LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by jimmcc01

Hey LTA, thanks for the work that you do.

Curious... do you have any stats on O/U after all star break. Looks like most games are going over. hard to take any under, even with the best pitchers.

Also, how much do you look at public plays? and game 1 of a series when it comes to public plays.

thanks for any input.

You will have to clarify what you are asking with respect to public plays and first game of a series. The way you have phrased your question is vague and could be answered myriad of ways...please narrow it down and let me know what you are talking about.

There have been more overs than unders since the alll star break, but not anywhere near the extreme you referenced. In the last thirty days, not including extra ining games, there have been 175 overs to 156 unders. In all games in the last 30 days there have 189 overs to 170 unders. In the last 7 days there have been 55 overs to 43 unders.

So there has been an over lean since the alll star break. However, I have cashed just as many overs as unders lately...its like anything, you just have to pick your spots...bol..

**funnyman** · 08-02-11, 06:35 AM

Like the Mil. under. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by funnyman

Like the Mil. under. Good luck.

Same to you

Looks like I will beat the closer in that one again too as long as it continues dropping. We've been beating closers with consistency, which is very important. Now we just need those plays to equate to winners more consistently. As long as you beat closers, that will equate to winning over the long term, but I am growing impatient.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

**BigDan** · 08-02-11, 07:00 AM

totals were brutal on me yesterday, what a miserable 5th inning by stl, not only Carp but again bad defense reared its ugly head that inning crushing what should have been a pretty damn easy under.....think i almost have to take a another crack at zona with those prices as sf still isnt hitting and d-bags are on all cylinders right now. like the under as well...GL brother.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

[/list]
MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Baltimore/KC over (9) 1x (Locked)

Simon v. Chen
I think this one is going to end up getting juiced on the over -120 at some point later today or even go up to 9.5. That is why I am locking it in now.
Baltimore has not hit lefties very well in their last ten games, but that is deceiving because they only faced Romero who shut them out. Against Chen, that lineup is hitting over .330 BAA. Chen has poor advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or low 5's. Plus, he throws too many fly balls for my taste with a GB/FB under .9 and not enough strikeout with a low K% of 14%.
Simon actually has solid advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. However, the KC bats have been hot lately and I expect that to continue tonight against Simon who has faced them once in the past and allowed a BAA over.300.
Baltimore is a bad team that can hit. They are ranked at the bottom of bullpen and fielding but top 11 in offense. That is a good sign for tonight. Similarly, the Royals have a solid offense (especially lately) with a bit better bullpen and just as bad defense. I expect sloppy defense to play a role tonight and get us some extra runs with these poor fielding teams.
No ump available at this time, but I will be busy at work and do not want to lose value on this play so I am locking in at 1x now. GL.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

totals were brutal on me yesterday, what a miserable 5th inning by stl, not only Carp but again bad defense reared its ugly head that inning crushing what should have been a pretty damn easy under.....think i almost have to take a another crack at zona with those prices as sf still isnt hitting and d-bags are on all cylinders right now. like the under as well...GL brother.

Yesterday is in the past, onto today. Nothing we can do about it now....

I really like the under in the AZ/SF game...Hudson should pitch well tonight against a struggling Giants offense and he needs a nice game after a couple of clunkers. Lincecum is rounding into shape right now and this is the part of the season he historically takes over. Check out his stats and he is one of the rare pitchers who gets better later in the season. Good luck to you as well BD

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Baltimore/KC over (9) 1x (Locked)

