UFC on FX 8: Mighty Mouse vs Moraga (7-27-13)

[gabe]

Damnit, wanted more out of the DeRandamie line.

i was expecting +230

[gabe]

Why do so many people ask Vaughany for plays? I don't ask because I think he's square or anything, I just ask because he almost never posts plays.

Exactly. He used to when I first started posting here but has since fallen off and been giving out soccer plays, for the most part. If that dude wasn't V's ghost account, then he probably meant he's been tailing soccer plays.

[gabe]

German De Vandammie

[Beelzebubzy]

i was expecting +230

how big of a play do you have on Kedzie, Premium Gabe

[MD]

You and I are the top 2 here, IMO

MDollars and Gabe Killinem. <3

Who you like on the undercard bro?

[NunyaBidness]

You and I are the top 2 here, IMO

Why is it all the top gamblers are always broke?

[MD]

Why is it all the top gamblers are always broke?

Gabe just got a job at MMA Odds Breaker, and I've always got my sperm donating gig to fall back on if the wheels come off this handicapping thing.

[sideloaded]

thread is getting good

[NunyaBidness]

Gabe just got a job at MMA Odds Breaker.

Really?

1) penetrate Touts.

and

2) penetrate Touts.

and

3) Anyone who is paying for picks from two guys who admit they still live with their parents, deserve to lose it.

Maybe they can absorb the talents and get Johnny Fat Face in there too. Then it'll be 4-1 when they roll up on my man Oddessa.

[Beelzebubzy]

@GabeKillianMMA: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Pat Healy will take place at UFC 165 in Toronto. — I predicted this bout three days ago (not on twitter.)

[sideloaded]

@GabeKillianMMA: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Pat Healy will take place at UFC 165 in Toronto. — I predicted this bout three days ago (not on twitter.)

[MD]

Really?

1) penetrate Touts.

and

2) penetrate Touts.

and

3) Anyone who is paying for picks from two guys who admit they still live with their parents, deserve to lose it.

Maybe they can absorb the talents and get Johnny Fat Face in there too. Then it'll be 4-1 when they roll up on my man Oddessa.

Yeah, Luca hired him. Does Kalikas still live with his parents?

I used to really enjoy their podcast when it was free, because I felt as if it got me in a very handicapping-centric mindset when I was out of the house. I'd pirate it if I could. No way in hell I'm paying for it though, I consider myself a better handicapper than Kalikas or Fury (not to say they're not good handicappers - they both are pretty sharp, in my opinion).

[NunyaBidness]

I think Kalikas is Luca's parents. Or Luca and Kalikas are Gabe's parents. I'm not sure.

Nick is obviously a solid capper, he's getting better and better and setting the lines, and more importantly predicting closers. More and more you see him open a line, the early sharps bet it off, but then it closes back where he set it.

I've never seen a Luca pick in my life. But I tend to believe that Furry Lucy could possibly pick better. Maybe if someone posts Luca's picks for this card, I'll video Lucy making her picks and we can see who does better.

[MD]

I think Kalikas is Luca's parents. Or Luca and Kalikas are Gabe's parents. I'm not sure.

Nick is obviously a solid capper, he's getting better and better and setting the lines, and more importantly predicting closers. More and more you see him open a line, the early sharps bet it off, but then it closes back where he set it.

I've never seen a Luca pick in my life. But I tend to believe that Furry Lucy could possibly pick better. Maybe if someone posts Luca's picks for this card, I'll video Lucy making her picks and we can see who does better.

The thing that impresses me most about Kalikas is when he and that other guy used to do the full-length eps of MMA Oddsbreaker, and they always had these f-cking ridiculously comfortable-looking chairs. I've never seen such comfortable looking chairs in my life.

[sideloaded]

does anyone know who sets the lines on all the boxing at 5d?

[NunyaBidness]

I don't know about those guys. But any serious gambler who has to stare at a screen a lot of the day has a Herman Miller Aeron. Your body will thank you.

http://www.amazon.com/Aeron-Chair-Herman-Miller-Adjustable/dp/B000LT80DY/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1374552067&sr=8-5&keywords=aeron

[NunyaBidness]

does anyone know who sets the lines on all the boxing at 5d?

I've always assumed they copy primarily from the Greek and then from other Euro bookmakers, they open late except for the biggest fights.

[MD]

I lay in bed while I'm on my computer (which is a lot of the day) because of a back injury. Only position I can find that offers relief is laying on my right side.

$900 for a computer chair, though? Is it that good?

[Das Jax]

Also, it's not about overall betting volume, it's about early betting volume. What moves the line at open and what moves the line 5 minutes before close are two separate things. I can put $100 on a prop at open and watch it drop 40 cents. Whereas I might max a line 20 times right before close and watch it continue to move the other direction.

