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- Just some quick hits on this one. You have Masterson v. Bedard.
- Bedard did not look good in his first start back off the DL last week for Seattle, but I expect a big performance today. The Indians have not been hitting well, especially against lefties. Historically, that lineup does not fare well against Bedard.
- Both pitchers have great advanced starts with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's.
- Masterson has a solid history against the Red Sox lineup limiting them to a .163 BAA and OPS under .59.
- The ump is Angel Hernandez who is 10-15 o/u, with a 63% strike rate, runs/gm average under 7.61 and K/BB over 2.
- Pinny, 5D and Matchbook have all moved to juice the under despite the majority of bets on the over.
- Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
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Lta, we have another "hit me with your best shot" contest today
i hope u have time to post, also any thoughts on det/tex Over 9Comment -
Play #2
Philly/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)
- Lee v. MBaum in a battle of two of my favorite lefties.
- Both pitchers had rough outtings recently and I expect big bounce-back performances in this expansive ballpark. MBaum has actually a bit of a rough time in SF this season, but that does not concern me as their has not been any hint of struggles in SF previous to this season. He will be pumped to face Lee and vice versa with this rematch from the 2010 NLCS. Both pitchers will be sharp.
- This is the lowest set total of the season between these two teams...the total is set that low for a reason.
- I don't need to recite these two pitchers' advanced stats, but they are dominant. Both pitchers have FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA ratings in the high 2's or low 3's. It is no secret that these are two of the most dominant lefties in the game.
- Philly's left-handed heavy hitters have never faced Baumgarner so he has the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor here, whereas Lee has fared very well against the Giants in the past.
- I couldn't get 6.5 because both my locals opened at 6, so I am going to jump on the plus odds here to avoid the juice. I expect Pinny, Greek and Matchbook to drop to 6 at some point today. If they stay at 6.5, we may need to reevaluate some things.
- I don't have any ump assignments available at this time, but if we get an under leaning ump (perhaps one of Dex's A4 umps) we may add to this 1x play. Good luck.
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Nice steady profits, LTA. Keep it up.Comment -
Play #3
Toronto/TB over (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)
I was lucky to get this price as the whole market has started to make a move. Sure enough, about five minutes after I locked it in, my local made the move to -110. Davis is horrible...his SIERA is bottom 5 MLB. Cecil, although he has pitched well, is bound to regress at some point and I think that is today. I hate that this is an early getaway game, which generally favors the under, but I still have to roll with the over here. We have faded Davis for 3 straight cashing tickets on the over in his last three games and I expect that roll to continue today. Toronto should light him up. The question is whether TB can reciprocate against Cecil. I think we see a 5-4 type final score. The ump has a low strike rate at 62%, with a runs/gm average of 8.22. I like the over today for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Cool...unfortunately, all of my plays are rated the same at 1x so far. I will probably submit the Red Sox under though.
I'll try to get back to you on the Texas game once I look at it a little more closely later today at work. Ogando is tough, but no one likes Penny. Good luck if you play it!Comment -
Off to work...here is the card so far. I may add units to the Red Sox under and Giants under. Let's monitor the line in the TB over. We need to be careful with that one...Pinny just dropped to 8 as I type. That sucks balls. I generally don't buy out of plays, but....we'll wait and see, both of my locals still at 8.5.
I have not had a chance to go through the entire card yet, but here are some of my leans as of right now:
Giants ML
Natties over
Balty over (need to look at this one deeper, Britton's advanced stats aren't that bad and neither are Francis')
Angels (if Haren on the mound)Comment -
[quote=Love The Action;10916984] Off to work...here is the card so far. I may add units to the Red Sox under and Giants under. Let's monitor the line in the TB over. We need to be careful with that one...Pinny just dropped to 8 as I type. That sucks balls. I generally don't buy out of plays, but....we'll wait and see, both of my locals still at 8.5.
What's even more interesting is Bookmaker opened that line up at 9. It went to 8 and a half last night and then 8 this morning.Comment -
All RLM.
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Line back to 8.5 in the tb over at pinny...
Back in business with this one boys...Comment -
Added to Play #2 0.50x for total of 1.5x Phils/Giants under (6)(+100) (Locked)
Busy at work..may add more later..Comment -
what's upComment -
LTA, tailed you on the Padres winner from last night. Thanks for the chicken dinner!
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Jennings goes boom! Tied at 4, cash this biznitch. Here's to you LTA, good call bud.