Simon v. Chen
I think this one is going to end up getting juiced on the over -120 at some point later today or even go up to 9.5. That is why I am locking it in now.
Baltimore has not hit lefties very well in their last ten games, but that is deceiving because they only faced Romero who shut them out. Against Chen, that lineup is hitting over .330 BAA. Chen has poor advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or low 5's. Plus, he throws too many fly balls for my taste with a GB/FB under .9 and not enough strikeout with a low K% of 14%.
Simon actually has solid advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. However, the KC bats have been hot lately and I expect that to continue tonight against Simon who has faced them once in the past and allowed a BAA over.300.
Baltimore is a bad team that can hit. They are ranked at the bottom of bullpen and fielding but top 11 in offense. That is a good sign for tonight. Similarly, the Royals have a solid offense (especially lately) with a bit better bullpen and just as bad defense. I expect sloppy defense to play a role tonight and get us some extra runs with these poor fielding teams.
No ump available at this time, but I will be busy at work and do not want to lose value on this play so I am locking in at 1x now. GL.

Play #4

Cincy/Houston under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Gotta run to work, but I like the under today's game much more than yesterday.
Even though Cincy kills lefties, Wandy has a nice history against their lineup (especially Jay Bruce) and his standard and advanced splits show he is a much better pitcher at home.
Bailey has dominated the Astros in his career and I think he is pitching better of late in a return to his early season form (he was dominant early this year).
I worry a bit about Houston's defense and bullpen, but I expect Wandy to put in at least a full 7 innings today and limit the Reds to three runs or less. I don't think the Astros AAA hitters (outside of El Cabayo) will hit much today off Bailey.
With Reyburn as the ump and his slight under lean, 8 run/game average and 63% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

**jimmcc01** · 08-02-11, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

There have been more overs than unders since the alll star break, but not anywhere near the extreme you referenced. In the last thirty days, not including extra ining games, there have been 175 overs to 156 unders. In all games in the last 30 days there have 189 overs to 170 unders. In the last 7 days there have been 55 overs to 43 unders.

Thanks LTA, thats what I was wondering.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Baltimore/KC over (9) 1x (Locked)

Simon v. Chen
I think this one is going to end up getting juiced on the over -120 at some point later today or even go up to 9.5. That is why I am locking it in now.
Baltimore has not hit lefties very well in their last ten games, but that is deceiving because they only faced Romero who shut them out. Against Chen, that lineup is hitting over .330 BAA. Chen has poor advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or low 5's. Plus, he throws too many fly balls for my taste with a GB/FB under .9 and not enough strikeout with a low K% of 14%.
Simon actually has solid advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. However, the KC bats have been hot lately and I expect that to continue tonight against Simon who has faced them once in the past and allowed a BAA over.300.
Baltimore is a bad team that can hit. They are ranked at the bottom of bullpen and fielding but top 11 in offense. That is a good sign for tonight. Similarly, the Royals have a solid offense (especially lately) with a bit better bullpen and just as bad defense. I expect sloppy defense to play a role tonight and get us some extra runs with these poor fielding teams.
No ump available at this time, but I will be busy at work and do not want to lose value on this play so I am locking in at 1x now. GL.

Play #4

Cincy/Houston under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Gotta run to work, but I like the under today's game much more than yesterday.
Even though Cincy kills lefties, Wandy has a nice history against their lineup (especially Jay Bruce) and his standard and advanced splits show he is a much better pitcher at home.
Bailey has dominated the Astros in his career and I think he is pitching better of late in a return to his early season form (he was dominant early this year).
I worry a bit about Houston's defense and bullpen, but I expect Wandy to put in at least a full 7 innings today and limit the Reds to three runs or less. I don't think the Astros AAA hitters (outside of El Cabayo) will hit much today off Bailey.
With Reyburn as the ump and his slight under lean, 8 run/game average and 63% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Philly/Rockies over (10) 1x (Locked)

At work on my phone so I cant give you a big writeup, but both pitchers have piss poor histories against these lineups and poor advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA above 4.5. Cook has even worse stats at home than away, with Kendrick performing worse on the road. The phillies are hitting well since the trade and the Rox will have Helton back after resting yesrerday (he has killed Kendrick throughout his career). Cook should return to poor form ater his great start last week against the punchless dodgers. I expect more offense out of Philly this 2h and that should be evident tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 09:39 AM

Looks like I will have a big card tonight....there are quite a few plays of value according to my model and a few others I like for different reasons...monster tuesdays...lets roll.

