LTA's MLB Plays

[blumpkin]

really like the sf/fla U. good luck lta

[Love The Action]

TY L2P2

Great call on your plays Lta

Great day!

congratulations, LTA.
excellent work, my friend.
good luck tomorrow.

Lta, nice work man, lets keep it going

Your on fire bud!!!!Good fuckin job again!!!!!!!!!!!

What a great day tailed your plays and went 4-0. Cheers
Lets beat these dam books. Now onto going through some tutorials on sportsinsight.

Your hard work is really paying off, great job buddy.

Thanks guys

Good luck today

[Love The Action]

Damn, ravens disappointed us. At least we cashed on the denver broncos, montreal alouettes, phoenix mercury....now we need arz cards to make it a sweet day.

LTA, yeah, just sprinkled 0.5x on these plays since I missed MLB, busy at work. During NFL season, I usually do 2x and am very selective. Also 1x on NCAAF. Love college football. Let's clean the books this season together.

Awesome night GV!!! You are the preseason football master!

I have to be honest, I really don't bet preseason NFL because it's so hard to call so I give you all the credit in the world for winning at it. To me, it all comes down to who has the best reserves and most desire.

Looking forward to football as well, although, unlike some others, I never stop MLB. I love MLB -- for better or worse -- and invest in it right through the World Series. Usually, it gets so hard because you have MLB, NFL, NCAAF and NBA all going on in early October. This year we won't have to worry about NBA though

Anyway, hope you have a great Friday as well. Good luck

[Love The Action]

Opening Line at Pin for this game is set at u7.5 (-110) over is 9-3 last 12 in ny and the over is 6-2 in Prices last 8 starts vs ny.

Over is 11-5-1 in tb last 17 overall.

Under or no play for me. Also lean Yanks on the side.

Yanks are dominant over lefties -- winning over 60% of all games in the last two years (hint, hint).

However, this is a pretty dynamic pitching matchup, even taking Price's recent struggles into consideration. I would be careful with the over here, but you never really know.

Good luck in whatever you choose!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/12/11

Play #1

Giants/Marlins under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

LAA/Toronto under (8) 1x (Locked)

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x Giants/Marlins under (7)(+100) (Locked)

Writeups to come....GL

[Vaioice]

with ya on both

[Redscot]

Came back strong yesterday LTA, nice job bro.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/12/11

Play #1

Giants/Marlins under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a great pitching matchup in this one with guys whose value cannot be denied. Cain's WAR is over 4 and Nolasco's at 2.9, which highlights how valuable these guys really are to their teams. Nothing about SF's offense screams over and the Marlins are beset by injuries right now (Beltran out for Giants; Infante and Ramirez out for Marlins). Cain's advanced stats measure up against anyone with a FIP under 3 and xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's. Cain's strike rate is almost at 20% with a GB/FB over 1. Nolasco's measurables are a level down from Cain, but still extremely solid with a FIP, xFIP and SIERA in the mid 3's, a K% around 18% and GB/FB at 1.3. Both pitchers have pitched well against these opposing lineups, but Cain has dominated Florida with an OPS under .590 and BAA under .200. Not to be outdone, Nolasco sports an ERA under 2 with a WHIP under 1 against the Giants. These are two top 12 bullpens in FIP, with Giants coming in at 2 in all MLB so I think the bullpens get it done today. We have a great price that I expect to drop throughout the day so I wanted to get this locked in at even money before the drop. I suppose we are risking that the ump is not favorable to our play, but that's a risk I am willing to make to get this one at even money. The win in Florida is expect to blow lightly across the field, so we should not have to worry about weather (other than the usual chance of rain down there). Based the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x.

Play #2

LAA/Toronto under (8) 1x (Locked)

Some people might be scared off by Santana's recent high pitch count, however, if you look back throughout the the last three seasons or so, you will see his performances are not negatively affected after high pitch count games. I am always concerned about Morrow, but his advanced stats are excellent. The guy is really dominant on paper with a 3.2 WAR, 2.92 FIP and an xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. However, his 26%+ K%, when combined with a BABIP over .310, tells me he is due for some big time success and that BABIP should head down as should his standard stats. Sanatana is no slouch with a 2.9 WAR, K% over 20% and a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. Plus, he has been dominant over the last couple months. Even though Toronto has a formidable offense, I think Santana keeps their production down and Morrow limits the Angels lineup. I see this total dropping to 7.5 at some point today, so I'm locking it in for 1x now.

