LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 08-08-11, 09:18 PM

Was driving home in the car from work, heard we won the White Sox game and were up comfortably in the 9th inning of both the Padres and Braves games. I park and get out of the garage expecting the 3 - 0 sweep with a nice +3.5x day. Instead, I walk in, kiss the baby and wife and find that Heath Bell blew the save.

That fat stroke...that slide into the pitchers mound in the All-Star game was one of the lamest things I have seen.

Damn, we went from +3.5x to +0.425. Oh well, that's baseball for better or worse. I'll update the record really quick and then move onto Thursday's card. Already started looking at that one earlier. Good luck to anyone that has late game plays.

**Love The Action** · 08-08-11, 09:35 PM

MLB Recap 8/8/11

2 - 1 = +0.425x

Heath Bell...ugh...went from +3.5x day to +0.425x day because of him but profit is profit and is better than a losing day. Onto Thursday's card.

MLB Season 2011

329 - 293 = +33.02x

Back to the grind...

**Redscot** · 08-08-11, 09:46 PM

You're like that classic body puncher LTA, keep wearing them down....the head will fall soon.

Take care of yourself my man, late night at work.

**funnyman** · 08-08-11, 10:02 PM

Hated that SD loss. Heath Bell is too full of himself. The fat slob.

**Love The Action** · 08-08-11, 11:04 PM

MLB 8/9/11

Play #1

Angels ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Tigers/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

KC/TB under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I was working on some writeups after locking these in when the lines started to move. I will give you my thoughts later but wanted to post these before they move any further. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 08-08-11, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/9/11

Play #1

Angels ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Tigers/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

KC/TB under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Braves ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

Two huge pitching disparities and two pitching matchups I really like tomorrow...off to bed now, up early for work. We will probably have a few more plays as well....good luck.

**kobstopa** · 08-09-11, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #4

Braves ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

Two huge pitching disparities and two pitching matchups I really like tomorrow...off to bed now, up early for work. We will probably have a few more plays as well....good luck.

good luck I take ATL as well

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by kobstopa

good luck I take ATL as well

Glad to see you on the Braves as well Kob! Good luck

**BigDan** · 08-09-11, 06:58 AM

maybe ill join you on braves today. passed yesterday but did hit the total and by some act of god i even hit fla tt ov with those 2 runs in 9th

keep up the great work bro you are killing it

Gl today

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/9/11

Play #1

Angels ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Tigers/Indians under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

KC/TB under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Braves ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

Sorry...no time for full writeups on these ones. Here are some quick hits:

Even though the Angels don't have a successful history in the Bronx, they have a big advantage in starting pitching. I won't go through all the stats, but Haren dominates across the board in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Plus, Haren has a decent history against the Yanks with an OPS under .690 and ERA under 3.8, where Burnett is serving up a .884 OPS and over 4.5 ERA to the Angels. The Yankees are coming off a big win streak with two losses. I generally like to fade team off win streaks in that second game after a loss, but we will try that theory here on the third game. I'm rolling with Haren and the Angels.
In the Tigers/Indians under, I like both pitchers to continue pitching well for the rest of the year. Masterson has been masterful and Fister is solid. Masterson's 4.3 WAR is top 10 MLB among starters and Fister's 3.2 is top 20. The Tigers have had some trouble scoring of late and historically in Cleveland. The Indians injured lineup has hurt their offense. We can call this a public fade (whatever that adds...probably not much anymore) too since 80%+ all bets are on the over. I'm rolling under here.
KC/TB under you have a great under ballpark, a new James Shields who is extending his success beyond the all-star break and a somewhat undervalued Jeff Francis. The Royals have been playing to the under lately and they are catching Shields tonight. Tampa is always a solid under bet, especially at home and the ump Kulpa is rocking a 64.4% strike rate. I think this one stays under the posted total.
In the Braves game, Beachy versus Hensley is one of the biggest pitching mismatches on the board according to the advanced stats. I've faded the Marlins successfully the last two days, so why not three in a row. I don't see the Marlins bats getting any better than yesterday and I am confident Ramirez does not play for the Marlins. With Heyward back in the lineup for the Braves versus a right handed pitcher, I think the Braves lineup can put another 8 or so up on the board today. I see no reason to back the fish here and I got a nice number so I'm rolling with the Braves ML.