**ParlayKing** · 08-02-11, 10:40 AM

Gl today LTA, let's bounce back.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by ParlayKing

Gl today LTA, let's bounce back.

**blumpkin** · 08-02-11, 10:45 AM

when you get a chance just curious to know out of these 5 which if you had to pick are you most confident in?

**Redscot** · 08-02-11, 11:03 AM

Wow, liking the card today my man 5 plays already. Phil's game already at a juiced 10 1/2 at my local book.

GL today man, keep em coming

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by blumpkin

when you get a chance just curious to know out of these 5 which if you had to pick are you most confident in?

I have them all rated equally as a 1x play. If I liked one more than the others, I would play that one for more units. Sorry...I do like the rockies over quite a bit, but will not be adding units at 10.5. The giants under is also a possible play to which I may add units. Hope that helps...bol

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Baltimore/KC over (9) 1x (Locked)

Simon v. Chen
I think this one is going to end up getting juiced on the over -120 at some point later today or even go up to 9.5. That is why I am locking it in now.
Baltimore has not hit lefties very well in their last ten games, but that is deceiving because they only faced Romero who shut them out. Against Chen, that lineup is hitting over .330 BAA. Chen has poor advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or low 5's. Plus, he throws too many fly balls for my taste with a GB/FB under .9 and not enough strikeout with a low K% of 14%.
Simon actually has solid advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. However, the KC bats have been hot lately and I expect that to continue tonight against Simon who has faced them once in the past and allowed a BAA over.300.
Baltimore is a bad team that can hit. They are ranked at the bottom of bullpen and fielding but top 11 in offense. That is a good sign for tonight. Similarly, the Royals have a solid offense (especially lately) with a bit better bullpen and just as bad defense. I expect sloppy defense to play a role tonight and get us some extra runs with these poor fielding teams.
No ump available at this time, but I will be busy at work and do not want to lose value on this play so I am locking in at 1x now. GL.

Play #4

Cincy/Houston under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Gotta run to work, but I like the under today's game much more than yesterday.
Even though Cincy kills lefties, Wandy has a nice history against their lineup (especially Jay Bruce) and his standard and advanced splits show he is a much better pitcher at home.
Bailey has dominated the Astros in his career and I think he is pitching better of late in a return to his early season form (he was dominant early this year).
I worry a bit about Houston's defense and bullpen, but I expect Wandy to put in at least a full 7 innings today and limit the Reds to three runs or less. I don't think the Astros AAA hitters (outside of El Cabayo) will hit much today off Bailey.
With Reyburn as the ump and his slight under lean, 8 run/game average and 63% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Philly/Rockies over (10) 1x (Locked)

At work on my phone so I cant give you a big writeup, but both pitchers have piss poor histories against these lineups and poor advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA above 4.5. Cook has even worse stats at home than away, with Kendrick performing worse on the road. The phillies are hitting well since the trade and the Rox will have Helton back after resting yesrerday (he has killed Kendrick throughout his career). Cook should return to poor form ater his great start last week against the punchless dodgers. I expect more offense out of Philly this 2h and that should be evident tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Latos has dominated the dodgers throughout his career and has impressive advanced stats with the ability to get big strikeouts. Kuroda has not pitched up to his capabilities against LA in the past, but has better numbers against them so far this year and on the road in general. With miller as the ump and his huge under lean and 65% strike rate, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck!

**chihawks** · 08-02-11, 03:11 PM

On the Balt/kc over.... there was RLM on the over today. Went up to 9.5 with majority on the under. BOL... on that pick balty/kc over.

