 07-22-13, 09:17 PM

Why do so many people ask Vaughany for plays? I don't ask because I think he's square or anything, I just ask because he almost never posts plays.

**goodfellas433** · 07-22-13, 09:19 PM

Because he whines when you don't

**Hannibal** · 07-22-13, 09:20 PM

he used to
vaughany actually built his name here as a profitable bettor
he consistently tracked all of his plays, and organized them in a manner that was easily accessible for anyone that wanted to tail
i think he was averaging like 50 units/event
the 10 squid = 1 unit was kinda silly though, and he got a lot of shit for it
plus i think he had a small losing streak, and then just said penetrate it... no more putting in the work for all you fools

**Noleafclover** · 07-22-13, 09:24 PM

Damnit, wanted more out of the DeRandamie line.

**gabe** · 07-22-13, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by On2TheNext1

Been tailing Vaughany for ~3yrs now.

lol nice ghost account v

**gabe** · 07-22-13, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by MD

I don't have an ego when it comes to gambling bro. Well, I think I'm a top 1% handicapper, but other than that, not so much.

I actually have a lot of weaknesses in my gambling game. I think my self-assessment is pretty honest, but hey, it's me saying that, so take it with a grain of salt.

Also, I'm not counting how many times the line didn't move from memory. I've been recording it.

You and I are the top 2 here, IMO