I'll buy that. It would make sense that the books would be particularly sensitive to early line movements since putting out the wrong line means they run the risk of getting pounded into oblivion by sharps if they don't adjust quickly. Given the # of lines they put out and the number of cappers out there with specialized knowledge, that's obviously a risk from their perspective. Conversely, by the time the close rolls around, they know where they're sitting in terms of exposure since they've already taken in the lion's share of the action.

[sideloaded]

ive seen stuff go up at 5d and not anywhere else, like womens fights. The Holly Holm vs Mcgee fight and the japanese women stuff.

[NunyaBidness]

ive seen stuff go up at 5d and not anywhere else, like womens fights. The Holly Holm vs Mcgee fight and the japanese women stuff.

Most of that stuff is up on eurobooks. Check oddschecker.

[sideloaded]

usually do, but i probably just missed it. I really need help finding what books release these obscure boxing fights first. I thought unibet, or padaypower but it seems to change week to week. Is it one of these asian books like sbo or 188?

If someone can help me I will award 48 points

[NunyaBidness]

I lay in bed while I'm on my computer (which is a lot of the day) because of a back injury. Only position I can find that offers relief is laying on my right side.

$900 for a computer chair, though? Is it that good?

Take it from someone whose spine is trying to fuse itself. I know back pain.

You'd spend $1,000 on a TV? Isn't your back more important than that?

[NunyaBidness]

usually do, but i probably just missed it. I really need help finding what books release these obscure boxing fights first. I thought unibet, or padaypower but it seems to change week to week. Is it one of these asian books like sbo or 188?

I would assume it's something like the MMA market was a few years ago, where different books open different lines seemingly at random. I wouldn't think the big asian bookmakers would do it, since they seem focused on football.

[MD]

Take it from someone whose spine is trying to fuse itself. I know back pain.

You'd spend $1,000 on a TV? Isn't your back more important than that?

What've you found that helps to ease the pain? I have a herniated disc which is giving me pretty severe sciatica. Stretching helps me, but mostly anti-inflammatory, although anti-inflammatory are unfortunately only good in the short-term.

[On2TheNext1]

Exactly. He used to when I first started posting here but has since fallen off and been giving out soccer plays, for the most part. If that dude wasn't V's ghost account, then he probably meant he's been tailing soccer plays.

Not a ghost account. Perhaps tailing isn't the right term, but when he was actively posting plays and tracking results/doing write ups and discussing fights more -- I'd bounce my own views of match ups/plays off his and occasionally he'd turn me onto a line I wasn't aware of or considering. I've never "asked" him for his plays or spoken to the guy.

There are other good cappers here, just confirming this board has a healthy lurking community. I got turned on to the site from some 2+2ers.

[On2TheNext1]

I lay in bed while I'm on my computer (which is a lot of the day) because of a back injury. Only position I can find that offers relief is laying on my right side.

$900 for a computer chair, though? Is it that good?

Poker players everywhere say yes, and you can easily go well over a dime for a good chair.

[NunyaBidness]

What've you found that helps to ease the pain? I have a herniated disc which is giving me pretty severe sciatica, I've had it for over a year, despite my doctor assuring me that it would be gone within six weeks.

My condition is very different from 'normal' back pain. It's a deep internal pain. Most people with my condition take narcotics, norco or oxy. I don't take anything for pain. I figure those days are coming, so I'll delay them as long as possible. I try to spend as much time on my treadmill as possible, easy when I'm playing poker, not as easy to work on sportsbetting.

[Grabaka]

I lay in bed while I'm on my computer (which is a lot of the day) because of a back injury. Only position I can find that offers relief is laying on my right side.

$900 for a computer chair, though? Is it that good?

It is!!!!!! I love my Herman Miller.

[sideloaded]

grab you movin' weight down there in mexico?

[Grabaka]

Whats that?
lol dope?

no amigo....i work all day and 7 days a week on my computer. Its a good investment for me...

[sideloaded]

something off about that mma odds breaker youtube channel. On invicta they interviewed like three fighters and none of them had lines released on them. Now why interview fighters before an event for a gambling show then not release the lines? I think they interviewed damn near everyone on the card but did not upload the interviews with fighters that had lines released because they contained good info they did not want the public to have.

[MD]

something off about that mma odds breaker youtube channel. On invicta they interviewed like three fighters and none of them had lines released on them. Now why interview fighters before an event for a gambling show then not release the lines? I think they interviewed damn near everyone on the card but did not upload the interviews with fighters that had lines released because they contained good info they did not want the public to have.

Specifically for Invicta 6? Remind me to get back to you about this tomorrow.

[sideloaded]

yes, you got more info?

[gabe]

how big of a play do you have on Kedzie, Premium Gabe

why do you ask this every time i say i expected one fighter to be a bigger dog? i didn't say she deserved to be +230, i just said i expected it. just because i did not get the mispriced odds on her i was hoping for does not mean i'm going to bet against her. jesus christ.