Originally posted by The Coach's Desk
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Line movement supporting you here...get that money!
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Early Game Action Parlay (win or lose not for records)
Cubs ML/Over 7.5
Risk 0.25x to win 0.75x
I like the correlation here with the Cubs bats running hot which has lead to their recent winning streak. With Zambrano pitching you get another hitter in the lineup as he is hitting .333 on the year to date. The Reds bats are always dangerous, but Zambrano has pitched better against the Reds lineup in the past than Cueto has pitched against the Cubs. The wind is a non-factor today and I don't expect as many runners to be stranded like yesterday. Cueto is solid and has made me money this year backing him both on the ML and with unders, however, his BABIP is really low and he does not get enough strike outs that support such a low BABIP. Consequently, he might start regressing just a bit and give up a few more runs than he has up until now. I will be watching this game with the family but I don't make bets that I don't believe 100% in. Even though this is an action bet, I still think we cash this parlay ticket. Good luck!Comment -
Originally posted by Love The Action
Ahh, fcuk it! You convinced me,
, gotta roll with the hot hand with a small play. If nothing else makes the game more interesting. Have fun with the fam my man.
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Let's get it RedOriginally posted by RedscotAhh, fcuk it! You convinced me,, gotta roll with the hot hand with a small play. If nothing else makes the game more interesting. Have fun with the fam my man. 
Good luck today bud
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cubs ml for meComment -
What makes you think Cueto isn't already being priced to his regression?Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
G1, you are more a student of these types of things than I, but wouldn't the pricing to regression be a gradual thing? Hence the bettor trying to get in early on the regression before it gets full blown in the books #'s?Originally posted by God1Comment -
Originally posted by God1- I never said his potential regression was not accurately priced in the line. My statements clearly point out the potential regression, but never go any further.
- However, I would also point out that the market apparently felt that that Cueto was overpriced in this start -- most likely due to the potential regression at least in part -- as the Reds dropped 7 cents at Pinny from -133 to -126 and even more at Matchbook and Greek. Therefore, the market seems to think the regression was not properly priced. Although, I will clarify that other factors also played a role in the Reds' drop in price.
Based on the market move, what makes you think Cueto's regression was accurately priced?Comment -
His projected progression isn't priced in there because they know the majority of the public will bet on the Reds so they'll charge whatever they think they can charge Joe Public.Comment -
I meant regressionComment -
the under lines up nicely in all factors but one in the Giants game,............ watching the boardComment -
Yep...late money on the over....we'll see.Originally posted by JR007Comment -
When you're hot you're hot brother. Looking good on this action parlay. I think we owe it to ourselves to throw a little lotto parlay out there tonight and see how far we can take this hot streak. If you have the time throw me a 9 teamer (max my book takes) for the hell of it. A dollar and a dream...................................
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I think a lot of people are looking at the weather. The wind is blowing out at 12 mph to left field from WSW. However, Hamels has a 1.69 GB/FB and Cain over 1. Plus, they are both strike out guys as well with Cain's K% over 19% and Hamels over 23%.Originally posted by JR007
Both lineups were improved at the trade deadline and the Phillies have been scoring in bunches lately. I think some of those factors have influenced late money on the over. However, I'm not buying out and remain confident in the play. I think the intensity and adrenaline will be in full effect and I am firm believer that those types of grudge match games lend themselves to the under. I guess we'll find out shortly....Comment -
"never second guess your decisions"........"General Sherman"Comment -
And I never doOriginally posted by JR007
Perhaps that is my confidence or stubbornness, but the idea of buying out of plays because of late movement is not a profitable proposition long term.
In this game, the juice started heading back heavy on the under right before the game anyway. Let's cash this under ticket JR. Good luck
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thanks for that cubs parlay, your the man
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An error allowing Utley to get to third and then a fvcking passed ball.
The Giants are one of the better defensive teams but that is pathetic and could end up costing us this under.Comment -
It's time for the Yanks to put a hurting to Lackey. Down 2-0 with a guy on second and no outs...gotta score some runs here.Comment -
Swisher double play with bases loaded no outs...that guy is such a dork...Comment -
Great looking line movement supporting both the Cardinal under and TB under. If the totals hold stead where they currently are, we will beat the closer in those games and the Atlanta under which already made its move to the under earlier in the day. Let's see what happens with the late money. As long as we continue beating closers like we have, the cashing tickets will follow...
Good luck to everyone tonight.
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Looks like they are going to open Sunday's Brewers/Astros game at 7.5. I was hoping they would be slipping and open at 8. That was a possible big play at 8...at 7.5 I am not so sure I can stake it as high.Comment -
Cash that S.F. under, they had your knickers in a bundle early with that start.
Yanks/Sox plenty of time still, rivalry games can be tough to read at times.
Liking tonight's card a lot LTA, let's get that escarole. GL all
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LTA
just parlayed your under Oak/Tb with CFL Ham/Cal ov 50.5
Thanks
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Originally posted by RedscotCash that S.F. under, they had your knickers in a bundle early with that start.
Yanks/Sox plenty of time still, rivalry games can be tough to read at times.
Liking tonight's card a lot LTA, let's get that escarole. GL all
There's nothing I hate worse than poor defense and errors...those are nothing more than mental mistakes and mental mistakes should not be tolerated in the MLB with those salary levels.
We'll see about the Yanks game...that one is looking more and more like a poor play. We'll see...pretty much need a miraculous comeback at this point.
Loving our final three plays though and I expect a profitable night. Going to go through my final leans now and see if there is a 6th play worth making or if we just keep it at 5.