Let's see where the line movement goes on these plays. Hopefully, we beat the closer in each of them just like yesterday. Good luck!

**BiffTFinancial** · 08-09-11, 07:23 AM

like the plays, BOL LTA. will be on the KC/TB under, just not sure if FF or game yet. agree with your take on Tigers/Tribe too.

**Full-Grown** · 08-09-11, 09:03 AM

Hey LTA, I'm on Atlanta as well today. My favorite play on the board.

I was wondering why do you think the majority of the public is on the over in the Cleveland Detroit game? Just because their offense are known to be good? With those 2 era's I can't figure out why 69% of the public is on the over. With this being such an important game for both teams I definitely think we're going to see a pitchers duel. And advanced stats for both pitchers are solid as well. I just can't figure out why so many people are on the over. What do you think?

**Full-Grown** · 08-09-11, 09:04 AM

Edited last post after I posted here

**JR007** · 08-09-11, 11:25 AM

someone thinks wang's going to get "shelled" tonight.....-182...up 40 cents

**Full-Grown** · 08-09-11, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by JR007

someone thinks wang's going to get "shelled" tonight.....-182...up 40 cents

Where do you see that? What site?

**GoggsViggs** · 08-09-11, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Was driving home in the car from work, heard we won the White Sox game and were up comfortably in the 9th inning of both the Padres and Braves games. I park and get out of the garage expecting the 3 - 0 sweep with a nice +3.5x day. Instead, I walk in, kiss the baby and wife and find that Heath Bell blew the save.

That fat stroke...that slide into the pitchers mound in the All-Star game was one of the lamest things I have seen.

Damn, we went from +3.5x to +0.425. Oh well, that's baseball for better or worse. I'll update the record really quick and then move onto Thursday's card. Already started looking at that one earlier. Good luck to anyone that has late game plays.

ya bro. that' was a sick loss. can't cap that kinda of epic fail. Heath Bell is now on my $hit list, Fat boy owes me money. no X-mas card from me, that's for sure.

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 12:40 PM

Not encouraged by the line movement in the angels play. That was a close call to make it a play to begin with so may buy back a half unit on the yanks if the line continues to move that way. Lets see what happens with the line throughout the day...

**JR007** · 08-09-11, 01:31 PM

sorry should have clarified, matchbook (totals) jumped a run from 8.5 to 9.5...value is gone

**Redscot** · 08-09-11, 05:29 PM

Fell off the first page my brother, we can't have that

. Bumpelstiltskins.

Wow, been busy as hell lately on the farm, tailed ya early on the way out this morning, haven't had time to look at much. Appreciate your efforts bro.

GL on your plays tonight

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 06:07 PM

Sticking with the Angels and Haren, but this is the first day in quite a while where we did not beat the closer in the majority of our plays. Not what we like, but I also like these plays so we will see. I have a few leans for the late games, so lets just see what happens...lets go angels and braves...and no scoring in cleveland or tb...good luck tonight!

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Fell off the first page my brother, we can't have that

. Bumpelstiltskins.

Wow, been busy as hell lately on the farm, tailed ya early on the way out this morning, haven't had time to look at much. Appreciate your efforts bro.

GL on your plays tonight

Good luck Red!

**fly fisher** · 08-09-11, 06:09 PM

I have faith in you and I am tailing

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by fly fisher

I have faith in you and I am tailing

Good luck!

**Redscot** · 08-09-11, 08:16 PM

K.C./T.B. was a walk in the park. Nice call. Really hoping to ride in this Angels play, Yanks are the scourge of the earth to me. Rain...rain...rain Cleveland, I am ok with that

.

Late games....Holy Chalk Batman! Honestly nothing stands out to me, side, R/L, O/U. Stumped.

Only slight lean may be Zona under. I ain't a believer in Hou. bats just yet, and I think Lyles should put up a respectable effort.

Have a good one LTA. Will wait around to see if you convince me of a late play.

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

K.C./T.B. was a walk in the park. Nice call. Really hoping to ride in this Angels play, Yanks are the scourge of the earth to me. Rain...rain...rain Cleveland, I am ok with that

.

Late games....Holy Chalk Batman! Honestly nothing stands out to me, side, R/L, O/U. Stumped.

Only slight lean may be Zona under. I ain't a believer in Hou. bats just yet, and I think Lyles should put up a respectable effort.

