LTA's MLB Plays

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

fta, there is mild rlm in that Stros game, lets see how it
plays out. Public pounding Cincy

Lets see who the astros put on the field....the pitching matchup favors the astros here, but they still need to hit and field to win....lets keep our eyes peeled on this one and decide later tonight. Good luck today pac man!

Redscot · 08-01-11, 10:53 AM

7 1/2 in Milwaukee, what you thinking on that one LTA? Lots of potency in those lineups, with two of the NL's better pitchers going at in what should be playoff intensity.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

7 1/2 in Milwaukee, what you thinking on that one LTA? Lots of potency in those lineups, with two of the NL's best pitchers going at in what should be playoff intensity.

I generally do not like taking unders in a hitters park like milwaukee against two top 10 offenses and weaker bullpens. The starting pitching should be solid and I expect great performances out of greinke the rest of the season, but the under is probably a pass for me today.

Although, without weeks in the brwers lineup, they are weaker offensively and I could see a low scoring game, still probably a pass...lets see where the line movement takes this one. Good luck if you play it!

JR007 · 08-01-11, 11:54 AM

Lta, no reflection on you or your capping, just that everyone ..has a "different situation"..some bet on-line, others have locals, that set limits,(how much you lose per week etc)....depends on your resources

BigDan · 08-01-11, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

7 1/2 in Milwaukee, what you thinking on that one LTA? Lots of potency in those lineups, with two of the NL's better pitchers going at in what should be playoff intensity.

actually not a lot of potency after fielder/bruan in mil lineup atm, lots of holes and Carp has never had mmuch problem with Braun. Mil under have been like gold as of late as they are winning with pitching. Cards lineup wasnt connecting much against a guy they typically have great success against last night, Grienke in good form and like you said this has the makings on playoff intensity baseball. grabbed at un 7.5-107 cause i thought there was a chance we lost the hook or it got really juiced today. also worth mentioning that both these teams now have Plus pens and are capable of really shortening the game..there are some bad over type umps lurking tonight but had to pull trigger early as im not looking to get juiced or lose that hook that could be really important.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

actually not a lot of potency after fielder/bruan in mil lineup atm, lots of holes and Carp has never had mmuch problem with Braun. Mil under have been like gold as of late as they are winning with pitching. Cards lineup wasnt connecting much against a guy they typically have great success against last night, Grienke in good form and like you said this has the makings on playoff intensity baseball. grabbed at un 7.5-107 cause i thought there was a chance we lost the hook or it got really juiced today. also worth mentioning that both these teams now have Plus pens and are capable of really shortening the game..there are some bad over type umps lurking tonight but had to pull trigger early as im not looking to get juiced or lose that hook that could be really important.

Great info and analysis as always. Im going to keep this one as a lean for now and see where the total ends up, the lineups and the ump before deciding. Thanks for weighing in...good luck today!

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Lta, no reflection on you or your capping, just that everyone ..has a "different situation"..some bet on-line, others have locals, that set limits,(how much you lose per week etc)....depends on your resources

So true...good luck today!

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 12:38 PM

I find it really odd that the Reds are only -118 for this series against the astros.

That small price tells me the books would not be surprised if the astros stole this series. In order to do so, the stros will need to win tonight.

Interesting....

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I find it really odd that the Reds are only -118 for this series against the astros.

That small price tells me the books would not be surprised if the astros stole this series. In order to do so, the stros will need to win tonight.

Interesting....

wouldnt surprise me at all. gotta think the kids hou ends up plugging in will prob play their asses off at the least. huge pitching adv for hou tonight, reds despite the sweep of sf is not really playing great ball, even committing a lot more errors than they characteristically do. Not sure i got the stones to play them at so low a price but that may actually be the point here.

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I generally do not like taking unders in a hitters park like milwaukee against two top 10 offenses and weaker bullpens.

Weaker bullpens? Seriously? Brewers have a top 5 bullpen in baseball

Brewers also don't even sniff the top 10 offensively without weeks. Even with weeks they rank 12th in wOBA

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by God1

Weaker bullpens? Seriously? Brewers have a top 5 bullpen in baseball

Brewers also don't even sniff the top 10 offensively without weeks. Even with weeks they rank 12th in wOBA

Cards pen ranked 23 and brewers currently at 11. Agreed that the weeks injury hurts the brewers offense big time...craig counsel just not getting it done. We'll see...I lean under but I want to look at a few more factors like I mentioned above. Bol if you play it...

God1 · 08-01-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Cards pen ranked 23 and brewers currently at 11.