Play #3

Padres ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

I understand that Arroyo has pitched a bit better of late, however, his "better" still results in about 3-4 earned runs per game. I just can't pass on this disparity in starting pitching. If you compare WAR, you are looking at +2.8 differential in favor of Latos over Arroyo. I will not bother listing all of the stats, but the scope of this pitching mismatch runs deep with Latos having the advantage by at least 1 with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA and even more pronounced when you talk about strikeout numbers. It is not as though Arroyo has had back luck, since he sports a BABIP lower than Latos, with a LOB% that is higher. It's just pretty clear we have two pitchers going in opposite directions. The Padres have a poor offense but are hitting better of late (almost .300 against righties in their last 10 games) as the result of variance from an overly horrific offensive start to the season. Yes, Heath Bell killed us the other day against the Mets and cost us some serious profit. However, I have to trust that SD's bullpen gets it done today against a struggling Reds lineup. With the Reds missing Phillips and otherwise not hitting very well of late, I like this spot for the Padres to steal this series opener and we will fade the public-backed Reds and support the Padres on the ML for 1x.

[pacocn]

Lta, wow that is scary, we had 2 of 3 plays exactly
the same. Lets get em I like the Mariners in
this spot.

[1Time!]

Great bounce back LTA! I got frustrated early in the cards/brewers game when they put up 4 in 1st innings so I tilted & steamed into the dbacks -1.5! Went off to a meeting & couldn't believe my eyes when I came back & collected on both! The zona miracle def cancels out the kansas blow up from yday!

[BiffTFinancial]

LTA, gotta get up early in the morning to keep up with you.... those are the two unders i like best today, though i may play LAA/TOR FF under instead of game under to avoid Rauch and the craptastic Jays pen, but either way, these are definitely the two pitching match-ups that jumped out at me. BOL to you today.

[shortdog]

BoL Lta..u are a real sharp dude

[shadow13]

S.F/UN ,good luck on your plays

[slyone66]

good luck LTA like your plays, thanks for all the winning picks.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/12/11

Play #1

Giants/Marlins under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a great pitching matchup in this one with guys whose value cannot be denied. Cain's WAR is over 4 and Nolasco's at 2.9, which highlights how valuable these guys really are to their teams. Nothing about SF's offense screams over and the Marlins are beset by injuries right now (Beltran out for Giants; Infante and Ramirez out for Marlins). Cain's advanced stats measure up against anyone with a FIP under 3 and xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's. Cain's strike rate is almost at 20% with a GB/FB over 1. Nolasco's measurables are a level down from Cain, but still extremely solid with a FIP, xFIP and SIERA in the mid 3's, a K% around 18% and GB/FB at 1.3. Both pitchers have pitched well against these opposing lineups, but Cain has dominated Florida with an OPS under .590 and BAA under .200. Not to be outdone, Nolasco sports an ERA under 2 with a WHIP under 1 against the Giants. These are two top 12 bullpens in FIP, with Giants coming in at 2 in all MLB so I think the bullpens get it done today. We have a great price that I expect to drop throughout the day so I wanted to get this locked in at even money before the drop. I suppose we are risking that the ump is not favorable to our play, but that's a risk I am willing to make to get this one at even money. The win in Florida is expect to blow lightly across the field, so we should not have to worry about weather (other than the usual chance of rain down there). Based the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x.

Play #2

LAA/Toronto under (8) 1x (Locked)

Some people might be scared off by Santana's recent high pitch count, however, if you look back throughout the the last three seasons or so, you will see his performances are not negatively affected after high pitch count games. I am always concerned about Morrow, but his advanced stats are excellent. The guy is really dominant on paper with a 3.2 WAR, 2.92 FIP and an xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. However, his 26%+ K%, when combined with a BABIP over .310, tells me he is due for some big time success and that BABIP should head down as should his standard stats. Sanatana is no slouch with a 2.9 WAR, K% over 20% and a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. Plus, he has been dominant over the last couple months. Even though Toronto has a formidable offense, I think Santana keeps their production down and Morrow limits the Angels lineup. I see this total dropping to 7.5 at some point today, so I'm locking it in for 1x now.