Have a good one LTA. Will wait around to see if you convince me of a late play.

Just got home from work...and sure enough, just like yesterday, I walk into the house to find that another California bullpen has given up a three run or more lead. Unreal....hopefully the Angels can find some way to pull this one out in the top of the 9th by scoring some runs and then holding the lead.

We really need that one, plus it would make me feel good

I can't believe they resumed that game in Detroit...not looking good in that one but maybe the hitters got as cold as the starting pitchers were to the start the game.

No plays for the late games. Was leaning to the under in the Pit/SF game but both my locals moved down to 6.5 and I'm not playing it at that number. I also like the Philly -1.5 RL, but I'll hold off and move onto Wednesday's cards.

We really need this Angels game...man I hope we cash it

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 09:52 PM

Couldn't even be happy about that Angels win, because almost simultaneously as the Angels won, the Braves gave up a three run lead in the bottom of the 7th...

Baseball is so cruel

**funnyman** · 08-09-11, 10:13 PM

Atlanta has a good bullpen. They have a good chance to win this. Detroit game looks good also.

**Redscot** · 08-09-11, 10:17 PM

WTF is up with your Bullpens lately my man? Tough luck. Oh, and break up the 'Stros!

Battle of the pens gotta favor our chances here, and quietly the Detroit game is moving along.

**italianbandit** · 08-09-11, 10:40 PM

"There are 2 things that are important in life, good friends and a strong bullpen. " George Will

**pacocn** · 08-09-11, 10:49 PM

Lta, nice call on detroit and kc lets bring home the
braves.

**Redscot** · 08-09-11, 10:50 PM

Come on Atlanta and Detroit.....

09 Aug 2011 17:58 Internet (www.bancajuancitosport.com) Sesion # 81131 6Parlay

901 AT Atlanta Braves -138

8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 905 AT Colorado Rockies +110 [3,2]
8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 917 AT Detroit Tigers +115

8/9/2011 7:05:00 PM 921 AT Oakland Athletics +1½ -165 [4,1]
8/9/2011 7:05:00 PM 926 AT Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +110 [0,4]
8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 927 AT Seattle Mariners Over +8 -120

8/9/2011 8:05:00 PM 100/4715 # 51741

**tonyp0387** · 08-09-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Come on Atlanta and Detroit.....

09 Aug 2011 17:58 Internet (www.bancajuancitosport.com) Sesion # 81131 6Parlay

901 AT Atlanta Braves -138

8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 905 AT Colorado Rockies +110 [3,2]
8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 917 AT Detroit Tigers +115

8/9/2011 7:05:00 PM 921 AT Oakland Athletics +1½ -165 [4,1]
8/9/2011 7:05:00 PM 926 AT Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +110 [0,4]
8/9/2011 7:10:00 PM 927 AT Seattle Mariners Over +8 -120

8/9/2011 8:05:00 PM 100/4715 # 51741

Wow sick payout . get it

**pacocn** · 08-09-11, 10:55 PM

braves win

**Redscot** · 08-09-11, 10:58 PM

Looking like a clean sweep tonight LTA, you are on fire bro! Well done.

**Love The Action** · 08-09-11, 10:59 PM

MLB 8/10/11

Play #1

Royals ML (+126) 2x (Locked)

Play #2

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(-125) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Tigers ML (+135) 1.25x (Locked)

I love all three of these plays. The Royals play is one of my biggest ML plays in awhile. Just as an FYI, due to some recent influx in bonus money at work, I am increasing my unit size once again. Right before I switched my MLB plays over from my thread in the NBA forum to this one around July 11th, I used my +100x in NBA profit to increase my unit size by about 80%. Now that I have this bonus money to invest, I am going to increase my unit size once more and I will now be operating on an almost 150% increase over my original unit size at the beginning of the season. Consequently, this means that all of my plays will be for more money and I will generally be operating on a smaller 1x - 5x unit scale moving forward. Therefore, my 2x or 3x plays now are really my higher rated plays and that shows how much I like this Royals play. All of these changes make my overall unit count misleading, because all of the units won in this thread have been worth much more than my units were valued at the start of the season and this is also true for the time period moving forward. However, the only thing that matters is getting value in plays by beating closers and grinding out profit in whatever form.

Writeups to come, but I wanted to get these plays posted now before any of the lines move. Good luck.