**freshguy222** · 08-02-11, 03:12 PM

that is so not rlm
it would be rlm if the lien dropped to 8.5 with the bets on the over because the books would like more money on the over then, here it is the normal thing but a good sign tho

**chihawks** · 08-02-11, 03:18 PM

Yes...missed typed... thinking on the over pick. RLM on the under. Which I should have stated

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Play #2

AZ/SF under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Hudson v. Lincecum
Both pitchers have great advanced stats.
Both pitchers have solid head to head performance stats against the other teams' lineup
The ump is Vanover, with no real o/u lean but a 63.3% strike rate.
AZ has a hot offense, but I expect them to come down to earth without Drew. They will regress soon.
Both teams are top 10 in fielding (AZ is number one) and top 11 in bullpen, while the Giants are weak hitting at best.
We missed the under by one run in this series yesterday, but will give it a shot again today for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Baltimore/KC over (9) 1x (Locked)

Simon v. Chen
I think this one is going to end up getting juiced on the over -120 at some point later today or even go up to 9.5. That is why I am locking it in now.
Baltimore has not hit lefties very well in their last ten games, but that is deceiving because they only faced Romero who shut them out. Against Chen, that lineup is hitting over .330 BAA. Chen has poor advanced stats with a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or low 5's. Plus, he throws too many fly balls for my taste with a GB/FB under .9 and not enough strikeout with a low K% of 14%.
Simon actually has solid advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's. However, the KC bats have been hot lately and I expect that to continue tonight against Simon who has faced them once in the past and allowed a BAA over.300.
Baltimore is a bad team that can hit. They are ranked at the bottom of bullpen and fielding but top 11 in offense. That is a good sign for tonight. Similarly, the Royals have a solid offense (especially lately) with a bit better bullpen and just as bad defense. I expect sloppy defense to play a role tonight and get us some extra runs with these poor fielding teams.
No ump available at this time, but I will be busy at work and do not want to lose value on this play so I am locking in at 1x now. GL.

Play #4

Cincy/Houston under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Gotta run to work, but I like the under today's game much more than yesterday.
Even though Cincy kills lefties, Wandy has a nice history against their lineup (especially Jay Bruce) and his standard and advanced splits show he is a much better pitcher at home.
Bailey has dominated the Astros in his career and I think he is pitching better of late in a return to his early season form (he was dominant early this year).
I worry a bit about Houston's defense and bullpen, but I expect Wandy to put in at least a full 7 innings today and limit the Reds to three runs or less. I don't think the Astros AAA hitters (outside of El Cabayo) will hit much today off Bailey.
With Reyburn as the ump and his slight under lean, 8 run/game average and 63% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Philly/Rockies over (10) 1x (Locked)

At work on my phone so I cant give you a big writeup, but both pitchers have piss poor histories against these lineups and poor advanced stats with FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA above 4.5. Cook has even worse stats at home than away, with Kendrick performing worse on the road. The phillies are hitting well since the trade and the Rox will have Helton back after resting yesrerday (he has killed Kendrick throughout his career). Cook should return to poor form ater his great start last week against the punchless dodgers. I expect more offense out of Philly this 2h and that should be evident tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Latos has dominated the dodgers throughout his career and has impressive advanced stats with the ability to get big strikeouts. Kuroda has not pitched up to his capabilities against LA in the past, but has better numbers against them so far this year and on the road in general. With miller as the ump and his huge under lean and 65% strike rate, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck!

Card is final at the above six plays. We
should beat the closer in each game
except maybe the cards under. Good
luck tonight gentlemen

**BigDan** · 08-02-11, 05:00 PM

solid looking card bro...GL tonight

**shocktopme** · 08-02-11, 06:31 PM

.

Yeah card looks like a winner big time!!!!!!No spoilers tonight!!!!!!!Lets get this!!!!!!!!