Play #3

Padres ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

I understand that Arroyo has pitched a bit better of late, however, his "better" still results in about 3-4 earned runs per game. I just can't pass on this disparity in starting pitching. If you compare WAR, you are looking at +2.8 differential in favor of Latos over Arroyo. I will not bother listing all of the stats, but the scope of this pitching mismatch runs deep with Latos having the advantage by at least 1 with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA and even more pronounced when you talk about strikeout numbers. It is not as though Arroyo has had back luck, since he sports a BABIP lower than Latos, with a LOB% that is higher. It's just pretty clear we have two pitchers going in opposite directions. The Padres have a poor offense but are hitting better of late (almost .300 against righties in their last 10 games) as the result of variance from an overly horrific offensive start to the season. Yes, Heath Bell killed us the other day against the Mets and cost us some serious profit. However, I have to trust that SD's bullpen gets it done today against a struggling Reds lineup. With the Reds missing Phillips and otherwise not hitting very well of late, I like this spot for the Padres to steal this series opener and we will fade the public-backed Reds and support the Padres on the ML for 1x.

Play #4

Astros/Dodgers under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Eovaldi is one of the Dodgers top prospects who has dominated at every level and held the Diamondbacks to 2 runs in his first career start. I expect more of the same today against a much weaker lineup. On the other side, Norris has pitched very well against the Dodgers throughout his short career and I expect a bounce back performance from his last start. Both offenses are at the bottom of the rankings and because Eovaldi has never faced the Astros, he has a bit of an advantage. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. I expect the books to start juicing the under pretty soon, so I locked it in now.

I believe our Friday card is now final, but I will post any action parlays (I have a solid palay opportunity in mind).

Good luck to everyone on their plays today!

[BigBoi]

Eovaldi is the pitcher for LA. Just pointing out the typo.

[Love The Action]

Eovaldi is the pitcher for LA. Just pointing out the typo.

Fixed...thanks and good luck

[BigBoi]

What are your leans on a parlay?

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/12/11

Play #1

Giants/Marlins under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

We have a great pitching matchup in this one with guys whose value cannot be denied. Cain's WAR is over 4 and Nolasco's at 2.9, which highlights how valuable these guys really are to their teams. Nothing about SF's offense screams over and the Marlins are beset by injuries right now (Beltran out for Giants; Infante and Ramirez out for Marlins). Cain's advanced stats measure up against anyone with a FIP under 3 and xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's. Cain's strike rate is almost at 20% with a GB/FB over 1. Nolasco's measurables are a level down from Cain, but still extremely solid with a FIP, xFIP and SIERA in the mid 3's, a K% around 18% and GB/FB at 1.3. Both pitchers have pitched well against these opposing lineups, but Cain has dominated Florida with an OPS under .590 and BAA under .200. Not to be outdone, Nolasco sports an ERA under 2 with a WHIP under 1 against the Giants. These are two top 12 bullpens in FIP, with Giants coming in at 2 in all MLB so I think the bullpens get it done today. We have a great price that I expect to drop throughout the day so I wanted to get this locked in at even money before the drop. I suppose we are risking that the ump is not favorable to our play, but that's a risk I am willing to make to get this one at even money. The win in Florida is expect to blow lightly across the field, so we should not have to worry about weather (other than the usual chance of rain down there). Based the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x.

Play #2

LAA/Toronto under (8) 1x (Locked)

Some people might be scared off by Santana's recent high pitch count, however, if you look back throughout the the last three seasons or so, you will see his performances are not negatively affected after high pitch count games. I am always concerned about Morrow, but his advanced stats are excellent. The guy is really dominant on paper with a 3.2 WAR, 2.92 FIP and an xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's. However, his 26%+ K%, when combined with a BABIP over .310, tells me he is due for some big time success and that BABIP should head down as should his standard stats. Sanatana is no slouch with a 2.9 WAR, K% over 20% and a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. Plus, he has been dominant over the last couple months. Even though Toronto has a formidable offense, I think Santana keeps their production down and Morrow limits the Angels lineup. I see this total dropping to 7.5 at some point today, so I'm locking it in for 1x now.

Play #3

Padres ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

I understand that Arroyo has pitched a bit better of late, however, his "better" still results in about 3-4 earned runs per game. I just can't pass on this disparity in starting pitching. If you compare WAR, you are looking at +2.8 differential in favor of Latos over Arroyo. I will not bother listing all of the stats, but the scope of this pitching mismatch runs deep with Latos having the advantage by at least 1 with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA and even more pronounced when you talk about strikeout numbers. It is not as though Arroyo has had back luck, since he sports a BABIP lower than Latos, with a LOB% that is higher. It's just pretty clear we have two pitchers going in opposite directions. The Padres have a poor offense but are hitting better of late (almost .300 against righties in their last 10 games) as the result of variance from an overly horrific offensive start to the season. Yes, Heath Bell killed us the other day against the Mets and cost us some serious profit. However, I have to trust that SD's bullpen gets it done today against a struggling Reds lineup. With the Reds missing Phillips and otherwise not hitting very well of late, I like this spot for the Padres to steal this series opener and we will fade the public-backed Reds and support the Padres on the ML for 1x.