Brewers are 4th in SIERA. stop looking at ERA it's useless

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Cards pen ranked 23 and brewers currently at 11. Agreed that the weeks injury hurts the brewers offense big time...craig counsel just not getting it done. We'll see...I lean under but I want to look at a few more factors like I mentioned above. Bol if you play it...

you have to rethink Cards pen brother. Nothing like it was for the 1st half of the season. Franklin who was horrible, gone, talbot and miller our lefty "specialist" both horrible both gone. Lance Lynn is a absolute stud check his numbers, Rzep new lefty in town with great stuff and more than capable of getting out left and right handers, McClellan back to the pen where he belongs (even tho he did give up the bomb to soriano in his 2nd inning of work)., Motte has a plus fastball owns a whip barely over one and like a lot of these guys ks about a batter a inning, Dotel is still a guy that can get it done and is a huge upgrade from Bautista (also gone), Boggs is a headcase but capable with 2 plus pitches, Im saying bro you cant go off their overall pen numbers on the season as i think you would be hard pressed not to have these guys in the top half of the league after the moves they have recently made from the trades, Lynn being called up, and McClellan back to pen this is not the same group anymore.

Redscot · 08-01-11, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

actually not a lot of potency after fielder/bruan in mil lineup atm, lots of holes and Carp has never had mmuch problem with Braun. Mil under have been like gold as of late as they are winning with pitching. Cards lineup wasnt connecting much against a guy they typically have great success against last night, Grienke in good form and like you said this has the makings on playoff intensity baseball. grabbed at un 7.5-107 cause i thought there was a chance we lost the hook or it got really juiced today. also worth mentioning that both these teams now have Plus pens and are capable of really shortening the game..there are some bad over type umps lurking tonight but had to pull trigger early as im not looking to get juiced or lose that hook that could be really important.

Very true Dan, I should have been more clear about my "lot of potency" remark, it was really a general comment regarding the two teams combined ability to put up runs.

Looking at the last two weeks the Cards are leading the NL in runs scored by a fair amount. On the flip side something that really stand's out about the Brewcrew last 2 weeks is a 5% BB rate, and terrible obp % and it is not like they have been unlucky with batted balls .305 babip. They have also been hitting the ball an inordinate amount on the ground which definitely feeds into Carpenter's strengths as well.

I lean under here as well, although haven't committed. GL on your play man

BigDan · 08-01-11, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Very true Dan, I should have been more clear about my "lot of potency" remark, it was really a general comment regarding the two teams combined ability to put up runs.

Looking at the last two weeks the Cards are leading the NL in runs scored by a fair amount. On the flip side something that really stand's out about the Brewcrew last 2 weeks is a 5% BB rate, and terrible obp % and it is not like they have been unlucky with batted balls .305 babip. They have also been hitting the ball an inordinate amount on the ground which definitely feeds into Carpenter's strengths as well.

I lean under here as well, although haven't committed. GL on your play man

Cards have also had the adv of feasting off subpar pitchers as of late, dont get me wrong i like our offense a lot but i dont expect a lot of fireworks against Greinke or that pen. with Weeks out it exposes a mil lineup that already had holes....

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by God1

Brewers are 4th in SIERA. stop looking at ERA it's useless

I incorporate all advanced stats, including SIERA, into my capping/model. I agree that the Cards bullpen is much improved.

However, is Salas for real and can he duplicate his first half success?

Fact is the cards only had 36 holds in the 1h. Can Mcellan regain his bullpen form? I like Rzepsynski and Dotel so that should help. We will see. The cards improved but they still need to gel. That said, however, Dave Duncan does give me the confidence to get these guys in their roles and performing. Salas will be key...you can't put Dotel in the closing role. I did like the cards bullpen moves and would be happy to discuss more in depth after work once I get to my computer...

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

you have to rethink Cards pen brother. Nothing like it was for the 1st half of the season. Franklin who was horrible, gone, talbot and miller our lefty "specialist" both horrible both gone. Lance Lynn is a absolute stud check his numbers, Rzep new lefty in town with great stuff and more than capable of getting out left and right handers, McClellan back to the pen where he belongs (even tho he did give up the bomb to soriano in his 2nd inning of work)., Motte has a plus fastball owns a whip barely over one and like a lot of these guys ks about a batter a inning, Dotel is still a guy that can get it done and is a huge upgrade from Bautista (also gone), Boggs is a headcase but capable with 2 plus pitches, Im saying bro you cant go off their overall pen numbers on the season as i think you would be hard pressed not to have these guys in the top half of the league after the moves they have recently made from the trades, Lynn being called up, and McClellan back to pen this is not the same group anymore.