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Hey guys...super busy with work but wanted to check in.
We cashed our first play (always nice to see some luck go our way for once) and are sticking with the indians/red sox under for 1x and the philly/giants under for 1.5x. The only other play we might make is a 1x play on the angels -1RL.
I will post if I lock it. Good luck to everyone tonight!Comment -
gl with the indians/redsox total. like it and im riding alongComment -
Glad to see you hit the day gm. sux i was busy and didnt have a chance to drop by..with you on the cle/bos under, will think about the sf under but more than likely ill be on frisco in that gm..GL tonightComment -
Bumgarner is getting smashed all round the park in the early stages. Need to get him out of the game fast.Comment -
Thanks for the Philly pick.
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Starting to feel a nice little run starting....
What does everyone think about Fridays card...I hate it personally...went to bed early yesterday after a rough day at work so getting my forest first look at todays card. Gotta say, nothing I like too much on first glance...but I'm sure I find something once I dig deeper...about to do that right now. Good luck gentlemen.Comment -
honestly yesterdays card and todays i find less than thrilling and im not the type to normally say that....sure didnt stop me from bleeding units on yesterdays card, or stop me from getting down on a few overnights (not sure i keep any just thought i may have a opportunity to get out and make a little free money
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MLB Recap 8/4/11
2 - 1 = +1.45
Got a bit lucky for those extra inning runs in Toronto, but then got unlucky with that late BS 9th inning run in the Clev/Bos game to cost us the push and a 2-0-1 day. While I'm annoyed I didn't play my leans on the KC over and Angels -1RL, we still had a nice profitable day, so no complaints out of me. Let's just keep grinding out profit on a consistent basis and we will be just fine. Good luck.
MLB Season 2011
316 - 289 = +26.625x
Variance is starting to go our way after that rough July. We've had three winning months with April, May and June and one really rough month with July. Time to put August in the same winning category as the first three months of the season. Good luck.
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MLB 8/5/11
Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)
- I could have gotten 9.5 with heavy juice, but rolled with 9 at plus odds instead. I did this because I think this one stays way under or goes way over. However, I am investing in the under.
- Colon is pitching against Lester. Say what you will about Colon -- and I have because I watched him pitch in Chicago for the White Sox and he was a fat, lazy POS -- however, I must admit that he has pitched quite well this year. In addition, thanks to some inside info from SBR's very own Redscot, we know that Colon worked out hard all off-season and is highly motivated to have a good year in order to cash in on what could be his final contract. I don't care if Colon is motivated by money, as long as he is motivated. If you look at his stats, you can see that he has pitched well all year. Colon has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.3. His BABIP does not evidence any extreme luck with it sitting at .300 and he has a healthy 72.1% LOB%. With Colon getting much-needed strikeouts as evidenced by his K% over 21% and crucial ground ball as shown by his GB/FB of 1.33, I think he limits the Red Sox tonight. His splits are consistent home/away and lefty/righty so nothing concerns me from that aspect and he has a solid history against Boston. In his career he has held this vaunted Red Sox lineup to a .195 BAA and an OPS under .600. That impresses me and his strong history against Boston was the clincher for me on this play. However, Lester also has impressed.
- Lester has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3.5. His K% is over 23% and he gets ground balls as well with a solid 1.43 GB/FB. Even though the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years (which means you should generally always play the Yanks when they face lefties), they have not succeeded much against Lester who has held that dangerous lineup to a BAA under .240 and an OPS under .700 in going 8 -1 against the Bombers in his career. I don't think there is another lefty in the league who has given the Yanks as many problems as Lester so I think we are safe with the under here as I expect a nice game from both Colon and Lester.
- Even though both offenses are two of the best in the league, both teams also have top 10 bullpens and top 5 offenses. My model has this one at 8.2, so I really like that a total of 10 has to beat us. I think that will be tough with these two pitchers going tonight.
- I expect this to be playoff atmostphere and its a big TV game. The public is pounding the over as expected, yet we have seen early RLM on the under. I agree with the big money here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. No ump assignments yet, but if we get an under leaning ump and the line stays steady, we may add to this play. Good luck.
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Off to work...excited about the Yanks/Red Sox under.
The more in-depth I looked at today's card, the more I like it and have quite a few leans. I should have some time at work, so I will post all of my leans and plays a little later. Good luck to everyone today!
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