Play #4

Astros/Dodgers under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Eovaldi is one of the Dodgers top prospects who has dominated at every level and held the Diamondbacks to 2 runs in his first career start. I expect more of the same today against a much weaker lineup. On the other side, Norris has pitched very well against the Dodgers throughout his short career and I expect a bounce back performance from his last start. Both offenses are at the bottom of the rankings and because Eovaldi has never faced the Astros, he has a bit of an advantage. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. I expect the books to start juicing the under pretty soon, so I locked it in now.

Card is final at the above four plays. No action parlays. Good luck to everyone on their plays today!

[Redscot]

Lookin' really solid again tonight my man. SD rallying as I type. Dude, as hot as you are you gotta at least e-mail me your leans so I can play my Lotto parlays!

Have a good one, I am sure you are burping baby boy on your shoulder with like 10 pages open on your computer capping, , degen!

[blumpkin]

keep up the great work. sf is brutal offensively!

[alamo]

2-1 for the night. Lets get the Astros.

[Redscot]

Wow man, bullpens have not been your best friend lately....just a way of the baseball god's keeping you humble I guess .

[shadow13]

S.D bullpen continues to screw everything up

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/13/11

Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

I'm sure this will be one of tomorrow's bigger public plays and I think the public rides this under all the way to the bank. Weaver is coming off the suspension after throwing over 120 pitches in his last start so this rest couldn't have come a better time. I expect Weaver to be fresh and ready to roll. Although Weaver might be set to regress at some point with a BABIP coming in pretty low in the .240's and LOB% over 80%, he has a high enough K% at 22% to keep rolling and that is exactly what I think happens on Saturday afternoon. Romero has been up and down this year, but has pitched well in his last three starts after a rough July. Two of those starts were against the lefty-challenged Baltimore, but the other was against a surprisingly decent lefty hitting team in TB. I think motivation plays a key and I expect Romero to be motivated to face off against Weaver in the only game going on in the afternoon. The Angels are actually a decent left handed hitting team with team stats in the middle of the pack, but Romero knows the whole world is watching and I expect him to be prepared to face the pressure. Plus, Romero has historically pitched much better at home where his splits evidence a significant advantage in Toronto (e.g. K% 25% at home this year compared to 18% on the road, FIP 3.08 at home and 4.5 on the road, etc.) I won't go through all the stats, but both pitchers have no-hit stuff capability. I have this one coming in at 6.8, so it's not exactly like there is a ton of value per my model, but I don't base my plays strictly on the numbers alone. I think this is an intense game tomorrow and the ump is a notorious under guy with a high strike rate, so I see no reason not to pull the trigger on the under here and I am doing just that for 1.5x.

[Love The Action]

Have a good one, I am sure you are burping baby boy on your shoulder with like 10 pages open on your computer capping, , degen!

Sounds like you speak from experience

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/13/11

3 - 1 = +2.48x

MLB Season 2011

340 - 298 = +38.5x

Another blown save by the Padres was the difference between a possible +4.5x night and the actual +2.48x night. However, we brush off another bullpen disaster for the third time this week and move on. We have one play locked in for Saturday with the LAA/Toronto under and a few more to follow tomorrow morning. I'm off to bed...back to the grind on Saturday...

[blackeyeshamus]

excellent write up, LTA.
good luck tomorrow! cheers.

[CdeQ]

Another winning day, LTA!

[kobstopa]

I'll be rolled with 2 under's special - Nyy/Tampa under 9.5 and as well
Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

[blumpkin]

im seeing a 2-1, 3-2 type of game in toronto this afternoon. another nice one here. Good Luck

[Redscot]

Sounds like you speak from experience

who me

Looking forward to another solid weekend my man.

How has the NFL been to you in the past?

[shortdog]

great job yesterday Lta.. Them damn padres gave it up..Bol on your plays today.

[The Coach's Desk]

Great job LTA

[Love The Action]

I'll be rolled with 2 under's special - Nyy/Tampa under 9.5 and as well
Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

Good luck Kob!