I like the bullpen moves the cards made as I mentioned above. Lets see how they perform over the next couple weeks...

BigDan · 08-01-11, 03:15 PM

honestly im not 100% on Salas. he seems to be tough minded but not really true closer stuff imo. his fastball does seem to be sneaky fast most times but when Phillips crushes a fastball on him and after says he was looking off speed i worry a little. Honestly i think Lynn should be the closer but i dont see Tony making the move, but this kid has closer stuff no doubt and is a bulldog the way he attacks ppl.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 05:36 PM

So far we have 2 plays on the dodgers under and giants under...looks as though we will beat the closer in both.

Remaining leans:

Houston ML
Oakland ML
Cards/mil under

Doubtful that I play houston, because of the line movement. Oakland lean looks strong right now....cards under undecided.

Bol tonight...

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 06:13 PM

Might place a $20 action wager on houston - not for the records...would hate to miss out if they win...whole world on cincy...

BigDan · 08-01-11, 06:19 PM

GL tonight

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

GL tonight

Same to you

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Might place a $20 action wager on houston - not for the records...would hate to miss out if they win...whole world on cincy...

No play at all on this game, but really interested to see what happens.

Only other possible play is oakland tonight...I am likely to make that our third and final play for tonight...gl

BigDan · 08-01-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No play at all on this game, but really interested to see what happens.

Only other possible play is oakland tonight...I am likely to make that our third and final play for tonight...gl

doing better than me, think im up to 11-12 plays so far.

blumpkin · 08-01-11, 07:12 PM

LTA what units are you putting on those late night unders? Really liking the sf U. waiting to see if the price will move.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by blumpkin

LTA what units are you putting on those late night unders? Really liking the sf U. waiting to see if the price will move.

Both are 1x plays....see my writeups above...bol...

BigDan · 08-01-11, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by blumpkin

LTA what units are you putting on those late night unders? Really liking the sf U. waiting to see if the price will move.

price moving against you bro, it has been slowly all day, i got it at +102 , juice moving to the under pretty quick now, if you gonna play it the longer you wait the more you gonna pay.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

doing better than me, think im up to 11-12 plays so far.

Wow!!! Good luck

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

price moving against you bro, it has been slowly all day, i got it at +102 , juice moving to the under pretty quick now, if you gonna play it the longer you wait the more you gonna pay.

Glad I locked both in last night...I should beat the closer in both...

BigDan · 08-01-11, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Wow!!! Good luck

volume bettor bro...

think it comes from college hoops where i typically play 15 +gms on a sat and anywhere from 5-9 any given night of the week. normally it serves me better if i like it to play it cause when i start scratching there just as good a chance i scratch the wrong ones. this is the most for weekday baseball that i remember, a day with a short card none the less

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/1/11

Play #1

Padres/Dodgers under (6) 1x (Locked)

Luebke v. Kershaw
Luebke - I have not been a believer in Luebke and refused to back him until this game. This will be his seventh start and I'm going to give him a shot here. The guy has great numbers so far with a FIP of 2.80, xFIP of 2.89, tERA of 2.73 and a SIERA of 2.61. These are top 10 MLB numbers, but again, this former Supplemental First Round Pick from 2007, has only 6 starts so far this year and his BABIP is really low at .240 overall and .228 on the road. However, with a K% of 28%, a WHIP of .095 and a GB/FB, I think he limits the puchless Dodgers on Monday (Dodgers hitting .202 against lefties L10). Lifetime, the Dodgers lineup is only hitting .105 against Luebke in 19 AB's.
Kershaw is stud. Even though the Padres hit better against lefties, I don't think they touch Kershaw tomorrow. Kershaw has limited the Padres lineup to a .226 lifetime average in 93 AB's. Kershaw is a top 10 MLB guy in FIP with a 2.40, xFIP with a 2.65, tERA with a 2.45 and SIERA with a 2.58 plus a K% of 28.6% and a WHIP of 1.04. Based on the foregoing, I don't expect the Padres to get much Kershaw.
Chavez-Ravine is one of the better pitchers parks and I expect a 3-1 type game with the Dodgers winning.
Even though the Padres traded Adams, they kept Bell and still have a top 5 bullpen and remain a top 15 MLB fielding team. Their offense of course, was not improved by trades and remain the 29th ranked offense in the league.
The Dodgers have top 15 MLB bullpen and defense, with an offense that is around 25th in the league.
Based on the combination of superior starting pitching, solid bullpens, solid defense and weak offense, I think we cash this low-total under. Plus, the rest of the market is at 5.5 with juice on the over and one of my locals as 6 at (-110) odds so I like that number and figured I would jump on it now in case I can't get this number later on Monday. I like the under in this spot for 1x. GL.