**JR007** · 08-02-11, 06:38 PM

Padres 10 of the last 11 at Petco have gone over

Matchbook currently has the under at 6.5 -153

**pacocn** · 08-02-11, 07:03 PM

Lta, nice card bol to you

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Padres 10 of the last 11 at Petco have gone over

Matchbook currently has the under at 6.5 -153

Yeah, but pinny dropped it down to 6 so that does not worry me...I guess we will find out later...bol tonight.

**JR007** · 08-02-11, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yeah, but pinny dropped it down to 6 so that does not worry me...I guess we will find out later...bol tonight.

MATCHY DROPPED IT TO 6....i THINK PITCHER'S DUEL AS WELL

**GoggsViggs** · 08-02-11, 07:16 PM

Thx bro. BOL to you tonight too.

Thought u might enjoy this read during late night bottle feeding

http://plus.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/pro-sports/pbc-blog/110639-stats-geek-karstens-clone

**GGALLERT** · 08-02-11, 07:32 PM

LTA

Card looks very clean and ready to cash. I've been out of the game since Friday had Girl #2 join the family. In between the feedings and power naps, along with playing with my 2 year old, gotta mix in some college funds...

Good Luck tonight fellas.

**JR007** · 08-02-11, 07:34 PM

Just reviewed the killer sports database on totals: 6.5 and 10.5 still remain strong for the unders
6.5..... 101 overs..... 141 unders
10.5.....438 overs, 495 unders
7..... 309 over, 341 under
11..120, over .....152, under..33 push

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by GoggsViggs

Thx bro. BOL to you tonight too.

Thought u might enjoy this read during late night bottle feeding

http://plus.sites.post-gazette.com/i...karstens-clone

Thanks! Pretty much all of the Pirates pitchers are regressing as well, which is why I haven't played many Pirates unders in the last month.

Hope all is well with you and yours!

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by GGALLERT

Card looks very clean and ready to cash. I've been out of the game since Friday had Girl #2 join the family. In between the feedings and power naps, along with playing with my 2 year old, gotta mix in some college funds...

Good Luck tonight fellas.

Holy cow...wow! Congratulations GG, I knew I hadn't seen you in awhile...that's great news! We definitely welcome all dads in this thread. Good luck with everything...

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Just reviewed the killer sports database on totals: 6.5 and 10.5 still remain strong for the unders
6.5..... 101 overs..... 141 unders
10.5.....438 overs, 495 unders
7..... 309 over, 341 under
11..120, over .....152, under..33 push

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 10:59 PM

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cubs/Pirates under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Despite both teams coming into this game with five straight overs, the Cubs' six home runs on Tuesday night and Morton's shellacking by the Phillies in his most recent start, I really like this play and may add another unit tomorrow.
Both pitchers have the capability to throw ground balls, keep the ball in the ballpark and get crucial double plays. Morton is second in the league with a GB/FB of 3.3, but at home it's over 4. Garza rocks a 1.65 GB/FB, but over 1.7 on the road. I don't expect six home runs on Wednesday like we saw in the previous game, because I think both pitchers force some easy ground ball outs.
Both pitchers also have solid advanced stats. Morton has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the high 3's or low 4's, whereas Garza is a stud in the 3.1's. Plus, both pitchers have really high BABIP's over 3, but Morton is even higher at home and Garza higher on the road. This tells me both pitchers have been a bit unlucky in those situations and things will start to fall their way in the 2h of the season. With both pitchers having relatively low LOB%, I think we see better performances out of both pitchers over the next couple months and those solid performances should start Wednesday.
Everyone will be pounding the over in this one based on both teams' recent big totals, however, the stats don't show that either team has really been hitting all that well over the last 1o games or so.
Davidson is the ump assigned to this game and with his solid under lean and 63.5% strike rate, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 08-02-11, 11:11 PM

I have a lean in the under between Texas/Detroit tomorrow. However, neither pitcher has performed well against the opposing lineups in the past. Let's see where the line movement goes in that one. This is another nice public fade opportunity, but unlike the Cubs under, I'm not so sure we will any RLM. We'll see...