Good luck tonight Red
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Originally posted by The Coach's DeskLTA
just parlayed your under Oak/Tb with CFL Ham/Cal ov 50.5
Thanks
Good luck Coach!
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Heading out for dinner....the only possible addition would a half unit to the Braves under...other than that, the card is final. BOL..
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MLB Recap 8/6/11
2 - 2 - 1 = -0.33x
Got screwed out of our 1.5x play on the TB under with 3 meaningless runs in the last two innings. Frustrating, but we move on with a slight loss on the day in preparation of a big Sunday. At least the action parlay hit...
MLB Season 2011
323 - 291 = +31.295x
Excited about Sunday...just locked in our first two plays and will probably end up with a big card with at least a couple multiple unit plays.
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MLB 8/7/11
Play #1
Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
Play #2
Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I will most likely add 0.50x to 1x to both of these plays once they drop a bit so I can get plus odds on 7. Because of the heavy juice, I would rather give up the half run here in exchange for plus odds so as to minimize some of the risk (and unfortunately my odds of cashing). My model has both of these around 6.5 so let's see what happens with the lines tomorrow. I'm loving tomorrow's card. In addition to these plays, I am also looking at the Cardinals hard but missed the early run. Let's see if they come back down or if we take them on the -1RL. It looks as though we will have a big card on Sunday. Let's cash'em all! Off to bed now, get some sleep and then get up early to make sure we lock the rest of our plays in before the lines move on them. Good luck
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I like the under in the Pirates game. Any thoughts?Comment -
Great looking line movement so far on the under. However, that one is a pass for me. It's too difficult for me to trust Pirates pitching right now. All of their starters have started regressing as their stats told us they would.Originally posted by italianbandit
Good luck if you play it....
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I wouldnt trust the under in that game by the way both teams have been playing eachother. Good luck thoughOriginally posted by italianbanditComment -
Wow, thought we deserved better from that card yesterday, really liked it. Oh well, that's the game we are in. Another day another dollar.
Last night before hitting the hay I looked at the lines and knew you'd be on those 2 unders. I am a little surprised I actually got Kershaw at +105 at 7. They giving that much respect to Zona's offense?
LTA do you use any non-paid sites to track line movement? If not which paid site do you use bro?
Gotta love Sundays, here's hoping you have no commitments and can kick back with the fam and cash some tickets.
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Added 1x to Play #1 Milwaukee/Houston under for total of 2x (1x under (7.5)(-120) and 1x under (7)(+100)) (Locked)Originally posted by Love The ActionMLB 8/7/11
Play #1
Milwaukee/Houston under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
Play #2
Dodgers/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
I will most likely add 0.50x to 1x to both of these plays once they drop a bit so I can get plus odds on 7. Because of the heavy juice, I would rather give up the half run here in exchange for plus odds so as to minimize some of the risk (and unfortunately my odds of cashing). My model has both of these around 6.5 so let's see what happens with the lines tomorrow. I'm loving tomorrow's card. In addition to these plays, I am also looking at the Cardinals hard but missed the early run. Let's see if they come back down or if we take them on the -1RL. It looks as though we will have a big card on Sunday. Let's cash'em all! Off to bed now, get some sleep and then get up early to make sure we lock the rest of our plays in before the lines move on them. Good luck
Added 1x to Play #2 Dodgers/Diamondbacks under for total of 2x (1x under (7.5)(-120) and 1x under (7)(+100)) (Locked)
As promised, I am making both of these 2x plays.
Greinke has been underpriced all year because of some tough luck defense and not-so-good standard stats. However, his defense independent stats have always been great. Now that his standard stats are catching up, we aren't getting as much value. This total would have opened at 8 runs a month ago, but now we see 7.5. I still think we see some value as my model has this one closer to 6.5. Because of all the runs the Brewers and Astros scored this series so far, you are going to see the majority of bets on the over. However, we know better. Norris is by far the Astros best pitcher and I am not worried about his blister. He has solid advanced stats and has pitched very well against this Brewers lineup in the past. I expect the Brewers to go back to the team that struggles offensively on the road against Norris today. We have an ump with no lean but a 63.1% strike rate and r/p/gm average just over 8.
In the other game, Kershaw is a beast and Kennedy has solid advanced stats. Now that he is getting a few more ground balls to go with the strikeouts, he is a much more viable under pitcher. I still continue to think the absence of Drew will hurt this AZ lineup at some point. They have had some high scoring games in this series so far, but I expect both starting pitchers to roll today. My model also has this one closer to 6.5, so I think there is a bit of value here on the under with a score of 8 required to beat us. On both of these games I am splitting my stake between 7.5 with heavy juice and 7 with no juice. Even though I reduce my odds of cashing, I would rather reduce my risk because I think both of these plays safely stay under the posted totals and am staking 2x on each of them. Good luck.Comment -
Just got burnt by that late home run in the Oakland game. That was the one that hurt...turned a +1.5x night into a small loss (which was mitigated by the parlay in my account but not for the records).Originally posted by RedscotWow, thought we deserved better from that card yesterday, really liked it. Oh well, that's the game we are in. Another day another dollar.
Last night before hitting the hay I looked at the lines and knew you'd be on those 2 unders. I am a little surprised I actually got Kershaw at +105 at 7. They giving that much respect to Zona's offense?
LTA do you use any non-paid sites to track line movement? If not which paid site do you use bro?
Gotta love Sundays, here's hoping you have no commitments and can kick back with the fam and cash some tickets.
I use SBR odds on my phone a lot, but generally use sports insights when I have access to my laptop.
Good luck today
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