Play #2

Diamondbacks/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Kennedy v. Cain. I'm a big fan of this pitching matchup. Two guys at 26 years old and pitching great. I'm jumping at this one at plus odds now rather than wait for a possible 6.5 that I do not think will materialize.
Kennedy is pitching great with a FIP of 3.46, xFIP of 3.47, tERA of 4.24 and SIERA of 3.45, WHIP of 1.12, K% of 20.9, GB/FB over 1, LOB% over 76% and BAA of .225. Those numbers are extremely solid and when you add that to his dominating history against the Giants holding that lineup to a .181 BAA in 129 AB's (8 scoreless innings earlier this year), I don't see anything pointing to the over here. I don't think Kennedy is hurt pitching on the road in this start because San Francisco is generally a pitchers park.
On the other side, Cain is one of the best as well with a FIP of 2.9, xFIP of 3.59, tERA of 3.31 and SIERA of 3.57. Cain also has a high K% over 19%, WHIP of 1.09, LOB of 72.6% and GB/FB over 1. He too has had success against Arizona in general holding that lineup to a .249 BAA in 229 AB's. Plus, in his last game he was knocked around a little bit in Arizona and I expect revenge to play a factor here. Cain will be ready for this start.
Even though AZ posts a top 10 offense, I think they are due for a regression without Drew. They have been on a tear with Upton and Young leading the way, however, Cain has limited Young to a BAA under .200 (Upton has hit him well though).
Regardless, both the Giants and Diamondbacks rank top 10 in fielding and bullpen (AZ best ranked defense right now while Giants second best bullpen). I think this is a huge advantage. We always look for unders with weak hitting (see Giants ranked bottom 20's) good bullpens and good fielding. We have all those factors in this game and I'm rolling under for 1x at plus odds. GL.

Play #3

Oakland -1 RL (0.50x ML (-123) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+145))

The only thing I don't like about this play is the unfamiliarity factor with Beavan having never faced Oakland which favors Beavan here. Other than that, Oakland is the play in this spot and, even though it reduced my odds at cashing, I'm going to play them on the -1 RL.
According to the numbers, Beavan is just not the stud he appears on his face. He has a poor FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the high 4's or above. His BABIP is .240 which says he has been getting lucky for his success. The guy has potential, but just has not gotten it done so far. He throws too many fly balls, for too many home runs and has a weak K%.
On the other side, Cahill is one of the best groundball pitchers as evidenced by a GB/FB over 2.2. He has a solid SIERA at 3.8, with a K% around 17.5% which is great for a ground ball pitcher. Plus, he has a solid history against this Mariners lineup holding them to a .250 BAA. and a career ERA under 2.5. After a 10 run egg against the Yankees, he came back strong to limit TB to no runs through 7.1 innings. I think we see another solid performance tonight.
Oakland has been raking. When combined with the expected dominance of Cahill tonight, I think we see the hot bats of Oakland run roughshot over Seattle tonight. I'm rolling with the A's on the -1RL for 1x. GL.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 10:00 PM

Ugh...Cahill shellacked.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 10:05 PM

I would play the White Sox ML tomorrow, if not for the fact that the Yankees have beaten lefties at higher than a 60% clip over the last couple years.

Love The Action · 08-01-11, 11:00 PM

MLB 8/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Garcia v. Marcum.
Both pitchers have above-average advanced stats with solid histories against the opposing lineups.
Garcia really impresses me with FIP around 2.9, xFIP around 3.12, tERA around 2.97 and a SIERA around 3.21. Those numbers are very impressive. Marcum, on the other hand, is generally in the mid 3s for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA
Milwaukee suffers from a lack of offense without Weeks.
St. Louis has a potent offense right now, but Marcum has limited them in the past to a BAA of .220 in 59 AB's and OPS around .546.
Garcia has limited this Brewers lineup to a .220 BAA in 123 AB's and a an OPS around 6.
Both team employ an improved bullpen.
I'm rolling with the for 1x.

Sorry about the short writeup here, but I'm exhausted and want to get to bed. BOL tonight and tomorrow....

jimmcc01 · 08-01-11, 11:25 PM

Hey LTA, thanks for the work that you do.

Curious... do you have any stats on O/U after all star break. Looks like most games are going over. hard to take any under, even with the best pitchers.

Also, how much do you look at public plays? and game 1 of a series when it comes to public plays.

thanks for any input.